Re: College Basketball 2008-2009

[TruffleShuffle]

Pomeroy still hates PSU and only has them winning 5 more games, finishing 18-13 (they're currently 13-4).

 

i think psu wins either 7 or 8 games the rest of the way, ending up 21-10 or 20-11 going into the big ten tourney. their OOC schedule was such a joke that i think they need to end up a couple of games better and then win at least one game in the big ten tourney.

 

thing is, his projected W's and L's are hard to argue with. He has PSU beating IU twice (duh), then Minnesota, Iowa and Michigan at home. If you want to squeeze out 2 or 3 wins, you're talking about a win @ Iowa (totally doable), then maybe Wisconsin at home or @ OSU.

 

i don't think illinois is as good as they're rated right now; i actually think that penn state should beat illinois here. i don't think any of the home games (including wisconsin and michigan st) are out of reach. the only road games that are basically auto-losses are @purdue and @michigan st. @illinois is probably a loss but for some reason we seem to do okay there. i don't think there are any road games, aside from indiana, that penn state should necessarily be expected to win.

 

You should be favored at Iowa

 

His predictions have PSU losing by 2 @Iowa and by 2 at home against Wisconsin, which basically means two coin flips. By his numbers, PSU could win both

 

yeah but he also penn state at 52% to beat michigan at home, 59% to beat iowa at home and 29% to beat illinois at home. those all seem too low to me.

[Andy]

Pomeroy's ratings were pretty on the money with ND. Luke and Tory Jackson were rated our two most important players, which is true, and KMac is 3rd. The only thing that's off is Ryan Ayers is listed as our 2nd least important, which I disagree with - when Ayers isn't on we tend to have trouble (St. John's).

 

He also had us going 9-9 in the Big East, though. Which is possible but it would surprise me.

 

Louisville at Freedom Hall in 15 minutes. Harangody had 40 points last time but ND lost. Hopefully we get the W this time.

[Andy]

Louisville can suck it. The refs were absolutely horrifyingly bad on both sides. Mike Brey needs to learn to play a damn reserve once in a while. This is going to happen at the end of every close game.

[B]

Louisville can suck it. The refs were absolutely horrifyingly bad on both sides. Mike Brey needs to learn to play a damn reserve once in a while. This is going to happen at the end of every close game.

:banghead: I had N.D. +6.5. Way to blow it guys.

[CubbieBum]

Louisville can suck it. The refs were absolutely horrifyingly bad on both sides. Mike Brey needs to learn to play a damn reserve once in a while. This is going to happen at the end of every close game.

:banghead: I had N.D. +6.5. Way to blow it guys.

 

I picked ND to make more 3-pters in the ESPN Streak. Seemed safe since Notre Dame shoots 40%+ and Louisville shoots in the 30's. Like all my safe bets on the streak (home teams, highly favored teams) I lost.

[B]

Louisville can suck it. The refs were absolutely horrifyingly bad on both sides. Mike Brey needs to learn to play a damn reserve once in a while. This is going to happen at the end of every close game.

:banghead: I had N.D. +6.5. Way to blow it guys.

 

I picked ND to make more 3-pters in the ESPN Streak. Seemed safe since Notre Dame shoots 40%+ and Louisville shoots in the 30's. Like all my safe bets on the streak (home teams, highly favored teams) I lost.

yeah, i lost my streak of 7 lastnight on UNC

[CubbieBum]

Pomeroy still hates PSU and only has them winning 5 more games, finishing 18-13 (they're currently 13-4).

 

i think psu wins either 7 or 8 games the rest of the way, ending up 21-10 or 20-11 going into the big ten tourney. their OOC schedule was such a joke that i think they need to end up a couple of games better and then win at least one game in the big ten tourney.

 

thing is, his projected W's and L's are hard to argue with. He has PSU beating IU twice (duh), then Minnesota, Iowa and Michigan at home. If you want to squeeze out 2 or 3 wins, you're talking about a win @ Iowa (totally doable), then maybe Wisconsin at home or @ OSU.

 

i don't think illinois is as good as they're rated right now; i actually think that penn state should beat illinois here. i don't think any of the home games (including wisconsin and michigan st) are out of reach. the only road games that are basically auto-losses are @purdue and @michigan st. @illinois is probably a loss but for some reason we seem to do okay there. i don't think there are any road games, aside from indiana, that penn state should necessarily be expected to win.

 

You should be favored at Iowa

 

His predictions have PSU losing by 2 @Iowa and by 2 at home against Wisconsin, which basically means two coin flips. By his numbers, PSU could win both

 

yeah but he also penn state at 52% to beat michigan at home, 59% to beat iowa at home and 29% to beat illinois at home. those all seem too low to me.

 

 

I'm not sure I can trust any projection where simple math can't be done correctly.

 

http://kenpom.com/team.php?y=2009&team=Purdue

 

He has Purdue going 12-3 the rest of the way but somehow finishing 22-9 (11-7). If they go 12-3 they will be 24-7 (13-5). Makes me question what else is wrong.

