ryan howard making a run at single season k record

[rocket]

189 strikeouts right now. needs 196 to beat adam dunn's record. will he do it?

 

if he hadn't spent some time on the dl earlier, he probably would have broken 200 this year. i guess there's still hope.

[Omar]

There's always next year.

[soccer10k]

Ryan Howard is the black Adam Dunn.

 

No seriously:

 

Dunn: .267/.387/.560/.948

Howard: .259/.381/.552/.932

 

Dunn's IsoD and IsoP: .120 and .293

Howard's IsoD and IsoP: .122 and .293.

 

I also didn't realize that Howard had 181 K's last year and 100 in 88 games in 2005. Too bad he got a late start breaking into the big leagues because he's 600 K's behind Dunn on the career list.

[Derwood]

they both K too much, thus they both suck. right? anyone?

[brinoch]

they both K too much, thus they both suck. right? anyone?

 

It's funny actually how people perceive the two different players -- Howard is awesome, but Dunn is terrible. Personally, I'd take 'em both on my team.

[Mephistopheles]

dunn >>>

[Have a seat, Neifi]

I think he might. If the Phillies were out of the race, I could see Little sitting him a few times to 'preserve his health down the stretch' (i.e. keep from breaking a dubious record a la Jose Hernandez with the Brewers), but considering the fact that Philly is within a game or so of the WC, Howard will definitely 1) get every possible AB, and 2) get pitched to by opposing teams (theoretically).

[dew1679666265]

they both K too much, thus they both suck. right? anyone?

 

It's funny actually how people perceive the two different players -- Howard is awesome, but Dunn is terrible. Personally, I'd take 'em both on my team.

 

I think the difference in perception is largely on the defensive abilities of each. Dunn is one of the worst defenders in baseball, Howard is, at least, perceived to be a pretty good defender.

 

Not that it's right or wrong, but I think that's a big factor.

[hardcorecubfan]

they both K too much, thus they both suck. right? anyone?

 

If we say let's compare Dunn with A Rod then he does. would I want him on my team? Ya But he did insult our grounds crew so probably not

[chuckywang]

they both K too much, thus they both suck. right? anyone?

 

If we say let's compare Dunn with A Rod then he does. would I want him on my team? Ya But he did insult our grounds crew so probably not

 

What did he say?

[VVMattVV]

they both K too much, thus they both suck. right? anyone?

 

If we say let's compare Dunn with A Rod then he does. would I want him on my team? Ya But he did insult our grounds crew so probably not

 

Wow, great analysis. If you compare almost anyone to ARod they look bad, seeing as he's the best player in the game.

[soccer10k]

they both K too much, thus they both suck. right? anyone?

 

It's funny actually how people perceive the two different players -- Howard is awesome, but Dunn is terrible. Personally, I'd take 'em both on my team.

 

I think the difference in perception is largely on the defensive abilities of each. Dunn is one of the worst defenders in baseball, Howard is, at least, perceived to be a pretty good defender.

 

Not that it's right or wrong, but I think that's a big factor.

 

I'm willing to bet that Howard would be a butcher if he played left field like Dunn does and not first base.

[soccer10k]

Another K today puts him at 190 with 9 games to go.

[TruffleShuffle]

Howard is better than Adam Dunn

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Howard is better than Adam Dunn

 

I'm not so sure.

 

2007-

Dunn: 267/387/560 134 OPS+

Howard: 259/331/552 135 OPS+

 

Both are 27, so age isn't a factor.

 

Career

Dunn: 249/381/520 129 OPS+

Howard: 288/393/599 148 OPS+

 

Howard is a bit better over the career, but Dunn has played in more than double the games Howard has.

 

Neither are great defensively. Both would be best served as a DH.

 

I think the two are quite comparable and there's little to substantiate that Howard is that much if any better than Dunn.

[nilodnayr]

I also didn't realize that Howard had 181 K's last year.

 

AND he hit 313...thats amazing.

 

If you look at the peripherals, they are really interesting. 363 BABIP, was really lucky, but if you look at his batted balls, its not SO unjustified. He had a high LD% of 21.9%, so his eBABIP just based on LD% is 339. But also look at his GB% of 41.9%, which is pretty high, and would account for a higher BABIP (more grounders go for hits than FB). BUT then you look at his FBs and even though they are a relatively low % (36.2), his HR/FB is an insane 39.5%.

 

 

Hafner finished second last year at 30.2%. Howard is again first this year with 29.3% (AROD is second with 27.4%). If you look at 2005 players with over 300 ABs, guess who lead the league in HR/FB. Thats right, Ryan Howard (34.9%). Tony Clark and Wily Mo, were the only other players with over 300 ABs who were above 30%.

