Cubs Offense

[Banghart]

File this under the catergory of too early to know for sure, but doesn't the cub offense as a whole feel a lot like the Cubs offense of the past several seasons. The team still does not draw a lot of walks, and is dependent on stringing together lots of hits together to make things happen. The result of this being big innings like we saw against the Brewers yesterday, and scores of 1 and 2 like in the series against the Reds.

 

I really don't have expectations one way or the other for the Cubs this year, it is only disappointing when you do 1999, 2004, etc. However, the talk around baseball, excluding some on this board, was that the Cubs were going to be an offensive juggernaut. I questioned this at the time because I felt like I had seen Cubs' offenses like this one in the past. Lots of power throughout the lineup combined with low OBP. The result is a streaky offense that generally winds up being below average. This is a one case where I hope I am wrong, and with my track record of predicting baseball I probably will. (Thinks back to last October-There is no way the Cards will make it out of the first round of the playoffs with their pitching.)

Edited April 7, 2007 by Banghart

[forbez18]

I think the Cubs line-up is deeper then any line-up they have put out there in years, and that is what I see being the difference maker. Soriano, Lee, and Ramirez could very well be the best (or at least close to the best) in their position. Murton can take a walk or let Soriano at least steal a base, and then have Lee or Ramirez drive him in. In past years that would be all we would have to count on. Now we have Jones, Floyd, Barret who are solid against the right pitchers. Then followed by small ball but adequate hitters like Derosa (Cedeno), Izturis (Theriot). Looking at the line-up you can't say they are all about power, but they should be able to put up some numbers.

[RynoRules]

I think you may be correct, however, I am hoping that, like the 04' lineup, we can make up for it with increased depth and better hitters overall.

 

But who knows...

[CubmanPi]

I think the Cubs line-up is deeper then any line-up they have put out there in years, and that is what I see being the difference maker. Soriano, Lee, and Ramirez could very well be the best (or at least close to the best) in their position. Murton can take a walk or let Soriano at least steal a base, and then have Lee or Ramirez drive him in. In past years that would be all we would have to count on. Now we have Jones, Floyd, Barret who are solid against the right pitchers. Then followed by small ball but adequate hitters like Derosa (Cedeno), Izturis (Theriot). Looking at the line-up you can't say they are all about power, but they should be able to put up some numbers.

You mean Babe Derosa? Bat him 4th!!

[BigbadB]

I think a lot of the pitchers they have faced so far are pretty good control pitchers, and aren't going to walk a lot of guys, so they are free swinging a little bit more because they aren't going to draw many walks against these guys.

[Keener98]

I think this offense is going to be just fine. When it gets warmer and the ball starts flying out they could be dangerous. The last 2 games they are starting to heat up and Lee and Ramirez have started out on fire. They are doing most of their damage right now without Soriano who I think is probably pressing, but should calm down as the season gets goin.

[jjgman21]

I think a lot of the pitchers they have faced so far are pretty good control pitchers, and aren't going to walk a lot of guys, so they are free swinging a little bit more because they aren't going to draw many walks against these guys.

 

if Sheets qualified, he probably would have lead the league in BB/9 last year. as it was, the top of the list was

 

Lieber

Oswalt

Maddux

Bush

Carpenter

Capuano

Webb

Smoltz

Harang

Lowe (2.27)

 

Aroyo just missed the top list as well (2.39)

 

the Cubs will likely face these pitchers 12 or so times over the first three weeks of the season leading many to come to unfounded conclusions about what this lineup will do vis a vis the base on balls.

[Banedon]

File this under the catergory of too early to know for sure, but doesn't the cub offense as a whole feel a lot like the Cubs offense of the past several seasons. The team still does not draw a lot of walks, and is dependent on stringing together lots of hits together to make things happen. The result of this being big innings like we saw against the Brewers yesterday, and scores of 1 and 2 like in the series against the Reds.

