Big Z will leave

[USSoccer]

There not a chance in hell Hendry trades Z for prospects. Hendry has gambled his career on winning now. Acquiring prospects is the last thing on his mind. I also fail to see why Z would give us a hometown discount. He surely knows this is the payday of his lifetime and he has stated he wants Zito's deal and has backed up his demand with a threat to leave if he doesn't sign before opening day. I don't blame Z for putting the screws to Hendry. Z is holding all the cards and he knows it.

 

Weaver is more than a prospect, though.

[RichHillIsABeast]

remember when we were all happy because z dropped boras as his agent?

 

:lol:

[Danny82]

There not a chance in hell Hendry trades Z for prospects. Hendry has gambled his career on winning now. Acquiring prospects is the last thing on his mind. I also fail to see why Z would give us a hometown discount. He surely knows this is the payday of his lifetime and he has stated he wants Zito's deal and has backed up his demand with a threat to leave if he doesn't sign before opening day. I don't blame Z for putting the screws to Hendry. Z is holding all the cards and he knows it.

 

Weaver is more than a prospect, though.

 

So is Kendrick.

[Roast]

remember when we were all happy because z dropped boras as his agent?

 

:lol:

 

Hahaha

[Sammy Sofa]

There not a chance in hell Hendry trades Z for prospects. Hendry has gambled his career on winning now. Acquiring prospects is the last thing on his mind. I also fail to see why Z would give us a hometown discount. He surely knows this is the payday of his lifetime and he has stated he wants Zito's deal and has backed up his demand with a threat to leave if he doesn't sign before opening day. I don't blame Z for putting the screws to Hendry. Z is holding all the cards and he knows it.

 

Weaver is more than a prospect, though.

 

So is Kendrick.

 

Exactly. People are acting like if Z is moved we won't we any real return in results player-wise for another year or more. Z can get you top tier guys, either young or established, that can play now, solve multiple problems and play (hopefully) every day.

[CuseCubFan69]

There not a chance in hell Hendry trades Z for prospects. Hendry has gambled his career on winning now. Acquiring prospects is the last thing on his mind. I also fail to see why Z would give us a hometown discount. He surely knows this is the payday of his lifetime and he has stated he wants Zito's deal and has backed up his demand with a threat to leave if he doesn't sign before opening day. I don't blame Z for putting the screws to Hendry. Z is holding all the cards and he knows it.

 

Weaver is more than a prospect, though.

 

So is Kendrick.

 

Exactly. People are acting like if Z is moved we won't we any real return in results player-wise for another year or more. Z can get you top tier guys, either young or established, that can play now, solve multiple problems and play (hopefully) every day.

 

True but does Hendry see a different type of talent than we do? He has never traded an impact player in his tenure in Chicago.

[USSoccer]

It bears repeating that a healthy Mark Prior would really change the dynamic with this situation.

 

For that matter, a healthy and effective Angel Guzman would, too.

[C.C.]

There not a chance in hell Hendry trades Z for prospects. Hendry has gambled his career on winning now. Acquiring prospects is the last thing on his mind. I also fail to see why Z would give us a hometown discount. He surely knows this is the payday of his lifetime and he has stated he wants Zito's deal and has backed up his demand with a threat to leave if he doesn't sign before opening day. I don't blame Z for putting the screws to Hendry. Z is holding all the cards and he knows it.

 

Weaver is more than a prospect, though.

 

So is Kendrick.

 

Exactly. People are acting like if Z is moved we won't we any real return in results player-wise for another year or more. Z can get you top tier guys, either young or established, that can play now, solve multiple problems and play (hopefully) every day.

 

True but does Hendry see a different type of talent than we do? He has never traded an impact player in his tenure in Chicago.

 

Large market teams shouldn't.

[Sammy Sofa]

It bears repeating that a healthy Mark Prior would really change the dynamic with this situation.

 

For that matter, a healthy and effective Angel Guzman would, too.

 

Bingo. And Hill still looking at least something like 2nd half Hill. And Miller reverting back to a competitive form. And Lilly adjusting well to the NL as AL pitchers often do. I'm not saying some, if any, of these guys can "replace" Z straight up, but if a couple of these "what if's" happen it makes not having him far from a catastrophe.

