Dunn to the Dbacks

[Outshined_One]

So O_O, Dunn has had enough AB's in his career to be able to find out how well or at least, what he has done with a runner on third w/less than 2 outs. I understand there is more to this that this one thing but I'm curious on how productive he is in this situation. He makes pitchers pitch which is always a valuable asset to have and hits the ball far when he hits it but I'd like to see the real value in a hitter like Dunn over a hitter like Manny.

 

Baseball Reference is awesome for this reason.

 

Link

 

If you scroll down to Bases Occupied, they have those stats. With less than two outs and a runner on third, Dunn has 253 PAs. With two outs and a runner on third, Dunn has 224 PAs. Both are small sample sizes.

 

It's also worth pointing out that Dunn has been intentionally walked in a number of those situations.

[CuseCubFan69]

So O_O, Dunn has had enough AB's in his career to be able to find out how well or at least, what he has done with a runner on third w/less than 2 outs. I understand there is more to this that this one thing but I'm curious on how productive he is in this situation.

 

.270/.403/.545

 

Thanks Jersey...Not bad. So he's making something good happen 40% of the time, is this a big difference over the average of all players in this situation?

 

do you really think that the league averages anywhere near to a .948 ops in any situation?

 

Why not?

 

I'd love have seen your face after you read that. I was just talking about the 40% IMB, not the .948 ops.

[nilodnayr]

Supposedly the two PTBNLs are on the 40 man roster, one a MLB ready pitcher and one a position player

 

http://thelotd.com/ctrent/blog/2008/08/11/players_to_be_named

 

http://arizona.diamondbacks.mlb.com/team/roster_40man.jsp?c_id=ari

 

 

Decent chance one of the PTBNLs is Owings or Scherzer.

[Jehrico]

How many good 3-4-5 hitters hit weak grounders to the Pitcher?

DLee? He's got 22, 14 shy of the record. He's on a pace for around 30-31 GIDP. Only 4 guys have GIDP more than 31 times in a season before, one of them twice.

[CuseCubFan69]

So O_O, Dunn has had enough AB's in his career to be able to find out how well or at least, what he has done with a runner on third w/less than 2 outs. I understand there is more to this that this one thing but I'm curious on how productive he is in this situation. He makes pitchers pitch which is always a valuable asset to have and hits the ball far when he hits it but I'd like to see the real value in a hitter like Dunn over a hitter like Manny.

 

Baseball Reference is awesome for this reason.

 

Link

 

If you scroll down to Bases Occupied, they have those stats. With less than two outs and a runner on third, Dunn has 253 PAs. With two outs and a runner on third, Dunn has 224 PAs. Both are small sample sizes.

 

It's also worth pointing out that Dunn has been intentionally walked in a number of those situations.

 

 

Thanks O_O, that's pretty cool. It looks as if Dunn struggles a bit in September, I wonder if being out of the race all the time has anything to do with it?

[imb]

So O_O, Dunn has had enough AB's in his career to be able to find out how well or at least, what he has done with a runner on third w/less than 2 outs. I understand there is more to this that this one thing but I'm curious on how productive he is in this situation.

 

.270/.403/.545

 

Thanks Jersey...Not bad. So he's making something good happen 40% of the time, is this a big difference over the average of all players in this situation?

 

do you really think that the league averages anywhere near to a .948 ops in any situation?

 

Why not?

 

I'd love have seen your face after you read that. I was just talking about the 40% IMB, not the .948 ops.

 

i really, really doubt that the entire league averages a .400 OBP in any situation, too. go look if you think otherwise.

[Jehrico]

Supposedly the two PTBNLs are on the 40 man roster, one a MLB ready pitcher and one a position player

 

http://thelotd.com/ctrent/blog/2008/08/11/players_to_be_named

 

http://arizona.diamondbacks.mlb.com/team/roster_40man.jsp?c_id=ari

 

 

Decent chance one of the PTBNLs is Owings or Scherzer.

I'll laugh my butt off if Cincy traded Dunn for Owings, Buck and a fluff piece. Buck isn't anything to get excited about, Owings is a better hitting version of Mike Hampton after he signed with Colorado.

[Tracer Bullet]

Once again, an out is not an out in real life. It depends on the situation. A DP is 2 outs.

 

Just answer this, would you rather have Dunn hit a fly ball to the OF or K w/ a runner at third w/less than 2 outs?

 

In a single AB, if the choices are K or long fly ball, with a runner on 3rd and < 2 outs, obviously you pick the latter. But that's not the way it works. Over the course of the season, he's likely to put up roughly the same numbers in those situations as he does all the other times.

