2007 Cubs Minor League Wrap-Up

[CUBZ99]

colvin will never be anything better than a .275 eqa CO with average defense. sometimes he will be stuck in cf where his defense is well below average. he will be alright against righties but will be thoroughly manhandled by southpaws.

 

in otherwords. he's a white jacque jones at best.

 

:lol: :lol:

 

Thank you Nostradamus.

[E.J.]

colvin will never be anything better than a .275 eqa CO with average defense. sometimes he will be stuck in cf where his defense is well below average. he will be alright against righties but will be thoroughly manhandled by southpaws.

 

in otherwords. he's a white jacque jones at best.

 

How can you say that when everyone who has seen him in CF this year describes his defense as well above average?

 

99% of people who see Jeter play SS say he's great defensively.

 

Jeter's a gold-glover. He's an awesome SS.

[CubColtPacer]

colvin will never be anything better than a .275 eqa CO with average defense. sometimes he will be stuck in cf where his defense is well below average. he will be alright against righties but will be thoroughly manhandled by southpaws.

 

in otherwords. he's a white jacque jones at best.

 

How can you say that when everyone who has seen him in CF this year describes his defense as well above average?

 

99% of people who see Jeter play SS say he's great defensively.

 

True, but 1) most of those fans who have seen Jeter are casual fans, while most people who evaluate the minor leagues know much more what to look for. 2) The only evidence of Colvin in CF is late last year and this year, so until we get other evidence the only thing we have is what people say about his defense, and even the ones who were skeptical of his defense in the first place have been pleasantly surprised. They all say that he's not Pie level out there, but he's quite good.

[CubinNY]

colvin will never be anything better than a .275 eqa CO with average defense. sometimes he will be stuck in cf where his defense is well below average. he will be alright against righties but will be thoroughly manhandled by southpaws.

 

in otherwords. he's a white jacque jones at best.

 

How can you say that when everyone who has seen him in CF this year describes his defense as well above average?

 

99% of people who see Jeter play SS say he's great defensively.

 

True, but 1) most of those fans who have seen Jeter are casual fans, while most people who evaluate the minor leagues know much more what to look for. 2) The only evidence of Colvin in CF is late last year and this year, so until we get other evidence the only thing we have is what people say about his defense, and even the ones who were skeptical of his defense in the first place have been pleasantly surprised. They all say that he's not Pie level out there, but he's quite good.

 

I saw Colvin play 4 times in CF this year. He didn't do anything to warrent an "above average" or "below average" when I saw him, although he was taken out in the 6th inning in one game.

 

When I look at Colvin I see a poor man's Louis Gonzalez. He's rail thin with a little pop. I think the biggest factor in Colvin's development will be his discipline (just like that of Gonzo). If he can find a little patience I think he could turn into a petty decent outfielder.

[jersey cubs fan]

colvin will never be anything better than a .275 eqa CO with average defense. sometimes he will be stuck in cf where his defense is well below average. he will be alright against righties but will be thoroughly manhandled by southpaws.

 

in otherwords. he's a white jacque jones at best.

 

How can you say that when everyone who has seen him in CF this year describes his defense as well above average?

 

99% of people who see Jeter play SS say he's great defensively.

 

True, but 1) most of those fans who have seen Jeter are casual fans, while most people who evaluate the minor leagues know much more what to look for. 2) The only evidence of Colvin in CF is late last year and this year, so until we get other evidence the only thing we have is what people say about his defense, and even the ones who were skeptical of his defense in the first place have been pleasantly surprised. They all say that he's not Pie level out there, but he's quite good.

 

 

I'd have to see some evidence of that. I've heard anectodal accounts of Colvin being an acceptable CF, but nothing concrete. And it's not just fans, it's so-called experts who love Jeter. Baseball men who know the game, etc, etc.

[rawaction]

Jeter's an above average defensive SS. I'd say probably top 10 in the league. My guess is he's better than ARod would be if he were there still. The stuff about Arod being the best SS on the Yankees is off-base. Arod was better when he did play SS, but since then he's bulked up and looks like he's lost some range. Jeter has worked hard and become a much better defensive SS.

[rawaction]

Soto:

It goes without say that Soto had an awesome year. Sure he has now repeated AAA 3 times but its not like hes 27 doing this. I thought last year he had a pretty good year at 23YO, this year he added the power. Legit.

 

Colvin:

If it wasnt for his 1st round pick auro i dont think he would be much of a prospect. He's not much of one in my book. As pointed out previously his BB/K ratio is Terrible. Bad BB/K ratios are a red flag, his is the red flag with the black square in the middle. I understand he has the 'tools' and i have yet to see him play but man those tools better start to exhibit themselves very quickly.

