Keith Law: Cubs only good because of weak schedule

[Bruno7481]

He was just on ESPNews. Was asked what he was most impressed with during the Cubs past two months. He said nothing much other than they have played weak teams.

 

Wonderful insight midget man.

[kujay]

Oh boy.

 

I hope we aren't at the start of a massive "Lynch Keith Law" campaign like we saw here in St. Louis last year when he said the Cards were a crappy team, title or no title.

 

All you can do is play the teams put in front of you.

[Bruno7481]

I just found it to be an uninformed comment. Sure, the schedule has helped, but Milwaukee has the same schedule.

[Dr. Cub]

I tend to agree with him. I don't think this team is even close to as good as they've been playing. I'm expecting a downturn in the number of games over .500, with a finish of 78-82 wins.

[chuckywang]

The interleague schedule is what makes schedules uneven within a division. The Cubs played the White Sox 6 times every year....2005 and 2006 that made the schedule harder, now it makes the schedule easier. Eh, whatever.

[Soul]

I tend to agree with him. I don't think this team is even close to as good as they've been playing. I'm expecting a downturn in the number of games over .500, with a finish of 78-82 wins.

 

I hope we don't fall that far, but yes I must agree that even though I don't like hearing that comment, there can't be much argument we have jumped up on the backs of some pretty poor baseball teams.

[RynoRules]

Dear Mr. Law:

 

There are only 15 teams with currently w/ a record of .500 of better at last check. Accordingly, you are likely to play half your games against teams with a record of .500 or better, and half against teams that are under .500.

 

If you go 40 and 41 against the teams over .500 and 55-26 against the teams under .500 you finish with (**gasp!**) 96 wins.

[David]

I tend to agree with him. I don't think this team is even close to as good as they've been playing. I'm expecting a downturn in the number of games over .500, with a finish of 78-82 wins.

 

I highly, highly doubt this. I'd be extremely surprised if they played as poorly as .500 ball the rest of the way, much less under .500.

 

The schedule doesn't get any harder than it has been.

[Soul]

I tend to agree with him. I don't think this team is even close to as good as they've been playing. I'm expecting a downturn in the number of games over .500, with a finish of 78-82 wins.

 

I highly, highly doubt this. I'd be extremely surprised if they played as poorly as .500 ball the rest of the way, much less under .500.

 

The schedule doesn't get any harder than it has been.

 

This week it certainly does. Then the week of 8/24 - 8/30 it's Zona & Milw. - that's tougher.

 

September is incredible though, I think the toughest team we play all month is the Dodgers, and it's one series sandwiched between HOU & PITT.

[Electron Blue]

I tend to agree with him. I don't think this team is even close to as good as they've been playing. I'm expecting a downturn in the number of games over .500, with a finish of 78-82 wins.

 

I highly, highly doubt this. I'd be extremely surprised if they played as poorly as .500 ball the rest of the way, much less under .500.

 

The schedule doesn't get any harder than it has been.

 

and don't discount the impact of new arrivals Griffey, Dunn, Dye, Dotel, Gagne, Teixeira, Willis, and Santana.

 

I'd be very surprised if we finished below .500 ;)

[jjgman21]

Dear Mr. Law:

 

There are only 15 teams with currently w/ a record of .500 of better at last check. Accordingly, you are likely to play half your games against teams with a record of .500 or better, and half against teams that are under .500.

 

If you go 40 and 41 against the teams over .500 and 55-26 against the teams under .500 you finish with (**gasp!**) 96 wins.

 

and accordingly, since Lou's ejection, the Cubs have played 50 games, 23 against teams within 3.5 of a playoff spot.

 

Atl - 5 (3-2)

Mil - 6 (4-2)

Col - 3 (3-0)

AZ - 3 (1-2)

Sea - 3 (2-1)

SD - 3 (1-2)

[jersey cubs fan]

The Cubs and Brewers definitely benefit from playing a weaker schedule than their counterparts in the East and West. The Cubs are sub .500 vs non-Central NL teams. And the DBacks are the only NL contender that hasn't beaten the crap out of the Central. All the rest have a better W% vs the Central than both MIL and the Cubs. And the Cubs definitely benefitted from playing the pathetic White Sox at just about their low.