 

My point is - if you have a choice of Dunn taking the same approach in those situations as he does all the other PAs during the season or completely changing his approach, I'd pick the former. I want the guy with an OBP-heavy .900+ OPS to have the same approach regardless of the situation. Does that mean sometimes he'll K in a situation where a fly out would be better? Sure. But he's also more likely to hit a HR or a double in those situations than a weak grounder back to the pitcher b/c he doesn't swing just to make contact.

 

How many good 3-4-5 hitters hit weak grounders to the Pitcher? I agree that Dunn is very likely to walk/homer or K half the time he's up but you really wouldn't mind watching him take strike 3 time and time again because he won't change his approach? Is there a stat that shows how productive he really is? I can understand why a lot of people think he's an impact hitter and I agree he is. But, there is a lot of negative regarding his numbers as well and I'm curious on how much his approach really helps his team. I love his OBP and power numbers and I'd love to see a good statistical breakdown of how he helps/hurts a lineup.

 

I was in a terribly long meeting, so it looks like this has been somewhat addressed, but I just want to clarify your point: you really just wanted to know his OBP/SLG breakdown with a runner on 3rd? B/c that was a very long-winded way of asking that question. What does "I love his OBP and power numbers" but you want a breakdown of how he helps/hurts a lineup mean? He has great numbers, but I want to see numbers that tell me if he hurts the team? What numbers are you looking for? Something that supports your notion that Ks are terrible?

 

Also - lots of 3/4/5 hitters hit weak grounders to the pitcher. They also make other outs in those situations that don't score runs, which are no better than Ks. As jersey (and others) posted - he has a .400 OBP and an OPS over .900 in these situations. You really think an average hitter might have a 40% OBP with runners on? What's league average for OBP in all situations - something around .330? I'm going to guess that the league average hitter doesn't jump his OBP up 70 points with a guy on 3rd.

[CuseCubFan69]

So O_O, Dunn has had enough AB's in his career to be able to find out how well or at least, what he has done with a runner on third w/less than 2 outs. I understand there is more to this that this one thing but I'm curious on how productive he is in this situation.

 

.270/.403/.545

 

Thanks Jersey...Not bad. So he's making something good happen 40% of the time, is this a big difference over the average of all players in this situation?

 

do you really think that the league averages anywhere near to a .948 ops in any situation?

 

Why not?

 

I'd love have seen your face after you read that. I was just talking about the 40% IMB, not the .948 ops.

 

i really, really doubt that the entire league averages a .400 OBP in any situation, too. go look if you think otherwise.

 

I was just curious on what the league average was. O_O just showed me a brand new site called Baseball Reference so now I can look up all this info.

[SouthSideRyan]

So O_O, Dunn has had enough AB's in his career to be able to find out how well or at least, what he has done with a runner on third w/less than 2 outs. I understand there is more to this that this one thing but I'm curious on how productive he is in this situation.

 

.270/.403/.545

 

Thanks Jersey...Not bad. So he's making something good happen 40% of the time, is this a big difference over the average of all players in this situation?

 

do you really think that the league averages anywhere near to a .948 ops in any situation?

 

Why not?

 

I'd love have seen your face after you read that. I was just talking about the 40% IMB, not the .948 ops.

 

i really, really doubt that the entire league averages a .400 OBP in any situation, too. go look if you think otherwise.

 

I was just curious on what the league average was. O_O just showed me a brand new site called Baseball Reference so now I can look up all this info.

 

Seriously? How have you survived?

[CuseCubFan69]

Once again, an out is not an out in real life. It depends on the situation. A DP is 2 outs.

 

Just answer this, would you rather have Dunn hit a fly ball to the OF or K w/ a runner at third w/less than 2 outs?

 

In a single AB, if the choices are K or long fly ball, with a runner on 3rd and < 2 outs, obviously you pick the latter. But that's not the way it works. Over the course of the season, he's likely to put up roughly the same numbers in those situations as he does all the other times.

 

My point is - if you have a choice of Dunn taking the same approach in those situations as he does all the other PAs during the season or completely changing his approach, I'd pick the former. I want the guy with an OBP-heavy .900+ OPS to have the same approach regardless of the situation. Does that mean sometimes he'll K in a situation where a fly out would be better? Sure. But he's also more likely to hit a HR or a double in those situations than a weak grounder back to the pitcher b/c he doesn't swing just to make contact.

