Lou's shake-up: Guzman and his 3.18 ERA to pen

[ConstableRabbit]

Put Guzman in the pen and call up Marshall, who has been awesome of late.

 

Marshall isn't going to do better than Angel, and is more likely to do worse, while Angel isn't going to get consistent work out of the pen if Piniella continues to use the pen like he has.

 

This isn't a hard concept.

 

What is seemingly hard concept is that we need someone who doesn't suck in the bullpen. Our 5th starter need not be lights out. Guzman has the hard stuff to succeed in the bullpen. If we're not going to make a trade soon, why not give it a shot?

 

Because a good starter is always more valuable than a good reliever.

 

I agree with that. But when our pen is blowing a significant amount of games and we have another starter who could fill in, I think it might be worth trying out.

[Guest]

Obviously Marshall has a good ERA and BAA but his poor K numbers makes me wonder how far his curve has progressed. I know early on in his rehab, he said he wasn't pleased with it - which is why I don't think it's the best idea to replace an already solid 5th starter with Marshall. Plus Marshall, Lilly and Hill are all lefties with very similar stuff.

 

And replacing Guzman in the rotation with Wade Miller or Ryan Dempster is just bad news.

Edited May 19, 2007 by CaliforniaRaisin

[USSoccer]

Obviously Marshall has a good ERA and BAA but his poor K numbers makes me wonder how far his curve has progressed. I know early on in his rehab, he said he wasn't pleased with it - which is why I don't think it's the best idea to replace an already solid 5th starter with Marshall. Plus Marshall, Lilly and Hill are all lefties with very similar stuff.

 

And replacing Guzman in the rotation with Wade Miller or Ryan Dempster is just bad news.

 

For some reason this is what I see happening after Marshall shows that he isn't a ML starter at this point. I see Dempster starting. And we've been down that road before. Is Hendry incapable of learning a lesson?

 

I agree with that. But when our pen is blowing a significant amount of games and we have another starter who could fill in, I think it might be worth trying out.

 

It's a lot easier to find a random reliever than it will be to find a #5 starter with Guzman's stuff and upside.

[abuck1220]

Put Guzman in the pen and call up Marshall, who has been awesome of late.

 

Marshall isn't going to do better than Angel, and is more likely to do worse, while Angel isn't going to get consistent work out of the pen if Piniella continues to use the pen like he has.

 

This isn't a hard concept.

 

What is seemingly hard concept is that we need someone who doesn't suck in the bullpen. Our 5th starter need not be lights out.

 

come on, man, it's a matter of counting.

 

why do we need someone to pitch two good innings a week out of the pen, but we're seemingly don't need someone to throw six good innings as a starter?

[RammyFanny]

Am I the only one who agrees with this move?

 

People here always talk about how to never use sample size as an indicator for anything, and are acting like Guz is a cinch to excell at #5. I love Guz and think he has a bright future, but if you expect him to hold a 3.15 ERA (or whatever it is), you obviously going to be let down. Guz has some pretty nasty stuff in the pen and you'll likely get similar numbers with Marshall over the course of a season as you will with Guz. Along with the fact that Guzman seems to always cramp a little later in games (this is a huge point, but it still is one), I can definately see logic in it. And it's not like he can't jump right back in to #5 if Marshall struggles.

[Warpticon]

Am I the only one who agrees with this move?

 

People here always talk about how to never use sample size as an indicator for anything, and are acting like Guz is a cinch to excell at #5. I love Guz and think he has a bright future, but if you expect him to hold a 3.15 ERA (or whatever it is), you obviously going to be let down. Guz has some pretty nasty stuff in the pen and you'll likely get similar numbers with Marshall over the course of a season as you will with Guz. Along with the fact that Guzman seems to always cramp a little later in games (this is a huge point, but it still is one), I can definately see logic in it. And it's not like he can't jump right back in to #5 if Marshall struggles.

 

And clearly you don't understand the sample size arguments at all.

[USSoccer]

Am I the only one who agrees with this move?

 

People here always talk about how to never use sample size as an indicator for anything, and are acting like Guz is a cinch to excell at #5. I love Guz and think he has a bright future, but if you expect him to hold a 3.15 ERA (or whatever it is), you obviously going to be let down. Guz has some pretty nasty stuff in the pen and you'll likely get similar numbers with Marshall over the course of a season as you will with Guz. Along with the fact that Guzman seems to always cramp a little later in games (this is a huge point, but it still is one), I can definately see logic in it. And it's not like he can't jump right back in to #5 if Marshall struggles.

