Catching all the breaks

[snoodmonger]

Well when one thinks of lucky, usually the Cubs are the first thing that pops in the head. Also Vice Versa.

 

This made me laugh.

[ELCABALLO45]

Once again, Brewers fans are chiming in about how the Cubs are "catching all the breaks", a familiar refrain from 2007.

 

Their main beef seems to be the Cubs schedule. This would be legit if not for the fact that theirs has been nearly as easy. They point at the Pirates (never mind that if not for the Cubs the Bucs would have a winning record). But the Crew have gotten the Giants (BAD) for a series, and the Reds (just as bad as the Pirates so far) six times. And while STL is doing well, they are far from a powerhouse. They got the Mets, we got the Mets (and while we missed Santana, we got Maine, and Figueroa who was pitching very well), the difference being that we blew them out both wins. We got Philly, who is pretty clearly a stronger team than any of the other teams the Brewers have played, and on the road.

 

Or maybe it's that the Cubs have been playing at home a lot, except that the Cubs don't lean on their home field like a crutch as the Brewers do (44 wins at home in 2007, 41 on the road compared to 51 wins at home for the Brewers and 32 on the road).

 

Or maybe it's those other breaks, like 2 of our best 3 (Lilly, Hill) starting pitchers sucking badly for most of the month, or 2 of our best relievers (Howry, Wuertz) stinking and causing our BP to be short, or Soriano getting hurt (and sucking), Ramirez getting off to a slow start and things not going according to plan with Pie.

 

Say that the Cubs have been hot offensively and should cool off, but don't come with that whiny "catching all the breaks" garbage. The Cubs sure didn't catch any last year, and relatively speaking, they're not catching many this year.

 

Okay well, I will explain myself.

 

First off you can't say "Well the Pirates are good if we didnt beat them 6 times". And then turn around and say "They got to play the Cardinals".

 

No the Reds are not just as bad as the Pirates, don't be that stupid.

 

Your right we both played the Mets, And you did miss Santana, And you faced Figueroa, well so did we. (He locked us up). And your right you did get Philly. And whoever said you have to go to New York for 4 games, well we have to go to Philly for 4 games, so that even's out.

 

I know the schedule will even out over the year. Im not that dumb. But so far we have played @ Chicago, @ New York, @ Cincy and @ St. Louis.

 

Also

 

1. I said you guys are hot right now. Can't deny that.

 

I think when I say that I meant to say "WE" as in the Brewers are not catching any breaks right now.

 

Look who we have had pitching against us this year.

 

1. Zambrano

2. Lilly

3. Harang

4. Cueto

5. Santana

6. Wainwright

7. Cueto

8. Harang

9. Wainright

10. Hamels

 

That is a pretty rough stretch.

 

I didn't mean to cause such a riot by saying "catching every break" its just, Having Ned Yost as your manager really frustrates you. So thats my bad. Hopefully I didn't overdue my welcome here

[Bote McBoteface]

its just, Having Ned Yost as your manager really frustrates you. So thats my bad.

 

Ah, that explains everything.

[XZero771679666304]

 

No the Reds are not just as bad as the Pirates, don't be that stupid.

 

 

Yeah, they really are at this point. They may not be by the end, but the Reds have been straight up awful so far. They're losing to everyone, and they're losing big. in their last 11, they are 3-8 (including a sweep at the hands of the Pirates), having been outscored by 25 runs over that span (including wins). They were outscored 63-22 in the 8 losses. That's half the season so far.

 

They are now last in the division.

 

And I didn't mean to single you out (and I am not directing the following at you). It's just that there was so much of that "Cubs catch all the breaks" from Crew fans down the stretch last year, and it is such sour grapes BS (like acting shocked when the Cubs started pounding the ball late in the season, even though the team was loaded with perennial sluggers who had underachieved all season to that point) that it sets me off. And after the Cubs won the division, I heard a lot of "I hope they/you enjoy it, they won't get close again anytime soon" from Crew fans.

 

The problem is that many Crew fans seem desperately attached to the notion that the Brewers are so much more talented than the Cubs (and everyone else) that if all things are equal, they should win fairly easily. Where this theory runs into trouble is that it isn't true.

 

Now before any Milwaukee fans have a conniption fit, I will concede that the Crew is very talented, probably more talented than the Cubs. But not by that much. I just think all the hype about the young talent has gone to Brewers fan's heads a bit, to the point that when they aren't in first place, it must be due to some sort of poor luck for the crew, or horseshoes up the butts of the opposition. Much of that is due to the 24-10 start last year in which, let's be honest, the Crew was probably playing over their heads a bit.

 

There are no guarantees that Fielder will hit 50 homers, or that Braun will OPS 1.000 or Hart will produce like last year. Hardy is almost certainly more of the 10-15 homer guy he has been than the 25+ guy of 2007. Gagne is no Cordero. Yost is still Yost.

