Soriano's place in the batting order

[UK1679666180]

It's my view that leadoff should be especially good at OBP, obvious table-setting spot. I forgot how to retrieve the leadoff OBP average, but I know for sure that NL-average leadoff OBP is considerably lower than .340. A good way to not make outs is to hit a HR. But many teams put fast, low-HR guys at leadoff, while putting their best hitters (for OBP as well as for power) in the 3-5 spots.

 

If you were Piniella would you put more of an emphasis on OBP for the 8 spot in the order with Soriano hitting lead-off compared to a traditional leadoff hitter?

[rawaction]

Career situational stats in lead-off...:

 

Lead-Off (2052AB)

.291/.340/.544/.884

 

==========

 

I don't have the 2006 numbers, but over the previous 5 years the NL OBP average was in the .328 range. .340 is not a low OBP.

 

It's my view that leadoff should be especially good at OBP, obvious table-setting spot. I forgot how to retrieve the leadoff OBP average, but I know for sure that NL-average leadoff OBP is considerably lower than .340. A good way to not make outs is to hit a HR. But many teams put fast, low-HR guys at leadoff, while putting their best hitters (for OBP as well as for power) in the 3-5 spots.

 

Just because .328 is average for a leadoff hitter doesn't make it a good idea to get that out of that spot. As much as we complained about Dusty, I would say over 1/2 of ML managers would put a speedy basestealer #1 over a guy like Murton. Again, that doesn't make it a good idea. .340 should be the bottom of acceptability from a leadoff hitter's OBP.

[UK1679666180]

Hypothetical:

 

If the Cubs signed Lugo, how would you construct the line-up with Soriano at the top? The reason why I add this is b/c Izturis fits the bill of a player who would be more productive with an increase in OBP rather slg and negates any possible shuffling as he's best off hitting under any line-up (unless it has a less productive hitter than Izturis).

 

Soriano

Lugo

Lee

Ramirez

Jones

Barrett

Murton

Derosa.

 

I would either put Murton 2nd with Lugo 8th/Derosa 7th. Or Murton 8th and Derosa 7th.

 

The ability to get runners on base with Soriano's XBH potential and ability to drive runners in can't be ignored simply b/c he's hitting leadoff.

Edited December 27, 2006 by UK

[rawaction]

It's my view that leadoff should be especially good at OBP, obvious table-setting spot. I forgot how to retrieve the leadoff OBP average, but I know for sure that NL-average leadoff OBP is considerably lower than .340. A good way to not make outs is to hit a HR. But many teams put fast, low-HR guys at leadoff, while putting their best hitters (for OBP as well as for power) in the 3-5 spots.

 

If you were Piniella would you put more of an emphasis on OBP for the 8 spot in the order with Soriano hitting lead-off compared to a traditional leadoff hitter?

 

I don't know. Of course, I wouldn't have an OBP albatross in the lineup (Izturis). He can only hit 2nd or 8th. I'd rather have him hit 8th and screw up Soriano's RBI chances than to hit 2nd and screw up Lee and Ramirez. If Izturis can guarantee even a .320 OBP, I'd settle for him hitting 2nd and Derosa 8th. But at the .280-.300 crap he's been putting up....Izzy is a liability.

[frostwyrm]

Career situational stats in lead-off...:

 

Lead-Off (2052AB)

.291/.340/.544/.884

 

==========

 

I don't have the 2006 numbers, but over the previous 5 years the NL OBP average was in the .328 range. .340 is not a low OBP.

 

It's my view that leadoff should be especially good at OBP, obvious table-setting spot. I forgot how to retrieve the leadoff OBP average, but I know for sure that NL-average leadoff OBP is considerably lower than .340. A good way to not make outs is to hit a HR. But many teams put fast, low-HR guys at leadoff, while putting their best hitters (for OBP as well as for power) in the 3-5 spots.

 

Just because .328 is average for a leadoff hitter doesn't make it a good idea to get that out of that spot. As much as we complained about Dusty, I would say over 1/2 of ML managers would put a speedy basestealer #1 over a guy like Murton. Again, that doesn't make it a good idea. .340 should be the bottom of acceptability from a leadoff hitter's OBP.

