Re: Time to give Theriot less playing time?

[nilodnayr]

is it really possible to "suck" with a .384 or .407 OBP?

 

some have pretty high standards for offensive production from a league minimum SS

 

2 and 3

 

That is the amount of extra base hits Theriot had in those months respectively.

 

I'm all for OBP, but if you convert those months to wOBA, I believe you are going to get two below league average months, the first one being way below league average.

 

Like I've said about 80 bagillion times, Theriot's peripherals don't show that hes gotten lucky, but his utter and complete lack of power (which I believe is purposeful as his FB rate has dropped significantly), leaves him as a player that is more dependent on luck than pretty much every other player in baseball. We've seen the regression happen within this season and last season. This isn't just a slump or him getting tired. This is to be expected when you don't put the ball into play with power. Hes making the most of his talents and I'm grateful to him to recognize and do that, lots of players don't, but hes no great shakes by any stretch of the imagination.

 

Well, if we go by OPS, then, yes there were only 2 good months. Given that no one attributes any value to his power contributions, should we really throw out the .407 and .384 OBPs in his next 2 lowest OPS months, even given the lack of XBH? I understand the belief that Adam Dunn is the archetype of the modern hitter (correctly so, in many ways), but Theriot has had no lower than a .325 BABIP in any month before this one. Is there no accounting for the rare player who can get a hit without (much) speed and without power? Usually the high BABIP is reserved for the player with good power who has a high LD%. Doesn't seem to hold in this case. Maybe it is a statistical anomaly, but is it possible that this style of hitting doesn't fall into the accepted metrics in terms of predictive usefulness? I ask this as a point of curiosity to those closer to the more advanced metrics. I find the regression to the mean explanation a tired one, no pun intended.

 

I have personally come to believe that the value of OBP is understated by most formulas - particularly in a team concept. Theriot's value is in his obp and there is definitely value in that so I agree that looking at his monthly ops is not particularly reflective. What is concerning about Theriot is that when his luck falls off, he is completely worthless. I don't think he can ever draw many walks simply because pitchers have no fear of his power (see Kosuke Fukodome who I suspect is falling the same problem as part of his overall decline). In short, Theriot has to maintain his LD% and have a corresponding BABIP to be useful. Given his suspect defense and baserunning, I am skeptical of his long-term value. That being said, he is the SS on the best defensive team in the NL so perhaps his defensive liabilities are overstated. The Cubs cannot afford plays like his boot of the third out before the Glaus homerun in the playoffs but I'm not sure its fair to cherrypick plays like that.

 

I agree, OPS wildly understates OBP, which is why I used wOBA to value him, not OPS. Even with wOBA, his complete and utter lack of power renders him a below average player in those months. OBP is great and greater than most people believe, but its not everything.

[mopapa]

Just curious - for those of you who've seen him in BP, does Theriot ever hit the ball out of the park? I love him, but I don't know that I've ever seen a major leaguer hit fewer homers, or even hit many deep flyballs.

[nilodnayr]

2 and 3

 

That is the amount of extra base hits Theriot had in those months respectively.

 

I'm all for OBP, but if you convert those months to wOBA, I believe you are going to get two below league average months, the first one being way below league average.

 

Like I've said about 80 bagillion times, Theriot's peripherals don't show that hes gotten lucky, but his utter and complete lack of power (which I believe is purposeful as his FB rate has dropped significantly), leaves him as a player that is more dependent on luck than pretty much every other player in baseball. We've seen the regression happen within this season and last season. This isn't just a slump or him getting tired. This is to be expected when you don't put the ball into play with power. Hes making the most of his talents and I'm grateful to him to recognize and do that, lots of players don't, but hes no great shakes by any stretch of the imagination.

i don't know what purpose is served by bringing up his peripherals when we're arguing over whether he was detrimental in the 2 months with the .384 & .407 OBPs.

 

i'm very well aware of his miserable ISO, but are you arguing that a slugging can be low enough where even getting a .380 OBP in the 2 spot from a min-salary SS is adversely affecting the offense?

