Cubs acquire Kevin Gregg for Jose Ceda

[17 Seconds]

Just so we're clear, the deal really is (from our perspective):

 

Gregg for Ceda and Wood.

 

That's an undeniably, unmistakably, irrefutably, bad thing for the Cubs.

 

Then state it as the deal is:

 

Gregg for Ceda + Wood and a 4 year guaranteed high dollar contract.

How about:

 

1 year of Gregg as closer

four first round draft picks

$35M to spend elsewhere over 4 years

 

vs

 

Ceda + Wood

 

Does that make anyone feel any better?

 

No.

 

Trading Ceda for Gregg wasn't the only alternative to not signing Wood.

 

What are some realistic alternatives that can be had? Perhaps comparing them will be helpful.

 

We're not in contact with other GMs so there is no way we could possibly know who is available. That's kind of a silly thing to ask.

 

Then it is kind of silly to say that there are better alternatives.

 

A) He never said there were better alternatives

 

B) Just because you can't give examples of something doesn't mean it's not true

[David]

I really don't think Ceda has/had as much value as some of you guys are trying to suggest.

 

Do you think he has more value than Gregg?

 

Maybe, but it's certainly not a no-brainer. And it's not by much, if he does. I'm not sure what all the hand-wringing is about other than maybe misdirected emotions having to do with letting Wood go.

 

Just my opinion, though.

[Guest]

Ceda's greatest value was probably as a Cub. I'm not sure he'll ever be good, but Gregg isn't.

[David]

Ceda's greatest value was probably as a Cub. I'm not sure he'll ever be good, but Gregg isn't.

 

 

If you say so.

[Mephistopheles]

he's not good.

[Guest]

he's not good.

True.

 

He's also not bad.

[David]

He's good enough.

[davearm2]

Possibly. I think holding onto Ceda for one more season and let him either establish in the majors or get a full season of relief and ripping up hitters would have allowed the team to get more for him. I think that while having him start helped develop him quite a bit, it depressed his value because of the numbers below what he was capable of doing. Don't get me wrong, having him start was the right thing...it's just that it didn't help his value this offseason.

 

I'm not sure what his real value was in the marketplace. He hasn't really had a chance to establish himself as a lockdown reliever yet, so he couldn't really be priced as such in the market. We know he has that potential, but potential doesn't have the value of demonstrated performance (with that same potential). I wish we could have gotten the deal done with Ascanio or someone else, but I can see this deal working out pretty well in the long run. Things have to break right for it to come out real positively, but I'd wager we come out at least even in the long run.

 

All that said, I would have been much happier if we had added to it and gotten Hermida, as well.

That's the real shame here, IMO.

 

If there was a deal to be made for Hermida, you've got to think they'd have done it all at once.

[cubsfan26]

Just so we're clear, the deal really is (from our perspective):

 

Gregg for Ceda and Wood.

 

That's an undeniably, unmistakably, irrefutably, bad thing for the Cubs.

 

Then state it as the deal is:

 

Gregg for Ceda + Wood and a 4 year guaranteed high dollar contract.

How about:

 

1 year of Gregg as closer

four first round draft picks

$35M to spend elsewhere over 4 years

 

vs

 

Ceda + Wood

 

Does that make anyone feel any better?

 

No.

 

Trading Ceda for Gregg wasn't the only alternative to not signing Wood.

 

 

Yes, but was their a better alternative? We could have went on the free agent market, and signed guys for 3 years at 5-6m per year to replace Wood. Otherwise I don't see how we could have gotten a good late inning reliever with closer experience at one year and 4-5m(plus potential draft picks at the end of the season) for less then Jose Ceda. I can't think of a alternative situation that would be better then this. Yeah I know we could have just went with the young guys. But what contending major league team is gonna go with guys who have very little experience in important 7th and 8th inning roles?

Edited November 14, 2008 by cubsfan26

[Mephistopheles]

he's not good.

True.

 

He's also not bad.

