Re: College Basketball 2008-2009

[CubInOK]

I've got 16 teams as locks barring nuclear holocaust.

 

Duke

Wake

UNC

UConn

Pitt

Louisville

Marquette

Gonzaga

Memphis

UCLA

Oklahoma

Xavier

Kansas

Clemson

Butler

Davidson

 

This isn't to say they're in unless they lose every game the rest of the way, but they aren't missing the tourney unless they lose a hell of a lot of games that they shouldn't.

 

18-27 at large bids remain.

Where is Texas on this list?

[ISUCubsFan]

Bracketbuster matchups are out. The only two of actual bracket importance are probably Butler @ Davidson and Utah St. @ St. Mary's. Maybe you can include UNI @ Siena, since I could see the Saints sneaking in as an at-large. Butler is playing for seeding, and Davidson would probably lock up a bid with a win. Even if they lose I think they're in if they avoid two conference losses, and there's about a 4% chance of that happening looking at Pomeroy right now. Utah St. @ St. Mary's is huge for both teams if they don't plan on winning their conference tourneys.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/news/story?id=3880198

[Derwood]

latest Bracketology has PSU getting an 11 seed and facing Tennessee in the first round.

[SouthSideRyan]

Texas isn't on it because the Big 12 is bad and their remaining schedule has 3 sure victories on it.

 

Exile nailed what I was talking about with Davidson. Their resume is loads better than last year's and they would've been solidly in as an at large last year.

 

And again, my point isn't that Davidson can lose 3 games and be in while MSU can't. My point is that there's pretty much no chance Davidson loses more than one game until the tournament. Pomeroy gives them better than 75% chance of finishing with 0.

[hawkeyecub]

I think what most Big Ten fans are missing is that the gap between the best team (say, MSU or Purdue) and the 10th best team (say, Iowa) is small enough that any team can beat any other team on even a slight off-night by the other team. Cases in point: MSU at home vs. NU and PSU, Illinois and PSU at home vs. Iowa (although both ended up being wins, both were tight games throughout). And really, at the halfway point of the conference season, any of the ten teams can still make a run for the tournament (ok, except maybe Iowa...but if they somehow won out, they'd still make it).

 

Iowa could make the NIT with a bit of a run (won't happen) but their shot at the NCAA's is the BTT.

 

I'd say they need at least 18 wins(including a BTT win) for an NIT berth. I'm having a hard time finding 5 regular season wins out there.

 

@IU, NU, and UM are reasonable. After that it looks like a few longshots. Wisky has been bad lately, but Kohl is still Kohl. OSU hasn't looked great without Lighty, but he has an outside chance of being back by March 3rd, and they'll likely be playing for their tourney lives. With Iowa's offense, an upset is never out of the picture if they get hot from 3, but the flipside is they can be beat by worse teams if the opposite happens.

 

Well they'd have to win both this week, at Indiana and Northwestern at home.

 

Then you've gotta get Michigan at home and two of the final three (At Northwestern, Ohio State at home, Penn State at home). If Tate is back that's all certainly possible, Pomeroy gives them a better than 50% chance in five.

 

That would get them to 17-14, 7-11 and still probably short of the NIT, unless they had some kind of run in the BTT and losing in the final. In '07 Iowa went 17-14, 9-7 in the Big Ten with Haluska and Tyler Smith and didn't get an NIT invite.

Blown leads late and 4 losses against probable Tournament teams by a combined 12 points will keep them out of the postseason. Well maybe they'll get an invite to that stupid CBI.

[rchap24]

latest Bracketology has PSU getting an 11 seed and facing Tennessee in the first round.

 

That's a winnable game

[bukie]

Warning: Illini-related post...

 

The Illini have struggled on offense over the past month (relative to earlier in the year). The biggest problem on offense would appear to be Alex Legion, who is the most inefficient offensive player on the team while he's on the floor, and yet ends the highest % of offensive sets (%Poss, a measure of possessions ended by missed/made shots). He's shooting 31% from the field overall, and 23% from 3-point range, and only 50% from the foul line. What's up with him?

[UMFan83]

Bottom 3 teams in the Big East (South Florida, Rutgers, DePaul) record vs. DePaul: 3-0

Bottom 3 teams in the Big East (South Florida, Rutgers, DePaul) record vs. all other BE teams: 0-24

[bukie]

Bottom 3 teams in the Big East (South Florida, Rutgers, DePaul) record vs. DePaul: 3-0

Bottom 3 teams in the Big East (South Florida, Rutgers, DePaul) record vs. all other BE teams: 0-24

Well, at least DePaul hasn't beaten themselves to this point.

[apete6]

Bottom 3 teams in the Big East (South Florida, Rutgers, DePaul) record vs. DePaul: 3-0

Bottom 3 teams in the Big East (South Florida, Rutgers, DePaul) record vs. all other BE teams: 0-24

Well, at least DePaul hasn't beaten themselves to this point.

 

No, they've taken care of that several times, especially the loss to powerhouse Morgan State. They're a freaking joke.