[UMFan83]

Pomeroy still hates PSU and only has them winning 5 more games, finishing 18-13 (they're currently 13-4).

 

i think psu wins either 7 or 8 games the rest of the way, ending up 21-10 or 20-11 going into the big ten tourney. their OOC schedule was such a joke that i think they need to end up a couple of games better and then win at least one game in the big ten tourney.

 

thing is, his projected W's and L's are hard to argue with. He has PSU beating IU twice (duh), then Minnesota, Iowa and Michigan at home. If you want to squeeze out 2 or 3 wins, you're talking about a win @ Iowa (totally doable), then maybe Wisconsin at home or @ OSU.

 

i don't think illinois is as good as they're rated right now; i actually think that penn state should beat illinois here. i don't think any of the home games (including wisconsin and michigan st) are out of reach. the only road games that are basically auto-losses are @purdue and @michigan st. @illinois is probably a loss but for some reason we seem to do okay there. i don't think there are any road games, aside from indiana, that penn state should necessarily be expected to win.

 

You should be favored at Iowa

 

His predictions have PSU losing by 2 @Iowa and by 2 at home against Wisconsin, which basically means two coin flips. By his numbers, PSU could win both

 

yeah but he also penn state at 52% to beat michigan at home, 59% to beat iowa at home and 29% to beat illinois at home. those all seem too low to me.

 

 

I'm not sure I can trust any projection where simple math can't be done correctly.

 

http://kenpom.com/team.php?y=2009&team=Purdue

 

He has Purdue going 12-3 the rest of the way but somehow finishing 22-9 (11-7). If they go 12-3 they will be 24-7 (13-5). Makes me question what else is wrong.

 

I think the actual record is adjusted to take into account close games or something. It's not supposed to add up correctly.

[SouthSideRyan]

 

I'm not sure I can trust any projection where simple math can't be done correctly.

 

http://kenpom.com/team.php?y=2009&team=Purdue

 

He has Purdue going 12-3 the rest of the way but somehow finishing 22-9 (11-7). If they go 12-3 they will be 24-7 (13-5). Makes me question what else is wrong.

 

Maybe you should know what the hell you're looking at before criticizing.

[UMFan83]

Louisville can suck it. The refs were absolutely horrifyingly bad on both sides. Mike Brey needs to learn to play a damn reserve once in a while. This is going to happen at the end of every close game.

:banghead: I had N.D. +6.5. Way to blow it guys.

 

I picked ND to make more 3-pters in the ESPN Streak. Seemed safe since Notre Dame shoots 40%+ and Louisville shoots in the 30's. Like all my safe bets on the streak (home teams, highly favored teams) I lost.

yeah, i lost my streak of 7 lastnight on UNC

 

I'm 19-2 all time, and have a 15 game winning streak going back to last year. Only 2 in a row since it reset though. I just do it so infrequently, I only make a pick when I feel like its an absolute no brainer or I have a great feeling about a game.

 

My streak started when I picked the Dodgers in games 1 and 2 against the Cubs :(

[SouthSideRyan]

Holly Rowe has had her boob hanging out all night.

[CubbieBum]

 

I'm not sure I can trust any projection where simple math can't be done correctly.

 

http://kenpom.com/team.php?y=2009&team=Purdue

 

He has Purdue going 12-3 the rest of the way but somehow finishing 22-9 (11-7). If they go 12-3 they will be 24-7 (13-5). Makes me question what else is wrong.

 

Maybe you should know what the hell you're looking at before criticizing.

 

Or maybe you should look before talking out your arse.

 

2009 Schedule

(Game Plan)

