Minor League Discussion & Boxes 8-20-2008

[Cynosure]

Hoff 2-2 2B so far... keep staying hot for a couple weeks from now, Hoff!

[Guest]

Umm, Ryan Flaherty is starting at third base and JOSH VITTERS is starting at shortstop today. :shock:

[Guest]

Rundle struck out and Vitters grounded first time up. Flaherty is up now.

[rawaction]

Umm, Ryan Flaherty is starting at third base and JOSH VITTERS is starting at shortstop today. :shock:

 

Are you sure? Watching or boxscore?

[Keener98]

Umm, Ryan Flaherty is starting at third base and JOSH VITTERS is starting at shortstop today. :shock:

 

Umm what? :shock:

[rawaction]

Tyler Colvin has gone deep. 1-2, with a 2-run HR.

[Guest]

Umm, Ryan Flaherty is starting at third base and JOSH VITTERS is starting at shortstop today. :shock:

 

Are you sure? Watching or boxscore?

 

Box score. Just started listening so we'll see if that's accurate.

[rawaction]

Hoff singled again. 3 for 3. Pie also singled.

[Cynosure]

Hoff singled again. 3 for 3. Pie also singled.

 

.373/1.175 :-D

 

Just keeps going up.

[Guest]

The Boise announcer just said the defensive alignment and had Vitters at third and Flaherty at short. MiLB.com's box score is wrong.

[Rob]

The Boise announcer just said the defensive alignment and had Vitters at third and Flaherty at short. MiLB.com's box score is wrong.

 

Shame.

[Guest]

Jeff Beliveau has struck out the last 6 batters. 3 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 6 K. Vitters is 0 for 2 with a K.

 

Dionis Nuñez gets the start for Mesa.

[Little Slide Rooter]

The way the Cubs offense looked this evening, maybe its time to promote our favorite 47 year old prospect sooner than later.

[CubColtPacer]

There's no real way that Colvin can salvage this into a good season. But he is certainly interesting because of all the different flashes he's shown this year.

 

Looking over the post-All Star Break numbers, I'm struck by one thing. Colvin's walk totals have gone back to just a little higher than what they were last year. At the same time though, his strikeout rate has stayed down lower than it was last year, and has stayed relatively consistent since the last 10 days of May. Even if he always is a highly aggressive hitter, if he can maintain that ISOP with that acceptable strikeout rate he'll be a decent player.

 

The question is-was the work they did with him the reason for this strikeout rate change? It certainly seems so, since it appeared with the increased walks and didn't decrease when the walks went away. As is almost everything with Colvin right now though, it will take a year or two to sort out all the mixed signals that his splits suggest.

[NCCubFan]

Daytona's game in Vero Beach was postponed due to wet grounds from Tropical Storm Fay. They'll have a doubleheader tomorrow evening at 5 pm EDT in Vero.

Probably not. 60% chance of rain tomorrow during the day, 80% a night.

[Rob]

Vitters popped out to end the 7th. He may not get another chance to extend the hit streak.

[Jon]

Colvin had a .383 BABIP before today to go along with his 16.9 LD% in August. By month, his next highest BABIP was .292 back in May. His LD% is August is only his third highest.

[Guest]

They even go 10 innings but Vitters can't get a hit to tie the NWL all-time streak.

[Cubbies622]

That is very unfortunate. I was looking forward to him breaking the record. Either way, I am very impressed at the streak.

[CubsWin]

Isn't Vitters chasing the NWL hit-streak record?

 

Yes. If he gets a hit today, he ties the record of 26 games.

I blame both of you...

[CubsWin]

There's no real way that Colvin can salvage this into a good season. But he is certainly interesting because of all the different flashes he's shown this year.

 

Looking over the post-All Star Break numbers, I'm struck by one thing. Colvin's walk totals have gone back to just a little higher than what they were last year. At the same time though, his strikeout rate has stayed down lower than it was last year, and has stayed relatively consistent since the last 10 days of May. Even if he always is a highly aggressive hitter, if he can maintain that ISOP with that acceptable strikeout rate he'll be a decent player.