[Derwood]

i'm truly ashamed of being a DePaul alum during basketball season

[SouthSideRyan]

Warning: Illini-related post...

 

The Illini have struggled on offense over the past month (relative to earlier in the year). The biggest problem on offense would appear to be Alex Legion, who is the most inefficient offensive player on the team while he's on the floor, and yet ends the highest % of offensive sets (%Poss, a measure of possessions ended by missed/made shots). He's shooting 31% from the field overall, and 23% from 3-point range, and only 50% from the foul line. What's up with him?

 

At least againt Minnesota, it seemed Bruce threw him out there and told him to keep chucking cause nobody else was scoring anyway.

 

He's been a disappointment to me, but then again, I expected him to be forced into 30 minutes per game by this point, which probably would've helped him quite a bit development wise. For now he's a nice weaopon off the bench who has the potential to get hot and go off.

[SouthSideRyan]

Bottom 3 teams in the Big East (South Florida, Rutgers, DePaul) record vs. DePaul: 3-0

Bottom 3 teams in the Big East (South Florida, Rutgers, DePaul) record vs. all other BE teams: 0-24

Well, at least DePaul hasn't beaten themselves to this point.

 

No, they've taken care of that several times, especially the loss to powerhouse Morgan State. They're a freaking joke.

 

It's okay, Lenti Ponsetto said Wainwright has the team headed in the right direction.

[snoodmonger]

KU with a good win @ Baylor yesterday. The easy portion of the Big 12 schedule is over now, though. We still have two games against Mizzou on the books, @KSU (looks tougher than I thought), @OU, and home vs UT. Tricky Okie State is also coming to Lawrence, and we struggle w them.

[SouthSideRyan]

Games of interest tonight:

 

Purdue @ OSU

 

Purdue can tie MSU for 1st in Big Ten and pretty much lock up a tourney berth. OSU can get their marquee win, and put themselves in line for the tourney.

 

SDSU @ UNLV

 

SDSU probably needs it more as UNLV has a win at Louisville on their resume. Both are firmly on the bubble, and the winner probably pulls ahead for a chance at being an at-large.

 

Miss St. @ UK

 

Miss St. has the record of a bubble team, but not the resume. Their best win is either Houston or Vandy. A win here, and plowing through the awful SEC West could give them a chance.(though not a very good one) A loss by Kentucky and they should start looking over their shoulders. This is a team that should coast to 22-23 wins(pre tourney), but suffering their 3rd in a row would make things a little worrisome.

 

South Carolina @ Florida

 

I think South Carolina has the best resume in the SEC right now following their win at UK. A win at Florida definitely puts them tops for me. Florida has a win over Washington and nothing else. They need to pick up quality wins wherever they can.

[CubInOK]

KU with a good win @ Baylor yesterday. The easy portion of the Big 12 schedule is over now, though. We still have two games against Mizzou on the books, @KSU (looks tougher than I thought), @OU, and home vs UT. Tricky Okie State is also coming to Lawrence, and we struggle w them.

You'll be fine against the orange-wearing inbreds. They have no height to speak of whatsoever. Aldrich will dominate them.

[hawkeyecub]

A Michigan State fan has compiled player ratings for the top 50 players in the Big Ten based on the NBA.com Player Efficiency tool. It's based only on conference games, updated through Sunday.

 

Not perfect, but interesting.

 

1. Evan Turner, Ohio State - 20.44

2. JaJuan Johnson, Purdue - 17.88

3. Goran Suton, Michigan State - 17.33

4. Talor Battle, Penn State - 17.22

5. Matt Gatens, Iowa - 15.88

 

6. Craig Moore, Northwestern - 15.78

7. Kevin Coble, Northwestern - 15.33

8. Kalin Lucas, Michigan State - 15.22

9. Joe Krabbenhoft, Wisconsin - 15.00

10. Jamelle Cornley, Penn State - 14.22

 

11. Manny Harris, Michigan - 14.10

12. Robbie Hummel, Purdue - 14.00

13. Jon Diebler, Ohio State - 13.89

14. William Buford, Ohio State - 13.67

15t. Stanley Pringle, Penn State - 13.33

15t. Marcus Landry, Wisconsin - 13.57

 

17. DeShawn Sims, Michigan - 13.30

18. E'Twaun Moore, Purdue - 13.25

19. Demetri McCamey, Illinois - 13.22

20. Lawrence Westbrook, Minnesota - 13.00

 

21. Raymar Morgan, Michigan State - 12.38

22t. Mike Davis, Illinois - 12.00

22t. Jeff Peterson, Iowa - 12.00

24t. Mike Tisdale, Illinois - 11.89

24t. Damian Johnson, Minnesota - 11.89

 

26. B.J. Mullens, Ohio State - 11.44

27. Ralph Sampson, Minnesota - 10.56

28. Tom Pritchard, Indiana - 10.50

29. Michael Thompson, Northwestern - 10.44

30. Trevon Hughes, Wisconsin - 10.00

 

31. Al Nolen, Minnesota - 9.89

32. Trent Meachem, Illinois - 9.56

33. David Palmer, Iowa - 9.50

34. Jason Bohannon, Wisconsin - 9.44

35. Chester Frazier, Illinois - 9.11

 