 

On our side, Lee and Ramirez are both top 5 at their positions in MLB. Soriano is an All-Star. Fukudome is a Japanese MVP. Soto is a favorite for ROY. Zambrano is a Cy Young candidate (one that doesn't get injured regularly, mind you). There are 3 guys in our pen (despite a couple slow starts this year) that could be #1 set-up men for many teams, including yours. Plus the Cubs are big spenders. They may not be as loaded with young talent, but for this year and the next at least, the Cubs aren't going anywhere, and it isn't because they catch breaks.

 

And by that time, you'll have the Reds (provided Dusty hasn't messed them up too badly) to deal with. There is a legitimate chance (though I doubt it, it may well happen this year) that Prince, Braun and Co. won't experience playoff baseball as Milwaukee Brewers at all.

 

Maybe some of the more loudmouthed among the crew fanbase should temper some of that "we're so talented" sense of entitlement with the reality that they won't be running away with anything.

[ELCABALLO45]

 

No the Reds are not just as bad as the Pirates, don't be that stupid.

 

 

Yeah, they really are at this point. They may not be by the end, but the Reds have been straight up awful so far. They're losing to everyone, and they're losing big. in their last 11, they are 3-8 (including a sweep at the hands of the Pirates), having been outscored by 25 runs over that span (including wins). They were outscored 63-22 in the 8 losses. That's half the season so far.

 

They are now last in the division.

 

And I didn't mean to single you out (and I am not directing the following at you). It's just that there was so much of that "Cubs catch all the breaks" from Crew fans down the stretch last year, and it is such sour grapes BS (like acting shocked when the Cubs started pounding the ball late in the season, even though the team was loaded with perennial sluggers who had underachieved all season to that point) that it sets me off. And after the Cubs won the division, I heard a lot of "I hope they/you enjoy it, they won't get close again anytime soon" from Crew fans.

 

The problem is that many Crew fans seem desperately attached to the notion that the Brewers are so much more talented than the Cubs (and everyone else) that if all things are equal, they should win fairly easily. Where this theory runs into trouble is that it isn't true.

 

Now before any Milwaukee fans have a conniption fit, I will concede that the Crew is very talented, probably more talented than the Cubs. But not by that much. I just think all the hype about the young talent has gone to Brewers fan's heads a bit, to the point that when they aren't in first place, it must be due to some sort of poor luck for the crew, or horseshoes up the butts of the opposition. Much of that is due to the 24-10 start last year in which, let's be honest, the Crew was probably playing over their heads a bit.

 

There are no guarantees that Fielder will hit 50 homers, or that Braun will OPS 1.000 or Hart will produce like last year. Hardy is almost certainly more of the 10-15 homer guy he has been than the 25+ guy of 2007. Gagne is no Cordero. Yost is still Yost.

 

On our side, Lee and Ramirez are both top 5 at their positions in MLB. Soriano is an All-Star. Fukudome is a Japanese MVP. Soto is a favorite for ROY. Zambrano is a Cy Young candidate (one that doesn't get injured regularly, mind you). There are 3 guys in our pen (despite a couple slow starts this year) that could be #1 set-up men for many teams, including yours. Plus the Cubs are big spenders. They may not be as loaded with young talent, but for this year and the next at least, the Cubs aren't going anywhere, and it isn't because they catch breaks.

 

And by that time, you'll have the Reds (provided Dusty hasn't messed them up too badly) to deal with. There is a legitimate chance (though I doubt it, it may well happen this year) that Prince, Braun and Co. won't experience playoff baseball as Milwaukee Brewers at all.

 

Maybe some of the more loudmouthed among the crew fanbase should temper some of that "we're so talented" sense of entitlement with the reality that they won't be running away with anything.

 

Ok, Well I just want to say I never said once said "The Brewers have so much more talent" or "We are going to run away with the divison". I don't agree with some of your posts but Im not here to start a fight or anything. This is a Cub board and I will respect that.

[XZero771679666304]

 

No the Reds are not just as bad as the Pirates, don't be that stupid.

 

 

Yeah, they really are at this point. They may not be by the end, but the Reds have been straight up awful so far. They're losing to everyone, and they're losing big. in their last 11, they are 3-8 (including a sweep at the hands of the Pirates), having been outscored by 25 runs over that span (including wins). They were outscored 63-22 in the 8 losses. That's half the season so far.

 

They are now last in the division.

