Re: Peavy High on Cubs Wish List

[BigbadB]

I'm pretty sure the other guy who broadcasts on this station at this time is Philly Billy Werndell. I didn't hear his voice. Is he the one they are talking about being fired?

[AZCub]

Am I the only one who finds the contradicting reports not only to be expected, but to be encouraging?

 

That depends…are you encouraged when a woman hits on you at the bar, then starts making out with your friend, then tells you she likes you?

 

Are you kidding? Sounds like someone I'd bring back to my apartment.

 

Exactly.

[Hall7810]

I'm pretty sure the other guy who broadcasts on this station at this time is Philly Billy Werndell. I didn't hear his voice. Is he the one they are talking about being fired?

 

Him and Joe Tutino were let go by 1090.

[BigbadB]

I'm pretty sure the other guy who broadcasts on this station at this time is Philly Billy Werndell. I didn't hear his voice. Is he the one they are talking about being fired?

 

Him and Joe Tutino were let go by 1090.

 

That sucks. I liked Philly Billy.

[UMFan83]

Even as the working day ended last night, XX Sports 1090-AM's Web site was hyping Bill Werndl as "simply - the hottest 'overnight sensation' in Southern California talk radio." Too hot to handle, apparently. Werndl, whose gravelly voice and "Philly Billy" accent and sharp-stick opinions indeed made him a staple of the genre in San Diego, confirmed yesterday afternoon that he was suddenly "let go" by the station. Likewise jettisoned was half of another 1090 sports-talk team, Joe Tutino. "I'm in a fog," Werndl said yesterday. "I don't understand it. I'm just stunned." Werndl, who declined to discuss the reasons he was given for the dismissal, was teamed with Darren Smith in the 3-7 p.m. weekday slot while Tutino paired with John Kentera the previous three hours. --

[umpunk]

To make sure I'm caught up to date here:

 

- We have numerous posters listening to a San Diego radio station who fired a DJ today.

- There are a few posters who enjoy, pardon my language, "slutty" bar women (well, who doesn't really)

- Jim Hendry is being interviewed by some random comcast reporter and that interview is not on tv nor the radio

 

Am I correct in this? Yeash.....

[Jehrico]

Am I the only one who finds the contradicting reports not only to be expected, but to be encouraging?

 

That depends…are you encouraged when a woman hits on you at the bar, then starts making out with your friend, then tells you she likes you?

There's one of two situations here...either they're really closer or they're cooling off. If they're closer, you're going to get two stories...those with inside information sharing the truth, then the "insiders" whose job it is to leak what the organization wants leaked. They don't want SD to know they're close, hoping they'll lower their demands, so they "leak" that they're cooling off. On the other hand, if they really are cooling off, they wouldn't be feeding the false news and there wouldn't be conflicting reports from our sides. Everyone seems to be forgetting what the Cubs should be saying if the negotiations are going their way, rather than what they want them to say.

[BigbadB]

Even as the working day ended last night, XX Sports 1090-AM's Web site was hyping Bill Werndl as "simply - the hottest 'overnight sensation' in Southern California talk radio." Too hot to handle, apparently. Werndl, whose gravelly voice and "Philly Billy" accent and sharp-stick opinions indeed made him a staple of the genre in San Diego, confirmed yesterday afternoon that he was suddenly "let go" by the station. Likewise jettisoned was half of another 1090 sports-talk team, Joe Tutino. "I'm in a fog," Werndl said yesterday. "I don't understand it. I'm just stunned." Werndl, who declined to discuss the reasons he was given for the dismissal, was teamed with Darren Smith in the 3-7 p.m. weekday slot while Tutino paired with John Kentera the previous three hours. --

 

Thanks for this post. Wow. That really sucks. I'm guessing these guys were being too critical of San Diego sports and someone pressured them into being let go. I'm not familiar with Tutino, but I really like Werndl. Never would have guessed that spelling.

[CubColtPacer]

Chalk me up as one person who would feel that DeRosa would be the straw that broke the camel's back on this one if he were included as mostly an addition and not a substitution.

 

First, let's assume DeRo is an addition. We're sending him to Philly for Happ, Pie to Baltimore for Olsen. We're packaging those with Vitters and Marshall to San Diego. I personally don't believe that will ever happen, but for the sake of the discussion let's assume the reports are correct and that is around the deal being discussed.

 

Let's look at 3 things-what that deal would do for the Cubs in the regular season, what it would do for them in the postseason, and what it would do for them post 2009.

 

In the regular season, the pros of getting Peavy would be:

upgrade from Jason Marquis. This is a likely 1.5 point or so of ERA upgrade over 200 innings. That is a huge upgrade.

 

The cons of doing the deal would be:

loss of a 5th starter. A 5th starter with Harden and Z in the rotation probably would make around 10 starts next year. Marshall is around a 4.1 ERA as a starter over the last 2 years. Gaudin is probably around a 4.5 or 4.6 type of starter in Wrigley Field. So that's a .4 decrease in ERA over 10 starts or approximately 60 innings.