 

 

Neither was Howry. Besides we could actually use Michael Wuertz and have a Kevin Gregg without trading Jose Ceda who has a chance to be a Carlos Marmol.

 

And we could still not need to replace Wood if that was the idea.

Edited November 14, 2008 by Mephistopheles

[davearm2]

25 million*

 

and countless blown saves.

If you can't count any higher than a 2 year old, I suppose.

[cubsfan26]

Possibly. I think holding onto Ceda for one more season and let him either establish in the majors or get a full season of relief and ripping up hitters would have allowed the team to get more for him. I think that while having him start helped develop him quite a bit, it depressed his value because of the numbers below what he was capable of doing. Don't get me wrong, having him start was the right thing...it's just that it didn't help his value this offseason.

 

I'm not sure what his real value was in the marketplace. He hasn't really had a chance to establish himself as a lockdown reliever yet, so he couldn't really be priced as such in the market. We know he has that potential, but potential doesn't have the value of demonstrated performance (with that same potential). I wish we could have gotten the deal done with Ascanio or someone else, but I can see this deal working out pretty well in the long run. Things have to break right for it to come out real positively, but I'd wager we come out at least even in the long run.

 

All that said, I would have been much happier if we had added to it and gotten Hermida, as well.

 

 

I really want Hermida as well, but I read earlier today that the Marlins won't trade him unless their overwhelmed. I don't think we have the prospects to do that. So it looks like were gonna have some veteran like Abreu or Ibanez in RF.

Edited November 14, 2008 by cubsfan26

[David]

Jose Ceda = Roberto Novoa who eats more junk food

[davearm2]

Did you miss this story?

 

Pitcher Kerry Wood and the Cubs will part ways after 14 years with the organization, general manager Jim Hendry said today.

Wood, who came up in the Cubs organization as one of the team's most heralded prospects ever, had the longest tenure of any Cubs player on the 2008 roster.

 

Earlier today, the Cubs acquired right-handed reliever Kevin Gregg from Florida on Thursday to plug a hole in the bullpen, sending Double-A prospect Jose Ceda to the Marlins.

Whether Gregg will be a closer, as he was in Florida, or a set-up man depends on if Carlos Marmol is ready to step into a more significant role.

Either way, the Cubs are trying to maintain their options as they head into the free agent season, which officially kicks off on Friday, when teams can makes offers to free agents outside their organization.

 

More on the Gregg deal in Hardball

-- Paul Sullivan, Chicago Breaking News Center

The same thing was said about ARod last year.

 

I'm not expecting Woody back, mind you, but until he signs someplace else it'll remain a possibility.

[Tyrant]

 

 

Neither was Howry. Besides we could actually use Michael Wuertz and have a Kevin Gregg without trading Jose Ceda who has a chance to be a Carlos Marmol.

 

Sure. A chance. Not a good one, but a chance.

 

I can't believe people are freaking out over Jose freaking Ceda.

[Guest]

he's not good.

True.

 

He's also not bad.

 

 

Neither was Howry. Besides we could actually use Michael Wuertz and have a Kevin Gregg without trading Jose Ceda who has a chance to be a Carlos Marmol.

 

And we could still not need to replace Wood if that was the idea.

Howry gave up enough home runs + extra base hits in 2008 to qualify as bad. I'd say that in 2006 & 07, Howry was actually good.

 

That said...

 

My opinion is that Lou doesn't trust Wuertz any further than he can throw him, so Mike just wasn't an option for Hendry to slot into the 8th or 9th. Shark hasn't shown he can sustain that level of production and Guz hasn't shown he can stay healthy long enough to be trusted with the role at this point. Really, we had one in-house option that management viewed as being ready for those roles and that was Marmol. So we had to get someone else. Assuming they do this correctly, keep Gregg's value high by using him in the closing role, then I'm fine with this move and understand it. If they move Marmol to closer and use Gregg as setup (or worse), then I'll jump on management at that time.