 

.328 is low. League averages include benchwarmers making spot starts or serving as injury replacements, and also rookies playing for rebuilding or non-contending teams, and crappy vets playing for cash-strapped small market teams. Soriano's numbers should only be compared to those of everyday leadoff hitters, preferrably the ones with big salaries.

[goonys evil twin]

Career situational stats in lead-off...:

 

Lead-Off (2052AB)

.291/.340/.544/.884

 

==========

 

I don't have the 2006 numbers, but over the previous 5 years the NL OBP average was in the .328 range. .340 is not a low OBP.

 

It's my view that leadoff should be especially good at OBP, obvious table-setting spot. I forgot how to retrieve the leadoff OBP average, but I know for sure that NL-average leadoff OBP is considerably lower than .340. A good way to not make outs is to hit a HR. But many teams put fast, low-HR guys at leadoff, while putting their best hitters (for OBP as well as for power) in the 3-5 spots.

 

Just because .328 is average for a leadoff hitter doesn't make it a good idea to get that out of that spot. As much as we complained about Dusty, I would say over 1/2 of ML managers would put a speedy basestealer #1 over a guy like Murton. Again, that doesn't make it a good idea. .340 should be the bottom of acceptability from a leadoff hitter's OBP.

 

Especially since the goal should not be averageness. .341 was the 17th best leadoff OBP in baseball last year. You had to beat .350 to be top 10. Only 8 teams make the playoffs every year, which leads one to believe it's not a good idea to strive, or settle for, averageness. You should be disappointed in a .340 OBP out of leadoff. Just like you should be disappointed in a 4.50 ERA and an 81-81 record.

 

Yeah, it's kind of acceptable. And his SLG definitely means his overall production will be better than most. But a .340 OBP is definitely at the very bottom of what you'd want at leadoff, and .350-.360 should be what you get.

[rawaction]

Hypothetical:

 

If the Cubs signed Lugo, how would you construct the line-up with Soriano at the top? The reason why I add this is b/c Izturis fits the bill of a player who would be more productive with an increase in OBP rather slg and negates any possible shuffling as he's best off hitting under any line-up (unless it has a less productive hitter than Izturis).

 

Soriano

Lugo

Lee

Ramirez

Jones

Barrett

Murton

Derosa.

 

I would either put Murton 2nd with Lugo 8th/Derosa 7th. Or Murton 8th and Derosa 7th.

 

The ability to get runners on base with Soriano's XBH potential and ability to drive runners in can't be ignored simply b/c he's hitting leadoff.

 

Lugo 8th wouldn't be a bad idea in that scenario, because he steals bases. He could steal and conceivably be at 3rd (sac bunt) with Soriano up.

[UK1679666180]

 

Lugo 8th wouldn't be a bad idea in that scenario, because he steals bases. He could steal and conceivably be at 3rd (sac bunt) with Soriano up.

 

Doesn't that take away Soriano's strength as a hitter over hitters like Juan Pierre? Pierre can maintain a similar avg as Soriano, he just can't drive them in from 1st.

 

If you want to take advantage of speed, hit Lugo 7th. Lugo gets on steals 2B, BB the 8th hitter, P bunts them over for Soriano.

 

Obviously, situation determines when to steal. I think OBP has to be a key factor with the 8th spot with someone like Soriano.

 

I would adjust my line-up accordingly.

 

Soriano

Murton

Lee

Ramirez

Jones

Barrett

Lugo

Derosa.

[rawaction]

 

Lugo 8th wouldn't be a bad idea in that scenario, because he steals bases. He could steal and conceivably be at 3rd (sac bunt) with Soriano up.

 

Doesn't that take away Soriano's strength as a hitter over hitters like Juan Pierre? Pierre can maintain a similar avg as Soriano, he just can't drive them in from 1st.

 

If you want to take advantage of speed, hit Lugo 7th. Lugo gets on steals 2B, BB the 8th hitter, P bunts them over for Soriano.

