MacPhail: Deal is dead (p. 297), stop posting, go outside

[Lefty]

it has been said numerous times. Hendry is not trying to upgrade 2B as much as upgrade at leadoff. Soriano's legs are not what they used to be. He got on base 40 pts less than brob last year & stole far fewer bases. in an effort to save his legs, he wants to move him down in the order so he can be more in a driving in runs position than as a table setter. the addition of brob & fuko balance out a lineup by giving it much higher obp, better baserunners & the rbi producers in a better position to do just that. when you consider the rocks & indians are the only teams w/ glaring holes at 2B, I agree that it appears hendry is bidding against himself. I'd give andy a final offer & then move on to addressing starting pitching, SS, CF. There is no legit reason for mcfailure to hang onto brob other than to drive up the market. The o's blow & will for some time. Keeping a 30-yr old leadoff hitter that has admitted to roids....that will be a FA in 2 yrs...makes zero sense.

 

And the broken record skips again. One more time:

 

1. Leadoff is not a position.

2. You don't know what Hendry wants any more than any other fan.

 

Ok leadoff might not be a position, but it is still something you need to focus on when building your team. You need a leadoff hitter on your team just like you need a 2B. We have no leadoff hitters, so getting a leadoff hitter should be a top priority. Who cares if it is a position or not! It is a position in the batting order!

 

No you don't! Would the Cubs score more runs with Brian Roberts leading off or Chase Utley? You want to have good players and then sort them out. This is the argument that was used for the wonderful Juan Pierre.

 

You are obviously just a baseball fan. I am a baseball coach. It has been researched for years. Different spots in the order serve different purposes. Of course the Cubs would probably score more runs with Chase Utley batting leadoff rather than Roberts because he has a higher OBP. BUT, if you have Chase Utley on your team, you wouldn't bat him leadoff cuz you aren't utilizing his power and rbi potential. A leadoff hitter needs to take pitches, get on base, and be fast. Then the number 2 hitter should be able to control the bat well. Make a lot of contact, very rarely strike out, and place the ball wherever he wants. Then the number 3-4-5 hitters need to have power and drive those 2 guys in. This is the typical way the batting order should be structured. Soriano hit a ton of solo HR's last year. If he batted after Roberts, then a lot of those solo HR's would turn into 2 run shots. If roberts gets a single then soriano hits a HR we have two runs. If Soriano hits a HR then Roberts singles, we still only have 1 run. You can't just put anyone at leadoff.

 

Actually I am a baseball player, and a pretty good one. Sorry coach. The reason different guys in the lineup have different roles is because most teams can't have good hitters 1-9 so they have to find a place for not-so-great hitters. "Handling" the bat at #2 is irrelevant in an All-Star game right?

 

A coach should know that players don't all find success in the same manner. Soriano is comfortable as a leadoff man. In the past he has struggled at different spots in the lineup. So I don't think you can assume a bunch of two-run shots. And if Soriano Homers and Roberts singles, you may only have 1 run but Lee and Ramirez are coming up. Your run expectation is higher than zero.

 

And I would think the "leadoff man needs to be fast" would have been put to bed by Kevin Youkilis. But Dusty Baker continues to make a nice living so I wouldn't deny the same to you.

[Derwood]

Bottom of the 1st:

 

- Roberts walks

- Roberts caught stealing

- Theriot out 4-3

- Lee out 7 unassisted

 

Bottom of the 2nd:

 

- Ramirez LEADING OFF OH NOES!!!

[ThePenguin11]

I've always been against having Soriano bat first until very recently I heard a good argument in favor of it. Not sure who to quote as it could have been Murph or Stone. It's actually a lot more easy to understand than merely breaking down the statistics because its more tangible.

 

The point that was made was that Soriano batting #1 gave him countless opportunities to see fastballs and not get pitched around with curves and sliders in the dirt constantly. Soriano is being protected by batting first. He's protected by our 2,3,4 hitters who have typically been our best hitters (especially Lee and Ramirez).

