Would you trade Lee?

[treebird]

it would be really convenient if kosuke decided to do the "second year japanese power surge thing" and hit 20 home runs next year.

[rchap24]

it would be really convenient if kosuke decided to do the "second year japanese power surge thing" and hit 20 home runs next year.

 

Ha that would also solve our corner outfield with pop problem =D>

[TheDude]

Even with Lee's down year there's not as many viable alternatives than I would have guessed.

 

Lee's down year still projects at 22 HR, 37 2B, 90 Runs, 89 RBI, and .833 OPS. That level of production (assuming all others remain constant) puts Lee at 12th in the MLB for 1B in OPS.

 

You say that like it's a good thing.

 

It is a good thing, but not a great thing. Anytime you get above average league production from a position player having an off-year, it's a good thing. No realistic expectations of Lee would have included 2005-like production. An .870 OPS was probably a good expected baseline for Lee for 2008. And there are still at least 15 other starters at first base with worse production so far this year.

 

Lee's production this year is basically a microcosm of the entire team. There isn't an everyday player in the field on this team that anyone would say is a top 10 overall player, MLB-wide. Maybe not top 20. One illustration: do a sort on OPS for all MLB players and the first Cub you hit is Aramis Ramirez at 39th (Soriano has too few ABs to qualify officially).

 

But the team is 2nd in MLB for team OPS, which is .802. 2nd in Runs. 1st in OBP. That's with Ramirez and Lee having down years.

 

Hendry built a strong team without a genuine star in the field. Obviously if you can make the team better, trade Lee and sign Texiera. But the trade would not be a dump or forced move, and it would only happen on Hendry's terms, which are probably going to be too high, even if half the league could use Lee as an upgrade.

[jersey cubs fan]

Even with Lee's down year there's not as many viable alternatives than I would have guessed.

 

Lee's down year still projects at 22 HR, 37 2B, 90 Runs, 89 RBI, and .833 OPS. That level of production (assuming all others remain constant) puts Lee at 12th in the MLB for 1B in OPS.

 

You say that like it's a good thing.

 

It is a good thing, but not a great thing. Anytime you get above average league production from a position player having an off-year, it's a good thing. No realistic expectations of Lee would have included 2005-like production. An .870 OPS was probably a good expected baseline for Lee for 2008. And there are still at least 15 other starters at first base with worse production so far this year.

 

Lee's production this year is basically a microcosm of the entire team. There isn't an everyday player in the field on this team that anyone would say is a top 10 overall player, MLB-wide. Maybe not top 20. One illustration: do a sort on OPS for all MLB players and the first Cub you hit is Aramis Ramirez at 39th (Soriano has too few ABs to qualify officially).

 

But the team is 2nd in MLB for team OPS, which is .802. 2nd in Runs. 1st in OBP. That's with Ramirez and Lee having down years.

 

Hendry built a strong team without a genuine star in the field. Obviously if you can make the team better, trade Lee and sign Texiera. But the trade would not be a dump or forced move, and it would only happen on Hendry's terms, which are probably going to be too high, even if half the league could use Lee as an upgrade.

 

I want much better than average for any highly paid player. And I'm not so sure this is an off year as much as it's a reasonably expected year from a soon-to-be 33 year old who has only had one great season in his career.

[rawaction]

Even with Lee's down year there's not as many viable alternatives than I would have guessed.

 

Lee's down year still projects at 22 HR, 37 2B, 90 Runs, 89 RBI, and .833 OPS. That level of production (assuming all others remain constant) puts Lee at 12th in the MLB for 1B in OPS.

 

You say that like it's a good thing.

 

It is a good thing, but not a great thing. Anytime you get above average league production from a position player having an off-year, it's a good thing. No realistic expectations of Lee would have included 2005-like production. An .870 OPS was probably a good expected baseline for Lee for 2008. And there are still at least 15 other starters at first base with worse production so far this year.