 

Obviously, situation determines when to steal. I think OBP has to be a key factor with the 8th spot with someone like Soriano.

 

I would adjust my line-up accordingly.

 

Soriano

Murton

Lee

Ramirez

Jones

Barrett

Lugo

Derosa.

 

Yes, that is a very good idea. The key is to have several guys that can get on base. It really doesn't matter how you construct the lineup if nobody is a liability offensively. 2-7-8 are all interchangeable. Even Barrett and Soriano can be moved around the order.

[Abe Frohman]

2B/SS Theriot

LF Murton

1B Lee

3B Ramirez

RF Soriano

CF Jones

CA Barrett

SS/2B Izturis/DeRosa

 

I like your lineup. We can only hope that a better CF option emerges, but in my book, you have the lineup set as I would. The problems are that we have to assume DeRosa will get a more prominent role than platooning with Izturis.

 

I think DeRosa is a nice player, and it is obvious that he will be playing a lot more than the above lineup would suggest. He will surely be the starting Second Baseman for the Cubs - I just am a Theriot fan, and would love to see him work out at 2B. DeRosa is so versitile that he could play so many positions and still get 300+ ABs without being a starter.

 

I don't think that Theriot would be a upper level defender at SS, and I like Izturis there - as long as the Cubs are fielding enough offense to be able to afford him in the 8 spot. I could see a rotation of Theriot/Izturis at SS, Theriot/DeRosa at 2B, and DeRosa/Murton/Jones in the OF.

[tkenm356]

I don't have the 2006 numbers

 

Something you don't have, but is very interesting that I forgot to mention....

 

Soriano's OBP last year (647 total AB): .351

 

Soriano's OBP last year from the lead-off spot (541AB): .368

[craig]

Just because .328 is average for a leadoff hitter doesn't make it a good idea to get that out of that spot. ...

 

Especially since the goal should not be averageness. .341 was the 17th best leadoff OBP in baseball last year. You had to beat .350 to be top 10. .... You should be disappointed in a .340 OBP out of leadoff. Just like you should be disappointed in a ...an 81-81 record.

 

Yeah, it's kind of acceptable. And his SLG definitely means his overall production will be better than most. But a .340 OBP is definitely at the very bottom of what you'd want at leadoff, and .350-.360 should be what you get.

 

Sure, I agree with all that. But, we know that Soriano is going to bat leadoff. It's seemed to me that with Soriano, the largest complaint about him has always been his OBP.

 

If the worst thing about his game is still average, and other parts are well above average (power, OPS, baserunning, arm...), being average in one aspect but above average in others still gets you beyond 81-81.

 

And, of course, Soriano did come in int he .350-.360 OBP zone last year, which is what you wanted to be in the upper eight. So it's not clear that even in his worst characteristic, that he won't still be an advantage player.

 

Abe was interested in Theriot at leadoff. He might be OK there too. But, it's not like he projects to OBP any better than Soriano, and probably worse. (Given his career IsoD, he'd need to hit around .280 or better to make .340 OBP, and that's not that easy when you don't get (m)any hits via HR.)

 

Obviously we'd like to be above average at every aspect of every player's game. But, we know that's not going to happen.

 

If we're average or below at too many, it will neutralize those areas and players who are above average and settle you at .500 (or worse). But, I think we do have at least a chance to have some real assets, well above average. Soriano overall at leadoff (thanks to power), Aram, Lee, Murton/Floyd/Jones, Barrett, I think we have a good chance to be above average, perhaps significantly so, at C, 1B, 3B, LF, and RF. I think Z is likely to be well above average. Hill has at least a chance, and perhaps even Lilly or Prior might end up being above average. The bullpen has a chance to be above average.

 

We'll see how many of those spots actually stay healthy and produce above average. But I'm pretty confident several of them will. The only spot where I'm pretty certain we'll get below-average production from is SS, and even there it's not clear that with defense considered that it will be much below average. (If Izturis posts a .670 OPS with a .315 OBP, and plays among the top 3rd of SS's defensively, the net position wouldn't be a serious drag.)