 

Point #1 That Everyone Is Ignoring: Marshall is no lock to be better, and the odds are that he'll be worse than Guzman. Guzman is a strikeout guy. Marshall is not. Guzman throws hard. Marshall does not.

 

Point #2: Cramping is no damn reason to take a guy and make him a reliever. If the incompetent Cubs trainers can't figure out how to hydrate a guy, they need to be fired. What are they around for if not for this?

 

Point #3: If Marshall sucks for 2-4 starts, that hurts the team, and we are not anywhere near good enough to waste games because Lou can't figure out how to best use his bullpen. This is the same logic that people didn't grasp about Wade Miller wasting 6 games for us. Those 6 games can never be won now. Had Guzman started them, things might look much different. Why waste more games?

[abuck1220]

People here always talk about how to never use sample size as an indicator for anything, and are acting like Guz is a cinch to excell at #5. I love Guz and think he has a bright future, but if you expect him to hold a 3.15 ERA (or whatever it is), you obviously going to be let down. Guz has some pretty nasty stuff in the pen

 

so we can't expect him to continue to perform as he has been as a starter, but it's safe to assume that he'll continue to pitch well out of the pen? that makes no sense at all.

 

and you'll likely get similar numbers with Marshall over the course of a season as you will with Guz.

 

based on....?

 

Along with the fact that Guzman seems to always cramp a little later in games (this is a huge point, but it still is one), I can definately see logic in it.

 

"always" equals, what...twice?

 

And it's not like he can't jump right back in to #5 if Marshall struggles.

 

yeah, no problem at all. seamless transition, i'm sure.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Dempster isn't closer material because even though he gets people out, he doesn't attack them? And move Dempster back to the rotation over Guzman after quite a below mediocre career there when a 5th starter is more valuable than a closer?

 

Just telling you how Lou is thinking based on his comments to the media, especially with SNY the other night.

 

You said "I applaud the move".

 

And i dont buy that a closer is less valuable than a 5th starter. You have to look at the people involved, not the roles they play. If you can get better production out of a closer with just a little drop off in the rotation, then you should go for it.

 

Except it's far from a sure thing that whoever replaces Guzman is going to be anywhere near as effective as he was.

 

Not that this should be the shining example, but since Manuel has been villified, look at what Lieber has been doing as the 5th starter in the Phillies rotation. Lieber has a 2.20 era in 6 starts. Myers has a .96 ERA with 5 saves and 1 win out of the pen.

 

Of course he is, Jon Lieber is a good pitcher. On the other hand, Adam Eaton stays in the rotation and continues to get torched. It was and still is a laughably awful move.

 

If you can get some type of production out of the 5th starter role by a Marshall, a Miller, or even a Dempster, why not do it? At least this way, Lou wont have a stroke, heart attack, aneurism, or end up killing Dempster b/c of the way he is throwing.

 

Except Marshall isn't going to be as good as Guzman(Demspter and Miller would be beyond awful).

 

 

People are making this way harder than it needs to be, and making some terrible arguments in an effort to defend the move.

[David]

Am I the only one who agrees with this move?

 

People here always talk about how to never use sample size as an indicator for anything, and are acting like Guz is a cinch to excell at #5. I love Guz and think he has a bright future, but if you expect him to hold a 3.15 ERA (or whatever it is), you obviously going to be let down. Guz has some pretty nasty stuff in the pen and you'll likely get similar numbers with Marshall over the course of a season as you will with Guz. Along with the fact that Guzman seems to always cramp a little later in games (this is a huge point, but it still is one), I can definately see logic in it. And it's not like he can't jump right back in to #5 if Marshall struggles.

 

Why is that, exactly?

[USSoccer]

Seriously, this is laughable. People are trying to justify this by saying:

 

-Marshall might be just as good as Guzman

-Guzman has cramps, so he should be a reliever

-Our bullpen stinks; we need Guzman there more than we need him starting

 

 

And ignoring:

 

-Marshall probably will be worse than Angel, and will almost certainly not be better.

-Lou is mismanaging his bullpen now as it is.

