on Geo Soto

[jjgman21]

Geo and his possible contributions to the Cubs has been touched on in several threads, so I thought I would start this thread to focus on the discussions surrounding the potential for Soto to help both this year and in the future.

 

there is no doubt the raw numbers of Soto are impressive, yet there have been lots of out of hand dismissals to whether Soto could contribute at an acceptable level or be a long term solution. they generally fall into three arguments: see Ronnie Cedeno; the PCL is very hitter friendly this year; the projections all show he wouldn't be good. now I don't know whether Soto will be able to hit at an acceptable level, but these three arguments are lacking in merit at this point.

 

Ronnie Cedeno - so bloody what. they are two different players. just because one appears to be a AAAA player doesn't mean the other is. we talk all the time on here about how we wish the Cubs would try to find the unteachable skill (plate discipline) and hope the teachable skill (power) develops, instead of the other way around. one thing Soto has always had was place discipline, despite always being young for his level (until this year). now his age has caught up with his league, and he has both.

 

furthermore, Ronnie's stats in Iowa this year are in large part supported by a freakish hot streak of about 5 weeks. this isn't the case with Soto who has produced in every month of the year. whether it will translate to the next level remains to be seen because ie. Soto appears to have been somewhat lucky on BABIP, but his minor league history indicates Ronnie Cedeno's experience is not an appropriate comparison for predicting what Soto will do.

 

The PCL is hitter friendly - so bloody what. his OPS is about 275 points higher than league average right now. certainly this isn't exclusively due to the hitter friendly nature of the PCL. furthermore, it's not like he's playing in Colorado Springs or Albequerque to help his stats. he still plays at Iowa which is nowhere near as friendly as alot of other parks. in addition, the hitter friendliness is partly attributable to the Cubs, whose ERA is a full run above what it was last year.

 

again, the BABIP effect is a bit of a concern in inflating his stats, but luck most likely is not the primary factor in the increase in numbers, especially in light of the fact that he's hit so many HRs.

 

Projections - I don't know how these projections are calculated, but I question whether they account for the 'light coming on' effect of a minor league batter. Geo was very good in the second half last year, sporting an 820/860 OPS in July/Aug. if the projections relied on overall numbers, they are missing the big picture.

 

further, look at a player like Saltalamacchia. the overwhelming concensus is that he is going to be an awesome hitter in the major leagues. compare both players when they were 21. both were at the same level, and Soto outproduced Salty. while Salty's A+ stats sure were tasty, he followed it up with a year of flopping, and has done little in the bigs this year. Soto's path was different from his AA year on out, but as his playing time became more consistent, his production has gotten better year after year. so if Salty is so great based on a great year at A+, why isn't Soto just as great based on his eye popping year at AAA?

 

now I could understand if there were no explanation for why Soto's numbers shot up other than BABIP and the increase in the league's overall production, but there is a fabulous indicator that a light bulb did in fact go on in Soto's development. that indicator is gb/ld/fb.

 

2005 - 56/14/30

2006 - 51/18/31

2007 - 43/21/36

 

clearly this guy has made the adjustment that we all wish Matt Murton would make. clearly he's hitting the ball differently now than at the end of 2005 and beginning of 2006.

 

Finally, we really should stop using beginning of the year projections for what Soto will do since there is up to date information available, and if I am not mistaken, current mle indicates Soto would blow those pre-season projections out of the water.

 

 

I don't know whether Soto is a short or long term solution at catcher for the Chicago Cubs, but you're gonna have to come a helluva lot stronger than these three flimsy arguments to convince me that he won't.

[CoolHandLuke]

There is really only one way to know how he will perform. It's a shame we are in the middle of a pennant race and have the catching wizard, Jason Kendall, behind the plate.

[badger1679666666]

There is really only one way to know how he will perform. It's a shame we are in the middle of a pennant race and have the catching wizard, Jason Kendall, behind the plate.

 

Kendall, I can handle. It's a shame that Koyie Hill is on this roster.

[brinoch]

I've been extremely frustrated with Kendall's defense behind the plate. He's let a lot of balls get past him that were stoppable, and his "throws" to second are atrocious.

[NewUserName]

I dont think he is a future HOFer or anything but it is obvious that he couldnt do worse than what the Cubs are sending out there now. Sadly the Cubs have proven that they will not give position players from there organization a decent shot and will look for any over 30 name that they can come up with to be "insurance" for these guys.

 

Soto is already starting C on most teams in this league.

[OleMissCub]

Good post jjgman.