 

 

I'm all for OBP, but if you convert those months to wOBA, I believe you are going to get two below league average months, the first one being way below league average.

 

Granted, league average and league average for a SS are different things.

[Old Style]

Just curious - for those of you who've seen him in BP, does Theriot ever hit the ball out of the park? I love him, but I don't know that I've ever seen a major leaguer hit fewer homers, or even hit many deep flyballs.

I'm drawing a blank on the name right now, but there was one player that had one HR for his entire career and that was off Steve Stone. Harry used to give him crap about that all the time.

 

EDIT: Duane Kuiper was the player.

[Sammy Sofa]

Just curious - for those of you who've seen him in BP, does Theriot ever hit the ball out of the park? I love him, but I don't know that I've ever seen a major leaguer hit fewer homers, or even hit many deep flyballs.

 

He's Juan Pierre minus the speed plus the "ability" for his groundballs to find gaps in the infield.

[nilodnayr]

Just curious - for those of you who've seen him in BP, does Theriot ever hit the ball out of the park? I love him, but I don't know that I've ever seen a major leaguer hit fewer homers, or even hit many deep flyballs.

 

He's Juan Pierre minus the speed plus the "ability" for his groundballs to find gaps in the infield.

 

Actually, thats quite an understatement. Theriot's OBP is outpacing his SLG by 25 points this year. Juan Pierre has always had higher SLG than OBP up until this year where his OBP is outpacing his SLG by only 2 points.

 

Infact, Juan Pierre, in his lone year with the Cubs had DOUBLE the amount of XBHs than Theriot has this year.

 

And on top of that Juan Pierre, in his lone year with the Cubs had the exact same number of triples and homers as Theriot has in his major league career in nearly double the PAs.

 

THT did an article about guys who had higher OBPs than SLG a year or so back I believe. I tried looking, but couldn't find it. If anyone else can, it'd be interesting to see how Theriot's year matches up historically.

[Sammy Sofa]

Theriot's year has mostly been a pleasant surprise, but I still hope that the team isn't assuming SS is taken care of for 2009. Upgrade-upgrade-upgrade.

[rocket]

theriot is fine for a league-minimum making shortstop.

 

when he starts getting pricey, though, the cubs should definitely look into upgrading.

[jersey cubs fan]

theriot is fine for a league-minimum making shortstop.

 

when he starts getting pricey, though, the cubs should definitely look into upgrading.

 

Very true. The Cubs should not go beyond the first year of arbitration with him, if they go that long. He turns 29 this year and I believe next season is his last on the cheap. There's no reason to pay him a million or more in 2010 when he's in his 30's and unlikely to maintain his singles influenced OBP.

[Derwood]

it's also not hard for Pierre's SLG to eclipse his OBP when his OBP is hovering around .330

[nilodnayr]

theriot is fine for a league-minimum making shortstop.

 

when he starts getting pricey, though, the cubs should definitely look into upgrading.

 

Thats fine as long as they make a major upgrade in the OF. We surely are not going to repeat our CF production without making an acquisition.

 

Additionally, I would look to see if anyone out there overvalues Theriot and if someone does, trade him.

[sneakypower]

Granted, league average and league average for a SS are different things.

that's precisely the point. i'm seeing average SS line as .268/.323/.385 and .314 wOBA

 

so Theriot's monthly splits, wOBA:

0.389

0.348

0.326

0.358

0.322

0.260

 

september's the only month where he falls below avg threshold for SS and that's just 2/3 the sample size of the rest

[nilodnayr]

Granted, league average and league average for a SS are different things.

that's precisely the point. i'm seeing average SS line as .268/.323/.385 and .314 wOBA

 

so Theriot's monthly splits, wOBA:

0.389

0.348

0.326

0.358

0.322

0.260

 

september's the only month where he falls below avg threshold for SS and that's just 2/3 the sample size of the rest

 

where'd you get monthly splits of wOBA?

[sneakypower]

eh i just took a couple minutes and ran it in excel

 

FirstInning does it but just for last year

[The Other 15]

Just curious - for those of you who've seen him in BP, does Theriot ever hit the ball out of the park? I love him, but I don't know that I've ever seen a major leaguer hit fewer homers, or even hit many deep flyballs.