 

The question is-was the work they did with him the reason for this strikeout rate change? It certainly seems so, since it appeared with the increased walks and didn't decrease when the walks went away. As is almost everything with Colvin right now though, it will take a year or two to sort out all the mixed signals that his splits suggest.

What his decreased walk rate tells me is he's hot and feeling better swinging at pitches and making good, solid contact. Before, he seemed over matched by the AA pitching. He was lacking confidence, and so he was offering at fewer pitches. I think his earlier BABIP shows this. (Yes, there is an element of luck to BABIP of hitting them where they ain't, but there is also an element of the player making better contact and hitting the ball harder.)

 

At no point this season did he show a great eye, but his IsoD is improved from last year. He certainly seems to have figured something out. I don't know if he has gotten used to the improved breaking stuff that players encounter in the Southern League or whether he closed a hole in his swing that was getting exploited, but the 137 post all star break ABs count as more than just a hot streak.

 

Whereas his performance in the 2nd half thus far is reason for hope, I agree, there are a lot more questions than there are answers right now with Tyler.

[craig]

On Colvin, agree, more questions than answers. But it certainly is encouraging that he's kicked it in so dramatically this month.

 

I see 4 major differences post-break/August vs pre-break, most of which have been mentioned.

1. Walks are down. His performance as a walk-taker was rather temporary.

2. K's are down. 21% pre-break, 14% post-break, <13% in August. (Last year he was >20%.) If the real guy could sustain a K-rate below 15%, that would pretty good.

3. More hits in August. When you K less and HR more, that tends to happen even apart from changes in LD or BABIP.

4. Slugging is way up. Pre-break .380; post break .562; August .709. Last year, .488. Slugging at .562 or better, that's huge slugging output. (Soriano, for example, has never exceeded .560).

 

If he can K little, and slug much, he's going to be a major leaguer even without good IsoD.

 

It's natural for us, who have been so concerned with his abysmal IsoD, to focus on changes he's made there. But sometimes there are other factors. A poster on my other board talked to Fleita a couple weeks ago, shortly before Colvin had a 2-HR game, and was told that Colvin has changed/adjusted his batting stance. I got the impression that this was about the time that he started to take off. This guy's info was direct from Oneri, so I think that's pretty trustworthy info.

 

Another poster is friends with a Baltimore scout, who said that Colvin had been instructed to work on the discipline aspect. But that at some point this summer, supposedly the Cubs released him from that priority. According to this source, they wanted to let him relax and just hit away for now, but will supposedly push it again next spring. Not sure how informed a Baltimore scout would be, but interesting and plausible.

 

The first guy I mentioned has been to dozens of Smokies games this year, and last year. He said that Colvin looked tentative for much of this season while he wasn't doing anything, but that now he looks more relaxed and decisive in the box, more like he looked last year.

 

Obviously this is a hot spell, it won't last. But I'd project that Colvin's turn may combine the change in stance, some renewed confidence that came with getting some hits and XBH, being less inhibited and more relaxed in letting his swing fly (without the take-walks focus). But it may also be that while the period of trying to be more selective has not resulted in continuous walks, it may be that he has improved at recognizing and laying off of bad balls. Plus, even if he isn't walking much, it may be that he is showing much improved pitch recognition and plate discipline. Perhaps he is much improved at swinging at strikes; but if he's hitting the strikes now, as opposed to missing them or fouling them in June, maybe he's less likely to get to deep counts?

 

When Colvin was drafted, he was never really presented as a power hitter. But I'm hopeful that when it plays out, he'll make it more as a power guy than as an IsoD guy. 14 HR at 22 in a pitchers league during a struggle season, 38% of hits for extras, and a frame that may never be more than slender but could conceivable still add some muscle, I think it's possible that he'll be a .200+ Iso-P guy down the road. If he hits 12 HR's a year, it will be tough to be good. But if he could be more of a 20-HR guy (or better), and can keep his K's down, he could be pretty useful.

 

Walks are a valuable end in themselves, of that I have no doubt. But at present Colvin is getting so many hits and power hits with so few K's, it's hard to think his plate discipline isn't pretty acceptable for now. If he was flailing at all kinds of bouncing sliders, I'd assume the K's would be worse and the slugging less.