 

Donaldson:

Im not sure how much of a prospect this kid is but man he put up some great #s at Boise. Unlike Colvin this kid has great BB/K ratio (37/34) AND hits for average. Alright yes Donaldson is the same age as Colvin and is 21YO in Boise so its not like hes 18/19. His ISOD of .124 is great, but its another to do it with a batting average of .346, thats really awesome. Nice pop in the bat too.

 

Ceda:

Peoria=46IP/14H. What the hell is that?!

66ks too.

 

Gallagher:

Another good year in the minors, especially Iowa. Great HR/IP ratio. Sure he struggled in MLB but after seeing him pitch i like his fastball and really like his tight/hard curve.

 

Donaldson is 21 in short-season ball. Colvin is 21 in AA, 3 levels ahead. Colvin held his own against monumentally better competition. I dont' see how you can say he's a non-prospect but Donaldson is great because of similar numbers (wihtout the walks) at Boise as Colvin.

 

Also, you can't mention Ceda without the walks. If those numbers you listed were the whole story, everyone in baseball would be talking about him.

[Guest]

One name I haven't seen yet is Robert Hernandez, he had a solid season as an 18-year old in the MWL. He's in my top 10 list.

 

I'm with raw on Colvin. Just because he's got poor plate discipline while the Cubs are being overly-aggressive with him doesn't negate his prospect status. And his defense is above average.

[Outshined_One]

Some names from A-ball on down to keep an eye on in terms of under the radar potential...

 

Peoria: P Alessandro Maestri

 

The Italian Stallion! Okay, maybe he needs a new nickname. But still. He finished his last ten games of the season with some nifty numbers in the MWL (13.2 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 20/1 K/BB, 4 SV) and looks like a potential gem as a relief pitcher. I like him a lot, but his success excites me because it shows that you can get quality players out of untapped markets like Europe. I've been driving the "expand baseball scouting beyond its traditional areas" bandwagon for a good amount of time now and I really hope the Cubs can keep it up (as evidenced with the recent acquisition of Dwayne Kemp from the Netherlands).

 

Boise: OF/1B Kyler Burke

 

Shhhhhhhhhhhhhh, don't let the Padres know they've given up two good prospects to the Cubs (Burke and Ceda). After an abysmal year last year and during his time with the Padres, he's come into his own. Despite posting a mediocre .254 BA in Boise (with a .317 BABIP), he posted some very promising IsoD (.086) and IsoP (.192) numbers to go with 10 HRs. While a move to 1B might be in his future due to a glut of OFs in the system, he has a bright future ahead of him. If he repeats this success next season, he could easily become one of the best prospects in this system.

 

Mesa: P Oswaldo Martinez

 

I'm not sure what to expect out of him in the long run, but a 22/2 K/BB in 20 IP from an 18 year old is pretty nifty. I've heard some good things about him from scouts and from some people on this board, which is enough to merit keeping an eye on him next season.

 

The Walking Wounded: Billy Muldowney and Rafael Dolis

 

Along with Jose Ceda, these three seemed to be poised to become a potential three man wrecking crew down in Peoria this season. However, injuries sidelined all three, with only Ceda finishing up the season. All three are thankfully young enough to rebound, but it sucks that their development has been hampered like this.

[rawaction]

One name I haven't seen yet is Robert Hernandez, he had a solid season as an 18-year old in the MWL. He's in my top 10 list.

 

I'm with raw on Colvin. Just because he's got poor plate discipline while the Cubs are being overly-aggressive with him doesn't negate his prospect status. And his defense is above average.

 

I'm a big Hernandez fan. Liked him a lot last year. He's a guy that could be a top prospect by this time next year.

[don_kessinger_was_good]

Ceda is an animal. I love him. When the bandwagon starts, I'm on board. Jose reminds me of Armando Benitez when Armando Benitez was good. If he gets his control even a LITTLE bit better, he'll be in the big league bullpen on opening day 2009. You just don't find intimidating relievers every day.

 

Whoever mentioned Burke, I almost regarded him as someone that really helped himself, but I discounted based on his half-season. Agreed though that the upside is there--and he can always pitch later if the hitting doesn't work out (re: Marmol).

 

Finally, has anyone heard any further hints about Harvey being switched to pitching over the winter to try and salvage something out of his career? It's pretty clear he'll never make the big leagues as a hitter, and I gotta believe the Cubs would like to see some sliver of hope out of their investment in him.

[Guest]

Mesa: P Oswaldo Martinez

 

I'm not sure what to expect out of him in the long run, but a 22/2 K/BB in 20 IP from an 18 year old is pretty nifty. I've heard some good things about him from scouts and from some people on this board, which is enough to merit keeping an eye on him next season.

 

I'm a big fan of Oswaldo too.

