MacPhail: Deal is dead (p. 297), stop posting, go outside

[Mephistopheles]

A couple of things...

 

What stat or stats are your run scored projections based on?

 

You also can't really assume that this trade would mean having Dempster as the 5th starter. It's one among many possibilities. Even as it stands, it might be that way, or who knows, Lou might go with Kevin Hart or someone else. More importantly, there's still the realistic possibility that they go after another starter, i.e. Burnett. Roberts allows them to include DeRosa in a trade to the Blue Jays.

 

What would a trade for Burnett do for your RA and then overall win projections?

 

EDIT - This was directed at Meph's post

 

EqA, OBP, and a few other things. It doesn't matter if its dempster or not, hart sucks. who ever we put there would be at least 20 runs worse than marshall. i didnt project RA, just RS. A trade for Burnett would probably keep our pitching production near its 2007 level (~700 RA). A trade for Bedard w/o Hill would do about the same. Theyre interchangeable. Id prefer Burnett myself.

 

BTW Meph, any chance you could run the same simulation swapping Derosa for Theriot in the second lineup?

 

839.4 runs, + 14.1

[samhainn77]

A couple of things...

 

What stat or stats are your run scored projections based on?

 

You also can't really assume that this trade would mean having Dempster as the 5th starter. It's one among many possibilities. Even as it stands, it might be that way, or who knows, Lou might go with Kevin Hart or someone else. More importantly, there's still the realistic possibility that they go after another starter, i.e. Burnett. Roberts allows them to include DeRosa in a trade to the Blue Jays.

 

What would a trade for Burnett do for your RA and then overall win projections?

 

EDIT - This was directed at Meph's post

 

EqA, OBP, and a few other things. It doesn't matter if its dempster or not, hart sucks. who ever we put there would be at least 20 runs worse than marshall. i didnt project RA, just RS. A trade for Burnett would probably keep our pitching production near its 2007 level (~700 RA). A trade for Bedard w/o Hill would do about the same. Theyre interchangeable. Id prefer Burnett myself.

 

BTW Meph, any chance you could run the same simulation swapping Derosa for Theriot in the second lineup?

 

839.4 runs, + 14.1

 

 

Thank you!

[Schwarber Fan]

I have a really crappy day scheduled for tomorrow, so hopefully this trade gets done to brighten it up.

[Guest]

This thread will never end.

[UMFan83]

I have a really crappy day scheduled for tomorrow, so hopefully this trade gets done to brighten it up.

 

 

It would probably only make it "marginally" better

[Sterling30]

This thread will never end.

http://www.cnn.com/SHOWBIZ/TV/9808/03/shari.lewis.obit/beach.jpg

... it just goes on and on, my friend...

[mdwilla]

I'm bored , I need some Cubs news soon.

[98navigator]

This thread will never end.

http://www.cnn.com/SHOWBIZ/TV/9808/03/shari.lewis.obit/beach.jpg

... it just goes on and on, my friend...

 

LMAO! I'm not ashamed to say I thought of this as well. :lol:

[Brian]

So we are taking these guys word as truth now? I have a hard time listening to anyone that says "AM is in charge!" like that's a good thing.

[erik316wttn]

I have a really crappy day scheduled for tomorrow, so hopefully this trade gets done and we don't give away too much to brighten it up.

 

Fixed.

[mdwilla]

So we are taking these guys word as truth now? I have a hard time listening to anyone that says "AM is in charge!" like that's a good thing.[/quote

 

It is when AM is taking over for Angelos.

[Rob]

So we are taking these guys word as truth now? I have a hard time listening to anyone that says "AM is in charge!" like that's a good thing.

 

FWIW, simply being able to trade Brian Roberts is a huge step in taking control back from Peter Angelos and his reign of terror.

[Brian]

So we are taking these guys word as truth now? I have a hard time listening to anyone that says "AM is in charge!" like that's a good thing.

 

FWIW, simply being able to trade Brian Roberts is a huge step in taking control back from Peter Angelos and his reign of terror.

 

I was going to clarify my statement with something to the effect of the better of two evils, I suppose.

[Guancous]

What would you guys say if Roberts signed with the Cardinals today?

[inari]

What would you guys say if Roberts signed with the Cardinals today?

 

"When did he become a free agent?!"

[wekse]

What would you guys say if Roberts signed with the Cardinals today?

 

what does this have to do with the cubs trading for roberts?

[Sammy Sofa]

What would you guys say if Roberts signed with the Cardinals today?

 

Like it was said, what does this have to do with the trade? The issue is what the Cubs have to give up to get Roberts in players, not money.

[mdwilla]

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7650072

 

The Cubs remain the most likely fit for Roberts. The Mets made a strong run at Bedard at the general managers' meetings in November. The Indians, who have explored trades for impact players all off-season, like both Roberts and Bedard.

[mdwilla]

Now if the Tribe goes out and gets Roberts/ Bedard does Kenny Williams then start unloading everyone ? The AL central could start to give the AL east a run for it's money talent wise.

[David]

Another guy on there who has been updating them on the trade and claims to have a Cubs source (claims to be hearing the same thing as the O's guys) posted this...