 

Soto should be the backup catcher, not Koyie Hill. At first I was reluctant to want to cut Koyie Hill because he had been catching Z during his run, so I figured Z's recent run might have to do with Hill's pitch calling, but Kendall has caught Z recently and Z is still just as good.

[inari]

I dont think he is a future HOFer or anything but it is obvious that he couldnt do worse than what the Cubs are sending out there now. Sadly the Cubs have proven that they will not give position players from there organization a decent shot and will look for any over 30 name that they can come up with to be "insurance" for these guys.

 

Soto is already starting C on most teams in this league.

 

Really?

 

...really?

[FergieJ31]

I've been extremely frustrated with Kendall's defense behind the plate. He's let a lot of balls get past him that were stoppable, and his "throws" to second are atrocious.

 

Seconded. His defense has been a big disappointment. While it's true that Cub pitchers often don't do a good job holding runners on first, Kendall's noodle arm only compounds the problem.

[inari]

I've been extremely frustrated with Kendall's defense behind the plate. He's let a lot of balls get past him that were stoppable, and his "throws" to second are atrocious.

 

Seconded. His defense has been a big disappointment. While it's true that Cub pitchers often don't do a good job holding runners on first, Kendall's noodle arm only compounds the problem.

 

The fact that his arm is weak isn't the worst part, it's that it's not accurate at all. More often than not, the throw is on the shortstop side of second.

[FergieJ31]

Geo and his possible contributions to the Cubs has been touched on in several threads, so I thought I would start this thread to focus on the discussions surrounding the potential for Soto to help both this year and in the future.

....

 

Very nice post jjgman. I really wish Soto had been given more of a shot. The very small sample we saw from him wasn't bad at all - Soto has a cannon for an arm and sure looked like he had a clue at the plate.

[NewUserName]

I dont think he is a future HOFer or anything but it is obvious that he couldnt do worse than what the Cubs are sending out there now. Sadly the Cubs have proven that they will not give position players from there organization a decent shot and will look for any over 30 name that they can come up with to be "insurance" for these guys.

 

Soto is already starting C on most teams in this league.

 

Really?

 

...really?

 

 

What I mean is if most teams had the Catching situation that the Cubs had they would have given Soto a shot by now. I am not saying Soto is one of the better Catchers in the league now.

 

As for the first part, I think this is pretty obvious.

[inari]

I dont think he is a future HOFer or anything but it is obvious that he couldnt do worse than what the Cubs are sending out there now. Sadly the Cubs have proven that they will not give position players from there organization a decent shot and will look for any over 30 name that they can come up with to be "insurance" for these guys.

 

Soto is already starting C on most teams in this league.

 

Really?

 

...really?

 

 

What I mean is if most teams had the Catching situation that the Cubs had they would have given Soto a shot by now. I am not saying Soto is one of the better Catchers in the league now.

 

As for the first part, I think this is pretty obvious.

 

In that case, you're likely correct.

[Cubfan_N_nebraska]

There is really only one way to know how he will perform. It's a shame we are in the middle of a pennant race and have the catching wizard, Jason Kendall, behind the plate.

 

Kendall, I can handle. It's a shame that Koyie Hill is on this roster.

 

That is an understatement!!!!!!!!!!!

[TheDude]

I've been extremely frustrated with Kendall's defense behind the plate. He's let a lot of balls get past him that were stoppable, and his "throws" to second are atrocious.

I'm not going to claim that Kendall has a gun, but he has zero passballs as a Cub this year (so it's unclear why you think 'a lot balls' got by him), and a good number of the stolen bases against the Cubs the past week have been on the pitcher. Many didn't even warrant a throw because of the pitcher.

[jersey cubs fan]

I'm not going to claim that Kendall has a gun, but he has zero passballs as a Cub this year

 

Could this be similar to the situation where a fielder with no range maintains a high fielding percentage by getting to the easy ones? I really don't know the numbers, but I feel like I've seen a lot of wild pitches with Kendall back there, as his old broken down body isn't able to stop anything but the simplest ball in the dirt. Obviously, that's based on anectodal evidence and my own flawed eyes, but it could be the case here.

[TruffleShuffle]

hendry and lou should be asked about soto every day by someone in the media

[Keener98]

I've been extremely frustrated with Kendall's defense behind the plate. He's let a lot of balls get past him that were stoppable, and his "throws" to second are atrocious.

I'm not going to claim that Kendall has a gun, but he has zero passballs as a Cub this year (so it's unclear why you think 'a lot balls' got by him), and a good number of the stolen bases against the Cubs the past week have been on the pitcher. Many didn't even warrant a throw because he knows he has no chance in hell at throwing anybody out, so he might as well save his energy..

