Is it time to make Cedeno a starter?

[TruffleShuffle]

you're looking too closely at the numbers in this case. his swing and approach is enormously different than it was in 06 and the start of 07. he's not lunging after every pitch indiscriminately. but if you were to look at the numbers, his BB:K in AAA last year, the AFL and the majors thus far this season have all been a dramatic improvement (70:99 combined) from his 06 atrocities.

 

this is a much better argument than pretty much anything else in this thread. kudos. there's actually another angle, but i don't have time to get into that right now.

[Rob]

Cedeno's P/PA

 

2005 - 3.48

2006 - 3.49

2007 - 3.68

2008 - 4.05

[CubbieBum]

Right now the Theriot 3/4's Cedeno 1/4 with pinch hit and sub in strategy is working until one gets cold I wouldn't change a thing.

[Colin Wyers]

As much as I hate to say this, there's as much chance that Ryan has figured it out as Ronny. Hard to say just yet since the sample's pretty small. Let's play them both and see how they do.

 

It is not, in fact, just as likely for a 28-year-old player to have a breakout season as it is for a 25-year-old. Now you're absolutely right about the sample sizes involved here being pretty meaningless, but the fact of the matter is that Cedeno has a higher ceiling; it's simply not a NEW fact.

 

First of all, welcome to the Board.

 

Now that you're here, you not be aware of this, but I've been a long time supporter of Cedeno. I wanted him to start over Theriot all offseason. However, with Soriano out, why is it verboten to play both Cedeno and Theriot? It's not. In fact, it's almost certainly the best move for the team given Murton's struggles. I just don't think there's any reason to pitch a fit until that decision is forced on us.

 

Age 28 seasons are typically among the peak years for a player -- Theriot could certainly be having a break-out season. I'd suggest that a 28 year old having a great season after a sub-par Age 27 season isn't unheard of. Given that 25 is pre-peak and 28 is among the peak years, I believe it is more likely for a 28 year-old than a 25 year-old to have a break-out season. I could be wrong, of course, but that's my recollection.

 

I absolutely agree that Cedeno has higher ceiling. No question about it (in my mind). And, actually, it is Ronny's ceiling and his likely progression as a player making him more important, long-term, to the Cubs than Theriot. Even though Ryan and Ronny are providing roughly similar production, Cedeno is likely to improve and become a better player while Theriot is arguably at his peak.

 

All that said, the sample sizes are still too small to draw any meaningful conclusions.

 

28 is part of a player's peak years, which are somewhere around 26-28 or 27-29, depending on who you ask. But the age progression isn't equal. Take a look at this graph:

 

http://i164.photobucket.com/albums/u30/cwyers/aging_curve.png

 

That's the average aging curve of a major league player, expressed in wOBA. (wOBA is a rate version of linear weights on the same scale as OBP.)

 

Take a look at the curve during the peak years - it tends to flatten out. As a population, major league players tend to be far more consistant during their peak years than at any other time. Thus, on average we can expect to see more year-to-year improvement from a pre-peak player than we can from a player in their peak.

 

This is not an iron law, of course - if nothing else sampling issues prevent us from getting a complete measure of a player's true talent level in a single season. But that's our median expectation based upon what we know about player ages.

 

We also have this additional bit of information: Ronny Cedeno's hitting at AAA last season, where he put up a translated .307/.359/.456 batting line. (The translation is based upon the average difference in performance of players who were both in the majors and the minors; his raw numbers were .359/.422/.537).

 

In mid-to-late April, I tend to think that past performance is a better indicator of future success than year-to-date numbers; we know that Matt Murton is a better hitter than his numbers so far indicate, and so there's no real reason to try to assign some sort of a reason to his struggles unless we have scouting or medical data to indicate otherwise. So in spite of how he's played so far, I still think Murton in left and DeRosa at second is the best use of current resources. (That assumes a strict platoon in center field; adding Johnson vs. Pie to a Theriot vs. Cedeno arguement is a bridge too far for me right now).

 

The question then becomes, who plays shortstop? Based upon what we knew going into the season, Cedeno had more talent and is more likely to give the Cubs decent production from the position. Nothing that's happened so far has really given us reason to think otherwise.

[Tracer Bullet]

So the 300 AB difference, at least to you, is significant enough to justify saying Cedeno is a bust and Pie should be given the full time starting gig?

 

reading comprehension is really suffering in this country. first of all, i didn't say that i am convinced that cedeno is a bust, i just don't think he will be a good player. second, there is a difference of about 450 PAs between pie and cedeno, not 300.