 

I really don't have expectations one way or the other for the Cubs this year, it is only disappointing when you do 1999, 2004, etc. However, the talk around baseball, excluding some on this board, was that the Cubs were going to be an offensive juggernaut. I questioned this at the time because I felt like I had seen Cubs' offenses like this one in the past. Lots of power throughout the lineup combined with low OBP. The result is a streaky offense that generally winds up being below average. This is a one case where I hope I am wrong, and with my track record of predicting baseball I probably will. (Thinks back to last October-There is no way the Cards will make it out of the first round of the playoffs with their pitching.)

 

They may not draw a ton of walks, but they aren't swinging at the first pitch every at bat either. Sheets threw 100 pitches by the time he left in the 6th. That's a big difference from last year when every pitcher was "Cy-fill-in-the-blank".

[Fro]

Yeah, they've been taking a lot more pitches than last year... the only guy really hacking is Soriano.

 

Every bat doesn't have to go to a full count.

[Ivy Walls]

I still see Piniella toying with the lineup with Jones, Murton, Izturis batting second and it could come back to DeRosa, who by the way is a real surprise as to his authority to hit.

 

Cubs appear more inclined to make pitchers pitch and it is something to build on. But five games is way too small, let us look at this at 10-20-54 games.

 

I still see the Cubs trading Jones, whether it is for a bona fide RF or bringing up Pie to man RF that remains to be determined. Pie could be a real solid #2 hitter behind Soriano which puts two power-speed guys in the lineup.

 

HOWEVER...regardless the Cubs prospects fall upon pitching. IF IF IF Cubs get 200 IP from Zambrano, Hill and Lilly and get Marquis or Miller to provide 150 IP and IF IF IF Prior or Guzman take over the 5th spot and actually adds impact than the Cubs are Aces in the playoff.

[Butterscup1679666578]

I still see Piniella toying with the lineup with Jones, Murton, Izturis batting second and it could come back to DeRosa, who by the way is a real surprise as to his authority to hit.

 

I agree. I think it'll be until at least mid-May or maybe even later until we get a set #2 hitter. I think Lou is going to see what Jones, MM, Izzy, and DeRosa can do in that spot for awhile before picking someone for the spot.

[CubColtPacer]

I still see Piniella toying with the lineup with Jones, Murton, Izturis batting second and it could come back to DeRosa, who by the way is a real surprise as to his authority to hit.

 

I agree. I think it'll be until at least mid-May or maybe even later until we get a set #2 hitter. I think Lou is going to see what Jones, MM, Izzy, and DeRosa can do in that spot for awhile before picking someone for the spot.

 

I don't think we'll ever see a set hitter for that spot. Lou doesn't seem to like guys who cannot drive the ball well in his 6 or 7 spots. That list includes Izturis, Blanco, Theriot. It fits from his quotes earlier that people are sometimes suited for "either the 2 or the 8 spot". I think from Lou's usage of him that Murton has graduated from that distinction.

 

Now, this means this. If only one of those 3 players are in the game, then that hitter will almost always be the number 8 hitter. If two of them are (like today) than players like Theriot or Izturis move up to number 2.

 

With this setup,

Murton will get the most starts at the #2 spot for the season

Jones will get the second most

______=major dropoff here

Izturis will probably get the third most

Theriot the fourth most (only because he won't start that many games even though he'll play a lot).

 

This lineup shuffling of who will be in the #2 will probably stay the entire season based on who else is in the lineup. I don't see DeRosa being a candidate right now because he is behind both Murton and Jones, and on days when Izturis or Theriot is #2 DeRosa will be needed for his pop at the 6 or 7 slot.

 

This is not exactly what I would do, but I think this is what Lou will do based on his usage patterns so far.

[soccer10k]

File this under the catergory of too early to know for sure, but doesn't the cub offense as a whole feel a lot like the Cubs offense of the past several seasons. The team still does not draw a lot of walks, and is dependent on stringing together lots of hits together to make things happen. The result of this being big innings like we saw against the Brewers yesterday, and scores of 1 and 2 like in the series against the Reds.

