Do the Cubs have a chance?

[jersey cubs fan]

The Brewers are a more complete team than the Cubs. They built the team from the ground up and only have one starting position player that is not home grown (Estrada).

 

If you think Ryan Braun is playing out of his mind as a previous poster stated, you are mistaken. The guy has been able to rake at every level and continues to get even better. Corey Hart is finally just getting a shot to play and is excelling because of it.

 

I love how everyone thinks that the Brewers will obviously regress yet the Cubs will magically bring it all together. It's madness. The Brewers position by position are a more talented team with stud prospects now becoming stud major league players. The scary part is that they are all 23 and 24 years old and will only get better.

 

Believe what you want, but at least make the discussion a bit more realistic. From an outsiders perspective, it gets a little comical. I give it a couple days and the "This season is over thread" will be back.

 

What a stupid post.

 

How in the hell do you interpret this as everybody thinking the Brewers will obviously regress yet the Cubs will magically bring it together?

 

Seriously. Very stupid post.

[Alfonso Soriano]

The Brewers are a more complete team than the Cubs. They built the team from the ground up and only have one starting position player that is not home grown (Estrada).

 

If you think Ryan Braun is playing out of his mind as a previous poster stated, you are mistaken. The guy has been able to rake at every level and continues to get even better. Corey Hart is finally just getting a shot to play and is excelling because of it.

 

I love how everyone thinks that the Brewers will obviously regress yet the Cubs will magically bring it all together. It's madness. The Brewers position by position are a more talented team with stud prospects now becoming stud major league players. The scary part is that they are all 23 and 24 years old and will only get better.

 

Believe what you want, but at least make the discussion a bit more realistic. From an outsiders perspective, it gets a little comical. I give it a couple days and the "This season is over thread" will be back.

http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a315/Matt_2108/soxfanlol.png

[jersey cubs fan]

Colorado is hot.

[UMFan83]

The Brewers are a more complete team than the Cubs. They built the team from the ground up and only have one starting position player that is not home grown (Estrada).

 

If you think Ryan Braun is playing out of his mind as a previous poster stated, you are mistaken. The guy has been able to rake at every level and continues to get even better. Corey Hart is finally just getting a shot to play and is excelling because of it.

 

I love how everyone thinks that the Brewers will obviously regress yet the Cubs will magically bring it all together. It's madness. The Brewers position by position are a more talented team with stud prospects now becoming stud major league players. The scary part is that they are all 23 and 24 years old and will only get better.

 

Believe what you want, but at least make the discussion a bit more realistic. From an outsiders perspective, it gets a little comical. I give it a couple days and the "This season is over thread" will be back.

 

How can you have any outsiders perspective about the Cubs chances in the Central when your team is the team we are trying to catch?

 

Lets go over the Brewers and Cubs position by position:

 

LF: Soriano over Jenkins

CF: Hall over Pie

RF: Hart over Floyd (could change)

1B: Fielder pushes Lee (yeah you will probably argue that)

2B: DeRosa over Weeks (stay healthy for a few weeks)

SS: Hardy over Fontenot/Izturis/Theriot

3B: Ramirez over Braun

C: Estrada over Bowen

 

SP: Zambrano over Sheets

SP: Hill over Vargas

SP: Marshall pushes Gallardo (for now)

SP: Lilly pushes Suppan (although Lilly has better numbers at this point)

SP: Marquis over Bush (if Cap is healthy, I might considering giving him the nod)

 

Bullpen: Brewers over Cubs

Bench: Brewers (Mench, Gross, Graff, Counsell, Miller) slight edge over Cubs (Pagan, Theriot, Murton when in the bigs, Izturis, Ward)

 

So my surely unintentional bias puts the score at Brewers 6, Cubs 6, Push 3. The point is, the Brewers are not at this point 7.5 games better than the Cubs. You can argue that my rankings should be judged in one of several hundreds of other ways, but if you simply look at pythag standings, the Cubs are right behind the Brewers. It's pretty obvious to say that the Cubs have way under performed this year, while the Brewers have slightly over performed. Whether or not that will matter after 162 games because of the big lead the Brewers built up, thats an entirely different story.