 

If Lou was to move Soriano to the fifth spot where he'd be protected by Theriot, Soto, Pie, then pitchers could throw him junk all day and let him get himself out. There'd be no reason to keep trying to pepper fastballs by him all day.

 

Honestly, if I was an opposing manager, I would never change my approach with Soriano because I don't think he has the discipline to not swing at the junk pitches even in the 1 spot. However, teams still throw him the fastballs and he keeps hitting them. Think about how many times you saw Soriano turn on a breaking ball last year (even a hanger for that matter). It's a rare occurance. He, like Sosa was, is very much a mistake-hitter. If you accidently leave a fastball middle-in or thereabouts...he turns his hands on it and puts it in the left field bleachers.

 

Personally, I think his best spot in the lineup with this information in mind is #2. Either way you slice it he needs to be protected so whether he bats 1 or 2 is becoming more irrelevant to me. But in a perfect world I'd bat them Roberts, Soriano, Lee, Ramirez in order to give Soriano the occasional additional RBI opportunity.

 

This seems to better explain why Soriano needs to be at the top of the order, doesn't it?

Edited February 13, 2008 by ThePenguin11

[DeuceBaseman]

I'm just going to throw this out there. Is it possible that Alfonso Soriano, being a human being and all, possibly has a mental issue with hitting in a spot other than leadoff? I mean why do guys like Chuck Knobloch, who have been throwing a baseball from 2nd to 1st for 20 years suddenly have major issues doing it? It could be as simple as that and have nothing to do with cause and effect or any other argument anybody is making. I know that may not sit well with some of the stats people on here who want to quantify everything, but that may be it. I think there's a whole lot of stuff out there that can be quantified and analyzed with great accuracy by using numbers, but the human psyche isn't one of them in a lot of cases.

 

Go out and read "The Mental Game of Baseball" by H.A. Dorfman. We were forced to read that on my 13 year old traveling baseball team the Renegades. You could be absolutely right about Soriano's mental capabilities when it comes to batting in a different spot. If that is the case then he should bat leadoff. But I doubt that that's the case, because he didn't want to move to the OF from 2B, and he made a fine transition. He might start off slow in the 5 hole but he'd get used to it. Soriano would be much more valuable to us in the 5 hole with a typical leadoff hitter in the 1 hole. And guys stop talking about having the best player at each position, or having Kevin Youkilis at the top of the order over Roberts and etc... Cuz those guys cost more and play different positions. Plus if we got those guys, they would best be utilized in a different spot in the order. We have a #2 hitter, we have a 3-9 hitters. We just need a leadoff hitter. If we got Youkilis instead of Roberts, then he would probably bat 2nd, he wouldn't bat leadoff, because we aren't utilizing all his attributes in the 1 hole. Roberts is best suited for a leadoff hitter. Of course I'd rather have ARod or Albert Pujols leading off than Roberts, but we can't get those guys, and if we did get them, then we'd be [expletive] to not bad them 3-4. So stop with that stupid argument.

[Ryno12]

Oh, and get out of here with that "causational link" garbage. I have no idea what that means, and I don't care.

 

You should care, because the argument you are trying to make is inherently flawed. Is there a correlation between Soriano's stats being better when batting leadoff, and worse when hitting in the middle of the order, yes. I would argue that it is a strong correlation, too. However, just because there is a correlation, doesn't mean that batting leadoff caused Soriano to have better stats in that role, or that batting in the middle of the order caused him to have worse stats. Is there a chance that it did, maybe, but it has not been proven. Several other factors could and probably do factor into these statistical differences. Therefore, correlation does not imply causation.

 

That being said, I have no problem with Soriano batting leadoff.

[DeuceBaseman]

I've always been against having Soriano bat first until very recently I heard a good argument in favor of it. Not sure to quote as it could have been Murph or Stone. It's actually a lot more easy to understand than merely breaking down the statistics because its more tangible.

