8-1 without Soriano; 7-5 with Soriano

[Colin Wyers]

Outs are the enemy of runs. When outs get used up, other players have fewer chances to score and drive in runs themselves. How many outs did Soriano use up last season in compiling those numbers, robbing the better hitters behind him of the chance to score and drive in runs?

 

Yes, but who are you proposing lead off instead? Lee, Ramirez and Dome aren't going to budge from their spot in the lineup. No way Lou uses Soto or DeRosa as a leadoff hitter. So you're really talking about using Theriot, Johnson or Pie as the leadoff hitter. Theriot had a lower OBP than Soriano did last season; Pie isn't exactly an on-base machine either. And Johnson, at BEST, is a league average OBP sort of hitter. Over the course of a full season, we're not talking about such a huge difference.

 

Obviously, it's not optimal to have Soriano hitting leadoff for a variety of reasons. But it's probably not in the top five of things that could be changed to improve this team.

[Chocolate Milk]

Outs are the enemy of runs. When outs get used up, other players have fewer chances to score and drive in runs themselves. How many outs did Soriano use up last season in compiling those numbers, robbing the better hitters behind him of the chance to score and drive in runs?

 

Yes, but who are you proposing lead off instead? Lee, Ramirez and Dome aren't going to budge from their spot in the lineup. No way Lou uses Soto or DeRosa as a leadoff hitter. So you're really talking about using Theriot, Johnson or Pie as the leadoff hitter. Theriot had a lower OBP than Soriano did last season; Pie isn't exactly an on-base machine either. And Johnson, at BEST, is a league average OBP sort of hitter. Over the course of a full season, we're not talking about such a huge difference.

 

Obviously, it's not optimal to have Soriano hitting leadoff for a variety of reasons. But it's probably not in the top five of things that could be changed to improve this team.

Exactly. 99% of the people here would probably prefer if Soriano didn't lead off. The rub is that the realisitc alternatives are worse. If Soriano isn't leading off, then who is? Colin's right, it's likely to be either Theriot, Johnson, or Pie. Moving Soriano down to replace him with a vastly inferior hitter isn't improving the team. Soriano is one of the more productive hitters on the team. If the back of the order continues to get on base, he'll have his opportunities. Batting him in the leadoff slot really isn't worth getting your panties in a bunch over.

[RegulusBlue]

Regulus did say that he should be batting 5-7 in the lineup, which is absurd.

 

I also don't really mind him leading off.

 

Its absurd? Isn't the best statistical lineup in baseball that which puts your OBPs in descending order? Isn't Soriano's OBP lower than Lee, Fuku, and Ramirez at least? I believe Theriot, Fontenot, and Soto have higher OBPs right now, as well.

 

How about this: Why does Aramis bat fourth? Is it because he's a "RBI-guy" that hits for power and doesn't do much running? Sounds feasible so far.

 

So how much running should the hamstring of Soriano be put through? Didn't he just tweak it on a hop? Why not just have him hit taters with people on base, or is that absurd?

 

I think its far more absurd to have him batting first, right behind the pitcher, when his power dictates that hitting safely can advance runners to home more often than other players with lower SLG%, while at the same time putting good OBP guys ahead of him to make this "runners on base" a reality.

 

Maybe I'm not headed to the asylum, after all.

[RegulusBlue]

Outs are the enemy of runs. When outs get used up, other players have fewer chances to score and drive in runs themselves. How many outs did Soriano use up last season in compiling those numbers, robbing the better hitters behind him of the chance to score and drive in runs?

 

Yes, but who are you proposing lead off instead? Lee, Ramirez and Dome aren't going to budge from their spot in the lineup. No way Lou uses Soto or DeRosa as a leadoff hitter. So you're really talking about using Theriot, Johnson or Pie as the leadoff hitter. Theriot had a lower OBP than Soriano did last season; Pie isn't exactly an on-base machine either. And Johnson, at BEST, is a league average OBP sort of hitter. Over the course of a full season, we're not talking about such a huge difference.

 

Obviously, it's not optimal to have Soriano hitting leadoff for a variety of reasons. But it's probably not in the top five of things that could be changed to improve this team.