 

That's pretty funny. I'm not sure if the reading comprehension comment was meant to be self-inflicting, but is there a meaningful difference between saying a good prospect is a "bust" and a good prospect will not be a good player?

 

The 300 ABs focuses on the #s from Cedeno's 23-year-old season, which you have harped on seemingly forever as the clear indicator that he's a bust. I'm not going to dig up all the quotes, as I'm sure everyone remembers the arguments (you floated out about 4-5 studs, like David Wright, who were monsters in the majors before age 23 in support of your argument). So, given that this season of roughly 500 ABs of sucktitute came when Ronny was 23 and now over 2 partial seasons, Pie has 200 ABs of almost exactly equal sucktitude, I'm concluding that the difference between your raging support of Pie and your decision that Cedeno is a bust...I mean...will not be a good player, is the fact that Ronny's suck was over 300 more ABs. I've ignored the other ABs of Ronny's b/c we both have during this long multi-thread argument we've had. Since you've always pointed to that one season of Ronny's as proof that he won't be good, without reference to anything else he's done (minors or majors), I've ignored the other stuff too, for this purpose.

 

I'm really just trying to figure out what it is that makes you want to give Pie the starting job when he's been terrible and looked terrible (until a few games ago) but want Theriot to start over Ronny still, despite all the evidence that Ronny's got the much higher ceiling (than Theriot) and his plate approach has changed for the better.

[Tracer Bullet]

As much as I hate to say this, there's as much chance that Ryan has figured it out as Ronny. Hard to say just yet since the sample's pretty small. Let's play them both and see how they do.

 

It is not, in fact, just as likely for a 28-year-old player to have a breakout season as it is for a 25-year-old. Now you're absolutely right about the sample sizes involved here being pretty meaningless, but the fact of the matter is that Cedeno has a higher ceiling; it's simply not a NEW fact.

 

First of all, welcome to the Board.

 

Now that you're here, you not be aware of this, but I've been a long time supporter of Cedeno. I wanted him to start over Theriot all offseason. However, with Soriano out, why is it verboten to play both Cedeno and Theriot? It's not. In fact, it's almost certainly the best move for the team given Murton's struggles. I just don't think there's any reason to pitch a fit until that decision is forced on us.

 

Age 28 seasons are typically among the peak years for a player -- Theriot could certainly be having a break-out season. I'd suggest that a 28 year old having a great season after a sub-par Age 27 season isn't unheard of. Given that 25 is pre-peak and 28 is among the peak years, I believe it is more likely for a 28 year-old than a 25 year-old to have a break-out season. I could be wrong, of course, but that's my recollection.

 

I absolutely agree that Cedeno has higher ceiling. No question about it (in my mind). And, actually, it is Ronny's ceiling and his likely progression as a player making him more important, long-term, to the Cubs than Theriot. Even though Ryan and Ronny are providing roughly similar production, Cedeno is likely to improve and become a better player while Theriot is arguably at his peak.

 

All that said, the sample sizes are still too small to draw any meaningful conclusions.

 

Seems highly unlikely that a player with Theriot's background in the minors and majors would ever have a breakout season, let alone at age 28. Seems much more likely that a guy that sucked in the majors at age 23, but was great in AAA at ages 22 and 24 would breakout at age 25. Also seems like Cedeno's "breakout" (or peak) would be something like an .800-.850 OPS, whereas Theriot's would be about 100 OPS points lower.

[haubrich91]

Yeah, he deserves a shot.

[TruffleShuffle]

I'm really just trying to figure out what it is that makes you want to give Pie the starting job when he's been terrible and looked terrible (until a few games ago) but want Theriot to start over Ronny still, despite all the evidence that Ronny's got the much higher ceiling (than Theriot) and his plate approach has changed for the better.

 

do i need to make the same post over and over? cedeno was the starting shortstop for an entire season; pie has been the starting center fielder for a maximum of three weeks. he hasn't had the extended chance at playing time that cedeno had in 2006.

[TheDude]

Theriot will eventually play himself out of the starting job and into the first non-power pinch-hitter off the bench because his primary skillset seems to consist of hit-and-run or other energy plays that bring the crowd into the game (as opposed to obviously more valuable, tangible raw production).

 

When Theriot dips, Cedeno will get his shot again, and without the regressed influence of Dusty.

[brinoch]

28 is part of a player's peak years, which are somewhere around 26-28 or 27-29, depending on who you ask. But the age progression isn't equal. Take a look at this graph:

 

http://i164.photobucket.com/albums/u30/cwyers/aging_curve.png

 

That's the average aging curve of a major league player, expressed in wOBA. (wOBA is a rate version of linear weights on the same scale as OBP.)