 

The point that was made was that Soriano batting #1 gave him countless opportunities to see fastballs and not get pitched around with curves and sliders in the dirt constantly. Soriano is being protected by batting first. He's protected by our 2,3,4 hitters who have typically been our best hitters (especially Lee and Ramirez).

 

If Lou was to move Soriano to the fifth spot where he'd be protected by Theriot, Soto, Pie, then pitchers could throw him junk all day and let him get himself out. There'd be no reason to keep trying to pepper fastballs by him all day.

 

Honestly, if I was an opposing manager, I would never change my approach with Soriano because I don't think he has the discipline to not swing at the junk pitches even in the 1 spot. However, teams still throw him the fastballs and he keeps hitting them. Think about how many times you saw Soriano turn on a breaking ball last year (even a hanger for that matter). It's a rare occurance. He, like Sosa was, is very much a mistake-hitter. If you accidently leave a fastball middle-in or thereabouts...he turns his hands on it and puts it in the left field bleachers.

 

Personally, I think his best spot in the lineup with this information in mind is #2. Either way you slice it he needs to be protected so whether he bats 1 or 2 is becoming more irrelevant to me. But in a perfect world I'd bat them Roberts, Soriano, Lee, Ramirez in order to give Soriano the occasional additional RBI opportunity.

 

This seems to better explain why Soriano needs to be at the top of the order, doesn't it?

 

At the end of the year when I was watching Soriano leadoff, here is how the at bat went:

-First pitch curve in the dirt landing a foot in front of the plate, swing and a miss striike one.

-2nd pitch high fast ball above the head, swing and a miss strike two.

-3rd pitch curve in the dirt in the opposite batters box, swing and a miss strike three.

 

No matter if Soriano is batting 1st or 5th, the pitches he sees won't be that different because pitchers know how he hits.

[ThePenguin11]

I've always been against having Soriano bat first until very recently I heard a good argument in favor of it. Not sure to quote as it could have been Murph or Stone. It's actually a lot more easy to understand than merely breaking down the statistics because its more tangible.

 

The point that was made was that Soriano batting #1 gave him countless opportunities to see fastballs and not get pitched around with curves and sliders in the dirt constantly. Soriano is being protected by batting first. He's protected by our 2,3,4 hitters who have typically been our best hitters (especially Lee and Ramirez).

 

If Lou was to move Soriano to the fifth spot where he'd be protected by Theriot, Soto, Pie, then pitchers could throw him junk all day and let him get himself out. There'd be no reason to keep trying to pepper fastballs by him all day.

 

Honestly, if I was an opposing manager, I would never change my approach with Soriano because I don't think he has the discipline to not swing at the junk pitches even in the 1 spot. However, teams still throw him the fastballs and he keeps hitting them. Think about how many times you saw Soriano turn on a breaking ball last year (even a hanger for that matter). It's a rare occurance. He, like Sosa was, is very much a mistake-hitter. If you accidently leave a fastball middle-in or thereabouts...he turns his hands on it and puts it in the left field bleachers.

 

Personally, I think his best spot in the lineup with this information in mind is #2. Either way you slice it he needs to be protected so whether he bats 1 or 2 is becoming more irrelevant to me. But in a perfect world I'd bat them Roberts, Soriano, Lee, Ramirez in order to give Soriano the occasional additional RBI opportunity.

 

This seems to better explain why Soriano needs to be at the top of the order, doesn't it?

 

At the end of the year when I was watching Soriano leadoff, here is how the at bat went:

-First pitch curve in the dirt landing a foot in front of the plate, swing and a miss striike one.

-2nd pitch high fast ball above the head, swing and a miss strike two.

-3rd pitch curve in the dirt in the opposite batters box, swing and a miss strike three.

 

No matter if Soriano is batting 1st or 5th, the pitches he sees won't be that different because pitchers know how he hits.