 

Lee's production this year is basically a microcosm of the entire team. There isn't an everyday player in the field on this team that anyone would say is a top 10 overall player, MLB-wide. Maybe not top 20. One illustration: do a sort on OPS for all MLB players and the first Cub you hit is Aramis Ramirez at 39th (Soriano has too few ABs to qualify officially).

 

But the team is 2nd in MLB for team OPS, which is .802. 2nd in Runs. 1st in OBP. That's with Ramirez and Lee having down years.

 

Hendry built a strong team without a genuine star in the field. Obviously if you can make the team better, trade Lee and sign Texiera. But the trade would not be a dump or forced move, and it would only happen on Hendry's terms, which are probably going to be too high, even if half the league could use Lee as an upgrade.

 

I want much better than average for any highly paid player. And I'm not so sure this is an off year as much as it's a reasonably expected year from a soon-to-be 33 year old who has only had one great season in his career.

 

Agreed. But that doesn't mean you trade him for a younger, more expensive player who is marginally better.

[jersey cubs fan]

Even with Lee's down year there's not as many viable alternatives than I would have guessed.

 

Lee's down year still projects at 22 HR, 37 2B, 90 Runs, 89 RBI, and .833 OPS. That level of production (assuming all others remain constant) puts Lee at 12th in the MLB for 1B in OPS.

 

You say that like it's a good thing.

 

It is a good thing, but not a great thing. Anytime you get above average league production from a position player having an off-year, it's a good thing. No realistic expectations of Lee would have included 2005-like production. An .870 OPS was probably a good expected baseline for Lee for 2008. And there are still at least 15 other starters at first base with worse production so far this year.

 

Lee's production this year is basically a microcosm of the entire team. There isn't an everyday player in the field on this team that anyone would say is a top 10 overall player, MLB-wide. Maybe not top 20. One illustration: do a sort on OPS for all MLB players and the first Cub you hit is Aramis Ramirez at 39th (Soriano has too few ABs to qualify officially).

 

But the team is 2nd in MLB for team OPS, which is .802. 2nd in Runs. 1st in OBP. That's with Ramirez and Lee having down years.

 

Hendry built a strong team without a genuine star in the field. Obviously if you can make the team better, trade Lee and sign Texiera. But the trade would not be a dump or forced move, and it would only happen on Hendry's terms, which are probably going to be too high, even if half the league could use Lee as an upgrade.

 

I want much better than average for any highly paid player. And I'm not so sure this is an off year as much as it's a reasonably expected year from a soon-to-be 33 year old who has only had one great season in his career.

 

Agreed. But that doesn't mean you trade him for a younger, more expensive player who is marginally better.

 

I think Texeira is more than marginally better. And considering he just turned 28 this season, while Lee turns 33 this season, he's going to remain better for a fair amount of time. Plus, it's not a 1 for 1 trade, it's trade Lee for something good and then sign Teixeira, thus, improving 1b while also getting improvement elsewhere.

[TheHawk]

I would not be opposed at all to trading Lee.

[imb]

There's no market for lee at his salary, age and production

 

even if we traded him with the idea of going after Teix in the offseason, the chances that we strikeout on that play are just as high if not higher than the chances of us signing him

 

and then what, hoffpauir at first? no thanks.

 

Lee+whatever for Teix who agrees to sign longterm? yes please. But i dont see Lee accepting a trade and i don't see Hendry wanting to trade him

[Amazing_Grace]

The only issue I have is the timing issue. If I could be promised to swap them, I'd almost certainly do it and pick up the extra prospects. However, if one side falls through, I either have 2 expensive first baseman, or a big hole at first base. It's a massive risk that I'm not sure can be mitigated enough to be worth the benefit.

 

My issue is how many teams will be looking for a first baseman this offseason? Baltimore? San Francisco? Perhaps Kansas City? Unless Billy Butler can show why he was a former uber prospect. Maybe the Yankees. Maybe Detroit.

 

Personally I would like to see Perry and Lee work on Lee's swing. For a big guy, he shouldn't be putting the ball on ground, he should be booming them onto Waveland. But apparently this yr, Lee has decided he rather be like Willie Mays Hays instead of Pedro Serrano.