 

Take a look at the curve during the peak years - it tends to flatten out. As a population, major league players tend to be far more consistant during their peak years than at any other time. Thus, on average we can expect to see more year-to-year improvement from a pre-peak player than we can from a player in their peak.

 

This is not an iron law, of course - if nothing else sampling issues prevent us from getting a complete measure of a player's true talent level in a single season. But that's our median expectation based upon what we know about player ages.

 

We also have this additional bit of information: Ronny Cedeno's hitting at AAA last season, where he put up a translated .307/.359/.456 batting line. (The translation is based upon the average difference in performance of players who were both in the majors and the minors; his raw numbers were .359/.422/.537).

 

In mid-to-late April, I tend to think that past performance is a better indicator of future success than year-to-date numbers; we know that Matt Murton is a better hitter than his numbers so far indicate, and so there's no real reason to try to assign some sort of a reason to his struggles unless we have scouting or medical data to indicate otherwise. So in spite of how he's played so far, I still think Murton in left and DeRosa at second is the best use of current resources. (That assumes a strict platoon in center field; adding Johnson vs. Pie to a Theriot vs. Cedeno arguement is a bridge too far for me right now).

 

The question then becomes, who plays shortstop? Based upon what we knew going into the season, Cedeno had more talent and is more likely to give the Cubs decent production from the position. Nothing that's happened so far has really given us reason to think otherwise.

 

Great stuff. I have some followup that I'll write tonight, hopefully, but I'm swamped at work today.

[javy knows my name]

Is Colin our new Bob's Keeper with a more promising frequency of posts? Please let it be true!

[Guest]

28 is part of a player's peak years, which are somewhere around 26-28 or 27-29, depending on who you ask. But the age progression isn't equal. Take a look at this graph:

 

http://i164.photobucket.com/albums/u30/cwyers/aging_curve.png

 

That's the average aging curve of a major league player, expressed in wOBA. (wOBA is a rate version of linear weights on the same scale as OBP.)

 

Take a look at the curve during the peak years - it tends to flatten out. As a population, major league players tend to be far more consistant during their peak years than at any other time. Thus, on average we can expect to see more year-to-year improvement from a pre-peak player than we can from a player in their peak.

 

This is not an iron law, of course - if nothing else sampling issues prevent us from getting a complete measure of a player's true talent level in a single season. But that's our median expectation based upon what we know about player ages.

 

We also have this additional bit of information: Ronny Cedeno's hitting at AAA last season, where he put up a translated .307/.359/.456 batting line. (The translation is based upon the average difference in performance of players who were both in the majors and the minors; his raw numbers were .359/.422/.537).

 

In mid-to-late April, I tend to think that past performance is a better indicator of future success than year-to-date numbers; we know that Matt Murton is a better hitter than his numbers so far indicate, and so there's no real reason to try to assign some sort of a reason to his struggles unless we have scouting or medical data to indicate otherwise. So in spite of how he's played so far, I still think Murton in left and DeRosa at second is the best use of current resources. (That assumes a strict platoon in center field; adding Johnson vs. Pie to a Theriot vs. Cedeno arguement is a bridge too far for me right now).

 

The question then becomes, who plays shortstop? Based upon what we knew going into the season, Cedeno had more talent and is more likely to give the Cubs decent production from the position. Nothing that's happened so far has really given us reason to think otherwise.

Great post. One thing to keep in mind, though, is that Theriot's age 27 season was his first in the majors. I don't know how much of an adjustment there is, but it would be interesting to look at players that broke into the majors at that age and how they did in season 2, 3, etc.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Is Colin our new Bob's Keeper with a more promising frequency of posts? Please let it be true!

 

He's the guy who was writing at The Other Fifteen.

 

Great stuff Colin, welcome.

[brinoch]

Great post. One thing to keep in mind, though, is that Theriot's age 27 season was his first in the majors. I don't know how much of an adjustment there is, but it would be interesting to look at players that broke into the majors at that age and how they did in season 2, 3, etc.

 

Tim managed to summarize one of my posts from last night into two sentences which are both clearer and more succinct than my rambl-a-thon. :D

[CoolHandLuke]

I like this poster. A lot.

 

 

One thing I'd like to add, even though I'm not sure it means anything. I don't really consider a year in which someone produces more the previous year to be a breakout if it follows the natural growth curve of a players career. To me, a breakout year would be one in which they perform so well that their career curve is altered. Basically a semantic argument based on what a "breakout" is, but I just thought I'd throw that out there.