 

 

If you had to guess, what would you say the percentages are that this deal is announced by tomorrow?

well, I've said all along that tomorrow is the day it happens, but you never know these days. But my prediction has always been tuesday.

 

We will see. Jim Hendry, the Cubs GM wants this done so he can move onto A.J. Burnett.

 

This Joey guy has only been on there since this month, so take it FWIW, but he has been "reporting" the same thing as the other insiders. Could just be a Sox or Cards fan trying to pull our legs too, though.

Edited January 8, 2008 by David

[imb]

guys whatever there are children DYING right now. think of the children, down with roberts.

[David]

guys whatever there are children DYING right now. think of the children, down with roberts.

 

Well played.

[badnews]

I think there is zero doubt that the insiders are legit. Was it Peace or Belkast that 100% called the Tejada trade and the players involved hours before any media outlet picked it up?

 

That's not luck. He didn't just guess and then it all happened to be 100% true on the same day he said it. Obviously, there are real ties there. They're not always going to be right, but I think it's fair to say that if we hear one of these "reports," there is something to them.

 

Uh, you'd be wrong. I've had plenty of doubts. I don't think it's smart to give everyone on there or even the one guy in question a free pass because of one rumor that was correct like 3 hours before it was posted. I've seen other blogs do that for other trades. And frankly I'm a little embarrassed at the way people in this topic are kissing the insider's asses and hanging on their every word. Since when did people on here become the papparazzi and the Orioles Insiders movie stars?

 

The Miguel Tejada thing has been posted in here 20 times. Enough already. You'd think the guy parted the Red Sea or something. Let's stop acting like sycophants, this starry-eyed worship of some Orioles fans is undignified and silly. Everybody was instructed like good little boys and girls to take the Eric Patterson-Sean Gallagher-Matt Murton deal as fact, pffft. I also remember the Insiders saying Corey Patterson for Chris Britton and Bryan Bass was a done deal, instead we got Nate Spears and a lump of coal. So yeah, I have doubt.

 

And even if they are right, this amount of sucking up and attention might be appropriate for a guy who singlehandedly handed the Cubs the World Series on a silver platter. Not otherwise.

 

Sorry if that's rude, but I don't think The Pope commands this kind of undying faith.

[badnews]

Also, maybe it's just me, but I don't think "I'm bored" is a good reason to do a trade. And I wonder about the people who say they'd be "very, very happy" to get Roberts at this price, what price they would be unhappy with? Rich Hill, Carlos Marmol, and $20 million in cash? It's clear looking at Swisher and Renteria were traded for the Cubs are getting ripped off.

 

But since they haven't won the World Series in a long time, it's okay to get ripped off, right? Like the Cleveland Indians. They haven't won a World Series in a long time, and they let themselves get ripped off all of the time, right? Oh wait...

 

With Marshall, Cedeno, and Gallagher gone, what is there left to trade for A. J. Burnett even? I don't even see why A. J. Burnett is contingent on Roberts. Even if he's injured he's going to opt out because of the crazy market, doesn't he have 3/33 left on his contract or something? If he's injured he could be a Type B free agent then.

[David]

I think there is zero doubt that the insiders are legit. Was it Peace or Belkast that 100% called the Tejada trade and the players involved hours before any media outlet picked it up?

 

That's not luck. He didn't just guess and then it all happened to be 100% true on the same day he said it. Obviously, there are real ties there. They're not always going to be right, but I think it's fair to say that if we hear one of these "reports," there is something to them.

 

Uh, you'd be wrong. I've had plenty of doubts. I don't think it's smart to give everyone on there or even the one guy in question a free pass because of one rumor that was correct like 3 hours before it was posted. I've seen other blogs do that for other trades. And frankly I'm a little embarrassed at the way people in this topic are kissing the insider's asses and hanging on their every word. Since when did people on here become the papparazzi and the Orioles Insiders movie stars?

 

The Miguel Tejada thing has been posted in here 20 times. Enough already. You'd think the guy parted the Red Sea or something. Let's stop acting like sycophants, this starry-eyed worship of some Orioles fans is undignified and silly. Everybody was instructed like good little boys and girls to take the Eric Patterson-Sean Gallagher-Matt Murton deal as fact, pffft. I also remember the Insiders saying Corey Patterson for Chris Britton and Bryan Bass was a done deal, instead we got Nate Spears and a lump of coal. So yeah, I have doubt.

 

And even if they are right, this amount of sucking up and attention might be appropriate for a guy who singlehandedly handed the Cubs the World Series on a silver platter. Not otherwise.

 

Sorry if that's rude, but I don't think The Pope commands this kind of undying faith.

 

 

This is a bit of a surprisingly rantish response.

 

There is no question in my mind that they're legit. That doesn't mean I have no doubt that what they report will turn out to be true. They're obviously going to hear things that wind up being untrue, just like the sources that journalists have. They'll get bad info sometimes. Things will fall through other times.

 

What I do mean is that I have no doubt in my mind that they have legitimate ties. You don't just predict a trade exactly as it is hours before it's announced by happenstance or luck or coincidence.

 

I'm not even sure what to say about the rest of this crazy diatribe.