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Posted
There's some legit concern there w/Marquis, (although I thought he pitched well enough vs. Philly to not merit much criticism for that one start) the command of his sinker has not been as good as it was earlier in the season. If his sinker remains belt high like it has for several of his last starts, he'll be putting some poor numbers. I think there's some extra work for Rothschild w/Marquis to make sure he doesn't fall into the same traps he did last year.
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Posted

DKWG is exactly right. And he understated it quite a bit actually.

 

In terms of ERA, Jason Marquis is the best 5th starter in baseball. And it's not even close really. It seems like people always want Marquis to be lights out every start, which is totally reasonable -- I want the same thing. But it's not reasonable to claim that he sucks and blah blah blah because he isn't great every time. Again, Marquis is better than every single team's 5th starter, and quite a bit of team's 4th starters too.

Posted
DKWG is exactly right. And he understated it quite a bit actually.

 

In terms of ERA, Jason Marquis is the best 5th starter in baseball. And it's not even close really. It seems like people always want Marquis to be lights out every start, which is totally reasonable -- I want the same thing. But it's not reasonable to claim that he sucks and blah blah blah because he isn't great every time. Again, Marquis is better than every single team's 5th starter, and quite a bit of team's 4th starters too.

 

Not to mention that the numbered starter thing is stupid anyway. You can win the World Series with 2 good pitchers.

Posted
DKWG is exactly right. And he understated it quite a bit actually.

 

In terms of ERA, Jason Marquis is the best 5th starter in baseball. And it's not even close really. It seems like people always want Marquis to be lights out every start, which is totally reasonable -- I want the same thing. But it's not reasonable to claim that he sucks and blah blah blah because he isn't great every time. Again, Marquis is better than every single team's 5th starter, and quite a bit of team's 4th starters too.

 

Jason Marquis stats are skewed by his ridiculous start to the season. Jason was awesome his first month to month in a half of the season, but since then he has came back to earth, and remembered he is Jason Marquis. Since the All Star Break(4 starts) Jason has a 6.75 ERA and a 1.59 Whip, thats not good. He has gotten progressively worse in every month of the season April 2.35 ERA 1.17 WHip May 3.38 ERA 1.05 Whip June 5.09 ERA 1.70 Whip and July 6.29 ERA 1.51 Whip.

 

Now take into consideration that over the course of Marquis career he has historically been terrible in the 2nd half every year, there is definatly cause for concern. Marquis is much more likely to continue on his terrible performances, and there is a very good reason for concern regarding him. At this piont, Gallagher is a much better bet to give you better pitching than Marquis is, and the sad thing is we have Marquis for another 2 years and 14 million dollars

Posted

Yeah, it's not like Marquis has been on and off all year, it's been a pretty steady trend downward.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/105_P_daily_full_0_20070803.png

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/105_P_daily_full_6_20070803.png

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/105_P_daily_full_5_20070803.png

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/105_P_daily_full_4_20070803.png

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Posted
And that last graph shows pretty clearly what the underlying issue is...
Posted
ARRRGH!! The whole "Marshall is inconsistent" movement is driving me absolutely insane. He's not inconsistent!!! He's had 2-3 bad outings all season long! And one of those, this last one, was because he had a freaking scratched cornea! I keep using exclamation points because so many people don't want to seem to pay attention.

 

With the exception of the last time through the rotation, starting pitching HAS NOT be a problem with the Cubs.

 

I know what you are saying Banedon. No matter how many times I post his earned runs allowed broken down by games, people still keep saying it, but these same people are completely ignoring Marquis inconsistency. Its rather "inconsistent" wouldnt you say?

 

Count me in on that as well.

Posted
** Call up Pie, send down Cedeno -- Pie is tearing it up in AAA, and we don't really need any more middle infield depth. I think the '07 Cubs are at their best when he is in the lineup, and he's got to adjust to major league pitching at some point.

 

.360/.424/.543 Cedeno in AAA

.361/.403/.565 Pie in AAA

 

Cedeno was playing better than Pie in AAA and just got called up. Calling Pie up would make sense, but not for Cedeno. They're better off dumping Fontenot or Pagan if that happened. Those two are worthless.