Exactly. 99% of the people here would probably prefer if Soriano didn't lead off. The rub is that the realisitc alternatives are worse. If Soriano isn't leading off, then who is? Colin's right, it's likely to be either Theriot, Johnson, or Pie. Moving Soriano down to replace him with a vastly inferior hitter isn't improving the team. Soriano is one of the more productive hitters on the team. If the back of the order continues to get on base, he'll have his opportunities. Batting him in the leadoff slot really isn't worth getting your panties in a bunch over.

 

His name is Kosuke Fukudome, and he's in his first season with the Cubs. He plays LF and he's third in the MLB in OBP. He can also steal a base. He is from Japan.

[Chocolate Milk]

Outs are the enemy of runs. When outs get used up, other players have fewer chances to score and drive in runs themselves. How many outs did Soriano use up last season in compiling those numbers, robbing the better hitters behind him of the chance to score and drive in runs?

 

Yes, but who are you proposing lead off instead? Lee, Ramirez and Dome aren't going to budge from their spot in the lineup. No way Lou uses Soto or DeRosa as a leadoff hitter. So you're really talking about using Theriot, Johnson or Pie as the leadoff hitter. Theriot had a lower OBP than Soriano did last season; Pie isn't exactly an on-base machine either. And Johnson, at BEST, is a league average OBP sort of hitter. Over the course of a full season, we're not talking about such a huge difference.

 

Obviously, it's not optimal to have Soriano hitting leadoff for a variety of reasons. But it's probably not in the top five of things that could be changed to improve this team.

Exactly. 99% of the people here would probably prefer if Soriano didn't lead off. The rub is that the realisitc alternatives are worse. If Soriano isn't leading off, then who is? Colin's right, it's likely to be either Theriot, Johnson, or Pie. Moving Soriano down to replace him with a vastly inferior hitter isn't improving the team. Soriano is one of the more productive hitters on the team. If the back of the order continues to get on base, he'll have his opportunities. Batting him in the leadoff slot really isn't worth getting your panties in a bunch over.

 

His name is Kosuke Fukudome, and he's in his first season with the Cubs. He plays LF and he's third in the MLB in OBP. He can also steal a base. He is from Japan.

And he won't get a single at bat in the leadoff spot the entire season.

[BigbadB]

His name is Kosuke Fukudome, and he's in his first season with the Cubs. He plays LF and he's third in the MLB in OBP. He can also steal a base. He is from Japan.

 

If he was in LF today, all I can say is he could pass for DeRosa's twin.

[Chocolate Milk]

Regulus did say that he should be batting 5-7 in the lineup, which is absurd.

 

I also don't really mind him leading off.

 

Its absurd? Isn't the best statistical lineup in baseball that which puts your OBPs in descending order? Isn't Soriano's OBP lower than Lee, Fuku, and Ramirez at least? I believe Theriot, Fontenot, and Soto have higher OBPs right now, as well.

 

How about this: Why does Aramis bat fourth? Is it because he's a "RBI-guy" that hits for power and doesn't do much running? Sounds feasible so far.

 

So how much running should the hamstring of Soriano be put through? Didn't he just tweak it on a hop? Why not just have him hit taters with people on base, or is that absurd?

 

I think its far more absurd to have him batting first, right behind the pitcher, when his power dictates that hitting safely can advance runners to home more often than other players with lower SLG%, while at the same time putting good OBP guys ahead of him to make this "runners on base" a reality.

 

Maybe I'm not headed to the asylum, after all.

 

You are way way too concerned with lineup construction.

 

[...]but it appears that bunching better players together and sorting by descending OBP yields the best results for run scoring with similar lineups. However, the differences between those lineups and the traditional lineup structure are minimal.

 

Considering there is almost no chance the lineup will ever be constructed by highest OBP to lowest OBP, I wouldn't get too worked up. Of all the realistic options for leadoff, I think Soriano is one of the better choices.

[BigbadB]

Soriano was on pace to score 115 runs last year, playing a good portion of the season with a bad wheel.

 

Jose Reyes (speedy, decent OBP, lead off hitter) scored 119.

Grady Sizemore scored 118.

Curtis Granderson scored 122 runs.

Brian Roberts scored 103 runs last year.

 

 

All of these guys had healthy wheels last year and didn't miss any significant time. Soriano scores just as much as most other lead off hitters.

 

It does not hurt the Cubs offense to have Soriano lead off.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Soriano has 2 options:

 

1) Do what hes suposed to and help make The Cubs THE dominant force in the NL

 

2) Collect pay checks and get bood mercilessly

[Chocolate Milk]

Soriano has 2 options:

 

1) Do what hes suposed to and help make The Cubs THE dominant force in the NL

 

2) Collect pay checks and get bood mercilessly

 

Does he get paychecks with option #1? This is important.