 

And I didn't mean to single you out (and I am not directing the following at you). It's just that there was so much of that "Cubs catch all the breaks" from Crew fans down the stretch last year, and it is such sour grapes BS (like acting shocked when the Cubs started pounding the ball late in the season, even though the team was loaded with perennial sluggers who had underachieved all season to that point) that it sets me off. And after the Cubs won the division, I heard a lot of "I hope they/you enjoy it, they won't get close again anytime soon" from Crew fans.

 

The problem is that many Crew fans seem desperately attached to the notion that the Brewers are so much more talented than the Cubs (and everyone else) that if all things are equal, they should win fairly easily. Where this theory runs into trouble is that it isn't true.

 

Now before any Milwaukee fans have a conniption fit, I will concede that the Crew is very talented, probably more talented than the Cubs. But not by that much. I just think all the hype about the young talent has gone to Brewers fan's heads a bit, to the point that when they aren't in first place, it must be due to some sort of poor luck for the crew, or horseshoes up the butts of the opposition. Much of that is due to the 24-10 start last year in which, let's be honest, the Crew was probably playing over their heads a bit.

 

There are no guarantees that Fielder will hit 50 homers, or that Braun will OPS 1.000 or Hart will produce like last year. Hardy is almost certainly more of the 10-15 homer guy he has been than the 25+ guy of 2007. Gagne is no Cordero. Yost is still Yost.

 

On our side, Lee and Ramirez are both top 5 at their positions in MLB. Soriano is an All-Star. Fukudome is a Japanese MVP. Soto is a favorite for ROY. Zambrano is a Cy Young candidate (one that doesn't get injured regularly, mind you). There are 3 guys in our pen (despite a couple slow starts this year) that could be #1 set-up men for many teams, including yours. Plus the Cubs are big spenders. They may not be as loaded with young talent, but for this year and the next at least, the Cubs aren't going anywhere, and it isn't because they catch breaks.

 

And by that time, you'll have the Reds (provided Dusty hasn't messed them up too badly) to deal with. There is a legitimate chance (though I doubt it, it may well happen this year) that Prince, Braun and Co. won't experience playoff baseball as Milwaukee Brewers at all.

 

Maybe some of the more loudmouthed among the crew fanbase should temper some of that "we're so talented" sense of entitlement with the reality that they won't be running away with anything.

 

Ok, Well I just want to say I never said once said "The Brewers have so much more talent" or "We are going to run away with the divison". I don't agree with some of your posts but Im not here to start a fight or anything. This is a Cub board and I will respect that.

 

See the part where I said I wasn't singling you out or directing what was to follow at you. It's near the beginning of my post.

 

I never said that you said those things. It's just that you making that comment about breaks gave me a bit of that "here we go again" feeling. Aside from one other thread, I have found you to be pretty reasonable. I am pretty sure you know the ones at Brewerfan.net who I am mainly referring to.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

And just to reiterate an earlier point, the Reds are just as bad as the Pirates. The Reds may have more potential and young talent, but right now those teams are fairly equal when it comes to being bad.

[inari]

I'm still willing to bet substantial dough that the Reds finish in third. They may be cold, but they're really truly not as bad as the Pirates.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I'm still willing to bet substantial dough that the Reds finish in third. They may be cold, but they're really truly not as bad as the Pirates.

 

with Dusty at the helm, they may take underachievement to epic levels.

[bukie]

I'm still willing to bet substantial dough that the Reds finish in third. They may be cold, but they're really truly not as bad as the Pirates.

 

with Dusty at the helm, they may take underachievement to epic levels.

 

Yeah, I could definitely see any of the Cards, Astros and Pirates finishing ahead of the Reds, even though the Reds are likely the 3rd most talented team in the division.

[illiniguy]

The biggest difference from last year to this year is we aren't trotting crap like Jones and Kendall out there everyday. Instead we replaced them with two very good hitters. Although Milwaukee might not agree with that since they probably think Kendall will sustain the insane start he has going.

[ELCABALLO45]

And just to reiterate an earlier point, the Reds are just as bad as the Pirates. The Reds may have more potential and young talent, but right now those teams are fairly equal when it comes to being bad.

 

All I mean by that is, Who would you rather play? The Pirates or the Reds? I would rather play the Pirates every day of the week, and twice on sunday. I don't care what the records say. But yeah right now they are both pretty bad.

 

The biggest difference from last year to this year is we aren't trotting crap like Jones and Kendall out there everyday. Instead we replaced them with two very good hitters. Although Milwaukee might not agree with that since they probably think Kendall will sustain the insane start he has going.

 

Haha, No I don't think he will hit .350 all year. But I take Jason Kendall over Estrada, Estrada makes Kendall look like Ricky Henderson.

[XZero771679666304]

The biggest difference from last year to this year is we aren't trotting crap like Jones and Kendall out there everyday. Instead we replaced them with two very good hitters. Although Milwaukee might not agree with that since they probably think Kendall will sustain the insane start he has going.

