MacPhail: Deal is dead (p. 297), stop posting, go outside

[17 Seconds]

Ugh. The Sun-Times says the Cubs have an offer of Gallagher/Ceda/Veal/Cedeno on the table.

 

IF this is true, then

 

a)Hendry is a complete moron, and

b)Why hasn't this been accepted yet?

 

No kidding on both. If this deal goes through, despite their histronics, the Orioles have a pretty damn impressive offseason in terms of rebuilding their team.

 

Which will piss me off because it will only be due to 3 horrible GM's.

[mhuber92211]

The good point about value of prospects is a valid one when only considering how high the current value is for the said prospects.

 

It is a fact that fans of a team will overvalue everyone in their own organization and devalue those in others. Given that fact you have to assume that the value that the collective has for the current crop of tradeable assets is lower then what is reality. Given that, the ultimate question comes down to timing. Sell high right? Is it better to sell at 80% of value early or to wait and let the window pass and end up selling at 40% value? There is inherent risk involved.

 

The prevailing thought is that too much value was given up in the Pierre trade no matter what ended up happening with those prospects. True but how much real world value did Mitre have? Probably the same as Marquis does currently. Did Mitre's window pass by earlier? Probably.

 

The key to trading is to have the hype around your prospects, depth in the system to recover when uneven trades are made, catch the right time window, have a willing partner and address a need on your own team. No wonder trades are hard to make, especially when the partner knows nearly as much as you do about your system.

 

In this case MacPhail knows exactly how high the organization is on certain players and he is using that as leverage in the talks. This is why they are taking a long time.

 

But the value of the same players are different in each trade. Baltimore values Cedeno more than the Red Sox would because they have a need. The Red Sox value Marquis more than the O's because they have a more immediate need. So I guess the real key to a great trade is to deal from depth and deal prospects you only pretend to care about and fill a glaring hole.

 

Good Luck on that.

[badnews]

If that's the case and Hendry tabled talks permanently because it's taking too long would you congratulate him for passing on a great trade simply because he was impatient?

 

That seems like an unlikely reach given what's been reported about the deal. I don't really think using an unlikely best-case-scenario example of why that possibly might not be a good idea is really a compelling case against it, in my opinion.

 

I would. I'm not convinced at all that Cedeno will ever be much of a hitter and Veal has some very serious question marks.

 

There is quite a vocal contingent that seems to be okay with pretty much any trade concerning Roberts. What confuses me are people who think Gallagher and Veal and such are just nothing, but shudder at the idea of giving up Ceda. I'm sorry, I just don't value relief prospects who put up good but troubling numbers in Low A as highly as most people, I guess.

 

What's the advantage to walking away versus leaving his offer on the table.

 

At this point, something else besides "Discussions are ongoing/A deal will be reached in a week/The Orioles are deciding which players they want" would be nice. I think it would be better for the possibly players involved and the team overall if Hendry said this was a closed matter by Opening Day, perhaps even if it really wasn't.

[badnews]

RynoHawk23, your post is condescending and insulting.

 

I can tell that many of you really aren't that old, and really have not suffered or shared the great GREAT exhiliration that comes with living the Cubs fan life.

 

No, you can't tell anything of the sort from that. You make ill-informed presumptions, but that is about it.

 

But I do know one thing, I want to win. I want to win now. I don't want to go into the season hoping to fill holes by the trade deadline and seeing how we are doing in June to decide.

 

And Brian Roberts is the best way to do this? I am not close to convinced of that.

 

So when you say you would "be upset" or "Hendry should walk away" about trading 4 players that MIGHT help us in 2-3 years down the road for a proven all-star calliber professional player in the vein of a Derrek Lee

 

The exaggeration here is too much. Roberts is nothing like Derrek Lee. You're trying too hard to build this guy up.

 

,just shows me that you don't get it yet.

 

That's what's insulting. Maybe YOU don't get it yet. Maybe you don't justify every crap trade with the line about "winning now," or "We haven't won the World Series in a long time." Every time Hendry collapses on one trade it probably makes the next one more difficult. The problem is, people like you use this kind of rationale on every "flavor of the month" player the Cubs are rumored to be after as the last piece to the World Series. It never ends. Everyone the Cubs are interested in the LAST PIECE to that elusive World Series championship. I just don't buy it. I don't buy the Cubs without Roberts are not a 1st round exit and the Cubs with Roberts are WS champs.

 

This is the kind of logic where trades like the A.J. Pierzynski trade gets done. "Our window of winning the World Series with Barry Bonds is shrinking, and we've gone FOREVER without winning the World Series! If we can trade 3 nobody players for a PROVEN ALL-STAR like A.J. Pierzynski and build upon our playoff appearance last year, let's do it!" First people were campaigning that giving up 3 players would be worth it, now 4, 5 seems hot on those heels.