 

It's still quite possible that the best of the east and the west are going to beat each other up enough to allow both the Cubs and Brewers to tip-toe into the playoffs with the benefit of playing STL, HOU, PITT and CIN over and over again.

[jjgman21]

I tend to agree with him. I don't think this team is even close to as good as they've been playing. I'm expecting a downturn in the number of games over .500, with a finish of 78-82 wins.

 

I hope we don't fall that far, but yes I must agree that even though I don't like hearing that comment, there can't be much argument we have jumped up on the backs of some pretty poor baseball teams.

 

which would be disconcerting if not for the fact that they jumped on the backs of some pretty good baseball teams as well.

 

as shown above, the Cubs have gained 7 games against teams above .500. they have gained 9 games against teams below .500.

 

if anything, they haven't done the job against some of the poor teams that they should have. losing series against Pitt and Texas was pathetic.

[Fred Hornkohl]

CUBS are 4-5 vs. Cincinnati 
CUBS are 4-2 vs. Houston 
CUBS are 7-5 vs. Milwaukee 
CUBS are 4-5 vs. Pittsburgh 
CUBS are 5-3 vs. St. Louis 
CUBS are 4-5 vs. Atlanta 
CUBS are 0-3 vs. Florida 
CUBS are 6-1 vs. Washington 
CUBS are 1-3 vs. New York 
CUBS are 1-2 vs. Philadelphia 
CUBS are 1-2 vs. Arizona 
CUBS are 3-0 vs. Colorado 
CUBS are 1-2 vs. Los Angeles 
CUBS are 3-5 vs. San Diego 
CUBS are 3-1 vs. San Francisco 
CUBS are 5-1 vs. Chicago (AL) 
CUBS are 2-1 vs. Seattle 
CUBS are 1-2 vs. Texas

 

CUBS are 24-20 vs. the NLC Division
CUBS are 12-14 vs. the NLE Division
CUBS are 11-10 vs. the NLW Division
CUBS are 8-4 vs. the AL

[TheDude]

I tend to agree with him. I don't think this team is even close to as good as they've been playing. I'm expecting a downturn in the number of games over .500, with a finish of 78-82 wins.

 

Except that the Pythagorean Win-Loss statistic says the Cubs should be +3 over the current record (meaning they should be 58-45 right now).

 

The team has actually been unlucky by a factor of three games based on Runs Scored and Runs Allowed analysis. So the team is actually better than the record suggests, not worse as you suggest.

[TheDude]

There is some validity to Law's argument, but as usual he takes the extreme stance rather a reasonable one. It's a chicken-and-egg argument, and has to account for the possibility that the Cubs are simply better than the teams they have been playing, and those teams end up looking worse after meeting the Cubs.

 

Why isn't Law applying the same argument to West? The teams in the West have far better records than they should, primarily because all the teams (except Dodgers) are in the bottom 5 for offensive production in the MLB. The Dodgers are just average, only slightly better than the Cubs.

 

If any team in the West could hit, that team would run away with it.

[oldcubsfan]

Listening to or reading Keith Law leaves little doubt why Toronto fired him. He is simply an idiot.

[jjgman21]

The interleague schedule is what makes schedules uneven within a division. The Cubs played the White Sox 6 times every year....2005 and 2006 that made the schedule harder, now it makes the schedule easier. Eh, whatever.

 

this year seems to be a little different, but even in past years there was an additional outlier in that each team in the Central would play an extra series against two teams from the east and/or west.

 

this year, instead of 6 against most east and west teams and 9 against two random east/west teams, the Cubs schedule includes 8 against SD, 8 against Atl, 7 against LA, 7 against NY, 7 against Philly, 7 against San Fran, 7 against the Nats, 7 against Col, and only six games against the Dbacks and Marlins. there are additional variables besides interleague that do in fact attribute to uneven strength of schedules within the division.