[CubColtPacer]

Regulus did say that he should be batting 5-7 in the lineup, which is absurd.

 

I also don't really mind him leading off.

 

Its absurd? Isn't the best statistical lineup in baseball that which puts your OBPs in descending order?

 

Not necessarily. There are several lineup construction analysts who say that decreasing by OPS is actually slightly better than decreasing OBP. Of course, similar OPS's would have you go by OBP first. For example, Fukduome would be a better option at the top than Soriano, but Soriano is definitely a better option at the top than Johnson/Theriot/Fontenot/Pie or even DeRosa. The extra plate appearances for one of your best hitters is that important.

 

Then from ideal you have to factor in player reactions as well. Lee and Ramirez are comfortable at 3 and 4 and those placements are close to ideal, so there is little to gain by moving them. Soriano and Fukudome should be the other 2 top hitters because they are better bets to be very productive then the other hitters in the lineup. Because of Soriano's desire to hit leadoff, it makes more sense to bat Soriano 1st/Fukudome 2nd then the other way around.

[frostwyrm]

Where are you getting that from? I'm just saying limiting his at bats is stupid.

 

When you bat a guy leadoff, you are making sure they get the most PAs of anyone.

Not if they miss a month. To make sure he'd get the most at bats of anyone on the team at this point you'd have to bench Lee for an equivalent amount of time. ;)

 

Or just get rid of Lee. It's my firm belief that Soriano will be Lee's replacement at 1B. It's just a question of when. I actually like the idea of trading Lee if he has a huge year. His trade value would be high enough to get a real nice corner OF to replace Soriano, and putting Sori at 1B would keep him healthy, I hope.

[Illini Iceman]

Where are you getting that from? I'm just saying limiting his at bats is stupid.

 

When you bat a guy leadoff, you are making sure they get the most PAs of anyone.

Not if they miss a month. To make sure he'd get the most at bats of anyone on the team at this point you'd have to bench Lee for an equivalent amount of time. ;)

 

Or just get rid of Lee. It's my firm belief that Soriano will be Lee's replacement at 1B. It's just a question of when. I actually like the idea of trading Lee if he has a huge year. His trade value would be high enough to get a real nice corner OF to replace Soriano, and putting Sori at 1B would keep him healthy, I hope.

 

For example? That is a lot of production to make up for taking Lee out of the lineup.

[frostwyrm]

Where are you getting that from? I'm just saying limiting his at bats is stupid.

 

When you bat a guy leadoff, you are making sure they get the most PAs of anyone.

Not if they miss a month. To make sure he'd get the most at bats of anyone on the team at this point you'd have to bench Lee for an equivalent amount of time. ;)

 

Or just get rid of Lee. It's my firm belief that Soriano will be Lee's replacement at 1B. It's just a question of when. I actually like the idea of trading Lee if he has a huge year. His trade value would be high enough to get a real nice corner OF to replace Soriano, and putting Sori at 1B would keep him healthy, I hope.

 

For example? That is a lot of production to make up for taking Lee out of the lineup.

 

There are other people here who know a lot more about the trade market than I do. I don't know if we can find a single OF of equal value to Lee but I'm sure we could get a nice package of several players.

[WilcoFan]

And Johnson, at BEST, is a league average OBP sort of hitter. Over the course of a full season, we're not talking about such a huge difference.

 

Actually, Johnson, at his best (2006 in 134 games) had an OBP of .390. If that's a "league average OBP sort of hitter," can we have a lineup full of league average sort of hitters?

[Colin Wyers]

And Johnson, at BEST, is a league average OBP sort of hitter. Over the course of a full season, we're not talking about such a huge difference.

 

Actually, Johnson, at his best (2006 in 134 games) had an OBP of .390. If that's a "league average OBP sort of hitter," can we have a lineup full of league average sort of hitters?

 

Do you think that he's going to repeat his 2006 performance? Because I don't think it's especially likely. Ignore 2007 and you've still got to regress to the mean and apply an aging curve; ignoring 2007 is ignoring valuable information to add to our forecast. And so while his .390 OBP for the Jays two years ago was nice, I don't know that it qualifies as the best case scenario for Johnson this season.