Date Opponent Result Location Record Conf

Fri Nov 14 (273) Detroit W, 82-50 71 Home 1-0

Mon Nov 17 (306) Eastern Michigan W, 87-58 73 Home 2-0

Tue Nov 18 (191) Loyola Chicago W, 78-46 69 Home 3-0

Sat Nov 22 (280) Coppin St. W, 66-46 70 Home 4-0

Wed Nov 26 (71) Boston College W, 71-64 67 Neutral 5-0

Fri Nov 28 (16) Oklahoma L, 87-82 81 OT Neutral 5-1

Tue Dec 2 (1) Duke L, 76-60 70 Home 5-2

Sat Dec 6 (327) Arkansas Pine Bluff W, 90-42 81 Home 6-2

Tue Dec 9 (237) Ball St. W, 68-39 68 Away 7-2

Sat Dec 13 (264) Indiana St. W, 76-62 70 Home 8-2

Sat Dec 20 (39) Davidson W, 76-58 65 Semi-Home 9-2

Mon Dec 22 (213) IUPU Fort Wayne W, 70-55 62 Home 10-2

Sun Dec 28 (247) Valparaiso W, 59-45 62 Home 11-2

Tue Dec 30 (18) Illinois L, 71-67 76 OT Home 11-3 0-1

Tue Jan 6 (78) Penn St. L, 67-64 63 Away 11-4 0-2

Sun Jan 11 (36) Wisconsin W, 65-52 55 Home 12-4 1-2

Thu Jan 15 (63) Northwestern W, 60-57 63 64% Away

Sun Jan 18 (67) Iowa W, 62-53 59 87% Home

Thu Jan 22 (47) Minnesota W, 65-63 66 57% Away

Tue Jan 27 (36) Wisconsin L, 62-61 62 49% Away

Sat Jan 31 (50) Michigan W, 72-62 66 84% Home

Tue Feb 3 (45) Ohio St. W, 62-60 65 56% Away

Sun Feb 8 (18) Illinois L, 63-59 64 35% Away

Wed Feb 11 (78) Penn St. W, 71-59 65 90% Home

Sat Feb 14 (67) Iowa W, 59-56 59 66% Away

Tue Feb 17 (23) Michigan St. W, 71-66 69 69% Home

Sat Feb 21 (241) Indiana W, 73-51 68 98% Home

Thu Feb 26 (50) Michigan W, 68-66 66 59% Away

Sun Mar 1 (45) Ohio St. W, 65-57 65 82% Home

Wed Mar 4 (63) Northwestern W, 64-54 63 86% Home

Sun Mar 8 (23) Michigan St. L, 70-67 69 38% Away

 

Projected record: 22-9 11-7

 

No where on that page does he have anything explaining an adjustment. All it is is the schedule so far with his predictions the rest of the way. If you go to the blog portion where he has a bunch of explanations for things you will find one for the schedule portion. No where in that explanation does he say they are adjusted for close games. All that it says is, "Predictions are based on the current values of the adjusted efficiencies and tempo, with home court advantage factored in." He added Purdue's projected record up wrong as I said before.

[hawkeyecub]

Ugh, no he's not talking out of his ass and no Pomeroy did not add up their schedule wrong like you keep claiming.

 

I will give you a break because it doesn't say it on the new updated page, but this disclaimer has been on the bottom of the schedules for years up until Sunday:

 

"Projected record is based on chances of winning, and therefore may not conform to the

cumulative game-by-game predictions. This accounts for the unexpected results that

will inevitably happen during the season"

[SouthSideRyan]

OH MY GOD IT'S ELEMENTARY STATISTICS.

[woodchip2153]

The greatest game ever played is being shown on BTN right now. There is about 12 min left in the 2nd half.

[HenryBlanco]

KU starts the game on an 18-0 run against k-state in lawrence

[snoodmonger]

KU starts the game on an 18-0 run against k-state in lawrence

 

sweet. hopefully they'll play a complete game and not get lax.

[TruffleShuffle]

indiana should win maybe 2 big ten games this year. that team is putrid.

[Exile on Waveland]

indiana should win maybe 2 big ten games this year.

 

I'll take it!

[salukifudd]

UUhhhh...

 

http://deadspin.com/5130315/bradley-braves-jump-on-the-hot-super-bowl-shuffle-craze-thats-sweeping-the-nation

 

[-X

[bcl412]

indiana should win maybe 2 big ten games this year.

 

I'll take it!

 

They'll most likely beat Iowa at home, I don't know who else they'll get though.

[manbearcub]

UUhhhh...

 

http://deadspin.com/5130315/bradley-braves-jump-on-the-hot-super-bowl-shuffle-craze-thats-sweeping-the-nation

 

[-X

someone tell the white guy to put his shirt back on.

[TruffleShuffle]

indiana should win maybe 2 big ten games this year.

 

I'll take it!

 

They'll most likely beat Iowa at home, I don't know who else they'll get though.

 

i think their home games against northwestern, iowa, penn state and maybe illinois/ohio st are not automatic losses. they won't win a road game and they won't beat a team like purdue or michigan st. realistically i can't see them winning more than 4 games, and 1-2 is more likely.

[Exile on Waveland]

indiana should win maybe 2 big ten games this year.

 

I'll take it!

 

They'll most likely beat Iowa at home, I don't know who else they'll get though.

 

i think their home games against northwestern, iowa, penn state and maybe illinois/ohio st are not automatic losses. they won't win a road game and they won't beat a team like purdue or michigan st. realistically i can't see them winning more than 4 games, and 1-2 is more likely.

 

Illinois is probably the second best team in the conference right now. IU won't beat them.

[CubbieBum]

indiana should win maybe 2 big ten games this year.

 

I'll take it!

 

They'll most likely beat Iowa at home, I don't know who else they'll get though.

 

i think their home games against northwestern, iowa, penn state and maybe illinois/ohio st are not automatic losses. they won't win a road game and they won't beat a team like purdue or michigan st. realistically i can't see them winning more than 4 games, and 1-2 is more likely.

 

Maybe its me just being pessimistic but Purdue and IU always play close.