 

I really don't have expectations one way or the other for the Cubs this year, it is only disappointing when you do 1999, 2004, etc. However, the talk around baseball, excluding some on this board, was that the Cubs were going to be an offensive juggernaut. I questioned this at the time because I felt like I had seen Cubs' offenses like this one in the past. Lots of power throughout the lineup combined with low OBP. The result is a streaky offense that generally winds up being below average. This is a one case where I hope I am wrong, and with my track record of predicting baseball I probably will. (Thinks back to last October-There is no way the Cards will make it out of the first round of the playoffs with their pitching.)

 

They may not draw a ton of walks, but they aren't swinging at the first pitch every at bat either. Sheets threw 100 pitches by the time he left in the 6th. That's a big difference from last year when every pitcher was "Cy-fill-in-the-blank".

 

Especially considering he only threw 104 pitches in his CG against the Dodgers on Opening Day.

[sunnydoo]

The Cub hitters have looked at on avg. 138 pitches per game this year or between 15 and 16 per inning. They have looked at more pitches than our pitchers have thrown (although there is 2 less innings thrown than hit).

 

From 16th in walks and 14th in Ks, we have progressed to 6th and 12th so far this year. This team isnt going to do much better on the Ks, b/c we just arent built that way. The walk % is more encouraging, but it is way way to early to tell.

 

Something interesting i noted...in the 3 games the Cubs have won, they have more ground ball outs than fly balls. In the 2 losses, it was reversed. But way to early to tell anything yet.

[Fred Hornkohl]

It's been mentioned that the CUBS are seeing more pitches this year. Five games is not a whole lot, and as others have mentioned, facing good pitchers changes the dynamic....... but through the first five games......

 

CUBS are seeing 3.49 pitches per plate appearance...... compared to 3.68 last year and 3.61 in '05

 

Go CUBS !!

[TheDude]

File this under the catergory of too early to know for sure, but doesn't the cub offense as a whole feel a lot like the Cubs offense of the past several seasons.

No, it doesn't. The last couple of seasons has been Lee or Ramirez and bust. This season is going to be far from it.

[10man]

I think the Cubs line-up is deeper then any line-up they have put out there in years, and that is what I see being the difference maker. Soriano, Lee, and Ramirez could very well be the best (or at least close to the best) in their position. Murton can take a walk or let Soriano at least steal a base, and then have Lee or Ramirez drive him in. In past years that would be all we would have to count on. Now we have Jones, Floyd, Barret who are solid against the right pitchers. Then followed by small ball but adequate hitters like Derosa (Cedeno), Izturis (Theriot). Looking at the line-up you can't say they are all about power, but they should be able to put up some numbers.

You mean Babe Derosa? Bat him 4th!!

Finally, a Cub fan who thinks Derosa is a Babe. :lol:

[Banghart]

Some point well taken so far. I issued the disclaimer about it being way too early to tell right off the bat, but that being said I think the point I've been trying to make is some what missed. The offense is better than the pathetic level it has been at in 2005 and 2006, but the point I was trying to make is that this team still needs to pitch well above average to be a contender. The talk I constantly hear on TV, radio, and some fans is that the Cubs are a top tier offensive ball club in the NL. I still don't see it from this bunch.

 

The team does have more depth. The addition of Cliff Floyd was a big boost for the overall depth. If he can remain healthy he can provide serious pop from the left handed side. That said we still have a ton of question marks or just bad players. Shortstop has been an offensive blackhole for the Cubs for the past four, five seasons. I can't believe I honestly miss the days of Ricky Gutierrez. Our second baseman is coming off a career year in one of the most, if not the most, hitter friendly ballpark in baseball. These can be made up for the power through out the lineup, but the team is still not built to get on base consistently.

 

I think the Cubs will do fine this year because I think the pitching is better than we've been told, but that elusive 90 win mark still seems a bit out of reach at this point without a lot of breaks.