 

I don't know, his numbers seem to be hovering around his career stats, and wouldn't be surprising to see him stick around there. I really wouldn't mind the Cubs looking for a new #3 after this season since the power boosts from guys like Fontenot and Edmonds aren't something you can really count on. Lee would still make a damn fine #2 or #5 hitter, though I have no idea where the Cubs could get another big bat to play. Fukudome's basically blocking that option.

 

I almost guarantee you Fukudome will be moved to CF in the offseason. The Cubs will have no CF, and will need a power bat. Milton Bradley will be a FA after this season. I'd go hard after him and then keep Reed Johnson around in case of an injury. We can then go get a 5th OF or use Hoffpauir in that role. I'd also consider trading DeRosa and trying for BRoberts again this offseason.

 

Lee is starting to look like a right handed Mark Grace. Now, that's not a horrible thing, but that's not what you want out of your #3 hitter. In all honesty, Ramirez should be hitting 3rd with Lee 4th this year.

[bannor10]

IMO Lee is player that should be batting 5th. He's a good player but is not a slugger to be batting 4th and is just not good enough to be batting third..

 

If the Cubs trade him in the offseason it would selling him at a good point to get some value. Of course you have replace him and that is going to cost the Cubbies major cash and of course our farm system has little options.

 

how about DLee for Matt Cain....?

[NCCubFan]

I almost guarantee you Fukudome will be moved to CF in the offseason. The Cubs will have no CF, and will need a power bat.

Yes they will, Felix Pie.

[badnews]

I actually don't expect much at this point from the rest of Lee's tenure as a Cub. Look at his power numbers away from Wrigley 2007-2008. Not good.

 

The problem is, I've always been predisposed to shortchange 1st base. It's not a position that I think is a good idea to pay a ton of money for considering the *relative* ease of bargain shopping and getting above average production there. Another poster here said Teixeira was in line for a 7/150 contract and I agree that sounds about right. It doesn't seem like a wise use of resources. That kind of money I usually think should be spent on premium defensive positions.

 

Plus, I think the importance of Teixeira's defense is overstated. He'd almost be a better value if he was a butcher at first base you'd have to think, because his defense is somewhat overrated, you get the feeling he's getting an extra $4-5 million a year just because of that "Gold Glove" tag.

 

Now, I haven't crunched the numbers, so let me ask those who are inclined to do so. If Teixeira gets a 7/150 contract and Adam Dunn gets a 6/100 contract, would it be smarter to get Dunn for that price, put him at 1st base, and accept the fact that a little less offense and a drop in defense is worth saving that $50 million?

 

I'm not saying it is. I'm asking if it would be. I wonder if Dunn will even get 6 years, it seems like the guy does not generate the excitement commensurate to his production.

[Amazing_Grace]

I almost guarantee you Fukudome will be moved to CF in the offseason. The Cubs will have no CF, and will need a power bat.

Yes they will, Felix Pie.

 

I was assuming Pie would be traded, and I still think he will be this offseason.

 

If Piniella is still the manager next season, Pie will not be starting in CF. He thought so little of Pie that he put Reed Johnson, a guy claimed off waivers with horrible splits against RH, in for him after only about 25 abs. Personally, I'm not convinced Pie will be able to hit ML pitching unless he learns some patience, and there's no evidence he has done that at AAA this season (.333 OBP with a .287 BA, and 37 K's to only 14 BBs).

 

I wouldn't mind Pie as a 4th OF/injury substitution, but honestly, I think an organization like the Cubs that will already be getting relatively cheap production at SS, C, and 2b can afford to do better than a great defense/easy out CF. If I'm the GM, I leave Pie in Iowa with an ultimatum to either learn some plate discipline or you won't see the bigs with this team.

[Guest]

I almost guarantee you Fukudome will be moved to CF in the offseason. The Cubs will have no CF, and will need a power bat.

Yes they will, Felix Pie.