 

Yeah Fontenot and his 111 OPS+ and .280 EqA are worthless, but sure let's keep Cedeno, a guy who had a .210 EqA last season. I sure am glad you're not running the Cubs.

Posted
** Call up Pie, send down Cedeno -- Pie is tearing it up in AAA, and we don't really need any more middle infield depth. I think the '07 Cubs are at their best when he is in the lineup, and he's got to adjust to major league pitching at some point.

 

.360/.424/.543 Cedeno in AAA

.361/.403/.565 Pie in AAA

 

Cedeno was playing better than Pie in AAA and just got called up. Calling Pie up would make sense, but not for Cedeno. They're better off dumping Fontenot or Pagan if that happened. Those two are worthless.

 

Yeah Fontenot and his 111 OPS+ and .280 EqA are worthless, but sure let's keep Cedeno, a guy who had a .210 EqA last season. I sure am glad you're not running the Cubs.

 

After his ridiculous start, Fontenot has cooled off considerably. It wasn't really unexpected either. His stats were entirely driven by an incredible batting average which was in turn the result of what proved to be an unsustainable BABIP. Do his minor league numbers suggest that he projects as anything more than a decent back up infielder?

Posted
DKWG is exactly right. And he understated it quite a bit actually.

 

In terms of ERA, Jason Marquis is the best 5th starter in baseball. And it's not even close really. It seems like people always want Marquis to be lights out every start, which is totally reasonable -- I want the same thing. But it's not reasonable to claim that he sucks and blah blah blah because he isn't great every time. Again, Marquis is better than every single team's 5th starter, and quite a bit of team's 4th starters too.

 

Jason Marquis stats are skewed by his ridiculous start to the season. Jason was awesome his first month to month in a half of the season, but since then he has came back to earth, and remembered he is Jason Marquis. Since the All Star Break(4 starts) Jason has a 6.75 ERA and a 1.59 Whip, thats not good. He has gotten progressively worse in every month of the season April 2.35 ERA 1.17 WHip May 3.38 ERA 1.05 Whip June 5.09 ERA 1.70 Whip and July 6.29 ERA 1.51 Whip.

 

Now take into consideration that over the course of Marquis career he has historically been terrible in the 2nd half every year, there is definatly cause for concern. Marquis is much more likely to continue on his terrible performances, and there is a very good reason for concern regarding him. At this piont, Gallagher is a much better bet to give you better pitching than Marquis is, and the sad thing is we have Marquis for another 2 years and 14 million dollars

Yeah, that's why it's called an earned run average. Every pitcher goes through peaks and valleys, we're just lucky that Jason had such a great peak. I'm guessing not many (if any) of the other number 5 starters in baseball had that great of a peak.

 

His contract is awful, but that's not on him. As the 5th starter on this team, he's doing his job better than every single other pitcher that has that role for other teams.

 

It's pretty ignorant for people to slam him cause he isn't one of the top pitchers in the league.

Posted
Yeah, that's why it's called an earned run average. Every pitcher goes through peaks and valleys, we're just lucky that Jason had such a great peak. I'm guessing not many (if any) of the other number 5 starters in baseball had that great of a peak.

 

Again, it hasn't been good-bad-good-bad. He started hot and then has nosedived.

Posted
Yeah, that's why it's called an earned run average. Every pitcher goes through peaks and valleys, we're just lucky that Jason had such a great peak. I'm guessing not many (if any) of the other number 5 starters in baseball had that great of a peak.

 

Again, it hasn't been good-bad-good-bad. He started hot and then has nosedived.

If you take a look at his game log, you'll see that that's simply not true. In fact, 3 out of his last 6 starts have been quality ones.

Posted
Yeah, that's why it's called an earned run average. Every pitcher goes through peaks and valleys, we're just lucky that Jason had such a great peak. I'm guessing not many (if any) of the other number 5 starters in baseball had that great of a peak.

 

Again, it hasn't been good-bad-good-bad. He started hot and then has nosedived.

If you take a look at his game log, you'll see that that's simply not true. In fact, 3 out of his last 6 starts have been quality ones.

 

Well yeah, you can't be Zambrano and get consistently better or worse every start for several months. Look at the graphs above, there's a very clear trend.

