March Madness Thread

[ISUCubsFan]

In 3:39 of the second half, Kent State has as many points as they did in the whole first half.

 

...

 

And still the UNLV lead grows.

[Guest]

Oh you silly people who picked Kent State over UNLV.

 

Of course I thought I had Marquette over Kentucky, but apparently I picked Kentucky. Meh.

You picked Marquette in the NSBB bracket tourny on Yahoo. Bah.

 

I did that differently at the work pool, good thing I changed it when I did the NSBB one. I think I'll root for Kentucky to somehow come back because I'm more likely to win the $100 at work than win anything from Yahoo.

[B]

Oh you silly people who picked Kent State over UNLV.

 

Of course I thought I had Marquette over Kentucky, but apparently I picked Kentucky. Meh.

You picked Marquette in the NSBB bracket tourny on Yahoo. Bah.

 

I did that differently at the work pool, good thing I changed it when I did the NSBB one. I think I'll root for Kentucky to somehow come back because I'm more likely to win the $100 at work than win anything from Yahoo.

 

I'm rooting for Kentucky too. I have $1500 on the line

[Banedon]

Oh you silly people who picked Kent State over UNLV.

 

Of course I thought I had Marquette over Kentucky, but apparently I picked Kentucky. Meh.

You picked Marquette in the NSBB bracket tourny on Yahoo. Bah.

 

I did that differently at the work pool, good thing I changed it when I did the NSBB one. I think I'll root for Kentucky to somehow come back because I'm more likely to win the $100 at work than win anything from Yahoo.

 

I'm rooting for Kentucky too. I have $1500 on the line

 

Is that a pool or is did you bet $1500 on that single game?

[CubColtPacer]

Hmm, I wonder if the Big 10 can beat its expected record in this tournament after all.

 

By their seeds, the Big 10 should win 5.5 games in this tournament

1 win for Pudue

1.5 for Michigan State

2.5 for Wisconsin

.5 for Indiana

 

They've got 1 now, and Purdue is well on their way to a 2nd. It would be nice to get to 6 or 7 to get a little bit of respect back for the conference.

 

Why the .5's? The way I see it:

 

Purdue - 6 seed - 1 win

Michigan State - 5 seed - 1 win

Wisconsin - 3 seed - 2 wins

Indiana - 8 seed - 1 win

 

Which comes out to 5 expected wins. Despite how consecutive-seed games may seem like toss-ups, the higher seed is still the expected favorite.

 

I'm trying to account for those consecutive seed games, and yes I don't think that there is always a favorite there. The committee moves teams all the time 1 line up or down from how they rank them in order to make the bracket work. We have no idea which teams they moved during the process, so it makes sense to account for that by making consecutive seed game tossups.

 

If I was actually doing a formula for it, I'd also make the difference smaller as you get to the higher number seeds. The difference between a typical 1 seed and a typical 2 seed is bigger than the difference between a typical 2 and a typical 3, and that continues all the way down the line. By the time you get to the 7-11 range, many of those teams are very similar as there is much smaller differences between each seed line.

[bukie]

I'm trying to account for those consecutive seed games, and yes I don't think that there is always a favorite there. The committee moves teams all the time 1 line up or down from how they rank them in order to make the bracket work. We have no idea which teams they moved during the process, so it makes sense to account for that by making consecutive seed game tossups.

 

If I was actually doing a formula for it, I'd also make the difference smaller as you get to the higher number seeds. The difference between a typical 1 seed and a typical 2 seed is bigger than the difference between a typical 2 and a typical 3, and that continues all the way down the line. By the time you get to the 7-11 range, many of those teams are very similar as there is much smaller differences between each seed line.

 

Teams get moved by seed line, yes, but often to account for conference conflicts. So, obviously teams don't get moved from the 8 line to the 9 line, or vice versa, since that doesn't do anything. Same with 4 to 5 and 2 to 3, which are the only other seed lines that are consecutively expected to be played. 1 seeds are never moved off the 1 seed line (since the whole bracket is built around those 1 seeds). If anything, the gap between a 2 and 3, a 4 and 5, or an 8 and 9 is smaller than it should be as the result of teams moving seed lines.

 

The only team this year which obviously appeared to be moved down a line was Marquette (since there were already 4 BE teams in the 4/5/12/13 bracket in Pitt, UConn, ND and Villanova).

[B]

Oh you silly people who picked Kent State over UNLV.

 

Of course I thought I had Marquette over Kentucky, but apparently I picked Kentucky. Meh.

You picked Marquette in the NSBB bracket tourny on Yahoo. Bah.

 

I did that differently at the work pool, good thing I changed it when I did the NSBB one. I think I'll root for Kentucky to somehow come back because I'm more likely to win the $100 at work than win anything from Yahoo.

 

I'm rooting for Kentucky too. I have $1500 on the line

 

Is that a pool or is did you bet $1500 on that single game?

 

Haha, I guess I didn't make it very clear. That's a pool.