 

Obviously we've got a lot of places with a chance to perform well below average. Marquis, Lilly, even Hill, certainly the Miller/Marshall spot, Dempster, SS, DeRosa, CF, and whatever positions that might get injured. We may have more liabilities than assets once guys actually play and the injuries actually play their part.

 

But there's at least a chance that we'll get average or close from the worst spots, well above average at a bunch of spots, and there will be enough well-above-averages to make the composite team well above 81-81.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

As far as why Soriano walked more last year, I think it has a lot to do with the fact Soriano is or was the best hitter on the Nats team. He was the biggest threat to the opposing pitcher and team, therefore he was pitched around to limit the damage he could do.

 

It's crystal clear to me that Soriano was pitched around in 2006. Aside from Fons the Nats lineup sucked big time.

 

Soriano 2006 splits:

 

Runners on: 212 AB, 42 BB, .274/.396/.566

Bases Empty: 435 AB, 25 BB, .278./.326/.556

 

 

Fons' walk rate was enormously higher with runners on. Coincidence? I think not.

 

That's hardly exclusive to Soriano. Murton had a near .060 difference last year, Pujols had a .063 difference last year , those guys are regarded as patient hitters.

[frostwyrm]

As far as why Soriano walked more last year, I think it has a lot to do with the fact Soriano is or was the best hitter on the Nats team. He was the biggest threat to the opposing pitcher and team, therefore he was pitched around to limit the damage he could do.

 

It's crystal clear to me that Soriano was pitched around in 2006. Aside from Fons the Nats lineup sucked big time.

 

Soriano 2006 splits:

 

Runners on: 212 AB, 42 BB, .274/.396/.566

Bases Empty: 435 AB, 25 BB, .278./.326/.556

 

 

Fons' walk rate was enormously higher with runners on. Coincidence? I think not.

 

That's hardly exclusive to Soriano. Murton had a near .060 difference last year, Pujols had a .063 difference last year , those guys are regarded as patient hitters.

 

Soriano's walk rate was particularly high with RISP:

 

117 AB, 36 BB, .231/.411/.462

 

He only got 67 BB all year and over half of them came in RISP situations, which were rather scarce for him. His RISP ISoD was 0.180, with bases empty it was only 0.048. Maybe I'm off base here, but it really looks to me like people were pitching around him.

[TB_11]

Showing any splits about his performance at various spots in the batting order glosses over the big picture: Soriano is a low OBP, high SLG hitter. Placing him at the top of the order means less opportunities for Derrek and Ramirez, and for Soriano, to drive in runs.

 

That is only true if the other options were higher OBP guys. Murton is, but you could just as easily insert him in the 2 hole. DeRosa might be, but he

 

The key to not screwing over Lee and Ramirez will be finding decent OBP out of the 2 spot next year.

 

Putting Soriano at leadoff also gives Lee and Ramirez less opportunities to score runs, as it removes a power hitter who will drive in those two more than others.

[BigSlick]

I'd like Soriano to hit 2nd. There is a precedent for players of this caliber hitting #2. Sandberg hit 2 for the Cubs for most of his career, and was at least the 2nd best offensive player on all his teams. The Piniella Mariners hit Griffey #2 coming up and then did the same with Arod, with Griffey moving to 3rd.

 

I'd love to have DeRosa able to leadoff (if he hits like he did last year, he can be a good leadoff guy).

 

Derosa

Soriano

Lee

Ramirez

Murton/Barrett/Jones (really no preference on the order)

Izturis

 

I haven't really read all of this thread so I don't know if this has been addressed yet, but many harcore nerd stat guys second putting your best hitter at 2. Mainly for one reason, he gets more plate appearances that way.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Murton obviously should be hitting in the top 2, but who else would we rather have at the top of the order? Theriot? He's hardly a sure thing and isn't going to start anyway. Jones? Izturis? Pie? DeRosa? None of those guys are going to vary significantly in OBP from Soriano, and if anything Soriano has a chance to be much better than them. Plus, Soriano is a significantly better hitter in the leadoff spot, I think that's where he should go.