Too early to worry about Pie?

[Bote McBoteface]

I don't think we should be concerned about Pie considering it's called hitting, not walking. Dude.

[TruffleShuffle]

the consensus on the board all winter was to trade him for mediocre SS who's coming on FA soon. for as much complaining is done about the Soriano contract, wouldn't it stay consistent with their rationale that the bad contract for Soriano necessitates contribution from minimum salary players for the next several seasons? this is where felix, soto, e-patt and theriot/cedeno come in. there are probably few players more important than pie for assuring our window of opportunity isn't closing in a couple years.

 

this is, unless we get a big spender owner.

 

khalil greene? to call him a mediocre SS is to completely misunderstand the average offensive output at the position, and also to ignore the impact that his home ballpark has on his style of hitting. not to mention the fact that he's significantly better defensively than the guy who currently plays ss for the cubs.

[biittner77]

What more can the kid do to convince fans to give him a chance?

fixed

 

i think just about everyone on this board is willing to give him an extended chance in CF. but, i think it would be wise to understand that he is not a sure thing, and that there may be a point this season where the cubs have to throw in the towel on him and find a guy who will perform at a higher level. this is not a 70-win team; the cubs can't throw guys out there and allow them to fail for an entire year.

 

They seem to be willing to do that with Theriot.

 

Why is it that some people are worried about Pie yet everyone seems certain that Soto will be fine despite very bleh numbers this spring? Based on their respective minor league numbers Soto is the one that people should worry about.

[TruffleShuffle]

They seem to be willing to do that with Theriot.

 

That's because in their opinion, there are not any better options within the system than theriot. i happen to agree with them in that i think he is better than ronny cedeno; however, i think this team would easily be better with roberts at 2b and derosa at ss, or even eric patterson at 2b and derosa at ss.

 

Why is it that some people are worried about Pie yet everyone seems certain that Soto will be fine despite very bleh numbers this spring? Based on their respective minor league numbers Soto is the one that people should worry about.

 

i think the assumption is that even if soto performs below his projections this year, he will still put up something like a .250/.315/.380 line, which isn't terrible for a catcher. plus soto plays plus defense, so he will be an asset even if he hits like yadier molina.

[TruffleShuffle]

the other issue is that the major league average output for each guy's position is:

 

CF: .272/.337/.420/.757

C: .254/.317/.393/.711

 

so the bar is a few notches lower for soto to reach the offensive output of a league-average catcher.

[sneakypower]

khalil greene? to call him a mediocre SS is to completely misunderstand the average offensive output at the position, and also to ignore the impact that his home ballpark has on his style of hitting. not to mention the fact that he's significantly better defensively than the guy who currently plays ss for the cubs.

last year in his best season, he was something like 16th among shortstops in WARP. and he was -3 defender whereas Theriot was +1. and i'm considerably skeptical he'll keep hitting 27 HRs rather than his usual 15. im not saying i completely agree with the methodology used to determine these numbers, but those are the only arguments people accept on this board, so i included them for reference.

 

pie's a question mark, but khalil's road numbers translating perfectly is a certainty? im going to have to disagree.

[TruffleShuffle]

khalil greene? to call him a mediocre SS is to completely misunderstand the average offensive output at the position, and also to ignore the impact that his home ballpark has on his style of hitting. not to mention the fact that he's significantly better defensively than the guy who currently plays ss for the cubs.

last year in his best season, he was something like 16th among shortstops in WARP. and he was -3 defender whereas Theriot was +1. and i'm considerably skeptical he'll keep hitting 27 HRs rather than his usual 15. im not saying i completely agree with the methodology used to determine these numbers, but those are the only arguments people accept on this board, so i included them for reference.

 

he's reaching his late 20s, which are his prime years. there's no reason to think his numbers would get worse. and in their 2008 handbook, they acknowledge that their defensive system does not properly give him credit, and that he's a very good defender. i think you'd be hard-pressed to find anyone who thinks theriot is on par with greene defensively.

 

pie's a question mark, but khalil's road numbers translating perfectly is a certainty? im going to have to disagree.

 

 

2005: .244/.308/.465/.773

2006: .280/.356/.507/.863

2007: .288/.322/.519/.840

 

i'm not sure how much more evidence you need. go back through his entire career, and it's very obvious that petco has a very negative impact on his offense. he's a pull power hitter who hits more fly balls than ground balls. there probably isn't a worse place for that type of hitter than petco.

[CubFanPhilly]

A 500+ SLG would go a long way towards making up for Pie's likely .320-.330ish OBP. I think he'll struggle early, but if they don't prematurely pull the plug he'll figure it out.

 

btw- I hate the idea of bringing in a Marlon Byrd or Coco Crisp. A much bettter Plan B would be a straight Murton/Pie platoon in LF and Soriano back to CF.

[sneakypower]

would Shane Victorino be well served to be traded and taken out of Citizen Bank, where he's performed much better over his career? road-away splits are fluky when extreme park factors aren't in play (pre-humidor Coors). the Petco dimensions don't generally punish RH pull hitters, it's CF and RF that are especially spacious.

 

wrigley's more friendly to RH pull hitters?