 

1 at bat versus 600. Some pitchers are going to challenge him. And they are smart to do so. But the truth is that most pitchers give him too much credit and feed him fastballs. You obviously saw a sampling of pitchers who had better scouting reports than the vast majority.

[DeuceBaseman]

No I watched just about every at bat. I think he will get the same pitches in the leadoff spot or the 5 hole.

[Derwood]

that last at-bat of the year, eh?

 

I'll give you THREE at-bats, all in the same game! YOU READY?

 

AB #1:

 

Pitch 1: Ball in Play - Home Run

 

AB #2:

 

Pitch 1: Ball in Play - Home Run

 

AB #3:

 

Pitch 1: Foul

Pitch 2: Foul

PItch 3: Ball in Play - Home Run

 

 

See, wasn't that fun?

[WilcoFan]

No I watched just about every at bat. I think he will get the same pitches in the leadoff spot or the 5 hole.

 

And your memory has the ability to file pitch counts, quantify location, and categorize pitches? For 600 unique at bats over the course of 5 months? Wow.

[DeuceBaseman]

that last at-bat of the year, eh?

 

I'll give you THREE at-bats, all in the same game! YOU READY?

 

AB #1:

 

Pitch 1: Ball in Play - Home Run

 

AB #2:

 

Pitch 1: Ball in Play - Home Run

 

AB #3:

 

Pitch 1: Foul

Pitch 2: Foul

PItch 3: Ball in Play - Home Run

 

 

See, wasn't that fun?

 

Yeah it was fun. Now were they all solo shots? I'm sure they were. If he was batting 5th then those 3 HR's would probably net him 7 RBI that game. Instead he probably got 4.

[WilcoFan]

I really hope this team never fields a lineup that looks like this:

 

C: Martin

1B: Lee

2B: Utley

3B: Ramirez

SS: ARod

LF: Bonds

CF: Jones

RF: Guerrero

 

My GOD! WE WOULDN'T HAVE A LEADOFF HITTER!

[inari]

that last at-bat of the year, eh?

 

I'll give you THREE at-bats, all in the same game! YOU READY?

 

AB #1:

 

Pitch 1: Ball in Play - Home Run

 

AB #2:

 

Pitch 1: Ball in Play - Home Run

 

AB #3:

 

Pitch 1: Foul

Pitch 2: Foul

PItch 3: Ball in Play - Home Run

 

 

See, wasn't that fun?

 

Yeah it was fun. Now were they all solo shots? I'm sure they were. If he was batting 5th then those 3 HR's would probably net him 7 RBI that game. Instead he probably got 4.

 

Or they could've just as easily netted him the exact same amount of RBIs! Wowowowowow!

[wekse]

No I watched just about every at bat. I think he will get the same pitches in the leadoff spot or the 5 hole.

 

And your memory has the ability to file pitch counts, quantify location, and categorize pitches? For 600 unique at bats over the course of 5 months? Wow.

 

he's a baseball coach, dude....a BASEBALL COACH.

[ThePenguin11]

that last at-bat of the year, eh?

 

I'll give you THREE at-bats, all in the same game! YOU READY?

 

AB #1:

 

Pitch 1: Ball in Play - Home Run

 

AB #2:

 

Pitch 1: Ball in Play - Home Run

 

AB #3:

 

Pitch 1: Foul

Pitch 2: Foul

PItch 3: Ball in Play - Home Run

 

 

See, wasn't that fun?

 

Yeah it was fun. Now were they all solo shots? I'm sure they were. If he was batting 5th then those 3 HR's would probably net him 7 RBI that game. Instead he probably got 4.

 

You're completely missing the point. He wouldn't have had three homeruns because he probably wouldn't have seen those three fastballs and would more likely seen more crap he couldn't drive. With men on base pitchers can pitch him much more carefully. When he leads off - and when he bats in front of the pitcher, #9 and #8 a pitcher can go right at him because he's not worried about him driving a three-run shot out of the park.