Posted
After his ridiculous start, Fontenot has cooled off considerably. It wasn't really unexpected either. His stats were entirely driven by an incredible batting average which was in turn the result of what proved to be an unsustainable BABIP. Do his minor league numbers suggest that he projects as anything more than a decent back up infielder?

 

Well given that he has a career .366 OBP and .804 OPS in the minors, I'd say yes, the do suggest that he projects as something more than a "decent back up infielder." Meanwhile Ronny's career numbers are considerably worse - not necessarily a fair comparison because Cedeno started out in the minors when he was 18 and has always been young for his level, but the fact remains that Fontenot exhibits better patience, and his ability to not swing at everything means he hasn't been exploited at the big league level like Ronny has.

Posted (edited)
After his ridiculous start, Fontenot has cooled off considerably. It wasn't really unexpected either. His stats were entirely driven by an incredible batting average which was in turn the result of what proved to be an unsustainable BABIP. Do his minor league numbers suggest that he projects as anything more than a decent back up infielder?

 

Well given that he has a career .366 OBP and .804 OPS in the minors, I'd say yes, the do suggest that he projects as something more than a "decent back up infielder." Meanwhile Ronny's career numbers are considerably worse - not necessarily a fair comparison because Cedeno started out in the minors when he was 18 and has always been young for his level, but the fact remains that Fontenot exhibits better patience, and his ability to not swing at everything means he hasn't been exploited at the big league level like Ronny has.

 

Do you think that his solid minor league stats have something to do with the fact that he repeated AAA twice and was old for his level by a couple years by the end of it? I'm not saying Fontenot's bad, and I wouldn't want to release him, but I don't think that he is cut out to be an everyday second baseman.

Edited by Sarcastic
Posted
After his ridiculous start, Fontenot has cooled off considerably. It wasn't really unexpected either. His stats were entirely driven by an incredible batting average which was in turn the result of what proved to be an unsustainable BABIP. Do his minor league numbers suggest that he projects as anything more than a decent back up infielder?

 

Well given that he has a career .366 OBP and .804 OPS in the minors, I'd say yes, the do suggest that he projects as something more than a "decent back up infielder." Meanwhile Ronny's career numbers are considerably worse - not necessarily a fair comparison because Cedeno started out in the minors when he was 18 and has always been young for his level, but the fact remains that Fontenot exhibits better patience, and his ability to not swing at everything means he hasn't been exploited at the big league level like Ronny has.

 

Don't you have to drop the numbers a bit if you're going to try to project what a player can do at the major league level from what he did in the minors...i.e. Fontenot isn't going to project to have a .366 OBP at the ML level.

Posted
Don't you have to drop the numbers a bit if you're going to try to project what a player can do at the major league level from what he did in the minors...i.e. Fontenot isn't going to project to have a .366 OBP at the ML level.

 

2007: .260 .336 .400

2008 (age 28) .271 .351 .425

2009 (age 29) .267 .342 .416

2010 (age 30) .264 .346 .406

2011 (age 31) .266 .342 .410

 

 

Great for a second baseman? Not at all. But adequate? Sure. And those are certainly better than your garden-variety backup middle infielder.

Posted
After his ridiculous start, Fontenot has cooled off considerably. It wasn't really unexpected either. His stats were entirely driven by an incredible batting average which was in turn the result of what proved to be an unsustainable BABIP. Do his minor league numbers suggest that he projects as anything more than a decent back up infielder?

 

Well given that he has a career .366 OBP and .804 OPS in the minors, I'd say yes, the do suggest that he projects as something more than a "decent back up infielder." Meanwhile Ronny's career numbers are considerably worse - not necessarily a fair comparison because Cedeno started out in the minors when he was 18 and has always been young for his level, but the fact remains that Fontenot exhibits better patience, and his ability to not swing at everything means he hasn't been exploited at the big league level like Ronny has.

 

Do you think that his solid minor league stats have something to do with the fact that he repeated AAA twice and was old for his level by a couple years by the end of it? I'm not saying Fontenot's bad, and I wouldn't want to release him, but I don't think that he is cut out to be an everyday second baseman.

 

There's no such thing as being "old for his level" at AAA. A bunch of guys playing there are in their 30s. And yes, he probably was having as much success as he had at Iowa this year because he was there for a third year in a row, but his first year at Iowa he had a line of .272/.377/.430. I don't know that he projects as an above-average second baseman, but he could be adequate, or at least a versatile backup. Meanwhile I have no confidence that Ronny Cedeno can be a decent starting shortstop.