 

Ceda is an animal. I love him. When the bandwagon starts, I'm on board. Jose reminds me of Armando Benitez when Armando Benitez was good. If he gets his control even a LITTLE bit better, he'll be in the big league bullpen on opening day 2009. You just don't find intimidating relievers every day.

 

Personally I like the Lee Smith comparisons. :D

 

Finally, has anyone heard any further hints about Harvey being switched to pitching over the winter to try and salvage something out of his career? It's pretty clear he'll never make the big leagues as a hitter, and I gotta believe the Cubs would like to see some sliver of hope out of their investment in him.

 

Well, they did send him to Hawaii as a hitter so he's still a year away from pitching, I'd guess. There is a story on ITI that mentions he might be converting soon but it's premium and I don't have a premium subscription.

 

Oh, and if you guys want another interesting relieving prospect who's a bit further advanced than Ceda or Maestri, try Rocky Roquet (I believe dkwg mentioned him) - mid 90s FB, plus hard slider, passable change. He should be at Iowa next season, will be in the AFL in a few weeks.

Edited September 12, 2007 by CaliforniaRaisin

[wvcbxl]

Peoria: P Alessandro Maestri

 

The Italian Stallion! Okay, maybe he needs a new nickname. But still. He finished his last ten games of the season with some nifty numbers in the MWL (13.2 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 20/1 K/BB, 4 SV) and looks like a potential gem as a relief pitcher. I like him a lot, but his success excites me because it shows that you can get quality players out of untapped markets like Europe. I've been driving the "expand baseball scouting beyond its traditional areas" bandwagon for a good amount of time now and I really hope the Cubs can keep it up (as evidenced with the recent acquisition of Dwayne Kemp from the Netherlands).

 

My man Alessandro.

 

It's a quantum leap to project a succesful relief pitcher from low A ball, but we (and he) can always dream...

[Mephistopheles]

I didn't expect people to like my realist down-to-earth analysis of Tyler Colvin's abilities. In the end that's going to be the most likely scenario, and honestly it's bordering on the optimistic side.

 

Of course I used EqA not BA or HRs. I can do that.

[karenmac]

Roquet is definitely a diamond in the rough. After seeing him earlier this year, it still blows me away that he went undrafted. It's pickups like these that I'm sure Wilken had a hand in and what makes him so valued as a scouting director. I am so glad to see Rocky progressing so well throughout the season.

 

For those of you who are looking for a California spot to vacation, Rocky's folks own a motel in Cayucos, CA - the Seaside

We met Rick when he came to Peoria - a great guy for sure.

[NCCubFan]

Maybe Roquet and Cherry can be in the Cubs' bullpen together some day. They might be the first team to have two Rockys in the pen at the same time. :D

[Guest]

Roquet is definitely a diamond in the rough. After seeing him earlier this year, it still blows me away that he went undrafted. It's pickups like these that I'm sure Wilken had a hand in and what makes him so valued as a scouting director. I am so glad to see Rocky progressing so well throughout the season.

 

For those of you who are looking for a California spot to vacation, Rocky's folks own a motel in Cayucos, CA - the Seaside

We met Rick when he came to Peoria - a great guy for sure.

 

He signed before the draft because he was a fifth year senior, he most certainly would have been drafted if he hadn't signed with a team. I believe the reason he went undrafted before was because he shifted to pitching very late.

[Mephistopheles]

im pretty sure the rockies have had at least two rockies in their pen for 14 years.

[don_kessinger_was_good]

Maybe Roquet and Cherry can be in the Cubs' bullpen together some day. They might be the first team to have two Rockys in the pen at the same time. :D

 

That would be tough, since Cherry is now with Baltimore (re: Trachsel trade).

 

I think it is safe to presume that the Cubs felt Roquet made Cherry expendable--same kind of pitchers, at similar levels of the organization, but Roquet is younger and doesn't have the injury history that Cherry has had. Hard to see Roquet with an upside beyond a Michael Wuertz-type role at best, but that has some modest degree of value to the organization (or in trade).

 

This gets me on a related but different topic that I would like to expand on at some point. For all the grief we give the Cubs organization, and for all the (at times) over-emotional attachment many put on our minor leaguers, the fact is the Cubs have been SUPERB judges of their own organizational talent throughout this decade. I made a list, I'll post it some other time, but it's amazing just how FEW mistakes the Cubs have made in this area.

 

Point being, at this stage if the Cubs feel someone like a Rocky Cherry or Scott Moore is expendable, I tend to give the brass the benefit of the doubt.

[the splendid splinter]

Roquet is definitely a diamond in the rough. After seeing him earlier this year, it still blows me away that he went undrafted. It's pickups like these that I'm sure Wilken had a hand in and what makes him so valued as a scouting director. I am so glad to see Rocky progressing so well throughout the season.

