40 Games to Play

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Heading into Saturday's game, the Cubs have 40 more games. Right now we have a record of 75-47. If the Cubs went just 20-20 over the last forty, we would finish the season with ninety-five wins. To tie us, the Brewers would have to go 25-14 over their last 39, and the Cardinals would have to go 26-11 over their last 37.

 

If the Cubs played 22-18 over that stretch, the Brewers would have to go 27-12 and the Cardinals would have to go 28-9 just to tie.

 

Go Cubs!

[shnsajax]

damn this season is really flying. Let's just go 39-1 and be done with it.

[sneakypower]

and if we keep winning at the same clip we've been (.615), the Brewers would have to finish 30-9 to tie us in the division

[evv98]

and if we keep winning at the same clip we've been (.615), the Brewers would have to finish 30-9 to tie us in the division

 

With their schedule, i wouldn't put it past the Brewers to finish that way.

 

40 games left means what, 18 starts for Sabathia?

[CubinNY]

and if we keep winning at the same clip we've been (.615), the Brewers would have to finish 30-9 to tie us in the division

 

With their schedule, i wouldn't put it past the Brewers to finish that way.

 

40 games left means what, 18 starts for Sabathia?

It's too early yet, but if the Cubs keep the hammer down I could easily see the Brewers content with the WC. However, that pre-supposes that the Cardinals will fade and they haven't yet. If the Cubs are up by 5 or 6 by mid September and the Cardinals have faded I think the Brewers will rest CC and Sheets.

 

Like I said a month ago we have to hope that the Brewers and Cardinals stay close to each other and tread water. It means that the Cubs can rest some guys while the Brewers cannot. C.C is already at 180 IP and Sheets at 160. I'd love to see Yost burn them in the heat of an August/September push for the playoffs. Maybe he could get Braun to come back early and aggravate whatever is ailing him.

 

Same thing will go for the thee teams in the East and two in the West.

[C.C.]

I just want to make the last 3 games with the Brewers meaningless. Let's clinch this sucker early and rest the guys.

[CubinNY]

I just want to make the last 3 games with the Brewers meaningless. Let's clinch this sucker early and rest the guys.

By that time the Cubs and Brewers could have the playoffs clinched. Then it becomes a pissing match. Who do the Cubs want to face in the NLDS and is it worth going balls out to get it?

[CubinNY]

In doing a little research for my last post I noticed that the Cubs have a run differential of +160. The Next closest is Boston with 128. That is just sick. The Nats have a -150.

 

That shows just how good this team has been up to this point.

[shnsajax]

I just want to make the last 3 games with the Brewers meaningless. Let's clinch this sucker early and rest the guys.

By that time the Cubs and Brewers could have the playoffs clinched. Then it becomes a pissing match. Who do the Cubs want to face in the NLDS and is it worth going balls out to get it?

 

It's more about setting up your rotation for the playoffs. I would rather just have home field.

[CubinNY]

I just want to make the last 3 games with the Brewers meaningless. Let's clinch this sucker early and rest the guys.

By that time the Cubs and Brewers could have the playoffs clinched. Then it becomes a pissing match. Who do the Cubs want to face in the NLDS and is it worth going balls out to get it?

 

It's more about setting up your rotation for the playoffs. I would rather just have home field.

Those two points aren't necessarily mutually exclusive but they can be if Lou goes for best record.

[Fro]

and if we keep winning at the same clip we've been (.615), the Brewers would have to finish 30-9 to tie us in the division

 

With their schedule, i wouldn't put it past the Brewers to finish that way.

 

40 games left means what, 18 starts for Sabathia?

 

19 games left for Brewers with teams over .500

 

2 more games @ LAD

2 games @ InBev Stadium v.s. Cards

3 games v.s. Houston

3 games v.s. Mets

3 games @ Philly

6 games with Cubs

 

Cubs have 27 games left with teams over .500

2 more games @ FL

4 v.s. Philly

6 v.s. Houston

6 v.s. Cards

6 v.s. Brewers

3 @ Mets

 

Cards have 21 games left with teams over .500

2 v.s. Brewers

3 games at Houson

7 with Arizona (3 away/4 home)

3 v.s. Marlins

6 games with Cubs

[chuckywang]

I would love for the last three games against the Brewers to be meaningless for the Cubs but absolutely crucial for the Brewers and the Cubs went and swept them anyways.

[biittner77]

I would love for the last three games against the Brewers to be meaningless for the Cubs but absolutely crucial for the Brewers and the Cubs went and swept them anyways.

 

Hard to imagine how that could be anyone but the Cards in that position.

[Wilson A2000]

25-15 to get 100 wins. That would be nice. When was the last time that occurred?

[Derwood]

25-15 to get 100 wins. That would be nice. When was the last time that occurred?

 

1935

[Mizzou]

I've been hoping all year that we clinch on 9/21. It's looking more and more likely.

[NCCubFan]

Let's just go 39-1 and be done with it.

They got the 1 out of the way, now time for the 39.

[rynefan]

Aren't a lot of Sept. games on the road, though? Hope we can keep up the improved road play. I have tickets to the Sept. 18 Brewers game, and I'd love for those games to be meaningless at that point.

[Fred Hornkohl]

This is the way I have it matching up, which, of course, is always subject to change.