[Sammy Sofa]

There not a chance in hell Hendry trades Z for prospects. Hendry has gambled his career on winning now. Acquiring prospects is the last thing on his mind. I also fail to see why Z would give us a hometown discount. He surely knows this is the payday of his lifetime and he has stated he wants Zito's deal and has backed up his demand with a threat to leave if he doesn't sign before opening day. I don't blame Z for putting the screws to Hendry. Z is holding all the cards and he knows it.

 

Weaver is more than a prospect, though.

 

So is Kendrick.

 

Exactly. People are acting like if Z is moved we won't we any real return in results player-wise for another year or more. Z can get you top tier guys, either young or established, that can play now, solve multiple problems and play (hopefully) every day.

 

True but does Hendry see a different type of talent than we do? He has never traded an impact player in his tenure in Chicago.

 

Large market teams shouldn't.

 

That's a fallacy. Trading an impact player smartly can work for any team, especially the big market ones that ideally have other positions already taken care of and can focus on using that impact player to fix multiple problems.

[C.C.]

There not a chance in hell Hendry trades Z for prospects. Hendry has gambled his career on winning now. Acquiring prospects is the last thing on his mind. I also fail to see why Z would give us a hometown discount. He surely knows this is the payday of his lifetime and he has stated he wants Zito's deal and has backed up his demand with a threat to leave if he doesn't sign before opening day. I don't blame Z for putting the screws to Hendry. Z is holding all the cards and he knows it.

 

Weaver is more than a prospect, though.

 

So is Kendrick.

 

Exactly. People are acting like if Z is moved we won't we any real return in results player-wise for another year or more. Z can get you top tier guys, either young or established, that can play now, solve multiple problems and play (hopefully) every day.

 

True but does Hendry see a different type of talent than we do? He has never traded an impact player in his tenure in Chicago.

 

Large market teams shouldn't.

 

That's a fallacy. Trading an impact player smartly can work for any team, especially the big market ones that ideally have other positions already taken care of and can focus on using that impact player to fix multiple problems.

 

I should've said most large market Team don't. I can't remeber the last time NY or Boston teams traded away thier star player entering their prime.

[Magnetic Curses]

trading z would be stupid, sign the guy to whatever he wants and let's move on.

[Backtobanks]

It bears repeating that a healthy Mark Prior would really change the dynamic with this situation.

 

For that matter, a healthy and effective Angel Guzman would, too.

 

Bingo. And Hill still looking at least something like 2nd half Hill. And Miller reverting back to a competitive form. And Lilly adjusting well to the NL as AL pitchers often do. I'm not saying some, if any, of these guys can "replace" Z straight up, but if a couple of these "what if's" happen it makes not having him far from a catastrophe.

 

A healthy Prior can replace Zambrano immediately. The kind of numbers Prior put up before his string of injuries had ace of the staff written all over him. Of course, a healthy Prior plus Zambrano is a much better option.

[baseball7897]

Weaver and Kendrick are not going to be traded.

[BigbadB]

The Angels seem like the perfect trade partner. Arte Moreno and Carlos Zambrano is like a match made in heaven. Brandon Wood is exactly what the Cubs need more than anything.

 

Wood will be 22 in a few weeks and hasn't played above AA ball yet, but in 2005, the guy had 98 XBH's in 130 games. Last year, he had 71 XBH's in 118 games. The guy can mash.

 

He's got A-Rod type production at SS. If the Cubs could get Wood and a top flight pitching prospect as well, someone like Adenhart, I'd do it in a heartbeat.

 

This is assuming Prior is going to be healthy.

 

If the Cubs had a guy like Brandon Wood at SS, which pushes Izturis into a bench role, this offense would have the capability to make bad pitchers look good.

[TruffleShuffle]

yeah just let him go and take the extra draft picks... after all, when we stockpiled high picks in 2002 we ended up with the sweet haul of Bobby Brownlie, Luke Hagerty, Chadd Blasko, Matt Clanton, Brian Dopirak and Justin Jones. And damned if that wasn't hitting the jackpot!

 

and no, the Cubs will not get Wood and Adenhart for Zambrano.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Another point to note in the Johnson comparison is that he had a bad first half before netting three top prospects for Seattle. Whoever traded for him knew they were potentially only gettting him for a half a season, yet still there were teams willing to give up packages of top prospects for a pitcher having a down year.