 

btw - I understand that Ceda has some chance to become a good reliever, but very few relief prospects ever reach the level of Marmol's performance over the past couple years. Ceda's chances of reaching that level aren't substantially better than, say, Ascanio's because the chances of anyone reaching that level are so remote.

[Guest]

Jose Ceda = Roberto Novoa who eats more junk food

 

Roberto Novoa wishes he had Ceda's fastball and slider.

[Guancous]

he's not good.

True.

 

He's also not bad.

If they move Marmol to closer and use Gregg as setup (or worse), then I'll jump on management at that time.

 

btw - I understand that Ceda has some chance to become a good reliever, but very few relief prospects ever reach the level of Marmol's performance over the past couple years. Ceda's chances of reaching that level aren't substantially better than, say, Ascanio's because the chances of anyone reaching that level are so remote.

 

Blunt truth after blunt truth. That's why Tim's the head dog around here. I rather like Ascanio's potential. His minor league numbers pop out of Ron Shandler's book.

[Clem Fandango]

 

 

Neither was Howry. Besides we could actually use Michael Wuertz and have a Kevin Gregg without trading Jose Ceda who has a chance to be a Carlos Marmol.

 

Sure. A chance. Not a good one, but a chance.

 

I can't believe people are freaking out over Jose freaking Ceda.

 

I don't think people are a necessarily freaking out over losing Jose Ceda, per se.

 

I think they're freaking out over losing Jose Ceda for someone so mediocre as Kevin Gregg when we could've used him as one of our upper prospects in a deal for someone better.

[Vanilla Ice]

Just so we're clear, the deal really is (from our perspective):

 

Gregg for Ceda and Wood.

 

That's an undeniably, unmistakably, irrefutably, bad thing for the Cubs.

 

Then state it as the deal is:

 

Gregg for Ceda + Wood and a 4 year guaranteed high dollar contract.

How about:

 

1 year of Gregg as closer

four first round draft picks

$35M to spend elsewhere over 4 years

 

vs

 

Ceda + Wood

 

Does that make anyone feel any better?

you stole my exact post. :(

[Guest]

I think there is a pretty good chance Ceda turns out to be pretty similar to Gregg, but cheaper for longer. I don't like this move because it smacks of the proven veterans in the bullpen model that I don't believe is in the best interest of winning baseball games.

[Guest]

Does Gregg compare favorably to Dempster as a reliever?

[SouthSideRyan]

Pitchers currently in the system that aren't starters that I'd rather see on the mound than Kevin Gregg with the game on the line.

 

Marmol, Gooz, Samardzija, Cotts, Gaudin, Wuertz, Marshall(if he's not a starter)

 

THAT IS 7 GUYS

 

A FULL BULLPEN.

 

That's without even getting into whether Gregg is even better than Ceda right now.

 

They're non-tendering Wuertz.

 

That might be even dumber.

[ChiCubsFan]

Just so we're clear, the deal really is (from our perspective):

 

Gregg for Ceda and Wood.

 

That's an undeniably, unmistakably, irrefutably, bad thing for the Cubs.

 

Then state it as the deal is:

 

Gregg for Ceda + Wood and a 4 year guaranteed high dollar contract.

How about:

 

1 year of Gregg as closer

four first round draft picks

$35M to spend elsewhere over 4 years

 

vs

 

Ceda + Wood

 

Does that make anyone feel any better?

you stole my exact post. :(

 

Yeah. Honestly, letting Woody go was the right move, as much as that pains me to say. I also think I'd rather have a year of Gregg + 2 draft picks over Ceda. Gregg isn't that bad. As long as we just leave him in the closers role and let Marmol handle the real tough situations, then it's a good move. I'd also think about adding Juan Cruz if it doesn't cost too much (and I'm typically against signing relievers as FAs).

[SouthSideRyan]

He's good enough.

 

You don't pay 5M + a prospect for good enough. Would anybody be satisfied with paying 5M for an averagish setup man as a free agent? Why are we ok with spending 5M + a prospect who could've possibly filled that spot?