White Sox wanted Marmol for Dye

[RonnieWooWooSanto]

Interestingly enough, on Chicago Tribune Live Gail Fischer asked Sox beat writer Mark Gonzalez (Chicago Tribune) if he would trade Dye for Marmol. He said it was "not enough". She looked at him as if he was crazy.

 

They quickly segued to their next topic, but she was shaking her head in disbelief.

[jjgman21]

on March 31, 2006 Jermaine Dye was the right handed Jacque Jones.

[jjgman21]

The problem is that you aren't looking at the big picture.

 

....A game is won by the team that scores more runs.

 

 

the problem is far too many only look at the big picture. the game is indeed won by the team that scores more runs. the problem is, you don't take the total number of runs at the end of the year and divide by 162 to determine won-loss records.

 

who wouldn't trade Marmol for the right bat? it's real easy to dismiss Jermaine Dye, but exactly what sort of player would adequately replace Marmol's contributions?

[Sarcastic]

The problem is that you aren't looking at the big picture.

 

....A game is won by the team that scores more runs.

 

 

the problem is far too many only look at the big picture. the game is indeed won by the team that scores more runs. the problem is, you don't take the total number of runs at the end of the year and divide by 162 to determine won-loss records.

 

True, but run differentials do have a strong correlation with win-loss records, and no amount of grit will change that. Bullpen pitchers remain much less valuable than starters and everyday players because they have fewer chances to make an impact. That's all I'm saying.

[JimSorgi]

Interestingly enough, on Chicago Tribune Live Gail Fischer asked Sox beat writer Mark Gonzalez (Chicago Tribune) if he would trade Dye for Marmol. He said it was "not enough". She looked at him as if he was crazy.

 

They quickly segued to their next topic, but she was shaking her head in disbelief.

What does he think Dye can get them?

[abuck1220]

guys who pitch 2-3 innings a week are not invaluable. position players who get 30 ab's a week can be.

 

everyone overemphasizes the importance of good middle relief because the losses bad middle relief cost you stick out in your memory. for example, the cubs would have still won these last two games w/ a mediocre pen.

 

that being said, i wouldn't trade marmol for dye.

[jjgman21]

The problem is that you aren't looking at the big picture.

 

....A game is won by the team that scores more runs.

 

 

the problem is far too many only look at the big picture. the game is indeed won by the team that scores more runs. the problem is, you don't take the total number of runs at the end of the year and divide by 162 to determine won-loss records.

 

True, but run differentials do have a strong correlation with win-loss records, and no amount of grit will change that. Bullpen pitchers remain much less valuable than starters and everyday players because they have fewer chances to make an impact. That's all I'm saying.

 

believe me, I'm well aware of the correlation. but boy do I wish we were playing pythagorean baseball in 2004 and 2005.

 

 

speaking of grit, not saying that was anything other than a distractor in this conversation, but that's alot like clutch, right?

 

Aram OPS 6/2 - 6/21 - 7/28

 

.903 - .892 - .908

 

 

since the beginning of June, the Cubs rank among NL teams in runs scored has undergone a steady slide, yet they have completely turned it around. so it's not the offense that has done it. so it's Z you say? well that is completely counterbalanced with Marquis. Hill and Lilly? nope, they're both worse now than they were on 6/2. Marshall? definitely an upgrade over what was out there earlier in the year, but not 16 game swing good.

 

the Cubs turn around has been due to their bullpen turning it around. I'd love to spin some of it to improve the offense, but you're gonna have to blow me away if it's Marmol being spun.

 

how about seeing how desperate the Tigers are. Marmol for Granderson?

[jjgman21]

for example, the cubs would have still won these last two games w/ a mediocre pen.

 

 

that's a garbola argument. nobody doubts that having a great pen isn't going to matter in the majority of games, but there's a good percentage of games where it will be incredibly important. 32% of the Cubs games have been decided by one run. so don't go throwing out back to back games of 6+ run differentials as if it were the norm.

[Sarcastic]

A lot of the Cubs recent winning streak was really luck, winning close games. Similarly, luck hurt their record quite a bit early in the year.