-They brought up Marmol for depth. Why dump Guzman in the miz too?

-A reliever is far less valuable than a starter.

-Cramps are no reason to make a guy a reliever.

 

 

This is really not that hard. Can't the defenders of this idiocy see that the problem with the pen is just as much Piniella as it is Howry and Eyre, and that Marmol makes Guzman redundant? Can't you grasp that 5-6 IP starting is a ton more important than 2 random innings per week out of the pen? That cramping is so incredibly minor that the fact that it hasn't been addressed is a damning indictment of the training staff?

Edited May 19, 2007 by USSoccer

[VVMattVV]

Am I the only one who agrees with this move?

 

People here always talk about how to never use sample size as an indicator for anything, and are acting like Guz is a cinch to excell at #5. I love Guz and think he has a bright future, but if you expect him to hold a 3.15 ERA (or whatever it is), you obviously going to be let down. Guz has some pretty nasty stuff in the pen and you'll likely get similar numbers with Marshall over the course of a season as you will with Guz. Along with the fact that Guzman seems to always cramp a little later in games (this is a huge point, but it still is one), I can definately see logic in it. And it's not like he can't jump right back in to #5 if Marshall struggles.

 

Because its not based on his small sample size this year. Its based on a solid minor league career and his high ceiling. I don't think anyone expects him to hold down a 3.15 ERA, but I expect him to be far better than Wade Miller and better than Sean Marshall.

[abuck1220]

when wade miller becomes the 5th starter and the cubs lose his first start 9-2, i hope all you people supporting this move aren't calling for miller to get bumped out of the rotation.

[Mephistopheles]

Guzman will be starting again within a month. Marshall (or whoever) will suck.

[anabiono]

i support the move of guz...

 

but it isn't concrete that miller is going to be starting again is it?

 

why not marshall?

 

or a trade?

 

screw miller...as long as he doesn't step back onto the mound again this season, i will be happy

[USSoccer]

Guzman will be starting again within a month. Marshall (or whoever) will suck.

 

But then we'll have wasted a month's worth of starts, and this team isn't good enough for that kind of crap.

[RichHillIsABeast]

Seriously, this is laughable. People are trying to justify this by saying:

 

-Marshall might be just as good as Guzman

-Guzman has cramps, so he should be a reliever

-Our bullpen stinks; we need Guzman there more than we need him starting

 

 

And ignoring:

 

-Marshall probably will be worse than Angel, and will almost certainly not be better.

-Lou is mismanaging his bullpen now as it is.

-They brought up Marmol for depth. Why dump Guzman in the miz too?

-A reliever is far less valuable than a starter.

-Cramps are no reason to make a guy a reliever.

 

 

This is really not that hard. Can't the defenders of this idiocy see that the problem with the pen is just as much Piniella as it is Howry and Eyre, and that Marmol makes Guzman redundant? Can't you grasp that 5-6 IP starting is a ton more important than 2 random innings per week out of the pen? That cramping is so incredibly minor that the fact that it hasn't been addressed is a damning indictment of the training staff?

 

Condescend much?

[Mizzou]

Seriously, this is laughable. People are trying to justify this by saying:

 

-Marshall might be just as good as Guzman

-Guzman has cramps, so he should be a reliever

-Our bullpen stinks; we need Guzman there more than we need him starting

 

 

And ignoring:

 

-Marshall probably will be worse than Angel, and will almost certainly not be better.

-Lou is mismanaging his bullpen now as it is.

-They brought up Marmol for depth. Why dump Guzman in the miz too?

-A reliever is far less valuable than a starter.

-Cramps are no reason to make a guy a reliever.

 

 

This is really not that hard. Can't the defenders of this idiocy see that the problem with the pen is just as much Piniella as it is Howry and Eyre, and that Marmol makes Guzman redundant? Can't you grasp that 5-6 IP starting is a ton more important than 2 random innings per week out of the pen? That cramping is so incredibly minor that the fact that it hasn't been addressed is a damning indictment of the training staff?

 

Condescend much?

You must be new here.

[abuck1220]

boo hoo. if people make terrible arguments, they're going to get torn apart.

[Soul]

Well, it's pretty hard to deny that we *are* desperate for something from the bullpen.

 

I mean what would we prefer Lou do? Sit back and watch us blow 4 run leads every few days?

