9/2 Astros (Backe) v Cubs (Z!) 7:05 WGN

[chuckywang]

 

Because of a statistically insignificant 1% difference. Nothing like being a slave to the numbers.

 

You forgot to factor the probability of a successful sac bunt. Say that's 95%. Then the win probability when you decide to bunt (but haven't yet executed) is .95*.70.

Edited September 3, 2008 by chuckywang

[David]

 

Actually, no it doesn't, as 1% is not a significant statistical difference. Its a judgment call.

 

 

Fine. Fair enough. You were still treating it as though it was a must bunt situation no matter what, though.

[bcl412]

So...I was just thinking...

 

Can you guys think of a more nerve wracking game than the extra inning NLCS game in 2003... Game 3 was it?

 

These extra inning games always make me nuts...

 

I remember game one where it we went from being behind to being tied to being behind again. That was a roller coaster.

[inari]

I've got a feeling Riot will be on the move for a hit and run.

[Outshined_One]

That's better.

[BCVM22]

haha Blum

[David]

Fuku!

[rocket]

EXCELLENT.

 

end it soriano

[Derwood]

EAT DIRT, BLUM!

[Omar]

Should've let him bunt, Astros. Edited September 3, 2008 by Omar

[Rob]

That's better than a bunt.

[weatherdood]

Take that one, Blum!

[sweetpeteman]

Finally Blum misses one. Bight me Blum.

[inari]

Now a bunt sounds good if it wasn't Soriano.

[Guest]

Lou had better not be bunting with Soriano here.

[Ski]

That is why you don't bunt.

 

Let's win now, Cubs!

[manbearcub]

too bad he couldnt get the bunt down

[Little Slide Rooter]

Fuku-Something!

[WilcoFan]

From fangraphs

 

Win probablity after Ramirez walk- 71%

 

win probablity after DeRoa bunt- 63%

 

 

Those are very nice numbers.

 

You want a guy in scoring position.

 

You can say what you want, but statistics show that bunting decreases your chances of winning

 

That's very nice. Good for statistics.

 

Bill Plashke, is that you?

 

Nothing like utterly distorting my point. In THIS SITUATION, you bunt.

uh no, based on this exact situation, it still lowers your win probability.

 

 

Actually, no it doesn't, as 1% is not a significant statistical difference. Its a judgment call.

 

and a stupid one to take the bat out of a good hitter so an inferior hitter can bat with a runner on 2nd.

 

 

That's very nice. I disagree.

[DivineBovine]

End this! Come on Sori! At least advance the runners.

[ChiCubsFan]

I'm surprised Blum didn't come up with that.

[TMan92]

Someone check Blum's glove for a hole....that's unpossible.

[haubrich91]

Nice hit.

[DivineBovine]

End this! Come on Sori! At least advance the runners.

[Derwood]

wait, you mean mean at 1st and 2nd w/ no outs is better than a runner at 2nd with 1 out?