 

Marshall would also likely pitch around 25 innings out of the bullpen, and because of favorable matchups he can probably pitch a 3.5 or 3.6 out of the pen (he's a career 3.03 out of the pen in less than 30 innings). The Cubs would probably have Kevin Hart fill that spot who would likely give around a 5 ERA. So that's a 1.4 ERA loss over 30 innings, only half of which are in any kind of leverage situation.

 

A platoon at 2B can probably duplicate DeRosa's production. Therefore the loss at 2B is going to come in 3 ways:

1) Much easier to put in a reliever to shut down either Fontenot/right handed platoon partner in the 6th or 7th. It's typically too early for the Cubs to substitute the other one in (because what happens in the next at-bat). So there will be more wasted at-bats in a platoon situation.

2) Flexibility. First, the Cubs will have to sign a player who can backup both 3B and the corner OF positions (or let Cedeno play 3B when Aramis isn't playing, which isn't a great option). Before, an injury to LF, RF, 3B, or 2B made Fontenot get more at-bats. Now, those at-bats will have to go to whoever is the backup at that position, and it is a lot harder to get 3 quality backups than just 1. Plus, it's much easier to ride hot hands when you have a starter quality versatile player who can effectively bench whoever is in a slump.

3) Obviously the simple loss to the bench in pinch-hitting situations from Fontenot to whoever will be on the bench.

 

Pie unless he hits his potential upside is not a huge loss to the team as a role player. My feeling the Cubs could find someone to fill that particular role on the team.

 

So that's the regular season impact of Peavy coming. Let's look at the postseason impact next:

 

Pros:

Peavy is still a big upgrade over the worse pitcher of Dempster/Lilly. Not as much as in the regular season with Marquis, but still a big upgrade.

 

Cons:

1 and 3 from the 2B situation above. Neither one is a huge con though.

 

Now, let's look after 2009

Pros: Peavy's contract accelerates, but he's still a great pitcher.

 

Cons:

Cubs lose their best trade chip in Vitters.

No 2 draft picks from DeRosa leaving.

Harden is likely gone. The Cubs aren't likely to pay another huge contract to a starter with how much money will be in the rotation in 2010. Peavy coming here makes it very likely that 2009 is Harden's last as a Cub. This will hopefully be offset slightly by getting picks from him leaving.

No potential cheap starter in Marshall or potential upside of Pie being a cheap OF.

 

I think Peavy is potentially worth the value we would be giving up to get him. However, the fact that we have 4 other capable starters makes me very wary about trading a huge positional piece that offers easy depth along with the best pitching depth the Cubs have. The ideal team might be better with Peavy, but 1 or 2 injuries from any of 8-10 people and the Cubs would have been better off the other way. If DeRosa is out of the deal, then the loss of the pitching depth and trade chips are offset by Peavy being a huge boost to that pitching staff and it becomes a good trade. If DeRosa is in the trade, then any injury will really hurt the offense, as opposed to just hurting it a little bit by being able to plug Fontenot in at 2B and DeRosa almost anywhere in the field.

 

Obviously, Peavy is still an amazing pitcher, so it really doesn't have much capability of being a terrible deal. A talent like that eases a lot of pain. But I think DeRosa being added into the deal should make them say no. It will be a little different if DeRosa being added makes Marshall or Vitters disappear from the deal though.

[cubswin2009]

To make sure I'm caught up to date here:

 

- We have numerous posters listening to a San Diego radio station who fired a DJ today.

- There are a few posters who enjoy, pardon my language, "slutty" bar women (well, who doesn't really)

- Jim Hendry is being interviewed by some random comcast reporter and that interview is not on tv nor the radio

 

Am I correct in this? Yeash.....

And Meph is still disliked here

[weatherdood]

Just read those updates. Worried about dealing Guzman? We've been worried about dealing him away for the past 5 years now. Deal him, who cares.

 

Exactly..He hasn't done anything for us since he's been here. Always hurt or was never that effective when he was healthy..Might be a bullpen guy down the line, thats about it..But you gotta trade him if its for Peavy

 

By not doing anything for us, I'm guessing you're referring to the lack of a single "W" at the major league level. Hendry cannot be this stupid....please tell me... Hendry cannot be this stupid to let a guy with ZERO wins in the majors and a history of injuries stand in the way of Jake freaking Peavy

[CUBZ99]

Must not be too close, they just had an update on XX1090 and there was no mention of the Peavy trade.

[cubswin2009]

Must not be too close, they just had an update on XX1090 and there was no mention of the Peavy trade.

The deal is done but they don't want to announce it tonight to pay respect to "Philly Billy".

[Mephistopheles]

To make sure I'm caught up to date here:

 

- We have numerous posters listening to a San Diego radio station who fired a DJ today.

- There are a few posters who enjoy, pardon my language, "slutty" bar women (well, who doesn't really)

- Jim Hendry is being interviewed by some random comcast reporter and that interview is not on tv nor the radio

 

Am I correct in this? Yeash.....

And Meph is still disliked here

 

i take youre not new around here baseballnumbers

[cubswin2009]

To make sure I'm caught up to date here:

 

- We have numerous posters listening to a San Diego radio station who fired a DJ today.