[RichHillIsABeast]

boo hoo. if people make terrible arguments, they're going to get torn apart.

 

It's not a poor argument at all. Our pen is a joke. Guz isn't a dominant SP. The argument that he's worth more as a starting pitcher b/c he'd throw more innings is ridiculous. You have to actually pitch well in those starts for that argument to be even remotely valid.

 

Gooz has the stuff to be lights out in the pen. He doesn't have the stuff to consistently dominate as a ML starter. If that changeup ever comes back, then fine.

 

Cramps schmamps. Gooz has a very significant injury history. Limiting the number of innings he pitches is a smart thing.

[VVMattVV]

Seriously, this is laughable. People are trying to justify this by saying:

 

-Marshall might be just as good as Guzman

-Guzman has cramps, so he should be a reliever

-Our bullpen stinks; we need Guzman there more than we need him starting

 

 

And ignoring:

 

-Marshall probably will be worse than Angel, and will almost certainly not be better.

-Lou is mismanaging his bullpen now as it is.

-They brought up Marmol for depth. Why dump Guzman in the miz too?

-A reliever is far less valuable than a starter.

-Cramps are no reason to make a guy a reliever.

 

 

This is really not that hard. Can't the defenders of this idiocy see that the problem with the pen is just as much Piniella as it is Howry and Eyre, and that Marmol makes Guzman redundant? Can't you grasp that 5-6 IP starting is a ton more important than 2 random innings per week out of the pen? That cramping is so incredibly minor that the fact that it hasn't been addressed is a damning indictment of the training staff?

 

Should have locked this thread after this post, sums up this situation well.

[Soul]

Seriously, this is laughable. People are trying to justify this by saying:

 

-Marshall might be just as good as Guzman

-Guzman has cramps, so he should be a reliever

-Our bullpen stinks; we need Guzman there more than we need him starting

 

 

And ignoring:

 

-Marshall probably will be worse than Angel, and will almost certainly not be better.

-Lou is mismanaging his bullpen now as it is.

-They brought up Marmol for depth. Why dump Guzman in the miz too?

-A reliever is far less valuable than a starter.

-Cramps are no reason to make a guy a reliever.

 

 

This is really not that hard. Can't the defenders of this idiocy see that the problem with the pen is just as much Piniella as it is Howry and Eyre, and that Marmol makes Guzman redundant? Can't you grasp that 5-6 IP starting is a ton more important than 2 random innings per week out of the pen? That cramping is so incredibly minor that the fact that it hasn't been addressed is a damning indictment of the training staff?

 

Should have locked this thread after this post, sums up this situation well.

 

Not for me it doesn't. Eyre and Howry are simply bad pitchers, not magically made bad by Lou. That's a ridiculous assertion.

 

The bullpen flat out sucks donkey balls, and no it's not because Lou is making them bad.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

It's not a poor argument at all. Our pen is a joke. Guz isn't a dominant SP. The argument that he's worth more as a starting pitcher b/c he'd throw more innings is ridiculous. You have to actually pitch well in those starts for that argument to be even remotely valid.

 

Our pen(especially since we've already added Marmol which makes Guzman redundant) and Guzman are better than you're giving them credit for. Case in point...

 

Gooz has the stuff to be lights out in the pen. He doesn't have the stuff to consistently dominate as a ML starter. If that changeup ever comes back, then fine.

 

Debating the meaning of "dominate" isn't worth it, but Guzman certainly has very good stuff(best of any of our 5 starter options), and it's definitely good enough to have a career as a good major league starter.

 

Cramps schmamps. Gooz has a very significant injury history. Limiting the number of innings he pitches is a smart thing.

 

If Guzman couldn't go 100 pitches without feeling shoulder pain, then fine. But it's just a matter of him drinking water to stay hydrated. It's not like he's risking his career by staying a starter, a la Wood.

[VVMattVV]

boo hoo. if people make terrible arguments, they're going to get torn apart.

 

Guz isn't a dominant SP. .

 

No, he's not dominant. Who's saying he's dominant?

 

The argument that he's worth more as a starting pitcher b/c he'd throw more innings is ridiculous. You have to actually pitch well in those starts for that argument to be even remotely valid.

 

So he's more valuable if he's throwing less innings? He has pitched well so far. As a starter he has a 3.52 ERA with a 13/5 K/BB ratio.