 

fixed

[sweetpeteman]

I've been extremely frustrated with Kendall's defense behind the plate. He's let a lot of balls get past him that were stoppable, and his "throws" to second are atrocious.

I'm not going to claim that Kendall has a gun, but he has zero passballs as a Cub this year (so it's unclear why you think 'a lot balls' got by him), and a good number of the stolen bases against the Cubs the past week have been on the pitcher. Many didn't even warrant a throw because of the pitcher.

 

 

 

They are referring, I believe, to that he has muffed throws from the outfield that could have gotten people.

[badger1679666666]

There is really only one way to know how he will perform. It's a shame we are in the middle of a pennant race and have the catching wizard, Jason Kendall, behind the plate.

 

Kendall, I can handle. It's a shame that Koyie Hill is on this roster.

 

That is an understatement!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Well being that I'm fed up with the hyperbole and ridiculous overreactions on this board, I try to at least not participate in em.

[CyHawk_Cub]

hendry and lou should be asked about soto every day by someone in the media

 

Bruce, can we get an "Amen"? :D

[dew1679666265]

I dont think he is a future HOFer or anything but it is obvious that he couldnt do worse than what the Cubs are sending out there now. Sadly the Cubs have proven that they will not give position players from there organization a decent shot and will look for any over 30 name that they can come up with to be "insurance" for these guys.

 

Soto is already starting C on most teams in this league.

 

Really?

 

...really?

 

 

What I mean is if most teams had the Catching situation that the Cubs had they would have given Soto a shot by now. I am not saying Soto is one of the better Catchers in the league now.

 

As for the first part, I think this is pretty obvious.

 

Aren't Ryan Theriot and Mike Fontenot position players from our system and under 30 years old?

 

Sure, I'd like to see Soto up in place of K. Hill and would've been perfectly fine with sticking with Pie earlier this year, but to say we haven't had any position players from our system get a chance this year is wrong.

 

And before you say Fontenot is not from our system - he was a throw-in in the Sammy deal and was a nothing prospect and our system developed him into legit major league material. Therefore I think he counts as a Cub prospect.

[Wilson A2000]

Ask Koyie Hill what the difference is between AAA pitching (.325 average) and big league pitching (.173 or so). Why would Soto be different?

[dew1679666265]

Geo and his possible contributions to the Cubs has been touched on in several threads, so I thought I would start this thread to focus on the discussions surrounding the potential for Soto to help both this year and in the future.

 

there is no doubt the raw numbers of Soto are impressive, yet there have been lots of out of hand dismissals to whether Soto could contribute at an acceptable level or be a long term solution. they generally fall into three arguments: see Ronnie Cedeno; the PCL is very hitter friendly this year; the projections all show he wouldn't be good. now I don't know whether Soto will be able to hit at an acceptable level, but these three arguments are lacking in merit at this point.

 

For me, it's not out of hand dismissals of his ability to help us this year or next. I fully admit he could come to the majors and hit as well as he currently is. Problem is, there's enough evidence against him to make me very concerned.

 

I bring the Ronny Cedeno case up only because he is another player who's never been well known for his bat either in the minors or majors and is all of a sudden hitting well in Iowa. Sure, Soto is a different player and could very well hit well, but there are enough similarities to make me concerned.

 

The fact that everyone is hitting well in the PCL makes me think the pitching is a little (or a lot) down this year - not so much park factors. It may just be coincedence that Soto's breakout year is coming when many other players are hitting above their averages, but the correlation concerns me quite a bit.

 

Ultimately, I understand Soto could come up and provide offensive help. Problem is, there are enough concerns surrounding the incredible year he's having to make me think this is more of an anomaly than a trend. The likelihood is that he'll regress from his minor league numbers when he reaches the majors (for a while at least).

 

The question is, will he regress from his career averages, his end to last season, or this year's numbers? If it's from his career averages, he's no better (if not worse than) Kendall. If it's from his end to last year, he's probably as good or slightly better than Kendall. If it's from this year's numbers, we've got a dang good catcher.

 

I would feel much better, instead of calling him up and handing him the starting job, bring him up now to replace K. Hill and give him those starts. If he hits well, give him more and more playing time. If he doesn't hit, we've got a nice defensive catcher playing behind and learning from Kendall.

[Magnetic Curses]

i doubt soto gets a chance this year, but there's no reason he shouldn't be the opening day catcher in 08.

[OleMissCub]

Ask Koyie Hill what the difference is between AAA pitching (.325 average) and big league pitching (.173 or so). Why would Soto be different?

 

So a guy has to hit .425 at AAA to be a .273 hitter at the MLB level?