[CubColtPacer]

I'm trying to account for those consecutive seed games, and yes I don't think that there is always a favorite there. The committee moves teams all the time 1 line up or down from how they rank them in order to make the bracket work. We have no idea which teams they moved during the process, so it makes sense to account for that by making consecutive seed game tossups.

 

If I was actually doing a formula for it, I'd also make the difference smaller as you get to the higher number seeds. The difference between a typical 1 seed and a typical 2 seed is bigger than the difference between a typical 2 and a typical 3, and that continues all the way down the line. By the time you get to the 7-11 range, many of those teams are very similar as there is much smaller differences between each seed line.

 

Teams get moved by seed line, yes, but often to account for conference conflicts. So, obviously teams don't get moved from the 8 line to the 9 line, or vice versa, since that doesn't do anything. Same with 4 to 5 and 2 to 3, which are the only other seed lines that are consecutively expected to be played. 1 seeds are never moved off the 1 seed line (since the whole bracket is built around those 1 seeds). If anything, the gap between a 2 and 3, a 4 and 5, or an 8 and 9 is smaller than it should be as the result of teams moving seed lines.

 

The only team this year which obviously appeared to be moved down a line was Marquette (since there were already 4 BE teams in the 4/5/12/13 bracket in Pitt, UConn, ND and Villanova).

 

They move many more teams than that though. For example, when Georgia came into the field 10 teams ended up getting moved just from that change alone.

[Derwood]

oh well UK, bad pick for me there. i effed up Kent State too

 

EDIT: not so fast, UK within 3 with 38.1 to go

[Jon]

Wow. Kentucky will not go down quietly.

[bukie]

They move many more teams than that though. For example, when Georgia came into the field 10 teams ended up getting moved just from that change alone.

 

That's not so much moving the seed line as an entirely different bracket, which was likely ready well ahead of time just in case. The committee likely had to have 4 separate brackets ready depending on the results of Sunday's games (one with Illinois/Georgia both losing, one with Illinois/Georgia both winning, one with Illinois winning/Georgia losing, and one with Illinois losing/Georgia winning). That affects the S-curve itself, not the individual seed-line moves.

 

More often than not, there are very few seed-line moves, only used in cases where a conference team HAS to move to the other half of a bracket (i.e. Marquette this year). The only conferences where seed-line moves would have been forced to come into play would be the Big East with 8 teams, and the Pac 10 and Big 12 with 6 teams each. More often, the committee will move teams along the same seed line to a different matchup within the same seed-line (for example, say Notre Dame and Villanova were matched up with each other on the S-curve...easy enough to shift Villanova over to another 5-12 matchup and move a small conference team into that slot with ND). This is why I am inclined to believe the seed difference is at least as significant as it looks. The closest matchups are things like the worst 2 seed against the best 3 seed (and so-on down with 4-5 and 8-9 matchups).

[Jon]

2 point game!

[bukie]

Crawford playing absolutely out of his mind today to keep Kentucky in it.

[Guest]

And UNLV is about to screw up my $1,000,000 perfect bracket. Oh well.

[Jon]

Kudos to Marquette. Kentucky really stepped it up, but Marquette didn't blink at all. They shot well from the line down the stretch and didn't turn it over.

[JoshiQ]

And UNLV is about to screw up my $1,000,000 perfect bracket. Oh well.

 

I know the feeling. :(

[VanceJergins]

Damnit, I had Georgia, Portland State, Temple, and KY as my final four.

[bukie]

dag nabbit, I had Georgia, Portland State, Temple, and KY as my final four.

 

On the bright side, that combination would set you a record for the fastest complete implosion of the bracket. It was dead before the games even started.

[VanceJergins]

dag nabbit, I had Georgia, Portland State, Temple, and KY as my final four.

 

On the bright side, that combination would set you a record for the fastest complete implosion of the bracket. It was dead before the games even started.

 

I have inside sources. Their opponents were suppose to throw the games.

[bukie]

Baylor's performance this afternoon has me concerned with my faith in the Big 12 for tonight's games.

[CubColtPacer]

Baylor's performance this afternoon has me concerned with my faith in the Big 12 for tonight's games.

 

Baylor is pretty dependent on how well they shoot. They're 6/22 from 3 point land right now.

 

From watching most of their game though, I wouldn't be surprised to see Baylor get this within 6 points by the end of this game.

[Andy]

Well, Marquette can bite me. Now 6-1.

[Derwood]

i didn't even see who won the play-in game

[VanceJergins]

Baylor's performance this afternoon has me concerned with my faith in the Big 12 for tonight's games.

 

Baylor is pretty dependent on how well they shoot. They're 6/22 from 3 point land right now.

 

From watching most of their game though, I wouldn't be surprised to see Baylor get this within 6 points by the end of this game.

 

The first half it looked like they were playing with oven mits on their hands.

[bukie]

Kent State trying to make the final score respectable, down 13 with 40 seconds to play.