 

WF:

Distances from plate:

Left field - 355 feet

Left-center - 368 feet

Center field - 400 feet

 

PP:

Dimensions:

Left-Field Line: 336 feet

Left Field: 357 feet

Center Field: 396 feet

 

last years petco with wrigley overlay. looks like he'd have had 2 more HRs for sure and possibly another 1 or 2 playing in wrigley for the home games if those found their way into the basket. but he's also playing different teams for 72 of the road games. i'm just not sold.

http://i43.photobucket.com/albums/e382/harryddunn/khalilinwrigley.jpg?t=1206411381

[Tracer Bullet]

would Shane Victorino be well served to be traded and taken out of Citizen Bank, where he's performed much better over his career? road-away splits are fluky when extreme park factors aren't in play (pre-humidor Coors). the Petco dimensions don't generally punish RH pull hitters, it's CF and RF that are especially spacious.

 

wrigley's more friendly to RH pull hitters?

 

WF:

Distances from plate:

Left field - 355 feet

Left-center - 368 feet

Center field - 400 feet

 

PP:

Dimensions:

Left-Field Line: 336 feet

Left Field: 357 feet

Center Field: 396 feet

 

last years petco with wrigley overlay. looks like he'd have had 2 more HRs for sure and possibly another 1 or 2 playing in wrigley for the home games if those found their way into the basket. but he's also playing different teams for 72 of the road games. i'm just not sold.

http://i43.photobucket.com/albums/e382/harryddunn/khalilinwrigley.jpg?t=1206411381

 

If I'm reading that correctly, LCF at Petco isn't really 357, it's more like 402. That's about 35 feet of extra space beyond where Wrigley's wall is. Plays pretty close to 40' difference with the basket. If he's pulling them down the line, Wrigley will hurt him. But in the alleys, Wrigely is much smaller.

[TruffleShuffle]

would Shane Victorino be well served to be traded and taken out of Citizen Bank, where he's performed much better over his career? road-away splits are fluky when extreme park factors aren't in play (pre-humidor Coors). the Petco dimensions don't generally punish RH pull hitters, it's CF and RF that are especially spacious.

 

look i don't know what point you're trying to make here. greene has been a far, far better hitter on the road, not just in a pure numbers sense, but also relative to the performance of his other teammates. he is a below-average petco hitter and an above-average road hitter. feel free to chalk this up as a fluke; however, i think that after more than 1000 plate appearances both home and away, we're pretty safe in drawing the conclusion that khailil greene's offensive performance suffers in petco to a significantly greater degree than most other hitters in the league.

[Tyrant]

A 500+ SLG would go a long way towards making up for Pie's likely .320-.330ish OBP.

 

I'll eat a shoe if Felix slugs over .500 this season.

[Warpticon]

A 500+ SLG would go a long way towards making up for Pie's likely .320-.330ish OBP.

 

I'll eat a shoe if Felix slugs over .500 this season.

 

Gooooo Felix!

[BigbadB]

would Shane Victorino be well served to be traded and taken out of Citizen Bank, where he's performed much better over his career? road-away splits are fluky when extreme park factors aren't in play (pre-humidor Coors). the Petco dimensions don't generally punish RH pull hitters, it's CF and RF that are especially spacious.

 

wrigley's more friendly to RH pull hitters?

 

WF:

Distances from plate:

Left field - 355 feet

Left-center - 368 feet

Center field - 400 feet

 

PP:

Dimensions:

Left-Field Line: 336 feet

Left Field: 357 feet

Center Field: 396 feet

 

last years petco with wrigley overlay. looks like he'd have had 2 more HRs for sure and possibly another 1 or 2 playing in wrigley for the home games if those found their way into the basket. but he's also playing different teams for 72 of the road games. i'm just not sold.

http://i43.photobucket.com/albums/e382/harryddunn/khalilinwrigley.jpg?t=1206411381

 

You can't just overlay two parks to draw any realistic conclusions. You are forgetting that there is a marine layer that drifts in off the ocean late in the afternoon that just kills the distance balls travel.

 

Adrian Gonzalez: Home: 10 HRs Away: 20 HRs

Brian Giles: Home: 1 HR Away: 12 HR's

Khalil Greene: Home: 12 HR's Away: 15 HR's

Kouzmanoff: Home: 5 HR's Away: 13 HR's

Mike Cameron: Home: 10 HR's Away: 11 HR's

 

Petco plays as one of the worst hitting parks in the league, and most of the other west coast parks aren't that far off from Petco.

[hardcorecubfan]

yes, too early

 

We are Cub fans, it is never to early to be pessimistic

[RynoRules]

Bump

 

Neyer on Pie:

 

Rob Nielsen (Chicago): Hey Rob, as I sit waiting for the rain to stop (at least it's not snow!)...what's your thoughts on Felix Pie? Legit everyday player, or Corey Patterson, Part Two?

 

Rob Neyer: (3:04 PM ET ) A platoon (or semi-platoon) is advisable this season, but eventually Pie should be a good everyday player.

[abuck1220]

A 500+ SLG would go a long way towards making up for Pie's likely .320-.330ish OBP.

 

a .600 slg would be even better. now that i think about it, a .700 slg would be even better.