- There are a few posters who enjoy, pardon my language, "slutty" bar women (well, who doesn't really)

- Jim Hendry is being interviewed by some random comcast reporter and that interview is not on tv nor the radio

 

Am I correct in this? Yeash.....

And Meph is still disliked here

 

i take youre not new around here baseballnumbers

Half this thread is devoted to you. I know that.

[CUBZ99]

Must not be too close, they just had an update on XX1090 and there was no mention of the Peavy trade.

The deal is done but they don't want to announce it tonight to pay respect to "Philly Billy".

 

haha

 

Kevin Towers had gathering of local media, and Towers feels better today than he did yesterday. It will be done by Thursday. :o

Edited December 10, 2008 by CUBZ99

[mdwilla]

LAS VEGAS - It might be inching toward a deal instead of taking a big leap, but Padres general manager Kevin Towers said Tuesday evening that a deal involving Jake Peavy to the Cubs "looks more likely today than yesterday."

 

Towers confirmed that he met with Cubs general manager Jim Hendry earlier in the day Tuesday and would again later Tuesday evening as they continue discussions regarding the 2007 Cy Young winner and the compensation the Padres would receive.

 

Towers had the sense that Hendry needed to move "some money" in order to get the deal off the ground. That could mean moving pitcher Jason Marquis and his $9.875 million contract for 2009 and/or possibly another player.

 

Towers also indicated that a third team would be needed to facilitate a deal and possibly even a fourth team and that a deal, if it's agreed upon, wouldn't be announced until after Thursday's Rule 5 Draft.

 

http://hotstove.mlblogs.com/archives/2008/12/getting_closer_to_a_deal_for_p.html

[Sever82]

http://hotstove.mlblogs.com/archives/2008/12/getting_closer_to_a_deal_for_p.html

 

Looks like this is almost done basically

[Mephistopheles]

So some sources: The deal has progressed today.

So some sources: The deal has regressed today.

 

Conclusion: Nothing happened today, good or bad.

[Cubswin11]

LAS VEGAS - It might be inching toward a deal instead of taking a big leap, but Padres general manager Kevin Towers said Tuesday evening that a deal involving Jake Peavy to the Cubs "looks more likely today than yesterday."

 

Towers confirmed that he met with Cubs general manager Jim Hendry earlier in the day Tuesday and would again later Tuesday evening as they continue discussions regarding the 2007 Cy Young winner and the compensation the Padres would receive.

 

Towers had the sense that Hendry needed to move "some money" in order to get the deal off the ground. That could mean moving pitcher Jason Marquis and his $9.875 million contract for 2009 and/or possibly another player.

 

Towers also indicated that a third team would be needed to facilitate a deal and possibly even a fourth team and that a deal, if it's agreed upon, wouldn't be announced until after Thursday's Rule 5 Draft.

 

http://hotstove.mlblogs.com/archives/2008/12/getting_closer_to_a_deal_for_p.html

Not much that we didn't already know(move Marquis/Derosa/find 3rd team), but at least they are still talking and Towers seems to think they are closer to a deal, interesting that they would wait until thursday to announce a trade. This is just nerve racking :banghead:

[CUBZ99]

So some sources: The deal has progressed today.

So some sources: The deal has regressed today.

 

Conclusion: Nothing happened today, good or bad.

 

I take Kevin Towers and Jim Hendry's word before I believe unnamed sources. The 1090 reporter that talked to Towers said it will get done by Thursday.

[mdwilla]

Towers mentions there meeting again tonight , I have a feeling this thread tops a 100 pages before the night is over.

[Cubswin11]

So some sources: The deal has progressed today.

So some sources: The deal has regressed today.

 

Conclusion: Nothing happened today, good or bad.

Pretty much and I think the lack of information made the media jump to their own conclusions. Now that it was reported that the GM's were in mandatory meetings this morning it's unlikely that Hendry/Towers had real significant talks today and things should likely heat up tonight/tomorrow, IMO.

[BigbadB]

LAS VEGAS - It might be inching toward a deal instead of taking a big leap, but Padres general manager Kevin Towers said Tuesday evening that a deal involving Jake Peavy to the Cubs "looks more likely today than yesterday."

 

Towers confirmed that he met with Cubs general manager Jim Hendry earlier in the day Tuesday and would again later Tuesday evening as they continue discussions regarding the 2007 Cy Young winner and the compensation the Padres would receive.

 

Towers had the sense that Hendry needed to move "some money" in order to get the deal off the ground. That could mean moving pitcher Jason Marquis and his $9.875 million contract for 2009 and/or possibly another player.

 

Towers also indicated that a third team would be needed to facilitate a deal and possibly even a fourth team and that a deal, if it's agreed upon, wouldn't be announced until after Thursday's Rule 5 Draft.

 

http://hotstove.mlblogs.com/archives/2008/12/getting_closer_to_a_deal_for_p.html

Not much that we didn't already know(move Marquis/Derosa/find 3rd team), but at least they are still talking and Towers seems to think they are closer to a deal, interesting that they would wait until thursday to announce a trade. This is just nerve racking :banghead:

 

How about before the Bears game rather than during?

[Mephistopheles]

THe biggest development is Jake Peavy went to a Brooks and Dunn concert.