 

I can't use Excel at work, sadly, but if I'm remembering correctly, Johnson's composite forecast for this season wasn't especially spectacular, with an OBP around .325 or so.

[WilcoFan]

And Johnson, at BEST, is a league average OBP sort of hitter. Over the course of a full season, we're not talking about such a huge difference.

 

Actually, Johnson, at his best (2006 in 134 games) had an OBP of .390. If that's a "league average OBP sort of hitter," can we have a lineup full of league average sort of hitters?

 

Do you think that he's going to repeat his 2006 performance? Because I don't think it's especially likely. Ignore 2007 and you've still got to regress to the mean and apply an aging curve; ignoring 2007 is ignoring valuable information to add to our forecast. And so while his .390 OBP for the Jays two years ago was nice, I don't know that it qualifies as the best case scenario for Johnson this season.

 

I can't use Excel at work, sadly, but if I'm remembering correctly, Johnson's composite forecast for this season wasn't especially spectacular, with an OBP around .325 or so.

 

I have no idea whether or not he's going to repeat his performance, seeing as how he was injured most of last year with a herniated disc that required surgery. 2007 should not be ignored, but it also needs to carry a caveat. Given that he had one year of .390 OBP, got injured, then posted a year of .305 OBP, and considering his performance thus far this year, I would not be surprised to see him end the season closer to the .390 than the .305.

[CoolHandLuke]

And Johnson, at BEST, is a league average OBP sort of hitter. Over the course of a full season, we're not talking about such a huge difference.

 

Actually, Johnson, at his best (2006 in 134 games) had an OBP of .390. If that's a "league average OBP sort of hitter," can we have a lineup full of league average sort of hitters?

 

Do you think that he's going to repeat his 2006 performance? Because I don't think it's especially likely. Ignore 2007 and you've still got to regress to the mean and apply an aging curve; ignoring 2007 is ignoring valuable information to add to our forecast. And so while his .390 OBP for the Jays two years ago was nice, I don't know that it qualifies as the best case scenario for Johnson this season.

 

I can't use Excel at work, sadly, but if I'm remembering correctly, Johnson's composite forecast for this season wasn't especially spectacular, with an OBP around .325 or so.

 

I have no idea whether or not he's going to repeat his performance, seeing as how he was injured most of last year with a herniated disc that required surgery. 2007 should not be ignored, but it also needs to carry a caveat. Given that he had one year of .390 OBP, got injured, then posted a year of .305 OBP, and considering his performance thus far this year, I would not be surprised to see him end the season closer to the .390 than the .305.

 

What about the two years previous when his OBP was .320 and .332 respectively, do they count?

[CoolHandLuke]

I think the only super realistic scenario in which Johnson puts up an OBP close to .390 or better is if he ends up being used in a fairly strict platoon in which he faces lefties for a solid majority of his at-bats.

[sneakypower]

Where are you getting that from? I'm just saying limiting his at bats is stupid.

 

When you bat a guy leadoff, you are making sure they get the most PAs of anyone.

Not if they miss a month. To make sure he'd get the most at bats of anyone on the team at this point you'd have to bench Lee for an equivalent amount of time. ;)

 

Or just get rid of Lee. It's my firm belief that Soriano will be Lee's replacement at 1B. It's just a question of when. I actually like the idea of trading Lee if he has a huge year. His trade value would be high enough to get a real nice corner OF to replace Soriano, and putting Sori at 1B would keep him healthy, I hope.

no

trade

clause

[XZero771679666304]

And he won't get a single at bat in the leadoff spot the entire season.

 

I wouldn't be so sure. If Soto starts tearing it up for a prolonged stretch, perhaps Lou will come to view him as adequate protection for Ramirez, which is why Kosuke is there. Lou has come out and said he'd like Fukudome up in the lineup, but he needed him to protect Aramis.

 

It seems to me that if other protection presents itself, things could change.

[Amazing_Grace]

The right thing to do would be to bat Fukudome leadoff. His numbers with high OBP, lots of doubles, good speed, suggest he'd be an ideal leadoff man. This is an absolute no-brainer in my book. Aramis is not the kind of free swinging slugger that needs someone good behind him. Soriano is that kind of hitter. I think the best lineup we could put out there would be

 

Fukudome

Soriano

Lee

Ramirez

DeRosa

Soto

Theriot/Johnson

Theriot/Cedeno/Pie

P