Posted
DKWG is exactly right. And he understated it quite a bit actually.

 

In terms of ERA, Jason Marquis is the best 5th starter in baseball. And it's not even close really. It seems like people always want Marquis to be lights out every start, which is totally reasonable -- I want the same thing. But it's not reasonable to claim that he sucks and blah blah blah because he isn't great every time. Again, Marquis is better than every single team's 5th starter, and quite a bit of team's 4th starters too.

 

Jason Marquis stats are skewed by his ridiculous start to the season. Jason was awesome his first month to month in a half of the season, but since then he has came back to earth, and remembered he is Jason Marquis. Since the All Star Break(4 starts) Jason has a 6.75 ERA and a 1.59 Whip, thats not good. He has gotten progressively worse in every month of the season April 2.35 ERA 1.17 WHip May 3.38 ERA 1.05 Whip June 5.09 ERA 1.70 Whip and July 6.29 ERA 1.51 Whip.

 

Now take into consideration that over the course of Marquis career he has historically been terrible in the 2nd half every year, there is definatly cause for concern. Marquis is much more likely to continue on his terrible performances, and there is a very good reason for concern regarding him. At this piont, Gallagher is a much better bet to give you better pitching than Marquis is, and the sad thing is we have Marquis for another 2 years and 14 million dollars

Yeah, that's why it's called an earned run average. Every pitcher goes through peaks and valleys, we're just lucky that Jason had such a great peak. I'm guessing not many (if any) of the other number 5 starters in baseball had that great of a peak.

 

His contract is awful, but that's not on him. As the 5th starter on this team, he's doing his job better than every single other pitcher that has that role for other teams.

 

It's pretty ignorant for people to slam him cause he isn't one of the top pitchers in the league.

 

Hes not the 5th starter on this team, hes the #3. 4 runs in 5 innings tonight, once again a crap performance. The guy sucks in the 2nd half throughout his career and its not changing this year. He continues to tax our bullpen every outing, since he cant even make it past 6 innings. Hes a joke, and his contract that our dumbass GM gave him is even more of a joke.

Posted
DKWG is exactly right. And he understated it quite a bit actually.

 

In terms of ERA, Jason Marquis is the best 5th starter in baseball. And it's not even close really. It seems like people always want Marquis to be lights out every start, which is totally reasonable -- I want the same thing. But it's not reasonable to claim that he sucks and blah blah blah because he isn't great every time. Again, Marquis is better than every single team's 5th starter, and quite a bit of team's 4th starters too.

 

Jason Marquis stats are skewed by his ridiculous start to the season. Jason was awesome his first month to month in a half of the season, but since then he has came back to earth, and remembered he is Jason Marquis. Since the All Star Break(4 starts) Jason has a 6.75 ERA and a 1.59 Whip, thats not good. He has gotten progressively worse in every month of the season April 2.35 ERA 1.17 WHip May 3.38 ERA 1.05 Whip June 5.09 ERA 1.70 Whip and July 6.29 ERA 1.51 Whip.

 

Now take into consideration that over the course of Marquis career he has historically been terrible in the 2nd half every year, there is definatly cause for concern. Marquis is much more likely to continue on his terrible performances, and there is a very good reason for concern regarding him. At this piont, Gallagher is a much better bet to give you better pitching than Marquis is, and the sad thing is we have Marquis for another 2 years and 14 million dollars

Yeah, that's why it's called an earned run average. Every pitcher goes through peaks and valleys, we're just lucky that Jason had such a great peak. I'm guessing not many (if any) of the other number 5 starters in baseball had that great of a peak.

 

His contract is awful, but that's not on him. As the 5th starter on this team, he's doing his job better than every single other pitcher that has that role for other teams.

 

It's pretty ignorant for people to slam him cause he isn't one of the top pitchers in the league.

 

Hes not the 5th starter on this team, hes the #3. 4 runs in 5 innings tonight, once again a crap performance. The guy sucks in the 2nd half throughout his career and its not changing this year. He continues to tax our bullpen every outing, since he cant even make it past 6 innings. Hes a joke, and his contract that our dumbass GM gave him is even more of a joke.