[Garwilly]

 

Believe what you want, but at least make the discussion a bit more realistic. From an outsiders perspective, it gets a little comical. I give it a couple days and the "This season is over thread" will be back.

 

How can you have any outsiders perspective about the Cubs chances in the Central when your team is the team we are trying to catch?

 

 

I assumed "Jenksfan" was a Sox fan.

[Chocolate Milk]

I think the Cubs will continue to be in the race as long as they keep winning all the games they play.

[Chocolate Milk]

 

Believe what you want, but at least make the discussion a bit more realistic. From an outsiders perspective, it gets a little comical. I give it a couple days and the "This season is over thread" will be back.

 

How can you have any outsiders perspective about the Cubs chances in the Central when your team is the team we are trying to catch?

 

 

I assumed "Jenksfan" was a Sox fan.

 

I think he's just a fan of fat guys.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The Brewers are a more complete team than the Cubs. They built the team from the ground up and only have one starting position player that is not home grown (Estrada).

 

If you think Ryan Braun is playing out of his mind as a previous poster stated, you are mistaken. The guy has been able to rake at every level and continues to get even better. Corey Hart is finally just getting a shot to play and is excelling because of it.

 

I love how everyone thinks that the Brewers will obviously regress yet the Cubs will magically bring it all together. It's madness. The Brewers position by position are a more talented team with stud prospects now becoming stud major league players. The scary part is that they are all 23 and 24 years old and will only get better.

 

Believe what you want, but at least make the discussion a bit more realistic. From an outsiders perspective, it gets a little comical. I give it a couple days and the "This season is over thread" will be back.

 

What a stupid post.

 

How in the hell do you interpret this as everybody thinking the Brewers will obviously regress yet the Cubs will magically bring it together?

 

Seriously. Very stupid post.

 

Even if anyone was saying that, it's not exactly crazy given their run differential/pythag records(even though I know you hate them).

[BigbadB]

Colorado is hot.

 

How did I know that you would further elaborate on your point from earlier in this discussion? :D

[bukie]

At this point I'd be pretty disappointed in a 3-3 homestand.

[BigbadB]

The Brewers are a more complete team than the Cubs. They built the team from the ground up and only have one starting position player that is not home grown (Estrada).

 

If you think Ryan Braun is playing out of his mind as a previous poster stated, you are mistaken. The guy has been able to rake at every level and continues to get even better. Corey Hart is finally just getting a shot to play and is excelling because of it.

 

I love how everyone thinks that the Brewers will obviously regress yet the Cubs will magically bring it all together. It's madness. The Brewers position by position are a more talented team with stud prospects now becoming stud major league players. The scary part is that they are all 23 and 24 years old and will only get better.

 

Believe what you want, but at least make the discussion a bit more realistic. From an outsiders perspective, it gets a little comical. I give it a couple days and the "This season is over thread" will be back.

 

What does having only one starting position player that isn't home grown have anything to do with one team being more complete than another?

 

The Brewers are a Ben Sheets injury away from falling back to the world of mediocrity. I'll honestly be very surprised if the Brewers end up running away with this division. The Cubs are a much better team than how they have actually played to this point. The Brewers are a good team, but I think they've played over their heads a bit to this point.

 

Therefore, it's easy to state that it's quite feasible for the Brewers to regress a bit while the Cubs bring it all together. Doesn't mean it will happen, but that's what many Cub fans are hoping.

 

Or do you believe all Cub fans should hope for the opposite?

[jersey cubs fan]

Even if anyone was saying that, it's not exactly crazy given their run differential/pythag records(even though I know you hate them).

 

I don't hate them. I hate looking at them in April and May and just assuming the team will start playing to that pace.

[XZero771679666304]

Let's not forget also how bad the Brewers were earlier this month, and that this recent winning trend has come largely at the expense of bad teams.

 

If the Cubs and Cards weren't equally as bad in late May/early June, the Brew Crew would have certainly coughed up the division lead. There's no reason to think such a bad stretch can't repeat itself.

 

I am not saying it will happen, but it is certainly reasonable to think it very well could, considering it just did.

[Ender]

3B: Ramirez over Braun

 

Could easily be a push though I agree I'd put my money on ARam.