[Post Count Padder]

I really hope this team never fields a lineup that looks like this:

 

C: Martin

1B: Lee

2B: Utley

3B: Ramirez

SS: ARod

LF: Bonds

CF: Jones

RF: Guerrero

 

My GOD! WE WOULDN'T HAVE A LEADOFF HITTER!

Well since by rule the leadoff hitter has to be a SS, 2B or CF, look for Jones, ARod or Utley to leadoff.

[biittner77]

Did any of you actually watch the games last year? Watching him bat in situations with guyson what painful.

 

You mean we can actually watch games? #-o

 

good to know.

[fromthestretch]

And guys stop talking about having the best player at each position, or having Kevin Youkilis at the top of the order over Roberts and etc... Cuz those guys cost more and play different positions. Plus if we got those guys, they would best be utilized in a different spot in the order. We have a #2 hitter, we have a 3-9 hitters. We just need a leadoff hitter. If we got Youkilis instead of Roberts, then he would probably bat 2nd, he wouldn't bat leadoff, because we aren't utilizing all his attributes in the 1 hole. Roberts is best suited for a leadoff hitter. Of course I'd rather have ARod or Albert Pujols leading off than Roberts, but we can't get those guys, and if we did get them, then we'd be [expletive] to not bad them 3-4. So stop with that stupid argument.

 

You're missing the point. It's not about Utley or Youkilis. And no one expects one team to have the best player at each position. The point is that Roberts shouldn't be targeted simply because he bats leadoff. It's stupid to target a player for that sole purpose.

 

As you said before:

 

I'm saying that if Utley was on our team right now batting leadoff then wed score more runs than if Roberts was on our team batting leadoff. But if Utley was on our team batting 3rd we'd score more runs than if he was on our team batting leadoff.

 

That bolded part is independent of who is batting leadoff. In other words, with the way the Cubs roster is currently built, Utley in the middle of the order is better than having Roberts at leadoff. To put it another way, Soriano at leadoff and Utley in the middle of the order is better than Roberts at leadoff and Soriano in the middle of the order. That's because Utley is a better offensive player than Roberts.

 

I'm not saying Roberts is a bad player and that he won't make the Cubs a better team. However, the alleged reason the Cubs are pursuing him (he can bat leadoff) is flawed. You don't pursue a player because he can bat leadoff. You pursue a player because he makes your team better. If that player also happens to get on base frequently and can run well, then great, bat him leadoff. If he doesn't and you can't find another player on your roster that is even remotely capable of hitting at the top of the order, then either you're looking for the wrong qualities for a leadoff hitter (i.e., focused too much on speed) or your roster is flawed to begin with.

 

You try to assemble the best team you can, position-by-position, and then you build the batting order from what you have. What you're suggesting is to build the team based on batting order.

[DeuceBaseman]

I really hope this team never fields a lineup that looks like this:

 

C: Martin

1B: Lee

2B: Utley

3B: Ramirez

SS: ARod

LF: Bonds

CF: Jones

RF: Guerrero

 

My GOD! WE WOULDN'T HAVE A LEADOFF HITTER!

 

Now you guys are just being stupid. I already explained that if you had all these guys then it wouldnt matter. But if you had a Russell Martin on THIS Cubs team, you wouldn't bat him leadoff would you? If you had a Chase Utley you wouldn't bat him leadoff, right? There is a reason for this! Stop being a smart ass and actually post something meaningful.

[DeuceBaseman]

And guys stop talking about having the best player at each position, or having Kevin Youkilis at the top of the order over Roberts and etc... Cuz those guys cost more and play different positions. Plus if we got those guys, they would best be utilized in a different spot in the order. We have a #2 hitter, we have a 3-9 hitters. We just need a leadoff hitter. If we got Youkilis instead of Roberts, then he would probably bat 2nd, he wouldn't bat leadoff, because we aren't utilizing all his attributes in the 1 hole. Roberts is best suited for a leadoff hitter. Of course I'd rather have ARod or Albert Pujols leading off than Roberts, but we can't get those guys, and if we did get them, then we'd be [expletive] to not bad them 3-4. So stop with that stupid argument.