Not really. He used to hit a few out last year, but this year, he seems focused and uses BP to work on his insideout swing.

[The Other 15]

Thats fine as long as they make a major upgrade in the OF. We surely are not going to repeat our CF production without making an acquisition.

 

I know that it has become popular to write Pie off but I wouldn't just yet. Looking at young players like Ellsbury and Gomez for example, it's very difficult for me to believe that Pie would do worse in a full season. I'm sure that they will have a backup plan like Johnson or another version of Edmonds (Cameron? Pods? eww I cant' believe i just brought up Pods) ready in place but I'm also near certain that they will give Pie every chance to win the job in spring.

 

Don't throw out the baby with the water.

[SouthSideRyan]

I'm with you on giving it to Pie. He's still never gotten much of a chance in the bigs. I just really hope he winds up better than Carlos Gomez who is just terrible.

[sneakypower]

Felix represents enough of a massive defensive upgrade from Edmonds to bridge the gap (somewhat) in offensive output. I have little doubt that Fukudome improves considerably next year which also will help duplicate this years success for the team.

 

As for Gomez, he's closing out the season well with 800+ September OPS after a brutal summer stretch. He won't, but should get GG consideration. Expect him to improve by a decent amount next year.

/Gomez apologistism

[The Other 15]

Wow, the pure stupidity for Hawk Harrleson never stops to amaze. He just called Griffs HR like it tied the game instead of making 9-3. To which he added, "9-3 is alot better than 9-1"

 

Anyways, pie is still a work in progress. What I have a hard time with is the notion that there would be no place for him to learn on this roster. Again, not comparing Pie to Ellsbury, but If teams like Boston could use a solid defender and good speed, there surely has to be a spot on this team for a talent like Pie. Of he turns out a bust, so be it, but you have to give him a shot sooner or later.

[BigbadB]

Wow, the pure stupidity for Hawk Harrleson never stops to amaze. He just called Griffs HR like it tied the game instead of making 9-3. To which he added, "9-3 is alot better than 9-1"

 

Anyways, pie is still a work in progress. What I have a hard time with is the notion that there would be no place for him to learn on this roster. Again, not comparing Pie to Ellsbury, but If teams like Boston could use a solid defender and good speed, there surely has to be a spot on this team for a talent like Pie. Of he turns out a bust, so be it, but you have to give him a shot sooner or later.

 

Agreed. Gomez is on a playoff hopeful, too.

[The Other 15]

Pie has a career .825 OPS in the minors. A guy like that should be give a few learning months in someones order that has as much diversity as the Cubs'.

[27up27down]

Agreed. Gomez is on a playoff hopeful, too.

Oof. Let's hope Pie could equal his contribution. Gomez is atrocious.

[sneakypower]

K rate

 

2004 - 24.7%

2005 - 20.7%

2006 - 20.8%

2007 - 16.1%

2008 - 14.9%

 

i've been glad to see he's consistently cut down on his Ks each year while actually improving his slugging as well overall

 

did i mention he's a great CF?

 

GIVE POOR GUY A CHANCE ALREADY

[TruffleShuffle]

I have personally come to believe that the value of OBP is understated by most formulas - particularly in a team concept. Theriot's value is in his obp and there is definitely value in that so I agree that looking at his monthly ops is not particularly reflective. What is concerning about Theriot is that when his luck falls off, he is completely worthless.

 

yes that's true, but one also has to assume that luck will even out over time. some months theriot will have more singles drop in and be a very productive player; other months those batted balls will be caught more frequently and he'll have very little value.

 

I don't think he can ever draw many walks simply because pitchers have no fear of his power.