 

How many good 3-4-5 hitters hit weak grounders to the Pitcher? I agree that Dunn is very likely to walk/homer or K half the time he's up but you really wouldn't mind watching him take strike 3 time and time again because he won't change his approach? Is there a stat that shows how productive he really is? I can understand why a lot of people think he's an impact hitter and I agree he is. But, there is a lot of negative regarding his numbers as well and I'm curious on how much his approach really helps his team. I love his OBP and power numbers and I'd love to see a good statistical breakdown of how he helps/hurts a lineup.

 

I was in a terribly long meeting, so it looks like this has been somewhat addressed, but I just want to clarify your point: you really just wanted to know his OBP/SLG breakdown with a runner on 3rd? B/c that was a very long-winded way of asking that question. What does "I love his OBP and power numbers" but you want a breakdown of how he helps/hurts a lineup mean? He has great numbers, but I want to see numbers that tell me if he hurts the team? What numbers are you looking for? Something that supports your notion that Ks are terrible?

 

Also - lots of 3/4/5 hitters hit weak grounders to the pitcher. They also make other outs in those situations that don't score runs, which are no better than Ks. As jersey (and others) posted - he has a .400 OBP and an OPS over .900 in these situations. You really think an average hitter might have a 40% OBP with runners on? What's league average for OBP in all situations - something around .330? I'm going to guess that the league average hitter doesn't jump his OBP up 70 points with a guy on 3rd.

 

Where did I say K's were terrible? I asked what the league average was not that I thought it was the league average. You're assuming info before you read what I wrote.

[CuseCubFan69]

So O_O, Dunn has had enough AB's in his career to be able to find out how well or at least, what he has done with a runner on third w/less than 2 outs. I understand there is more to this that this one thing but I'm curious on how productive he is in this situation.

 

.270/.403/.545

 

Thanks Jersey...Not bad. So he's making something good happen 40% of the time, is this a big difference over the average of all players in this situation?

 

do you really think that the league averages anywhere near to a .948 ops in any situation?

 

Why not?

 

I'd love have seen your face after you read that. I was just talking about the 40% IMB, not the .948 ops.

 

i really, really doubt that the entire league averages a .400 OBP in any situation, too. go look if you think otherwise.

 

I was just curious on what the league average was. O_O just showed me a brand new site called Baseball Reference so now I can look up all this info.

 

Seriously? How have you survived?

 

Abiskis and a slide rule.

[Guest]

Actually, K's are terrible. Everyone who argues that nothing good happens on k's (with extreme exceptions) is dead on. They are absolutely correct.

 

 

 

But they're also missing the forest for the trees.

[bukie]

Actually, K's are terrible. Everyone who argues that nothing good happens on k's (with extreme exceptions) is dead on. They are absolutely correct.

 

 

 

But they're also missing the forest for the trees.

 

Sure, unless you're striking out on a pitch headed for the backstop, not much good comes from a K, since the pitcher isn't depending on anyone else to get you out.

 

But it is still just one out.

[Derwood]

Ryan Howard had 199 K's last year and I would take him over Derrek Lee 10 times out of 10. Let's let the K thing die

[SouthSideRyan]

So O_O, Dunn has had enough AB's in his career to be able to find out how well or at least, what he has done with a runner on third w/less than 2 outs. I understand there is more to this that this one thing but I'm curious on how productive he is in this situation.

 

.270/.403/.545

 

Thanks Jersey...Not bad. So he's making something good happen 40% of the time, is this a big difference over the average of all players in this situation?

 

do you really think that the league averages anywhere near to a .948 ops in any situation?

 

Why not?

 

I'd love have seen your face after you read that. I was just talking about the 40% IMB, not the .948 ops.

 

i really, really doubt that the entire league averages a .400 OBP in any situation, too. go look if you think otherwise.

 

I was just curious on what the league average was. O_O just showed me a brand new site called Baseball Reference so now I can look up all this info.

 

Seriously? How have you survived?

 

Abiskis and a slide rule.

 

Search, explore, enjoy. You'll be occupied for the better part of the next month.

[David]

Ryan Howard had 199 K's last year and I would take him over Derrek Lee 10 times out of 10. Let's let the K thing die

 

FWIW, for as bad as a lot of people here think DLee has been this year, Howard has been worse.

 

 

Granted, Howard is younger and has been significantly better over his career, but I just thought it was an odd time to pick that name out.

[Derwood]

Ryan Howard had 199 K's last year and I would take him over Derrek Lee 10 times out of 10. Let's let the K thing die

 

FWIW, for as bad as a lot of people here think DLee has been this year, Howard has been worse.