Did you watch tonight's game? Those four runs weren't exactly cause he was he getting lit up. Two that I can remember were a direct result of Pagan's suckage.

 

And fine, he's the number three starter. His ERA prior to tonight's start was in the upper 40% of starters... in other words, if you're purely looking at ERA and assembling a rotation for each team, Marquis would be a number two starter.

 

I won't argue about the contract. Three years was completely unnecessary. After the year he had last year, it should've been a one year deal with a team option for a second year.

Posted
Don't you have to drop the numbers a bit if you're going to try to project what a player can do at the major league level from what he did in the minors...i.e. Fontenot isn't going to project to have a .366 OBP at the ML level.

 

2007: .260 .336 .400

2008 (age 28) .271 .351 .425

2009 (age 29) .267 .342 .416

2010 (age 30) .264 .346 .406

2011 (age 31) .266 .342 .410

 

 

Great for a second baseman? Not at all. But adequate? Sure. And those are certainly better than your garden-variety backup middle infielder.

 

Thanks for the numbers.

 

And yeah, like you said, those numbers are definitely adequate for a second baseman.

Posted
DKWG is exactly right. And he understated it quite a bit actually.

 

In terms of ERA, Jason Marquis is the best 5th starter in baseball. And it's not even close really. It seems like people always want Marquis to be lights out every start, which is totally reasonable -- I want the same thing. But it's not reasonable to claim that he sucks and blah blah blah because he isn't great every time. Again, Marquis is better than every single team's 5th starter, and quite a bit of team's 4th starters too.

 

Jason Marquis stats are skewed by his ridiculous start to the season. Jason was awesome his first month to month in a half of the season, but since then he has came back to earth, and remembered he is Jason Marquis. Since the All Star Break(4 starts) Jason has a 6.75 ERA and a 1.59 Whip, thats not good. He has gotten progressively worse in every month of the season April 2.35 ERA 1.17 WHip May 3.38 ERA 1.05 Whip June 5.09 ERA 1.70 Whip and July 6.29 ERA 1.51 Whip.

 

Now take into consideration that over the course of Marquis career he has historically been terrible in the 2nd half every year, there is definatly cause for concern. Marquis is much more likely to continue on his terrible performances, and there is a very good reason for concern regarding him. At this piont, Gallagher is a much better bet to give you better pitching than Marquis is, and the sad thing is we have Marquis for another 2 years and 14 million dollars

Yeah, that's why it's called an earned run average. Every pitcher goes through peaks and valleys, we're just lucky that Jason had such a great peak. I'm guessing not many (if any) of the other number 5 starters in baseball had that great of a peak.

 

His contract is awful, but that's not on him. As the 5th starter on this team, he's doing his job better than every single other pitcher that has that role for other teams.

 

It's pretty ignorant for people to slam him cause he isn't one of the top pitchers in the league.

 

Hes not the 5th starter on this team, hes the #3. 4 runs in 5 innings tonight, once again a crap performance. The guy sucks in the 2nd half throughout his career and its not changing this year. He continues to tax our bullpen every outing, since he cant even make it past 6 innings. Hes a joke, and his contract that our dumbass GM gave him is even more of a joke.

Did you watch tonight's game? Those four runs weren't exactly cause he was he getting lit up. Two that I can remember were a direct result of Pagan's suckage.

 

And fine, he's the number three starter. His ERA prior to tonight's start was in the upper 40% of starters... in other words, if you're purely looking at ERA and assembling a rotation for each team, Marquis would be a number two starter.

 

I won't argue about the contract. Three years was completely unnecessary. After the year he had last year, it should've been a one year deal with a team option for a second year.

 

Yes I watched the game. 9 hits in 5 innings of work is not good. You keep bringing up his ERA, even though we keep telling you its been on a steep steady downhill spiral since the first month in a half of the season. Marquis was helped immensely by the wind blowing in and it being so cold out early on in the season. Now those same balls that were pop flys to Right, left, and center, are doubles off walls, or homeruns.

 

Marquis is a huge concern right now for the Chicago Cubs. Given all his career numbers in the 2nd half, and couple that with the downhill spiral this year, there really is no hope with him. Yea he might have a start here or there where he only gives up 3 runs, but that really doesnt mean much when they are surrounded by 5, 6, and 7 run performances where he taxes our bullpen.

