Ryan Dempster: Legit Cy Young Candidate:

[RedFlash]

I think so.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/pitching?sort=ERA&split=0&league=nl&season=2008&seasonType=2&type=reg&ageMin=17&ageMax=51&hand=a&pos=all&minip=0

 

I know Brandon Webb, Jacob Peavy, Tim Lincecum are the front runners for the Cy Young Award, and rightfully so are getting the pub. But looking at the numbers, Ryan Dempsters' numbers are comparably to those that are deemed the frontrunners (and I don't mean Philly fans) for the award. So why no love for Dempster?

 

Discuss...

[Guest]

I'd add Haren to the list of guys ahead of Dempster, though he's not getting nearly enough pub because Brandon Webb is 18-4. Haren's actually been the better pitcher of the two IMO.

 

As far as legitimate Cy candidates, he's probably behind Webb and Volquez and maybe Lincecum (if we're going by what the voters will go for). But Santana, Peavy and Sheets have probably been better pitchers as well but they won't get many votes because of their W-L record.

[rawaction]

Peavy has no shot of winning the Cy Young. Brandon Webb has very little shot of NOT winning the Cy Young. He has the wins, and all his numbers are good enough to justify it without much question.

 

My vote would go for Lincecum. If you like Ks, he will lead the NL in that. If you like ERA, he leads the NL in that. If you value wins, then you have to value the fact that he will likely finish with the fewest losses of any starting pitcher, and he's on a bad team. If you like durability, he will finish top 5 in innings.

 

A name that has been strangely quiet this year, but has put up numbers nearly identical (actually slightly better) than Webb is Johan Santana, who has put up a 2.27 ERA since June. Webb and Santana have thrown the exact same innings (2nd to Hamels), have given up the exact same number of hits and are within 4 in Ks, BBs allowed, and ERs.

 

Dempster has been amazing, but one could argue him as the 7th best pitcher in the NL this year, behind Webb, Santana, Haren, Lincecum, Volquez and Peavy. Hamels, Zambrano and Billingsley are a strong finish away from getting their names in the discussion, but it's probably a little too late for them.

[TheDude]

Webb might be the favorite because of Wins, but he is not light years ahead of Dempster as some of you have indicated. And none of Harden, Zambrano, Santana, or Peavy are ahead of Dempster when you're talking 2008 Cy Young. They might be better pitchers on talent or career (or both), but they are not better 2008 candidates for this award right now. It's time for people on this board to acknowledge that Zambrano is not having as good a year as Dempster.

 

Regarding the Webb comparison; Dempster has allowed fewer ER, fewer base runners (Walks + Hits), and has more Strikeouts than Webb. Webb's Innings advantage gives him a minute .07 ERA and .06 WHIP advantage over Dempster. This more or less evens out these stats.

 

So Webb has more Wins and a better W/L differential, Dempster has Ks. Everything else is basically even. Innings won't matter presuming both hit 200, which looks likely. 200 is the magic number for the award.

 

If both pitchers remain constant on Inn/Start, ERA, WHIP, and Ks, but Dempster manages to catch Webb in Wins, there should be no reason why he isn't listed in the top 4 with Webb, Lincecum, and Volquez. Santana is going to have to win every start the rest of the way to put his name in the list. Zambrano is going to have to summon up double-digit Ks every start and Win almost every game to get into the race.

[kujay]

I agree with you, but if Webb gets 20 of that magical, ridiculous stat, there is no chance for Demp.

[kjfoster 1553]

CC Sabathia should get the NL Cy Young after he goes 14-0 with an ERA well below 2 in like 16 starts for the Brewers.

 

But I think it will be Webb

[TheDude]

I agree with you, but if Webb gets 20 of that magical, ridiculous stat, there is no chance for Demp.

 

Unless Dempster also gets 20 Wins. By my count Dempster has 7 starts remaining, unless Lou closes the season by skipping Marquis the last week or two, in which case I'd put his max number of starts left at 8.

 

It's unlikely to be certain - as Dempster has a 5 W/L differential to make up from Webb. But if Webb goes 2-2-3 in W-L-ND and Dempster goes 6-1-0, then they tie in W/L records for the season.

 

The reason Webb would be the today's-date-Cy-Young is that +14 W/L differential, which smokes Lincecum, Volquez, and Dempster. Traditional Cy Young voting would place that metric ahead of marginal differences in ERA and Ks.

[SouthSideRyan]

The last time people talked about a Cubs pitcher potentially getting 20 wins, Carlos Zambrano went in the tank.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

The last time people talked about a Cubs pitcher potentially getting 20 wins, Carlos Zambrano went in the tank.

Zambrano will never win another game

[sneakypower]

Ted Lilly has a better K rate than Santana

 

hell, so does Randy Wolf

 

Webb's going to win it almost unanimously

[rawaction]

Webb might be the favorite because of Wins, but he is not light years ahead of Dempster as some of you have indicated. And none of Harden, Zambrano, Santana, or Peavy are ahead of Dempster when you're talking 2008 Cy Young. They might be better pitchers on talent or career (or both), but they are not better 2008 candidates for this award right now. It's time for people on this board to acknowledge that Zambrano is not having as good a year as Dempster.

 

Regarding the Webb comparison; Dempster has allowed fewer ER, fewer base runners (Walks + Hits), and has more Strikeouts than Webb. Webb's Innings advantage gives him a minute .07 ERA and .06 WHIP advantage over Dempster. This more or less evens out these stats.