 

For those of you who are looking for a California spot to vacation, Rocky's folks own a motel in Cayucos, CA - the Seaside

We met Rick when he came to Peoria - a great guy for sure.

 

He signed before the draft because he was a fifth year senior, he most certainly would have been drafted if he hadn't signed with a team. I believe the reason he went undrafted before was because he shifted to pitching very late.

Very well put raisin! Read in an article that Wilken viewed Roquet as an extra pick because the Cubs didnt have picks in rounds 2 thru 4. So if you put Colvin, Sammy, Lansford and Roquet together, its not too bad considering they didnt have those picks.

[snoodmonger]

I also want to add my thanks to all you for making this forum so informative. I rarely post in it, as I don't know much about the players and thus have little right to evaluate them. but I promise, I read this forum every day, and I always learn something. Keep up the good work.

[Guest]

Maybe Roquet and Cherry can be in the Cubs' bullpen together some day. They might be the first team to have two Rockys in the pen at the same time. :D

 

That would be tough, since Cherry is now with Baltimore (re: Trachsel trade).

 

I think it is safe to presume that the Cubs felt Roquet made Cherry expendable--same kind of pitchers, at similar levels of the organization, but Roquet is younger and doesn't have the injury history that Cherry has had. Hard to see Roquet with an upside beyond a Michael Wuertz-type role at best, but that has some modest degree of value to the organization (or in trade).

 

This gets me on a related but different topic that I would like to expand on at some point. For all the grief we give the Cubs organization, and for all the (at times) over-emotional attachment many put on our minor leaguers, the fact is the Cubs have been SUPERB judges of their own organizational talent throughout this decade. I made a list, I'll post it some other time, but it's amazing just how FEW mistakes the Cubs have made in this area.

 

Point being, at this stage if the Cubs feel someone like a Rocky Cherry or Scott Moore is expendable, I tend to give the brass the benefit of the doubt.

 

In regards to your first part, I think Roquet has a higher ceiling than Wuertz so I think he could be more of a set-up 8th inning guy (unless that's what you view Wuertz's upside). He has a better, harder FB than Wuertz and a similarly good slider (though they both give up too many HRs for my liking).

[NCCubFan]

Maybe Roquet and Cherry can be in the Cubs' bullpen together some day. They might be the first team to have two Rockys in the pen at the same time. :D

 

That would be tough, since Cherry is now with Baltimore (re: Trachsel trade).

D'oh. :oops:

 

The Cubs do have a habit of reacquiring players, though, so he could return.

[don_kessinger_was_good]

Maybe Roquet and Cherry can be in the Cubs' bullpen together some day. They might be the first team to have two Rockys in the pen at the same time. :D

 

That would be tough, since Cherry is now with Baltimore (re: Trachsel trade).

 

I think it is safe to presume that the Cubs felt Roquet made Cherry expendable--same kind of pitchers, at similar levels of the organization, but Roquet is younger and doesn't have the injury history that Cherry has had. Hard to see Roquet with an upside beyond a Michael Wuertz-type role at best, but that has some modest degree of value to the organization (or in trade).

 

This gets me on a related but different topic that I would like to expand on at some point. For all the grief we give the Cubs organization, and for all the (at times) over-emotional attachment many put on our minor leaguers, the fact is the Cubs have been SUPERB judges of their own organizational talent throughout this decade. I made a list, I'll post it some other time, but it's amazing just how FEW mistakes the Cubs have made in this area.

 

Point being, at this stage if the Cubs feel someone like a Rocky Cherry or Scott Moore is expendable, I tend to give the brass the benefit of the doubt.

 

In regards to your first part, I think Roquet has a higher ceiling than Wuertz so I think he could be more of a set-up 8th inning guy (unless that's what you view Wuertz's upside). He has a better, harder FB than Wuertz and a similarly good slider (though they both give up too many HRs for my liking).

 

IMO, Wuertz has better stuff than Dempster and if given the chance, he could at least be a quality pre-setup (7th inning) man. Cubs for some reason have never shown a lot of faith in him. It hurts his effectiveness, because like Howry, Wuertz seems to be a guy that pitches better when he pitches often.

 

I would love to see the Cubs trade Dempster in the offseason, give the closer's spot to Marmol, and then use Wuertz as the 7th inning guy, but I don't expect it to happen. Especially since I think there is zero chance they bring Kerry Wood back, and the thinking will be that they need to keep Dempster and Wuertz in their current roles in the interest of "bullpen depth." Guh.

[Guest]

In that case, I agree with you on Wuertz's ability (and on trading Dempster - though I'd plug Howry in as closer and leave Marmol as a 6th - 8th inning fireman but that's a different thread). I do think Roquet has a higher ceiling than Wuertz.