 

I don't even think it's Brian Roberts you like so much I think you like the idea of doing something that seems new and pro-active and blah blah.

 

How did that work out? Is it just me, or do the Cleveland Indians look pretty good without having to campaign for irrational trades under the mantra of "We haven't won the World Series in a long time!"

I know the mindset, you want our own players coming up and building a "Cubs Dynasty." You want them to be the guys that you knew they were going to be great back in the day.

 

That's not what happens though, the most likely scenario is that all four of those guys aren't going to make an impact, and hell they might not even make it. (Example - every one flames Hendry for the Pierre trade - but what do the Marlins really have to show for that trade? Sergio Mitre?!?!) So to be able to add a winning player, a player that can shape our team in a way that is only beneficial, and a player that clearly gives us the ability to realistically challenge for the NL pennant - I don't know how ANY of you can say no. It would be great if we could build a dynasty of our own prospects. But that is a once in a lifetime kind of thing. We have the team built to win now, win this year. If we can add Roberts, and THEN take our chances of adding more at the trade deadline, then we are acting like the winner we want to be.

 

Flame away.

 

You advocate trading our three best pitching prospects for Brian Roberts, then trading MORE (from where) at the deadline, and this is a smart way to win a World Series? Pin all of your hopes on one year when the AL champ is likely to put a beatdown on anyone anyway? No way. I don't agree at all, and I think thinking that Roberts puts this team anywhere close to over the top is just wishful thinking on your part.

 

The same could be said for more suitors becoming available for Roberts. Then the price may be even higher.

 

The price is going to be higher than our 3 best pitching prospects + more, which is already is? Doubtful. We're not talking about Miguel Cabrera, though some have forgotten this.

[badnews]

I would make this trade because it makes the end of our bench better. DeRosa would be a GREAT pinch hitter and bench player. He can easily eclipse 400 at bats with some of the fragile pieces of our roster. It will also keep a fringe Dusty Baker type player off the active roster.

 

That sounds like smart baseball to me. Every team trades their three best pitching prospects plus more "to strengthen their bench." I also doubt DeRosa is going to hit 400 ABs.

[badnews]

There's two problems I see with the people who favor a Roberts trade:

 

1) There is no such thing as "too much." We want to win this year, so it behooves us to make a trade, no matter how we're overpaying. Nevermind that then by signalling we're doing so we're likely to be held for ransom even worse at the trade deadline. We want to win now, so that justifies any bad trade, which, history shows, is not a particular smart way think. The price for Roberts keeps going up and up and you fellows keep saying "Do it, do it."

 

2). The same people are talking about us picking up a starter at the deadline when I don't see any chips left for doing so after we've been taken for such a ride on this Roberts thing.

 

I think it's a bad idea to keep making these highly emotional appeals to just use a scorched earth policy for one year and then we can not contend for another decade if we don't make it.

[RedFlash]

Ugh. The Sun-Times says the Cubs have an offer of Gallagher/Ceda/Veal/Cedeno on the table.

 

IF this is true, then

 

a)Hendry is a complete moron, and

b)Why hasn't this been accepted yet?

 

http://www.suntimes.com/sports/baseball/cubs/842384,CST-SPT-brian14.article

 

I don't believe that offer is true, unless the Cubs are getting a 2nd player in return (we've heard Sherrill's name to the Cubs, before). The main reason why I don't buy that rumor is that, I odubt the O's are going to get another deal like that before the season begins. And if the O's plan on trading him at the deadline, no team is going to trade 4 players in the midst of playoff run. At best, the O's would get three players. So I don't buy the Suntimes article.

[RyneDawson]

The Baltimore Sun also said that that deal has been offered. Well they said Veal, Gallagher, and Cedeno for sure. And they talked about including Ceda as well. I believe that IS the offer. And I hope the Orioles accept so we can finally get Roberts here.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

If the price is Gallagher, Cedeno, Veal, and Ceda, I hope Baltimore rejects it and saves Hendry from this debacle.

[C.C.]

If the Cubs are indeed offering that, why haven't the O's jumped on it?

[BigbadB]

If the deal hinged on moving DeRosa to SS and sliding Roberts in at 2nd, I'd be more in favor of making this deal. Right now, I'm tossed as to whether the Cubs should do it.

 

While we are talking about 3 of the Cubs best pitching prospects, only Gallagher is someone I would actually miss. Cedeno doesn't have options and I'm not sure what kind of production he brings to the table as a back of the bench utility player, but I don't like his chances of being any better than Cintron in that capacity. The organization values Theriot above Cedeno, and it doesn't appear they will be changing their minds this spring.