 

2B: DeRosa over Weeks

 

This is a push, Graffanino is close to DeRosa so even when they rest Weeks wrist its not a clear advantage.

 

SP: Zambrano over Sheets

 

There is no reason to believe this, Sheets has been better over the past 4 seasons (albeit with an injury) and he's been better this year. At best its a push, at worse its advantage Sheets.

 

SP: Marquis over Bush

 

I'd call this a push myself, Bush has pitched better than his ERA and Marquis has pitched worse than his.

 

 

These types of things never really mean much but I don't think your list is really unbiased at all. The Brewers are as good a team as the Cubs and they have a big lead, the Cubs really need to do well in the head to head games to have a chance in my opinion. The one advantage the Cubs do have is the Brewers are a young team and young teams tend to fade a bit down the stretch.

Edited June 27, 2007 by Ender

[bukie]

Summary of my thought:

 

If the Cubs are going to insist on playing .500 ball for the rest of the year, their only hope is that the rest of their division plays pathetically. They are absolutely not going to be able to catch anyone for the wild card playing .500 ball.

 

However, if the Cubs can put together a long (like, 3 month long) string of good ball, say, .600 or better, then the Cubs will make up ground on the league of their own accord. Playing .600 ball from here on out would put the Cubs at 89 wins. If Milwaukee continues playing as they have, 89 wins won't be able to win the division. However, 89 wins is not outside the realm of a wildcard berth.

 

Given the Cubs' performance up to this point, I'd say the far more likely scenario would be a mix of the two, which would make the wildcard out of the question and force the Cubs to hope the Brewers collapse. The better the Cubs play, the less dependence on other teams.

[bukie]

SP: Zambrano over Sheets

 

There is no reason to believe this, Sheets has been better over the past 4 seasons (albeit with an injury) and he's been better this year. At best its a push, at worse its advantage Sheets.

 

Ok, now I hate position-by-position comparisons as much as the next guy, since they are truly a meaningless "metric" of team comparison, but there is no way Sheets has been better than Zambrano over the past 4 seasons. This year, absolutely. 2003-2006, Zambrano has had a higher ERA+, better ERA, higher VORP, and more Win Shares each year. Sheets beats him in walk rate easy, but that's about it.

[UMFan83]

3B: Ramirez over Braun

 

Could easily be a push though I agree I'd put my money on ARam.

 

2B: DeRosa over Weeks

 

This is a push, Graffanino is close to DeRosa so even when they rest Weeks wrist its not a clear advantage.

 

SP: Zambrano over Sheets

 

There is no reason to believe this, Sheets has been better over the past 4 seasons (albeit with an injury) and he's been better this year. At best its a push, at worse its advantage Sheets.

 

SP: Marquis over Bush

 

I'd call this a push myself, Bush has pitched better than his ERA and Marquis has pitched worse than his.

 

 

These types of things never really mean much but I don't think your list is really unbiased at all. The Brewers are as good a team as the Cubs and they have a big lead, the Cubs really need to do well in the head to head games to have a chance in my opinion. The one advantage the Cubs do have is the Brewers are a young team and young teams tend to fade a bit down the stretch.

 

Not sure how you think Sheets is better. I do give credit to sheets, he is a phenomenal pitcher, but Zambrano is one of the best in the league when his head is on. Yeah you can say his head isnt on a lot, but thats like saying Sheets can't stay healthy.

 

ERA+ comparison:

 

Zambrano:

2003: 136

2004: 165

2005: 131

2006: 136

2007: 103

 

Sheets:

2003: 98

2004: 154

2005: 127

2006: 118

2007: 138

 

I guess I can't take too much credit in that, considering his injury concerns, but what else can I go on? How about BAA?

 

Zambrano:

2003: .239

2004: .225

2005: .212

2006: .208

2007: .246

 

Sheets:

2003: .268

2004: .226

2005: .237

2006: .259

2007: .245

 

Yes, Z's biggest problem is always WHIP, but since his BAA is so low, his runners rarely score, so it is not as big of a problem as it would be for most pitchers.