 

Of course, you could claim that the Cubs winning close games wasn't luck, it was really the bullpen going from being the worst to being the best. The problem is, the pen was only partially responsible for all of the blown games, and the saved ones. They can only hold or blow a lead if they are given one, and the likelihood that they will do one or the other is greatly influenced by the size of the lead. It just so happens that lately, the team has had just enough to come through quite often, and the pen has been just good enough to hold leads. It can't shoulder the majority of the credit for the recent run.

[AlwaysaCub]

guys who pitch 2-3 innings a week are not invaluable. position players who get 30 ab's a week can be.

 

everyone overemphasizes the importance of good middle relief because the losses bad middle relief cost you stick out in your memory. for example, the cubs would have still won these last two games w/ a mediocre pen.

 

But in the postseason and in critical games, your best pitchers pitch a much higher percentage of the innings. In the playoffs having a shutdown middle reliever is invaluable (See 2002 Angles, 2006 Tigers). I think this needs to e taken into consideration. How much of an upgrade over Floyd is Dye actually?

 

The difference between Griffey and Jaque is much greater than the gap between Dye and Floyd, which is almost nothing at this stage in both of their careers. Floyd is hiting .294/.357/.397, an atrocious slugging percentage for a right fielder. Dye has a more respectable slugging, but is hitting only .234/.296/.459 overall, which as an overall line is even worse than Floyd's.

 

But then again, Jason Kendall was hitting the mendoza line, so who knows.

[jjgman21]

A lot of the Cubs recent winning streak was really luck, winning close games. Similarly, luck hurt their record quite a bit early in the year.

 

Of course, you could claim that the Cubs winning close games wasn't luck, it was really the bullpen going from being the worst to being the best. The problem is, the pen was only partially responsible for all of the blown games, and the saved ones. They can only hold or blow a lead if they are given one, and the likelihood that they will do one or the other is greatly influenced by the size of the lead. It just so happens that lately, the team has had just enough to come through quite often, and the pen has been just good enough to hold leads. It can't shoulder the majority of the credit for the recent run.

 

"it just so happens"

 

early in the year, most of the problem was indeed blowing close games. but the problem was the pen held a one or two run lead maybe 3 times the first two months of the season. they also blew several bigger leads. they also turned several one or two run deficits into big leads that couldn't be overcome.

 

you try to attribute it to two batters whose stats haven't changed since the Cubs got hot, but when the numbers show the pen has vastly improved while everything else stayed pretty much the same or actually got worse, well, that's just luck.

[Sarcastic]

I'm not saying the pen hasn't pitched better. What I am saying is that they are not the sole, or even main, reason for the streak. The numbers the team put up before the streak should have resulted in a better record. That is the primary factor. The other was the team's luck in winning close games. The pen pitching well also helped, no doubt. But the fact remains that relievers are less valuable than starters and everyday players, for reasons you have not attempted to refute directly.

[jjgman21]

I'm not saying the pen hasn't pitched better. What I am saying is that they are not the sole, or even main, reason for the streak.

 

I know, you are attributing it to luck. hitting got worse. starting pitching got worse. pen got better. must be luck. (shhh, don't tell anyone that while the hitting and pitching got worse, the pythag record got better too).

 

it's the worst thing about the stats movement. five years ago they determined 'these are the only explanations worth anything' and everything since has been about defending those methodologies and ridiculing any other explanations or any criticque. zero attempt to look for better ways to explain things that were previously unexplained, just call it luck.

 

Bill James himself says maybe the clutch argument is wrong, he's scoffed at. I think it was DM posts an article saying that maybe pitchers do have something to do with the outcome of a batted ball, they are ridiculed. don't dare try to explain previously unexplained phenomena, because it might put a chink in the new dogmatic armor.

 

I am not saying stats are not valuable. I am saying give me better stats to explain the things that haven't been explained, and don't ignore the stats just because they are counter to your argument. quit throwing your hands up in the air and declaring it luck.

[Sarcastic]

Would you care to acknowledge my original point or will you concede it?

[soccer10k]

I've got to agree with jjgman on this one regarding the pen. I mean, the pen blew a bunch of games early in the year and subsequently, the Cubs were horrendous in one run games. Now, the pen is pitching well, and all of a sudden the Cubs are winning all kinds of one run games. That's only a two run difference but it has mattered.