 

Also, its not like losing Johnson (then Griffey and ARod) destroyed the franchise. Yes, losing Z would hurt, but it would not be the end of the world for the Cubs. I personally hope they would hang on to him until the allstar break even if unsigned to see where the team is. I cannot see any way thet Hendry would trade him before then.

 

The trouble with waiting is that the Cubs are unlikely to be out of it come July. It will be impossible from a PR perspective to deal Z in July if you're within 4 games of 1st. You deal him now, you can weather the storm of criticism if you end up contending.

 

Call Bill Stoneman. Ask for Weaver, Kendrick and Adenhart.

Call the Yankees and ask for Hughes, Sanchez + Tabata. Let them know the Angels are considering the other package.

 

I don't think either team would bite, but if I didn't get the packages I'd simply hang on to Z and take my chances.

 

Define "take my chances"

 

1. Go to arby and let him walk after 2007 or

2. Take my chances that I can get him to sign a long term near Zito deal

Let me be more precise...

 

I'd be working two separate paths at the current time.

 

1a) I would be working aggressively to get him signed to a hometown discount contract in the range of 5 years, $80M

 

1b) I would be working the phones with the teams that had a set of three premier prospects to get a trade that I was convinced improved the overall talent level of the organization

 

If neither of those paths bore fruit, I would complete the season with Z on the staff. If, in the unlikely event that the Cubs are completely out of it in July, I'd look to trade Z. I don't think that's going to happen, though. So next October I would:

 

2) work aggressively to get Z signed to a hometown discount deal

 

3) If that didn't work, I would offer him arbitration and take the draft picks when he signs elsewhere

 

And hope he doesn't get hurt. :?

[USSoccer]

 

and no, the Cubs will not get Wood and Adenhart for Zambrano.

 

Because the Angels won't deal their top guys, or because you think Hendry will go after the toolsiest prospects in their system?

[Mizzou]

So if the Cubs don't sign him to an extension before this season, Zambrano won't even consider signing one after the season? That's stupid.

[Mephistopheles]

i wouldnt say he wouldnt consider one but i would say he wouldnt sign before we lose exclusive negotiation rights.

[CuseCubFan69]

yeah just let him go and take the extra draft picks... after all, when we stockpiled high picks in 2002 we ended up with the sweet haul of Bobby Brownlie, Luke Hagerty, Chadd Blasko, Matt Clanton, Brian Dopirak and Justin Jones. And damned if that wasn't hitting the jackpot!

 

and no, the Cubs will not get Wood and Adenhart for Zambrano.

 

I consider Z a better pitcher than Beckett, what did the Marlins get for him?

[RichHillIsABeast]

yeah just let him go and take the extra draft picks... after all, when we stockpiled high picks in 2002 we ended up with the sweet haul of Bobby Brownlie, Luke Hagerty, Chadd Blasko, Matt Clanton, Brian Dopirak and Justin Jones. And damned if that wasn't hitting the jackpot!

 

and no, the Cubs will not get Wood and Adenhart for Zambrano.

 

We have Wilken now.

 

I'd rather have more advanced prospects via trade than draft picks, but the picks wouldn't be wasted with Wilken at the helm.

[cheapseats]

I haven't read all 11 pages yet, but I have yet to see anyone mention Z's projections.

 

PECOTA projects Z to be considerably less effective this year than he was the previous 3 years. Furthermore, PECOTA shows a severe decline over the next 5 years.

 

Note that his similarity score in PECOTA is 25. That's a very low score, and it indicates that PECOTA has had a hard time finding pitchers that a good comparables for Z. Maybe he is so unique that he'll hold up and buck the projections.

 

Plus, Will Carroll's system rates Z as a high injury risk this year. Again, maybe Z really is some mythical creature who will manage to beat the prediction, but we should all begin mentally preparing for Carlos to spend some time on the DL this year.

 

I'd do Weaver and Wood for Z in a second.

[BigbadB]

It will be interesting to see how hard they abuse Carlos in 2007 given the risk of losing him to free agency, too.

[Soul]

It will be interesting to see how hard they abuse Carlos in 2007 given the risk of losing him to free agency, too.

 

 

That's a real good point.