36t. Kyle Taber, Indiana - 9.00

36t. Chris Kramer, Purdue - 9.00

38. Zack Novak, Michigan - 8.89

39. Jon Leuer, Wisconsin - 8.78

40. Paul Carter, Minnesota - 8.67

 

41. Andrew Jones, Penn State - 8.44

42t. Devan Dumes, Indiana - 8.38

42t. Verdell Jones, Indiana - 8.38

44. Jeramie Simmons, Ohio State - 8.22

45t. Calvin Brock, Illinois - 7.89

45t. Durrell Summers, Michigan State - 7.89

 

47. Nick Williams, Indiana - 7.88

48. Delvon Roe, Michigan State - 7.78

49. Matt Roth, Indiana - 7.75

50. Travis Walton, Michigan State - 7.22

 

[illiniguy]

I've got 16 teams as locks barring nuclear holocaust.

 

Duke

Wake

UNC

UConn

Pitt

Louisville

Marquette

Gonzaga

Memphis

UCLA

Oklahoma

Xavier

Kansas

Clemson

Butler

Davidson

 

This isn't to say they're in unless they lose every game the rest of the way, but they aren't missing the tourney unless they lose a hell of a lot of games that they shouldn't.

 

18-27 at large bids remain.

This has to be a joke. Who the hell has KU beaten to make them a lock at this point? Washington. If they are a lock, Illinois with the same record and a wins ove Purdue at Purdue would make them a lock as well. Also what the hell has Davidson done but lose to a bunch of good teams before their conference started?

[Smack]

lol at Kramer

[snoodmonger]

I knew IG would gravitate to KU being on that list.

[illiniguy]

I knew IG would gravitate to KU being on that list.

Lol, it's more that they are on and we aren't. We have the same record. We played the same teams in a couple of spots. We both beat Kent State. You guys did at home and by more. We both beat Jackson State. We won by more. We both lost to MSU at MSU. We kept it close, they blew you out. We have the same record, but you are a lock. Explain that to me. Oh and we are ranked higher.

[TruffleShuffle]

I knew IG would gravitate to KU being on that list.

Lol, it's more that they are on and we aren't. We have the same record. We played the same teams in a couple of spots. We both beat Kent State. You guys did at home and by more. We both beat Jackson State. We won by more. We both lost to MSU at MSU. We kept it close, they blew you out. We have the same record, but you are a lock. Explain that to me. Oh and we are ranked higher.

 

rankings are pointless, but their RPIs are basically equal. the only reason i could see having kansas on the list is because they're 7-0 in the big xii; illinois is 6-3 in the big ten and if they finish at .500 or worse in the conference they could miss the ncaa tourney. kansas there's pretty much no chance that they finish .500 or below in the big xii.

[illiniguy]

I knew IG would gravitate to KU being on that list.

Lol, it's more that they are on and we aren't. We have the same record. We played the same teams in a couple of spots. We both beat Kent State. You guys did at home and by more. We both beat Jackson State. We won by more. We both lost to MSU at MSU. We kept it close, they blew you out. We have the same record, but you are a lock. Explain that to me. Oh and we are ranked higher.

 

rankings are pointless, but their RPIs are basically equal. the only reason i could see having kansas on the list is because they're 7-0 in the big xii; illinois is 6-3 in the big ten and if they finish at .500 or worse in the conference they could miss the ncaa tourney. kansas there's pretty much no chance that they finish .500 or below in the big xii.

 

True, but that is more because the Big twelve is just awful. There are three tournament teams in the conference. They are one of them, they haven't played the other two yet. Hell they haven't even played the bubble team Mizzou yet. I know they will get in and they will deserve it when they do, but to say they are in now when their best win is in Kansas City against Washington seems a bit premature.

[snoodmonger]

I don't know how legit RPI is to evaluate teams--I haven't trusted it since that '05 KU team was #1 in the RPI when they were clearly not that great. And it's unclear to me how it's really used in the eval process by the committee. That said, KU is ranked one slot higher than UI, and our SOS is twelve points higher.

 

We're also 3-2 against RPI top 25, whereas UI is 0-3. (Purdue falls in at 26.)

Against RPI top 50, we're 6-2 and you're 4-3.

 

We have one terrible loss (UMass), you have none.

 

Kenpom also rates us higher by 7 spots. Our SOS is higher by 21.

 

Personally, I think SSR left UI off the list to avoid being called a homer. Assuming they don't collapse, they're gonna be in. Kenpom predicts 24-7 before the BTT, and there's no way they leaves them out in the cold.

 

I also have no confidence we would beat UI in a head to head matchup, but that's because I don't know what to expect when this KU team walks on the court.

 

And for the record, I don't think KU would necessarily deserve a bid over UI; I'm just providing some possible rationale as to why SSR thinks they might be a lock. Additionally, considering we play in the Big 12, you have to figure we have a better shot getting to the end of the season with fewer losses.

[Derwood]

how is Ed Hightower the ref in EVERY Big Ten game?