 

he's drawn 69 walks in 641 PAs this year, which is a rate comparable to lee and ramirez. i don't know why pitchers would walk him, but they have been this year, and i think the cat has been out of the bag for quite a while on him not being a power hitter. he's in the bottom 20 in baseball in frequency swinging at pitches; most guys in this group are guys you'd expect to see - cust, dunn, abreu, swisher. he's 7th in baseball in zone%, which i'm pretty sure means percent of pitches he sees within the strike zone. so pitchers throw him a lot of strikes, but he still manages to walk a lot. it's strange, but i don't think the spread is that large between the # of strikes that theriot sees and the # of strikes that a guy like adam dunn sees. pitchers probably don't vary their approach as much as they should.

 

The Cubs cannot afford plays like his boot of the third out before the Glaus homerun in the playoffs but I'm not sure its fair to cherrypick plays like that.

 

of course it's unfair. he's a little below average, but people make him out to be a complete butcher. he makes a very high percentage of plays on balls hit to him or in his area; his range is limited and his arm is fringy. this ends up making him a little below average. just because he made an error in an important spot that you remember does not make him any worse of a defensive player.

 

overall, he'll give you above-average obp and below-average power at his position, plus a little below-average defense. he is essentially to shortstop what matt murton was to corner outfield. in the absence of a better in-house alternative, you're probably going to need a few players like this on the roster - adequate players making the major league minimum, so that you can afford to pay the big-production veterans.

[Tracer Bullet]

I have personally come to believe that the value of OBP is understated by most formulas - particularly in a team concept. Theriot's value is in his obp and there is definitely value in that so I agree that looking at his monthly ops is not particularly reflective. What is concerning about Theriot is that when his luck falls off, he is completely worthless.

 

yes that's true, but one also has to assume that luck will even out over time. some months theriot will have more singles drop in and be a very productive player; other months those batted balls will be caught more frequently and he'll have very little value.

 

I don't think he can ever draw many walks simply because pitchers have no fear of his power.

 

he's drawn 69 walks in 641 PAs this year, which is a rate comparable to lee and ramirez. i don't know why pitchers would walk him, but they have been this year, and i think the cat has been out of the bag for quite a while on him not being a power hitter. he's in the bottom 20 in baseball in frequency swinging at pitches; most guys in this group are guys you'd expect to see - cust, dunn, abreu, swisher. he's 7th in baseball in zone%, which i'm pretty sure means percent of pitches he sees within the strike zone. so pitchers throw him a lot of strikes, but he still manages to walk a lot. it's strange, but i don't think the spread is that large between the # of strikes that theriot sees and the # of strikes that a guy like adam dunn sees. pitchers probably don't vary their approach as much as they should.

 

The Cubs cannot afford plays like his boot of the third out before the Glaus homerun in the playoffs but I'm not sure its fair to cherrypick plays like that.

 

of course it's unfair. he's a little below average, but people make him out to be a complete butcher. he makes a very high percentage of plays on balls hit to him or in his area; his range is limited and his arm is fringy. this ends up making him a little below average. just because he made an error in an important spot that you remember does not make him any worse of a defensive player.

 

overall, he'll give you above-average obp and below-average power at his position, plus a little below-average defense. he is essentially to shortstop what matt murton was to corner outfield. in the absence of a better in-house alternative, you're probably going to need a few players like this on the roster - adequate players making the major league minimum, so that you can afford to pay the big-production veterans.

 

One significant difference between Murton & Theriot was the age at which they put up this "adequate" production in the majors. Murton was just about to enter his peak years, so it was reasonable to assume that given regular playing, his production would improve (he didn't really get that). Theriot is in his prime and so this is about as good as it gets. And with Theriot, you have Cedeno pushing him for a shot. We disagree on whether Cedeno deserves this shot, but I don't think it's fair to say there aren't any in-house options deserving of a shot at SS.

 

I also think it's not entirely accurate to compare his numbers to other SS, given that he's not a good SS. You say "little below average" but I think range and arm strength are really important for SS (things Cedeno has). Theriot makes most of the plays hit right at him, but he flubs some of those too. I'd say he's more than a little below average, but it's somewhat subjective and it's splitting hairs. He's below average defensively and average at best offensively in his peak. I'd readily give up that combination to give a shot to a much younger kid that destroyed AAA twice, but again, we disagree on that.