 

As far as Baltimore making a nice haul, I don't see it. From Tejada, to Bedard and now the rumored Roberts deal, the only real certain player to make an impact at the major league level, IMO, is Adam Jones. To me, that's not a very good score. I think Florida did better with trading Willis and Cabrera in a package deal. In other words, Baltimore got quantity, but I don't think they got quality. Sure, there are several guys who are a work in progress, but there are not many guarantees in the packages they received. Troy Patton is out for the season with some sort of surgery on his throwing arm.

 

I absolutely want to win now. I think the Cubs could be in a win now situation with Mark DeRosa playing 2nd everday. Of course, in that scenario, I would have looked for an upgrade at SS which is where Hendry should have been spending most of his offseason looking to upgrade.

[YearofDaCubs]

If indeed the latest offer is true, Hendry has truly lost it.

[CuseCubFan69]

It's possible that those are the Cubs guys that are moving but perhaps Hendry is looking at one of the O's prospects and that's what's taking up the time. Also, do the O's have a decent young SS in their system that is 2 or 3 years away from the Bigs?

[Backtobanks]

It's possible that those are the Cubs guys that are moving but perhaps Hendry is looking at one of the O's prospects and that's what's taking up the time. Also, do the O's have a decent young SS in their system that is 2 or 3 years away from the Bigs?

 

The optimist in me hopes you are right, but the realist in me says the deal is for just Roberts or Roberts and Payton.

[CuseCubFan69]

It's possible that those are the Cubs guys that are moving but perhaps Hendry is looking at one of the O's prospects and that's what's taking up the time. Also, do the O's have a decent young SS in their system that is 2 or 3 years away from the Bigs?

 

The optimist in me hopes you are right, but the realist in me says the deal is for just Roberts or Roberts and Payton.

 

Maybe...Hendry does pull a rabbit out of his hat once in a while when it comes to getting a team to add a prospect. Granted, usually it's a pitcher but I'd love to see a young SS guy thrown in there....if the O's have one.

[Springfield_CUBBY]

I can tell that many of you really aren't that old, and really have not suffered or shared the great GREAT exhiliration that comes with living the Cubs fan life. Many of you have probably only heard of 1969(me too), 1984 and 1989, and didn't actually live through it. Some of you might not even come close to appreciating how sweet and bittersweet 2003 really was (Do you realize how awful it was to be a Cubs fan from 1990-2002? 1998 was great, but team wise just a tease). For me 2007 wasn't that great. No one had a great year, the team really was crap until June, in general it was winning a division that was pretty blah and it all ended with a big flop that we could see coming.

 

I don't have a bunch of stats to throw at you. I don't have a bunch of strong opinions about Hendry or where Soriano should bat. But I do know one thing, I want to win. I want to win now. I don't want to go into the season hoping to fill holes by the trade deadline and seeing how we are doing in June to decide.

 

So when you say you would "be upset" or "Hendry should walk away" about trading 4 players that MIGHT help us in 2-3 years down the road for a proven all-star calliber professional player in the vein of a Derrek Lee, just shows me that you don't get it yet. I know the mindset, you want our own players coming up and building a "Cubs Dynasty." You want them to be the guys that you knew they were going to be great back in the day.

 

That's not what happens though, the most likely scenario is that all four of those guys aren't going to make an impact, and hell they might not even make it. (Example - every one flames Hendry for the Pierre trade - but what do the Marlins really have to show for that trade? Sergio Mitre?!?!) So to be able to add a winning player, a player that can shape our team in a way that is only beneficial, and a player that clearly gives us the ability to realistically challenge for the NL pennant - I don't know how ANY of you can say no. It would be great if we could build a dynasty of our own prospects. But that is a once in a lifetime kind of thing. We have the team built to win now, win this year. If we can add Roberts, and THEN take our chances of adding more at the trade deadline, then we are acting like the winner we want to be.

 

Flame away.

 

I was born in '69;

I cried in my room in '84;

I was at the 1 home playoff game against the Braves in '98;

I found my son crying in his room after the '03 breakdown and thought, "what did I get him in to . . .?"

 

So, yes, I know what it's like . . .

[C.C.]

Punched a hole in the wall in 1984 (I still can't listen to Van Halen's Jump)

Punched a hole in a different wall in 2003.

I just laughed in 1998 and 2007.

[UMFan83]

Punched a hole in the wall in 1984 (I still can't listen to Van Halen's Jump)

Punched a hole in a different wall in 2003.

I just laughed in 1998 and 2007.

 

Thats exactly how I feel but I was too young for 1984. I punched a hole in the wall in 1989.

[C.C.]

Punched a hole in the wall in 1984 (I still can't listen to Van Halen's Jump)

Punched a hole in a different wall in 2003.

I just laughed in 1998 and 2007.

 

Thats exactly how I feel but I was too young for 1984. I punched a hole in the wall in 1989.