Posted

As I previously mentioned, if his command and velo on his sinker are going to be 92 at the belt, he'll get rocked.

 

I remember him being more around 88 at the start of the year with more movement and espec. better command.

Posted
Yes I watched the game. 9 hits in 5 innings of work is not good. You keep bringing up his ERA, even though we keep telling you its been on a steep steady downhill spiral since the first month in a half of the season. Marquis was helped immensely by the wind blowing in and it being so cold out early on in the season. Now those same balls that were pop flys to Right, left, and center, are doubles off walls, or homeruns.

 

Marquis is a huge concern right now for the Chicago Cubs. Given all his career numbers in the 2nd half, and couple that with the downhill spiral this year, there really is no hope with him. Yea he might have a start here or there where he only gives up 3 runs, but that really doesnt mean much when they are surrounded by 5, 6, and 7 run performances where he taxes our bullpen.

Marquis has given up 3 runs or less in 15 of his 23 starts this year.

 

First you say that I'm being unfair in comparing him to 5th starters and that he should be compared to 3rd starters. Fine. So I compare him to 3rd starters and show you that he's performing better than 3rd starters league wide. Whoops. Now you basically say that he rarely gives up 3 runs or less. I then show you that he's actually done that in 2 out of every 3 starts. Whoops again. What are you going to make up next?

 

Please, if you want to continue making crap up just let me know so I can stop wasting my time responding to you. The bottom line is that Marquis hasn't been near as bad as you'd like to think he has.

 

And since it appears that you have no idea where to find his stats, let me help you out: http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/6493/gamelog

Posted
Yes I watched the game. 9 hits in 5 innings of work is not good. You keep bringing up his ERA, even though we keep telling you its been on a steep steady downhill spiral since the first month in a half of the season. Marquis was helped immensely by the wind blowing in and it being so cold out early on in the season. Now those same balls that were pop flys to Right, left, and center, are doubles off walls, or homeruns.

 

Marquis is a huge concern right now for the Chicago Cubs. Given all his career numbers in the 2nd half, and couple that with the downhill spiral this year, there really is no hope with him. Yea he might have a start here or there where he only gives up 3 runs, but that really doesnt mean much when they are surrounded by 5, 6, and 7 run performances where he taxes our bullpen.

Marquis has given up 3 runs or less in 15 of his 23 starts this year.

 

First you say that I'm being unfair in comparing him to 5th starters and that he should be compared to 3rd starters. Fine. So I compare him to 3rd starters and show you that he's performing better than 3rd starters league wide. Whoops. Now you basically say that he rarely gives up 3 runs or less. I then show you that he's actually done that in 2 out of every 3 starts. Whoops again. What are you going to make up next?

 

Please, if you want to continue making crap up just let me know so I can stop wasting my time responding to you. The bottom line is that Marquis hasn't been near as bad as you'd like to think he has.

 

And since it appears that you have no idea where to find his stats, let me help you out: http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/6493/gamelog

 

Ok smartass why the hell is it so hard for you to comprehend the fact that his stats are skewed from his 2.35 ERA to start the damn season? You keep ignoring the fact that he has been on a downward spiral for every month of the season, and this is the same throughout his career.

 

Jason Marquis since July 1st has given up earned runs in this order:1, 6,6 2,6,3,5. So like I said he might give you the an outing of 3 runs or less, but its going to be surrounded by 2 to 3 starts of 5+. Is that really that hard to comprehend?

 

Also Marquis at this point is taxing our BP. Since July 1st he has had 4 of his 7 starts he hasnt even made it to the 6th inning, and 1 more start of exactly 6 innings pitched. He not only is hurting us in the games he pitches, but hes causeing the BP to get overused, hurting the team, in games after his starts.

 

So please, if you want to continue ignoring the facts of his terrible 2nd half now and in his entire career, please let me know so I can stop wasting my time responding to you. The bottom line is Marquis had a good month in a half of a season, and is now a sure bet for 1 "good" start out of 3-4 bad one type pitcher who will also kill your bullpen while doing it. Something the Cubs can not afford to have while being in the middle of a pennant race.

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