[BigbadB]

I don't think the way this team is constructed that they HAVE to be an absolute top OBP team. They will definitely be a top team in SLG, which is the other major offensive stat for a team.

 

When you have 3 guys in the line up that can provide 40+ HR power (Lee, Ramirez, Soriano), and 3 or 4 more guys who provide 25+ HR power (Barrett/Blanco, Murton/Floyd, Jones), you are going to score runs. It helps to have guys on the bases when the doubles and home runs come, but I think they will do that enough to be one of the top scoring teams.

 

So far, I like what I see. I think Piniella will pick and choose the pitchers that he will want the hitters to be more patient with. Today is a pretty good example of that. He's going with an all right handed attack with very quality bats on the bench for the late innings against RH relief pitching. He really isn't sacrificing against Capuano with that line up either. And that's where I think the difference is than in previous years.

[Banghart]

I don't think the way this team is constructed that they HAVE to be an absolute top OBP team. They will definitely be a top team in SLG, which is the other major offensive stat for a team.

I think this sums up nicely what I was trying to get at though. This team doesn't have to be a top OBP team, but I am not sure it isn't going to be a bottom tier one again. We saw what teams that led the league in HRs and SLG look like if they have a low OBP. The Cubs did that in 2004 when the team was tops in HRs and near the top in SLG, but still managed to be only middle of the pack in runs scored. The point I was trying to make is no that the Cubs offense was going to be as bad as last year, but rather that it was going to be the same kind of offense we had in 2004. That team required top tier pitching and it still didn't manage to win 90 games.

 

The way this team was built supposedly was to be an offensive juggernaut, one of if not the best in the league. From what I have seen so far, this team is going to be a lot like the team in 2004, and if we don't get the same caliber of pitching this year will be yet another year since winning 90 games.

[Fred Hornkohl]

We've still got a ways to go with this offense......

 

04/02 - 04/10      AB    R    H   2b   3b   HR   TB  RBI   BB   SO     BA    OBP    SLG    OPS
CUBS              280   31   72   16    1    4  102   28   20   53  0.257  0.313  0.364  0.677

 

CUBS are on a pace to win 61 games this year..... compared to 66 last year and 79 in '05

CUBS are on a pace to score 628 runs this year..... compared to 716 last year and 703 in '05

CUBS are on a pace to hit 81 homeruns this year..... compared to 166 last year and 194 in '05

CUBS are on a pace to draw 405 walks this year..... compared to 395 last year and 419 in '05

CUBS are on a pace to strike out 1073 times this year..... compared to 928 last year and 920 in '05

[rynefan]

Not liking those "potential" future stats at all. I hate using weather as an excuse, but if they are affected by it more than other teams, hopefully it will resolve itself, soon. They're saying it'll be in the 50's on Friday.

[TheDude]

Not liking those "potential" future stats at all.

 

Well, if really enjoy on pace stats at this point in the season, A-Rod is on pace to hit 121 HR for an 81-81 Yankees, and Felix Hernandez is on pace for a 0.00 ERA and 297 Strikeouts for a 97-65 Mariners team.

[Soul]

Offense should be better than previous few years.

 

Lee will be here.

Murton will play more games than ever, and should still be improving.

Derosa > Neifi/Hairston

Soriano >>> Pierre

 

 

And quite possibly the best thing: '07 bench >>>>>>> '05-'06 bench, in terms of hitting prowress (especially power).

 

It's got to show up eventually.

[soccer10k]

Not liking those "potential" future stats at all.

 

Well, if really enjoy on pace stats at this point in the season, A-Rod is on pace to hit 121 HR for an 81-81 Yankees, and Felix Hernandez is on pace for a 0.00 ERA and 297 Strikeouts for a 97-65 Mariners team.

 

I agree. I always love looking at pace stats early in the year. Another one, the Washington Nationals are on pace to go 18-144 this year.