 

My favorite part is listening to the announcers rave about how good Kendall is behind the plate, when he hasn't even been league average for a few years now. He was great with the Pirates, but those days are long past.

[CubinNY]

:cry:

I've got some slightly used tissues for you.

[TruffleShuffle]

The biggest difference from last year to this year is we aren't trotting crap like Jones and Kendall out there everyday. Instead we replaced them with two very good hitters. Although Milwaukee might not agree with that since they probably think Kendall will sustain the insane start he has going.

 

Haha, No I don't think he will hit .350 all year. But I take Jason Kendall over Estrada, Estrada makes Kendall look like Ricky Henderson.

 

estrada had a 7.7 VORP last year, kendall had a -9.8. they're both bad defensively. estrada is still the better player - unless kendall is able to sustain the .344 BABIP with a 16% line drive rate, and good luck with that.

[UMFan83]

1. Sheets

2. Oswalt

3. Meyers

4. Hamels

5. Harang

6. Volquez

7. Maine

8. Cook

9. Snell

[illiniguy]

1. Sheets

2. Oswalt

3. Meyers

4. Hamels

5. Harang

6. Volquez

7. Maine

8. Cook

9. Snell

Yeah every team has to play against good pitchers. WTF do they think they will have to face if they make the playoffs?

[Schwarber Fan]

How about that last series of the year @ Milwaukee? Big break for the Cubs :roll:

[illiniguy]

I felt especially lucky tonight when a guy who can't hit his weight, hits his first(probably last) homer as a walk off to beat us.

[ELCABALLO45]

The biggest difference from last year to this year is we aren't trotting crap like Jones and Kendall out there everyday. Instead we replaced them with two very good hitters. Although Milwaukee might not agree with that since they probably think Kendall will sustain the insane start he has going.

 

Haha, No I don't think he will hit .350 all year. But I take Jason Kendall over Estrada, Estrada makes Kendall look like Ricky Henderson.

 

estrada had a 7.7 VORP last year, kendall had a -9.8. they're both bad defensively. estrada is still the better player - unless kendall is able to sustain the .344 BABIP with a 16% line drive rate, and good luck with that.

 

Jason Kendall threw out his 7th base runner today. He has improved alot from last year. Kendall > Estrada

[17 Seconds]

Small sample size, guy.

[illiniguy]

The biggest difference from last year to this year is we aren't trotting crap like Jones and Kendall out there everyday. Instead we replaced them with two very good hitters. Although Milwaukee might not agree with that since they probably think Kendall will sustain the insane start he has going.

 

Haha, No I don't think he will hit .350 all year. But I take Jason Kendall over Estrada, Estrada makes Kendall look like Ricky Henderson.

 

estrada had a 7.7 VORP last year, kendall had a -9.8. they're both bad defensively. estrada is still the better player - unless kendall is able to sustain the .344 BABIP with a 16% line drive rate, and good luck with that.

 

Jason Kendall threw out his 7th base runner today. He has improved alot from last year. Kendall > Estrada

Estrada threw out two cubs yesterday. Also even though it is still a very small sample size, what would make you think a guy would get heads and shoulders better after they turned 36? I can think of only one way for that to happen. Jason didn't work out with Mike Cameron this offseason did he?

[XZero771679666304]

The biggest difference from last year to this year is we aren't trotting crap like Jones and Kendall out there everyday. Instead we replaced them with two very good hitters. Although Milwaukee might not agree with that since they probably think Kendall will sustain the insane start he has going.

 

Haha, No I don't think he will hit .350 all year. But I take Jason Kendall over Estrada, Estrada makes Kendall look like Ricky Henderson.

 

estrada had a 7.7 VORP last year, kendall had a -9.8. they're both bad defensively. estrada is still the better player - unless kendall is able to sustain the .344 BABIP with a 16% line drive rate, and good luck with that.

 

Jason Kendall threw out his 7th base runner today. He has improved alot from last year. Kendall > Estrada

Estrada threw out two cubs yesterday. Also even though it is still a very small sample size, what would make you think a guy would get heads and shoulders better after they turned 36? I can think of only one way for that to happen. Jason didn't work out with Mike Cameron this offseason did he?

 

Estrada threw out Theriot, and Kendall threw out Luis Gonzalez, who isn't exactly Vince Coleman out there. Then Kendall made a "great" play on a bunt, cutting down the runner at third, and the Brewers' announcers were gushing. The problem was that Kendall had to go to third because he took a bad angle to the ball, and was fortunate that the runner going to third was the Marlins catcher.

 

The details (and more importantly, sample size) do matter. Good, fast baserunners can run on Jason at will, and all day. Eye surgery doesn't correct noodle arm. Brewer fans will realize this all too well by season's end.