[haltz]

AND he hit 313...thats amazing.

It's historically ridiculous actually:

 

Yr   Player       SO%(PA)      BA

2006  Howard      26%        .313
1970  Bonds       25%        .302
1998  Sosa        24%        .308
2000  Sosa        24%        .320
1996  Gal'raga    23%        .304
1988  Gal'raga    23%        .302
2002  Soriano     22%        .300
1975  Luzinski    22%        .300
1965  Allen       21%        .302
2001  Sosa        21%        .328
1996  Vaughn      20%        .326

 

B-Ref PI set at 650 PA, 150 K, and a .300 BA.

[hardcorecubfan]

they both K too much, thus they both suck. right? anyone?

 

If we say let's compare Dunn with A Rod then he does. would I want him on my team? Ya But he did insult our grounds crew so probably not

 

Wow, great analysis. If you compare almost anyone to ARod they look bad, seeing as he's the best player in the game.

 

and that was the point, I am not a big believer in Adam Dunn. I believe if we are going to waste 100 million on a person let's waste 130 for ARod and not for a strike-out king like Dunn.

[Derwood]

they both K too much, thus they both suck. right? anyone?

 

If we say let's compare Dunn with A Rod then he does. would I want him on my team? Ya But he did insult our grounds crew so probably not

 

Wow, great analysis. If you compare almost anyone to ARod they look bad, seeing as he's the best player in the game.

 

and that was the point, I am not a big believer in Adam Dunn. I believe if we are going to waste 100 million on a person let's waste 130 for ARod and not for a strike-out king like Dunn.

 

or we could not waste money

[wolf stansson]

they both K too much, thus they both suck. right? anyone?

 

If we say let's compare Dunn with A Rod then he does. would I want him on my team? Ya But he did insult our grounds crew so probably not

 

Wow, great analysis. If you compare almost anyone to ARod they look bad, seeing as he's the best player in the game.

 

and that was the point, I am not a big believer in Adam Dunn. I believe if we are going to waste 100 million on a person let's waste 130 for ARod and not for a strike-out king like Dunn.

 

or we could not waste money

Arod's going for a bit more than 130.

[hardcorecubfan]

they both K too much, thus they both suck. right? anyone?

 

If we say let's compare Dunn with A Rod then he does. would I want him on my team? Ya But he did insult our grounds crew so probably not

 

Wow, great analysis. If you compare almost anyone to ARod they look bad, seeing as he's the best player in the game.

 

and that was the point, I am not a big believer in Adam Dunn. I believe if we are going to waste 100 million on a person let's waste 130 for ARod and not for a strike-out king like Dunn.

 

I am hoping Mark Cuban does waste money for him. It isn't my money

 

or we could not waste money

[TruffleShuffle]

Howard is better than Adam Dunn

 

I'm not so sure.

 

2007-

Dunn: 267/387/560 134 OPS+

Howard: 259/331/552 135 OPS+

 

Both are 27, so age isn't a factor.

 

Career

Dunn: 249/381/520 129 OPS+

Howard: 288/393/599 148 OPS+

 

Howard is a bit better over the career, but Dunn has played in more than double the games Howard has.

 

Neither are great defensively. Both would be best served as a DH.

 

I think the two are quite comparable and there's little to substantiate that Howard is that much if any better than Dunn.

 

They're about even in VORP this year, but Howard has been banged up. Last year Howard had an 81.5 VORP, while Dunn's was 23.5. Howard's career EqA is .324, compared to .302 for Dunn. Howard's WARP3 was 9.5 last year and is 9.2 this year; Dunn's numbers were 5.0 and 6.3.

 

Given that Howard's first full season was 2006 and he put up numbers that were far, far better than Adam Dunn in any season, I'd say it's pretty clear that he's the better player.

[Mephistopheles]

howards career numbers arent pulled down by being in the majors when he was 21 like dunns are.

[TruffleShuffle]

howards career numbers arent pulled down by being in the majors when he was 21 like dunns are.

 

note that most of my post discussed the last two years, and i'm pretty sure that adam dunn's numbers were not being "pulled down" at age 26/27.

[Mephistopheles]

no but ryan howards one great flukish season is bringing his average up at a disproportionate rate because of the lack of three or four years earlier in his career. If you have five numbers and add a sixth its going to change the average a lot less than if you have two numbers and add a third. there's little reason to believe that howards a better hitter. it's pretty much a toss-up in either way right now.

 

ill take dunn because hes less likely to get in trouble with the law. call it racist but its true.