[seanimal]

I couldn't find anything about how it's calculated, but according to this site, the Cubs have the weakest schedule in all of baseball.

[Banedon]

I couldn't find anything about how it's calculated, but according to this site, the Cubs have the weakest schedule in all of baseball.

 

Of course every team in the NL Central is at the bottom of that...

 

And I can't tell...is that overall schedule or just what's left?

[seanimal]

I couldn't find anything about how it's calculated, but according to this site, the Cubs have the weakest schedule in all of baseball.

 

Of course every team in the NL Central is at the bottom of that...

 

And I can't tell...is that overall schedule or just what's left?

 

And no American League team has an easier schedule than anyone in the National League...

 

That's exactly what I was wondering. I really wish I knew how that was calculated, but I imagine he considers his formula 'proprietary' and doesn't want to just give it away. I would guess it is recalculated based on the records of the teams played and yet to play.

 

My thoughts:

1) Strong teams are at a disadvantage because they win more games, thus making their schedule 'weaker' by simply playing better. Conversely, weaker teams make their schedule 'stronger' by simply playing worse than their opponents.

2) Strength of schedule in baseball only has limited, if any, value when attempting to determine how strong a team is compared to their record. Pythagorean record is a much better indicator of how well a team has played, IMO.

 

If any of the resident experts could chime in that would be excellent.

[jjgman21]

I couldn't find anything about how it's calculated, but according to this site, the Cubs have the weakest schedule in all of baseball.

 

Of course every team in the NL Central is at the bottom of that...

 

And I can't tell...is that overall schedule or just what's left?

 

And no American League team has an easier schedule than anyone in the National League...

 

That's exactly what I was wondering. I really wish I knew how that was calculated, but I imagine he considers his formula 'proprietary' and doesn't want to just give it away. I would guess it is recalculated based on the records of the teams played and yet to play.

 

My thoughts:

1) Strong teams are at a disadvantage because they win more games, thus making their schedule 'weaker' by simply playing better. Conversely, weaker teams make their schedule 'stronger' by simply playing worse than their opponents.

2) Strength of schedule in baseball only has limited, if any, value when attempting to determine how strong a team is compared to their record. Pythagorean record is a much better indicator of how well a team has played, IMO.

 

If any of the resident experts could chime in that would be excellent.

 

I'm thinking its up until this point of the season, based on their power rankings.

[Balsa]

Oh boy.

 

I hope we aren't at the start of a massive "Lynch Keith Law" campaign like we saw here in St. Louis last year when he said the Cards were a crappy team, title or no title.

 

All you can do is play the teams put in front of you.

Well that's true.

[BigSlick]

I tend to agree with him. I don't think this team is even close to as good as they've been playing. I'm expecting a downturn in the number of games over .500, with a finish of 78-82 wins.

 

Its a nice thing all the stats disagree with you and we are actually still underperforming our talent by a couple games.

 

BTW, those super talented Brewers you are so afraid of: still overpeforming slightly.

[RynoRules]

I'd also like to mention that the AL is top-heavy. They have three crap-tacular teams at the bottom of each div, plus a fourth that is on the border:

 

D Rays: 40-65

 

KC: 47-58

 

CWS: 48-57

 

TX: 46-59

 

There really isn't much depth beyond the 6 "heavy weights" (Bos, NYY, Det., Clev., Halos, and Seattle.)

 

It is worth noting that Seattle's pythag. says they should be a mere 2 games over .500. Likewise, both Anaheim and Cleveland should have three fewer wins than they do.

 

In fact, the only AL contender with a significant "positive" differential between their actual wins and their pythag wins is the Yankees, who should have 7 more wins than they do.

 

Point is that the prevailing view that the AL is head-and-shoulders above the NL may in fact be hyperbole.