 

Now 39 games left...... and our magic numbers are 35 (Milwaukee) & 32 (St. Louis)

 

Gm#    Date       Opponent         Score  Starter         Opp Starter
124  Sun 08/17  @ Florida            -    Dempster        Volstad       
125  Tue 08/19    Cincinnati    N    -    Harden          Cueto         
126  Wed 08/20    Cincinnati    N    -    Lilly           Arroyo        
127  Thu 08/21    Cincinnati         -    Zambrano        Harang        
128  Fri 08/22    Washington         -    Marquis         Lannan        
129  Sat 08/23    Washington         -    Dempster        Perez         
130  Sun 08/24    Washington         -    Harden          Bergmann      
131  Mon 08/25  @ Pittsburgh    N    -    Lilly           Snell         
132  Tue 08/26  @ Pittsburgh    N    -    Zambrano        Davis         
133  Wed 08/27  @ Pittsburgh         -    Marquis         Duke          
134  Thu 08/28    Philadelphia  N    -    Dempster        Hamels        
135  Fri 08/29    Philadelphia       -    Harden          Blanton       
136  Sat 08/30    Philadelphia       -    Lilly           Myers         
137  Sun 08/31    Philadelphia       -    Zambrano        Moyer         
138  Mon 09/01    Houston            -    Marquis         Backe         
139  Tue 09/02    Houston       N    -    Dempster        Oswalt        
140  Wed 09/03    Houston       N    -    Harden          Wolf          
141  Fri 09/05  @ Cincinnati    N    -    Lilly           Fogg          
142  Sat 09/06  @ Cincinnati    N    -    Zambrano        Cueto         
143  Sun 09/07  @ Cincinnati         -    Marquis         Arroyo        
144  Tue 09/09  @ St. Louis     N    -    Dempster        Looper        
145  Wed 09/10  @ St. Louis     N    -    Harden          Lohse         
146  Thu 09/11  @ St. Louis     N    -    Lilly           Wainright     
147  Fri 09/12  @ Houston       N    -    Zambrano        Backe         
148  Sat 09/13  @ Houston       N    -    Marquis         Rodriguez     
149  Sun 09/14  @ Houston            -    Dempster        Chacon        
150  Tue 09/16    Milwaukee     N    -    Harden          Sabathia      
151  Wed 09/17    Milwaukee     N    -    Lilly           Sheets        
152  Thu 09/18    Milwaukee          -    Zambrano        Parra         
153  Fri 09/19    St. Louis          -    Marquis         Wellemeyer    
154  Sat 09/20    St. Louis          -    Dempster        Thompson      
155  Sun 09/21    St. Louis          -    Harden          Pineiro       
156  Mon 09/22  @ New York      N    -    Lilly           Perez         
157  Tue 09/23  @ New York      N    -    Zambrano        Pelfrey       
158  Wed 09/24  @ New York      N    -    Marquis         Martinezs     
159  Thu 09/25  @ New York      N    -    Dempster        Santana       
160  Fri 09/26  @ Milwaukee     N    -    Harden          Suppan        
161  Sat 09/27  @ Milwaukee          -    Lilly           Sabathia      
162  Sun 09/28  @ Milwaukee          -    Zambrano        Sheets        

 

A prediction, based on linear extrapolation...........

                                remaining     expected      projected
Opponent          record     pct     games       (W/L)          totals

Cincinnati          5- 4   0.556         6     3.3- 2.7       8.3- 6.7
Houston             6- 6   0.500         6     3.0- 3.0       9.0- 9.0
Milwaukee           6- 4   0.600         6     3.6- 2.4       9.6- 6.4
Pittsburgh         11- 4   0.733         3     2.2- 0.8      13.2- 4.8
St. Louis           5- 4   0.556         6     3.3- 2.7       8.3- 6.7
Atlanta             6- 0   1.000                              6.0- 0.0
Florida             3- 3   0.500         1     0.5- 0.5       3.5- 3.5
Washington          1- 2   0.333         3     1.0- 2.0       2.0- 4.0
NY Mets             2- 0   1.000         4     4.0- 0.0       6.0- 0.0
Philadelphia        1- 2   0.333         4     1.3- 2.7       2.3- 4.7
Arizona             4- 2   0.667                              4.0- 2.0
Colorado            5- 1   0.833                              5.0- 1.0
Los Angeles         5- 2   0.714                              5.0- 2.0
San Diego           5- 2   0.714                              5.0- 2.0
San Francisco       4- 3   0.571                              4.0- 3.0
white sox           3- 3   0.500                              3.0- 3.0
Baltimore           1- 2   0.333                              1.0- 2.0
Tampa Bay           0- 3   0.000                              0.0- 3.0
Toronto             2- 1   0.667                              2.0- 1.0


totals             75-48   0.610        39    22.2-16.8      97.2-64.8

 

CUBS go 97-65 and finish in first place. Remember, you heard it here first !!

[otis89]

Fred, Marquis will be starting the Friday game against the Nationals.

[Warren Brusstar]

Aren't a lot of Sept. games on the road, though? Hope we can keep up the improved road play. I have tickets to the Sept. 18 Brewers game, and I'd love for those games to be meaningless at that point.

 

Highly unlikely. They would need to have a lead of more than 10 games for that to be a meaningless game.

 

I think a reasonable goal is to clinch near the end of the Cardinals series that follows.

[Fred Hornkohl]

Fred, Marquis will be starting the Friday game against the Nationals.

 

Thanx. I went back and changed it. :wink:

[rawaction]

If the Cubs win the Philly (4 games) and Washington series, and split against the rest of the teams on their schedule (only 3 w/ Pirates, but doesn't matter), they will not finish the season with a losing record against any team in the NL.

[Bull]

number of wins to clinch playoff spot (wildcard) is 30.

[BleacherBadger]

A prediction, based on linear extrapolation...........

 

Dangerous my friend, dangerous.