 

 

Granted, Howard is younger and has been significantly better over his career, but I just thought it was an odd time to pick that name out.

 

i was referring to last year, obviously. either way, your sluggers are almost always going to K a lot

[David]

IMO, most good hitters are going to K a good amount of the time because they are in so many deep counts.

 

It's probably really rare, and more of an anomaly than a virtue of any sort, for a very good (productive) hitter to have a very low strikeout rate.

Edited August 12, 2008 by David

[David]

In other words, broadly speaking, I typically want nothing to do with the super-low strikeout hitters because they most likely aren't doing much working of the count.

[Derwood]

a look at the year-end leader boards for most K's is likely to be heavily populate with all-stars

[Tracer Bullet]

Actually, K's are terrible. Everyone who argues that nothing good happens on k's (with extreme exceptions) is dead on. They are absolutely correct.

 

 

 

But they're also missing the forest for the trees.

 

 

I've never heard someone argue ks are a fantastic result. But on the scale of terrible things, ks aren't worse than other outs, at least not significantly so.

[Tracer Bullet]

Once again, an out is not an out in real life. It depends on the situation. A DP is 2 outs.

 

Just answer this, would you rather have Dunn hit a fly ball to the OF or K w/ a runner at third w/less than 2 outs?

 

In a single AB, if the choices are K or long fly ball, with a runner on 3rd and < 2 outs, obviously you pick the latter. But that's not the way it works. Over the course of the season, he's likely to put up roughly the same numbers in those situations as he does all the other times.

 

My point is - if you have a choice of Dunn taking the same approach in those situations as he does all the other PAs during the season or completely changing his approach, I'd pick the former. I want the guy with an OBP-heavy .900+ OPS to have the same approach regardless of the situation. Does that mean sometimes he'll K in a situation where a fly out would be better? Sure. But he's also more likely to hit a HR or a double in those situations than a weak grounder back to the pitcher b/c he doesn't swing just to make contact.

 

How many good 3-4-5 hitters hit weak grounders to the Pitcher? I agree that Dunn is very likely to walk/homer or K half the time he's up but you really wouldn't mind watching him take strike 3 time and time again because he won't change his approach? Is there a stat that shows how productive he really is? I can understand why a lot of people think he's an impact hitter and I agree he is. But, there is a lot of negative regarding his numbers as well and I'm curious on how much his approach really helps his team. I love his OBP and power numbers and I'd love to see a good statistical breakdown of how he helps/hurts a lineup.

 

I was in a terribly long meeting, so it looks like this has been somewhat addressed, but I just want to clarify your point: you really just wanted to know his OBP/SLG breakdown with a runner on 3rd? B/c that was a very long-winded way of asking that question. What does "I love his OBP and power numbers" but you want a breakdown of how he helps/hurts a lineup mean? He has great numbers, but I want to see numbers that tell me if he hurts the team? What numbers are you looking for? Something that supports your notion that Ks are terrible?

 

Also - lots of 3/4/5 hitters hit weak grounders to the pitcher. They also make other outs in those situations that don't score runs, which are no better than Ks. As jersey (and others) posted - he has a .400 OBP and an OPS over .900 in these situations. You really think an average hitter might have a 40% OBP with runners on? What's league average for OBP in all situations - something around .330? I'm going to guess that the league average hitter doesn't jump his OBP up 70 points with a guy on 3rd.

 

Where did I say K's were terrible? I asked what the league average was not that I thought it was the league average. You're assuming info before you read what I wrote.

 

No, I read what you wrote. Several times, in fact. That I inferred some things b/c it was difficult to understand by itself. You're pretty clearly arguing that ks are worse than other outs in the situation you described, and thus, Dunn is worse than other 3/4/5 hitters. If that's not what you meant, then I'd ask that you state your position again.

[Outshined_One]

Seriously? How have you survived?

 

Yeah, BR is pretty much one of my favorite sites on the web, especially now that they have stats and splits for minor leaguers.

[chopsx9]

Actually, K's are terrible. Everyone who argues that nothing good happens on k's (with extreme exceptions) is dead on. They are absolutely correct.

 

 

 

But they're also missing the forest for the trees.

 

 

Only if they say that Dunn is a bad player because of it; which I don't think anybody has said.

I don't think anyone has suggested Dunn should change his approach - at this point his game is what it is. He hits a ton of home runs and walks a lot which are fantastic. He strikes out a lot and is a terrible defender which is bad. The good outweighs the bad at this point and he is a very productive player - but that doesn't change the fact that SO's are bad and should not simply be dismissed, especially in the quantities in which Dunn accumulates them.