 

You're missing the point. It's not about Utley or Youkilis. And no one expects one team to have the best player at each position. The point is that Roberts shouldn't be targeted simply because he bats leadoff. It's stupid to target a player for that sole purpose.

 

As you said before:

 

I'm saying that if Utley was on our team right now batting leadoff then wed score more runs than if Roberts was on our team batting leadoff. But if Utley was on our team batting 3rd we'd score more runs than if he was on our team batting leadoff.

 

That bolded part is independent of who is batting leadoff. In other words, with the way the Cubs roster is currently built, Utley in the middle of the order is better than having Roberts at leadoff. To put it another way, Soriano at leadoff and Utley in the middle of the order is better than Roberts at leadoff and Soriano in the middle of the order. That's because Utley is a better offensive player than Roberts.

 

I'm not saying Roberts is a bad player and that he won't make the Cubs a better team. However, the alleged reason the Cubs are pursuing him (he can bat leadoff) is flawed. You don't pursue a player because he can bat leadoff. You pursue a player because he makes your team better. If that player also happens to get on base frequently and can run well, then great, bat him leadoff. If he doesn't and you can't find another player on your roster that is even remotely capable of hitting at the top of the order, then either you're looking for the wrong qualities for a leadoff hitter (i.e., focused too much on speed) or your roster is flawed to begin with.

 

You try to assemble the best team you can, position-by-position, and then you build the batting order from what you have. What you're suggesting is to build the team based on batting order.

 

Roberts isn't being acquired just because he is a leadoff hitter. That is one reason and its a big one, but there are many more. We need a guy who gets on base and steals bases, we really dont have any guys who get on base at a high rate and steal bases. He plays good defense, he can bat from both sides of the plate, he is a smart player and a good leader. He is what this team needs. He compliments the other players very well. DeRosa is a great player and I would like to see him play SS if we got Roberts, but I think Roberts is much more needed on this team than DeRosa (whom would still have a big role).

[ThePenguin11]

that last at-bat of the year, eh?

 

I'll give you THREE at-bats, all in the same game! YOU READY?

 

AB #1:

 

Pitch 1: Ball in Play - Home Run

 

AB #2:

 

Pitch 1: Ball in Play - Home Run

 

AB #3:

 

Pitch 1: Foul

Pitch 2: Foul

PItch 3: Ball in Play - Home Run

 

 

See, wasn't that fun?

 

Yeah it was fun. Now were they all solo shots? I'm sure they were. If he was batting 5th then those 3 HR's would probably net him 7 RBI that game. Instead he probably got 4.

 

You're completely missing the point. He wouldn't have had three homeruns because he probably wouldn't have seen those three fastballs and would more likely seen more crap he couldn't drive. With men on base pitchers can pitch him much more carefully. (EDIT: Because they know they have Soto, Theriot, Pie, etc. coming up next) When he leads off - and when he bats in front of the pitcher, #9 and #8 a pitcher can go right at him because he's not worried about him driving a three-run shot out of the park.

Edited February 13, 2008 by ThePenguin11

[Burtonbell]

I like candy.

[inari]

I'm eagerly anticipating another post on cubs.com about how stupid we are.

[mul21]

Geovany Soto likes candy.

[David]

FWIW, I don't completely dismiss the possibility that Soriano is uncomfortable anywhere but #1 in the batting order and that his own confidence affects his ability to hit. I just don't think that it's necessarily the most likely explanation for the splits, and obviously, I don't think it should be assumed that it is.

 

A lot of people just take the idea that Soriano can't hit anywhere else in the lineup as truth.