[David]

I like this poster. A lot.

 

 

One thing I'd like to add, even though I'm not sure it means anything. I don't really consider a year in which someone produces more the previous year to be a breakout if it follows the natural growth curve of a players career. To me, a breakout year would be one in which they perform so well that their career curve is altered. Basically a semantic argument based on what a "breakout" is, but I just thought I'd throw that out there.

 

i.e. a Derrek Lee 2005 (would probably be a much better example if not for the wrist injury)?

[SouthSideRyan]

I could see Theriot peaking later than a normal curve because he wasted time switch-hitting in the minors. But again, his peak, even hitting from one side isn't close to Cedeno's. Theriot might just be a useful piece after all though, which I was starting to doubt.

[Colin Wyers]

Great post. One thing to keep in mind, though, is that Theriot's age 27 season was his first in the majors. I don't know how much of an adjustment there is, but it would be interesting to look at players that broke into the majors at that age and how they did in season 2, 3, etc.

 

I could see Theriot peaking later than a normal curve because he wasted time switch-hitting in the minors. But again, his peak, even hitting from one side isn't close to Cedeno's. Theriot might just be a useful piece after all though, which I was starting to doubt.

 

The aging curve isn't so much a function of experience as it is, well, age; that's why it doesn't just keep going up as a player gets older. Even if there is some merit to the idea that Theriot's development was stunted by this, that or the other, it does not change his physical development.

 

That said, I'll run some numbers on Age 27 debuts if it'll shed some light on the issue.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Let's see, possibly game-losing defensive gaffe and another failure to get a runner in from third with less than two outs.

 

Someone remind me how Theriot always gets the little things right?

[WilcoFan]

Let's see, possibly game-losing defensive gaffe and another failure to get a runner in from third with less than two outs.

 

Someone remind me how Theriot always gets the little things right?

 

 

 

Get the pitchforks out. This year's Jacque Jones just made a mistake. Let the avalanche begin.

[rawaction]

I guess I understand the point in leaving your starters at their starting position as long as they are in the game. Basically, I understand the idea that Theriot, the starting SS, should be at SS when he's in the game because that's the position he is on the team to play. But there also has to be something with getting your best defensive players in the right position late in the game. If you are gonna leave Cedeno in the game because his defense is better than Fontenot's, they why can't you make the defense better all around by putting the best defensive SS on the team at SS and Theriot at 2B, where he's probably pretty even with Derosa/Cedeno and better than Fontenot.

 

Not a huge gripe, but I've always thought if Cedeno and Theriot were in the game together, Cedeno, the better SS of the 2 (range, arm, turning two) should be there with Theriot at 2B. On one hand, it would be like moving Lee to LF so Ward can play 1B. On the other, Derosa is the starting 2B but gets moved all over the place so bench players can be more comfortable.

 

Again, not a huge gripe, because Theriot probably won't screw that play up the next 150 chances he gets.

[TruffleShuffle]

Let's see, possibly game-losing defensive gaffe and another failure to get a runner in from third with less than two outs.

 

Someone remind me how Theriot always gets the little things right?

 

 

 

Get the pitchforks out. This year's Jacque Jones just made a mistake. Let the avalanche begin.

 

didn't see much from the anti-theriot crowd after his game-winning rbi yesterday. plus, isn't it generally a good idea to try to hit the ball hard? that's what he did in the 8th inning; unfortunately it was a line drive right at helton and it was a dp.

Edited April 25, 2008 by TruffleShuffle

[Chocolate Milk]

Cedeno is still outplaying him.

[TruffleShuffle]

Cedeno is still outplaying him.

 

really? i hadn't noticed. thanks for the tip.

[BigbadB]

Let's see, possibly game-losing defensive gaffe and another failure to get a runner in from third with less than two outs.

 

Someone remind me how Theriot always gets the little things right?

 

 

 

Get the pitchforks out. This year's Jacque Jones just made a mistake. Let the avalanche begin.

 

didn't see much from the anti-theriot crowd after his game-winning rbi yesterday. plus, isn't it generally a good idea to try to hit the ball hard? that's what he did in the 8th inning; unfortunately it was a line drive right at helton and it was a dp.

 

I've taken a back seat to who should actually start since both are playing well and the team is playing well, but do you honestly believe that the ball Theriot hit in the 8th inning was a hard hit ball? That's not the way I saw it. And I will admit that Theriot has hit some balls hard these past few weeks.