 

Cubs record in 1-run games:

April through June 2: 2-12

June 3 to present: 12-5

 

That has coincided with the Cubs turnaround.

 

EDIT: I'm not saying that luck has nothing to do with it - I'm sure it does - but the pen has played a bigger role.

[Shavo]

Class post Jig, not even so much for the topic but for in general when discussing statistics on this site. =D>

[PrimeTime]

Ok..So you give up Iguchi for sum single A nobody...But then you want Marmol for Dye? Kiss my ass Kenny Williams...

[RationalSoxFan]

If Dye walks, they get Type A compensation. I can understand what KW is doing just because if Dye's value on the trade market is this low, then just go for a pie in the sky deal and if it doesn't work out, keep Dye and take the picks.

 

And, one more time, Iguchi was traded for a "nobody" because a) you can't offer him arbitration b) could find much better options on the market and c) would have to be out of your mind if you thought this was the Iguchi of 2005 and 2006.

[Peoriaman]

well said jjig. The stats guys are as unbending and stubborn now as they claimed the old-timers were a few years ago.

[Keener98]

well said jjig. The stats guys are as unbending and stubborn now as they claimed the old-timers were a few years ago.

 

:roll:

[RynoRules]

I'm not saying the pen hasn't pitched better. What I am saying is that they are not the sole, or even main, reason for the streak.

 

I know, you are attributing it to luck. hitting got worse. starting pitching got worse. pen got better. must be luck. (shhh, don't tell anyone that while the hitting and pitching got worse, the pythag record got better too).

 

it's the worst thing about the stats movement. five years ago they determined 'these are the only explanations worth anything' and everything since has been about defending those methodologies and ridiculing any other explanations or any criticque. zero attempt to look for better ways to explain things that were previously unexplained, just call it luck.

 

Bill James himself says maybe the clutch argument is wrong, he's scoffed at. I think it was DM posts an article saying that maybe pitchers do have something to do with the outcome of a batted ball, they are ridiculed. don't dare try to explain previously unexplained phenomena, because it might put a chink in the new dogmatic armor.

 

I am not saying stats are not valuable. I am saying give me better stats to explain the things that haven't been explained, and don't ignore the stats just because they are counter to your argument. quit throwing your hands up in the air and declaring it luck.

 

Well said.

 

Statistical methedoligies are getting better and better, but even James would acknowledge they can't account for everything yet. For example, could there be a way to measure this "thing" we call "luck"? Maybe. Could there be a way to illustarte that it does not exist? I dunno, but I do know that it has become a fall-back when we can't explain something.

 

The playoffs are another good example. Near as I can tell the prevailing wisdom is that the playoffs are a complete crapshoot. But maybe we just haven't figured out a way to identify the common denominators between good playoff teams.

[E.J.]

Daily Southtown[/url]"]Given the lack of durability of Cliff Floyd in right field, the Cubs may want Dye as an insurance policy. They could offer a package that includes outfielder Matt Murton, who doesn't appear to fit their future plans, although the Sox may be reluctant to deal with their crosstown rivals.

[Soul]

Statistical methedoligies are getting better and better, but even James would acknowledge they can't account for everything yet. For example, could there be a way to measure this "thing" we call "luck"? Maybe. Could there be a way to illustarte that it does not exist? I dunno, but I do know that it has become a fall-back when we can't explain something.

 

Trouble is, people use luck as a fallback when *they* can't explain something, not because an explanation doesn't exist.

[Banedon]

Daily Southtown[/url]"]Given the lack of durability of Cliff Floyd in right field, the Cubs may want Dye as an insurance policy. They could offer a package that includes outfielder Matt Murton, who doesn't appear to fit their future plans, although the Sox may be reluctant to deal with their crosstown rivals.

 

They weren't reluctant in the Garland-Karchner trade.

 

But yeah, I'd be shocked if we got Dye.

[MPC]

Daily Southtown[/url]"]Given the lack of durability of Cliff Floyd in right field, the Cubs may want Dye as an insurance policy. They could offer a package that includes outfielder Matt Murton, who doesn't appear to fit their future plans, although the Sox may be reluctant to deal with their crosstown rivals.

 

They weren't reluctant in the Garland-Karchner trade.

or cotts for aardsma.