 

I was assuming Pie would be traded, and I still think he will be this offseason.

 

If Piniella is still the manager next season, Pie will not be starting in CF. He thought so little of Pie that he put Reed Johnson, a guy claimed off waivers with horrible splits against RH, in for him after only about 25 abs. Personally, I'm not convinced Pie will be able to hit ML pitching unless he learns some patience, and there's no evidence he has done that at AAA this season (.333 OBP with a .287 BA, and 37 K's to only 14 BBs).

 

I wouldn't mind Pie as a 4th OF/injury substitution, but honestly, I think an organization like the Cubs that will already be getting relatively cheap production at SS, C, and 2b can afford to do better than a great defense/easy out CF. If I'm the GM, I leave Pie in Iowa with an ultimatum to either learn some plate discipline or you won't see the bigs with this team.

 

Yeah, I get the feeling Pie's days in the organization are numbered.

[rchap24]

I almost guarantee you Fukudome will be moved to CF in the offseason. The Cubs will have no CF, and will need a power bat.

Yes they will, Felix Pie.

 

I was assuming Pie would be traded, and I still think he will be this offseason.

 

If Piniella is still the manager next season, Pie will not be starting in CF. He thought so little of Pie that he put Reed Johnson, a guy claimed off waivers with horrible splits against RH, in for him after only about 25 abs. Personally, I'm not convinced Pie will be able to hit ML pitching unless he learns some patience, and there's no evidence he has done that at AAA this season (.333 OBP with a .287 BA, and 37 K's to only 14 BBs).

 

I wouldn't mind Pie as a 4th OF/injury substitution, but honestly, I think an organization like the Cubs that will already be getting relatively cheap production at SS, C, and 2b can afford to do better than a great defense/easy out CF. If I'm the GM, I leave Pie in Iowa with an ultimatum to either learn some plate discipline or you won't see the bigs with this team.

 

Yeah, I get the feeling Pie's days in the organization are numbered.

 

Agreed totally...and if we trade him this off season why why be able to trade him for something pretty decent in another area.

[badnews]

I don't think Pie has much trade value at all. Think about what you'd want to give up for somebody like Jeremy Reed in 2006, that's pretty much where Pie is it seems. Heck, Carlos Quentin was a better prospect than Pie ever has been and Quentin fetched very little relatively in that trade.

[Amazing_Grace]

I don't think Pie has much trade value at all. Think about what you'd want to give up for somebody like Jeremy Reed in 2006, that's pretty much where Pie is it seems. Heck, Carlos Quentin was a better prospect than Pie ever has been and Quentin fetched very little relatively in that trade.

 

This is quite true. His value would have been higher had he been dealt last season or this offseason. At this point, what we'll probably be able to get is a bullpen arm or a marginal pitching prospect. I have a great deal more confidence in this organization's ability to develop pitchers, so that wouldn't be a bad thing.

[chopsx9]

=

 

would it be smarter to get Dunn for that price, put him at 1st base, and accept the fact that a little less offense and a drop in defense is worth saving that $50 million?

 

I'm not saying it is. I'm asking if it would be. I wonder if Dunn will even get 6 years, it seems like the guy does not generate the excitement commensurate to his production.

 

Not commenting on the oppurtunity cost but I have seen more than one quote from scouts that have said Dunn is incapable of playing 1st base at the major league level. You'd think the Reds would have put him there by now if he could - how much worse of an outfielder could Joey Votto be?

[chopsx9]

=

 

would it be smarter to get Dunn for that price, put him at 1st base, and accept the fact that a little less offense and a drop in defense is worth saving that $50 million?

 

I'm not saying it is. I'm asking if it would be. I wonder if Dunn will even get 6 years, it seems like the guy does not generate the excitement commensurate to his production.

 

Not commenting on the oppurtunity cost but I have seen more than one quote from scouts that have said Dunn is incapable of playing 1st base at the major league level. You'd think the Reds would have put him there by now if he could - how much worse of an outfielder could Joey Votto be?