 

Crap! I forgot about 1989. I threw my shoe at the TV.

[Burtonbell]

1984 my grandpa died in November. He had a heart attack which I am positive came from the Cubs blowing the series. It was the first time I heard him swear in front of me. I was 6 then. My mom says he and I cried, him because the Cubs lost and she thought I cried because my grandpa cried. She should have know better.

 

Didn't Will Clark hit a grand slam off of Maddux in '89? I remember someone hitting a homer off of him and I cried. I was 11 then. Oh, and I still hate Chris Sabo.

 

1998 I laughed my butt off, I knew we were one hit wonders that year.

 

2003 I cried, broke my toe kicking a wall, broke up with a girlfriend following game 7.

 

2007, I took all my Cubs stuff down in my 3rd bedroom and hung all my bears stuff up. I dug a hole in my backyard to put a bush there. Nothing like digging a hole to get your anger out.

 

Yes, I feel the pain. No I dont want to mortgage the future for Roberts. But I do want Roberts in a Cubs uniform.

[shnsajax]

1984 my grandpa died in November. He had a heart attack which I am positive came from the Cubs blowing the series. It was the first time I heard him swear in front of me. I was 6 then. My mom says he and I cried, him because the Cubs lost and she thought I cried because my grandpa cried. She should have know better.

 

Didn't Will Clark hit a grand slam off of Maddux in '89? I remember someone hitting a homer off of him and I cried. I was 11 then. Oh, and I still hate Chris Sabo.

 

1998 I laughed my butt off, I knew we were one hit wonders that year.

 

2003 I cried, broke my toe kicking a wall, broke up with a girlfriend following game 7.

 

2007, I took all my Cubs stuff down in my 3rd bedroom and hung all my bears stuff up. I dug a hole in my backyard to put a bush there. Nothing like digging a hole to get your anger out.

 

Yes, I feel the pain. No I dont want to mortgage the future for Roberts. But I do want Roberts in a Cubs uniform.

 

I think Will Clark may have hit a 8-run HR that series. He could have single handedly beat the Cubs.

[C.C.]

1984 my grandpa died in November. He had a heart attack which I am positive came from the Cubs blowing the series. It was the first time I heard him swear in front of me. I was 6 then. My mom says he and I cried, him because the Cubs lost and she thought I cried because my grandpa cried. She should have know better.

 

Didn't Will Clark hit a grand slam off of Maddux in '89? I remember someone hitting a homer off of him and I cried. I was 11 then. Oh, and I still hate Chris Sabo.

 

1998 I laughed my butt off, I knew we were one hit wonders that year.

 

2003 I cried, broke my toe kicking a wall, broke up with a girlfriend following game 7.

 

2007, I took all my Cubs stuff down in my 3rd bedroom and hung all my bears stuff up. I dug a hole in my backyard to put a bush there. Nothing like digging a hole to get your anger out.

 

Yes, I feel the pain. No I dont want to mortgage the future for Roberts. But I do want Roberts in a Cubs uniform.

 

I think Will Clark may have hit a 8-run HR that series. He could have single handedly beat the Cubs.

 

 

It was the Will Clark and Mark Grace show. If I remember right Mark Grace had a great series.

[ctcf]

It's possible that those are the Cubs guys that are moving but perhaps Hendry is looking at one of the O's prospects and that's what's taking up the time. Also, do the O's have a decent young SS in their system that is 2 or 3 years away from the Bigs?

 

The optimist in me hopes you are right, but the realist in me says the deal is for just Roberts or Roberts and Payton.

 

Maybe...Hendry does pull a rabbit out of his hat once in a while when it comes to getting a team to add a prospect. Granted, usually it's a pitcher but I'd love to see a young SS guy thrown in there....if the O's have one.

 

If the O's are rebuilding, why would they trade a promising SS guy for Ronny AAAA Cedeno. That makes no sense

[RynoHawk23]

I was probably being too generalistic, I know a lot of you have lived the pain. :) The ones calling for a a walk away from the table were the ones I was referring to.

 

I too don't want to mortgage the future either though, the new trade proposal out today is my limit. I feel like we are giving up a lot (especially pitching), but getting a lot too. But its the right kind of trade for the team that is currently built. Not one of the players in that deal would impact this season. This only adds to the contending team we feel we already have. Plus we would have Roberts for 2 seasons, so the core of this team would be even stronger for the next 2 seasons.

 

I too have to wonder how the Orioles are not accepting this proposal.

[jersey cubs fan]

I was probably being too generalistic, I know a lot of you have lived the pain. :) The ones calling for a a walk away from the table were the ones I was referring to.

 

Walking away from the table is often the best decision somebody could make. Suggesting you couldn't possibly have known the pain of Cubs failures if you think they should walk away from this deal is absurd.