 

Statistically, Zambrano is a slight to moderately better pitcher than Sheets is. If Sheets stays healthy for 2-3 straight years and puts up a consistant track record of being statistically similar to Zambrano, then we can talk.

[UMFan83]

And yes, I hate position by position comparisons, especially because lineup order comparisions would be better yet still flawed. I just think they are fun to put together.

[Ender]

Sheets - 601.2 IP, 545 H, 91 BB, 591 K, 209 ER, 3.13 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 1.36 BB/9, 8.84 K/9

Zambrano - 752.1 IP, 602 H, 326 BB, 686 K, 276 ER, 3.30 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 3.90 BB/9, 8.21 K/9

 

The only stat Zambrano beats Sheets at is hitting and staying healthy. Like I said this is at best a push and if you want to weigh it towards this season more you could make an argument for advantage Sheets. There is no way its advantage Zambrano though. ERA+ is a garbage stat so don't use that to try to prove anything, its based on poorly designed park factors. WARP is a stat that is going to depend on playtime too much. Sheets has K'd more, BB'd less, had a better ERA, had a better WHIP over the past 3.5 years, at best this is a push.

[bukie]

Sheets - 601.2 IP, 545 H, 91 BB, 591 K, 209 ER, 3.13 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 1.36 BB/9, 8.84 K/9

Zambrano - 752.1 IP, 602 H, 326 BB, 686 K, 276 ER, 3.30 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 3.90 BB/9, 8.21 K/9

 

The only stat Zambrano beats Sheets at is hitting and staying healthy. Like I said this is at best a push and if you want to weigh it towards this season more you could make an argument for advantage Sheets. There is no way its advantage Zambrano though.

 

Ahh, I see, you mean the last 4 years to ignore 2003 to better support your argument, since Zambrano was significantly better that year. In each individual year, Zambrano has also been better. It's just so far in 2007 where Zambrano has been horrible. You can't remove 2007, but you also can't take it as an average representation of the kind of pitcher Zambrano has been, especially if you want to assume Sheets would pitch just as well for the entire year had he not been injured.

 

EDIT: Cute, you also totally disregard metrics that don't support your arguments as well. Why is ERA+ a garbage metric? Just because they calculate park factors based on performance in that park? It's not perfect, but it's no more a garbage metric than any comprehensive metric, which of course all support Zambrano prior to this year's performance.

[XZero771679666304]

Sheets - 601.2 IP, 545 H, 91 BB, 591 K, 209 ER, 3.13 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 1.36 BB/9, 8.84 K/9

Zambrano - 752.1 IP, 602 H, 326 BB, 686 K, 276 ER, 3.30 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 3.90 BB/9, 8.21 K/9

 

The only stat Zambrano beats Sheets at is hitting and staying healthy. Like I said this is at best a push and if you want to weigh it towards this season more you could make an argument for advantage Sheets. There is no way its advantage Zambrano though. ERA+ is a garbage stat so don't use that to try to prove anything, its based on poorly designed park factors. WARP is a stat that is going to depend on playtime too much. Sheets has K'd more, BB'd less, had a better ERA, had a better WHIP over the past 3.5 years, at best this is a push.

 

Like it or not, the health factor counts for something. Being effective doesn't count for much when you can't take the mound.

 

And the only thing Sheets really does better is not walk people. Sheets has a marginally higher k/9, but Z is much harder to hit than Ben. If Zambrano's walk rate was a slow as Sheets', this would be a slam dunk.

[Chocolate Milk]

I like that we aren't including 2003 for some reason.

[XZero771679666304]

I like that we aren't including 2003 for some reason.

 

A convenient omission, isn't it?

[bukie]

I like that we aren't including 2003 for some reason.

 

Apparently the only way to win the argument is to ignore all stats that don't support it, and include only years that support it. He should have merely included 2007, because then it's a slam-dunk argument.

[Ender]

4 years

 

2004

2005

2006

2007

 

How is that omitting anything? ERA+ is a crappy stat no matter what, has nothing to do with this discussion, its bad in every discussion. The only time its even marginally useful is comparing pitchers from different era's.

 

I call it a push, but if you look at those stats and say Zambrano is an advantage you are clearly wearing Cubs glasses.