 

So Webb has more Wins and a better W/L differential, Dempster has Ks. Everything else is basically even. Innings won't matter presuming both hit 200, which looks likely. 200 is the magic number for the award.

 

If both pitchers remain constant on Inn/Start, ERA, WHIP, and Ks, but Dempster manages to catch Webb in Wins, there should be no reason why he isn't listed in the top 4 with Webb, Lincecum, and Volquez. Santana is going to have to win every start the rest of the way to put his name in the list. Zambrano is going to have to summon up double-digit Ks every start and Win almost every game to get into the race.

 

First, nobody said Zambrano was having a better year. And Harden's name has not even been brought up.

 

And you just helped my point. I didn't say Dempster was that far behind Webb. The fact is he IS behind Webb in all those stats, so there's no way to justify giving him the Cy Young, unless you place some unnecessary weight on the fact that he was a reliever last year and pitches for the NLs best team. The fact that Webb is in the top 5 in every pitching category and is dominating the league in the wins category means he will win it.

[TheDude]

First, nobody said Zambrano was having a better year. And Harden's name has not even been brought up.

 

My apologies on Harden. That was typo, I meant Haren. Haren is more or less in the same boat as Dempster as far as Cy Young goes, but not ahead of him.

 

And my sentiment on Zambrano goes back to previous threads where numerous people cited Zambrano as the Cubs MVP for 2008 so far. Of coarse, they may have been before his last two starts, where he has fallen behind Dempster after giving up 14 ERs in 10 Innings.

 

The point is moot. Most agree Webb is the favorite and Dempster has to kill in his last 7 starts to get his name in the mix.

[rawaction]

The point is moot. Most agree Webb is the favorite and Dempster has to kill in his last 7 starts to get his name in the mix.

 

Dempster may need to kill Webb himself to have a chance. And still Webb would get the sympathy vote, and still be deserving of it.

[UK1679666180]

Ain't no one going to win except Webb, there would have to be some extreme collaspe at this stage for him not to get it.

[RedFlash]

I understand Webb and a cetain degree Lincecum are the favorites to win the award, but why is Dempster is being shut for putting up comparably numbers?

 

We all know that the W/L record for a pitcher is pretty much useless due to several factors (and I hate the fact that voters use a useless stat in their process to award the Cy Young award), but you don't hear anything about Dempster in the mix of the Cy Young, and I think that is a disservice to Ryan.

[UK1679666180]

I understand Webb and a cetain degree Lincecum are the favorites to win the award, but why is Dempster is being shut for putting up comparably numbers?

 

We all know that the W/L record for a pitcher is pretty much useless due to several factors (and I hate the fact that voters use a useless stat in their process to award the Cy Young award), but you don't hear anything about Dempster in the mix of the Cy Young, and I think that is a disservice to Ryan.

 

The ones voting for the Cy Young award believe in W/L as a key stat, equal if not greater in value to ERA and Ks.

[RedFlash]

I understand Webb and a cetain degree Lincecum are the favorites to win the award, but why is Dempster is being shut for putting up comparably numbers?

 

We all know that the W/L record for a pitcher is pretty much useless due to several factors (and I hate the fact that voters use a useless stat in their process to award the Cy Young award), but you don't hear anything about Dempster in the mix of the Cy Young, and I think that is a disservice to Ryan.

 

The ones voting for the Cy Young award believe in W/L as a key stat, equal if not greater in value to ERA and Ks.

 

Those people are idiots, and should have their votes taken away.

[Joe_Cub]

he's the cy young of the cubs.

[Guest]

I understand Webb and a cetain degree Lincecum are the favorites to win the award, but why is Dempster is being shut for putting up comparably numbers?

 

We all know that the W/L record for a pitcher is pretty much useless due to several factors (and I hate the fact that voters use a useless stat in their process to award the Cy Young award), but you don't hear anything about Dempster in the mix of the Cy Young, and I think that is a disservice to Ryan.

 

It's because by the general media, Carlos Zambrano is viewed as the Cubs' ace, not Dempster. This despite Dempster having better numbers this year.

[Guest]

Regarding the Webb comparison; Dempster has allowed fewer ER, fewer base runners (Walks + Hits), and has more Strikeouts than Webb. Webb's Innings advantage gives him a minute .07 ERA and .06 WHIP advantage over Dempster. This more or less evens out these stats.

 

Those don't even out. Dempster's only given up fewer base runners and fewer earned runs because he's thrown fewer innings. That's why there are rate stats.

[Geech]

VORP:

 

1.	Tim Lincecum	53.9	
2.	Johan Santana  49.1	
3.	Brandon Webb	48.6	
4.	Dan Haren	   47.3
5.	Ryan Dempster  44.6

[AlwaysaCub]

It's pretty wild that the Diamondbacks pitching staff sans Webb is 10 games under .500 yet that team is still tied for first.

[Gingerballs Lives]

Yes.

[ELCABALLO45]

So I was watching WWE Raw(at a friends house who obviously is a HUGE wrestling fan for some reason) but anyways, who was in the front row?

 

Mike Fontenot, Ryan Dempster and some other Cub player I didn't recognize.

 

Dempster of couse was being funny. Just thought I would share that.

[badnews]

Let's hope Dempster doesn't win it, he's already going to require an assload of money to re-sign.