Expectations

[CubColtPacer]

When we are talking about the strength of the team, there are a lot of terms thrown around about different players-from above average to terrible-of course, those terms mean different things for each person. So, I thought it would be interesting if people would post 4 possible things: their expectation for each person, what they would consider over-performing from this person, what they would consider under-performing, and for players who they feel need to justify their contracts, what numbers they need to get to to be worth their contract. I'm only going to use OPS and ERA here (because I don't have a great deal of time at the moment) but feel free to expand on that.

 

Barrett- Expected-840, over-880, under-790

Lee- Expected-940, over-1020, under-850

DeRosa-Expected-750, over-810, under-700, contract-750

Izturis-Expected-660, over-710, under-600

Ramirez-Expected-890, over-930, under-850

Murton-Expected-820, over-850, under-760

Jones-Expected-790, over-830, under-745

Soriano-Expected-870, over-920, under-815

 

Zambrano-Expected-3.35, over-3.00, under-3.70

Hill-Expected-3.80, over-3.30, under-4.40

Lilly-Expected-4.15, over-3.70, under-4.70, contract-4.2

Marquis-Expected-4.40, over-4.00, under-4.80, contract-4.5

Prior/Miller-Expected-4.25, over-3.50, under-5.00

 

Anyone else want to give it a try on what they expect out of these players?

[Bull]

I'd have to think that if Marquis really underachieved he could put up somewhere in the neighborhood of a 6.02 ERA...but that's just a number I pulled out of the air. No statistical analysis to back it up.

[goonys evil twin]

Barrett- Expected-830, over-880, under-790

Lee- Expected-925, over-1000, under-890

DeRosa-Expected-740, over-800, under-700, contract-750

Izturis-Expected-625, over-700, under-600

Ramirez-Expected-915, over-1000, under-875

Murton-Expected-830, over-875, under-790

Jones-Expected-790, over-830, under-750

Soriano-Expected-880, over-950, under-815, contract-950

Pie-710, over-750, under-675 (if Jones is gone and he plays)

 

Zambrano-Expected-3.10, over-2.75, under-3.75

Hill-Expected-3.95, over-3.50, under-4.60

Lilly-Expected-4.25, over-3.99, under-4.70, contract-4.00

Marquis-Expected-4.95, over-4.00, under-4.96, contract-4.5

Prior-Expected-3.85, over-3.00, under-4.50 (If he pitches, I expect great results, the question is IF)

Miller-Expected-4.00, over-3.50, under-4.75 (Unlike Prior, I would not be surprised to see him pitch, but not do well)

 

 

I went through this pretty quickly, and don't have much confidence in any of my "expected" numbers.

[UK1679666180]

I have them scoring 795 runs and allowing 772 runs. They'll likely have a poor scoring variation on offense and a good one as far as pitching. Probably be slightly below their pythag. record and finish at 85 wins.

 

Obviously, how they settle the OF will impact this as well as Prior.

[Soul]

In my non-stat supported mindset, I've got the Cubs hovering somewhere from 5 over to 5 under .500

 

It's too early for me to start pushing my opinion, though. Too much can happen. I'll need to see who actually reports to ST healthy and ready to go, and who didn't bother to prepare for the season (I wish I didn't have to say that, but with this club it's a factor).

[BeerHere]

So much depends on injuries. If Big Z gets hurt that'll kill the rotation. But, as the team stands right now the regular lineup looks something like this:

 

Rotation

Z

Lilly

Marquis

Hill

Prior/Miller/Other

 

Lineup

RF Soriano

LF Murton

1B Lee

3B Ramirez

C Barrett

CF Jones

2B DeRosa

SS Izzy

 

Five games above/below .500. If the combination of Prior or Miller is healthy and pitching well the entire year this team could sniff 90 wins IMO. If Hill continues to improve, Lilly and Marquis somehow both sit above .500, Wood dominates as closer, Izzy gets moved for a better offensive option, and pigs learn to fly this team could dominate.

[UMFan83]

My expectations really quickly:

 

(Low/Expected/High)

Barrett: (800/820/845)

Lee: (900/940/1020)

DeRosa: (680/740/760)

Izturis: (620/680/715)

Ramirez: (860/905/1000)

Soriano: (820/865/910)

Jones: (750/810/840)

Murton: (810/830/850)

 

Zambrano: (2.95/3.20/3.65)

Hill: (3.40/3.90/4.30)

Lilly: (3.90/4.30/4.60)

Marquis: (4.50/5.00/5.50)

Miller: (4.20/4.45/4.85)

Prior (if he were to start 25 games): (3.60/4.00/4.40)

[UBlink]

There are lots of new faces in the clubhouse, so a lot will depend on chemistry [tab][tab] :wink: .[tab]

[Ding Dong Johnson]

I expect everyone to exceed their career totals. I'm quite sure I'll be disappointed at season's end yet again.

[FergieJ31]

There are lots of new faces in the clubhouse, so a lot will depend on chemistry [tab][tab] :wink: .[tab]

 

Chemistry and gamers and .. and clutchiness and stuff :wink:

 

btw nice avatar UBlink, I've heard it conjectured that Black-Scholes is the most-computed mathematical formula in the history of mankind

[UMFan83]

Almost forgot:

 

Cubs as a whole:

BA: .266/.270/.273

OBP: .316/.325/.335 (high end is if the team really clicks and the protection in the lineup causes a lot of pitchers to pitch around the sluggers)

SLG: .427/.440/.446

HR: 180/190/200

R: 730/750/780

Wins: 74/79/83

 

I don't feel like doing pitching right now.

[oldstyle81]

Almost forgot:

 

Cubs as a whole:

BA: .266/.270/.273

OBP: .316/.325/.335 (high end is if the team really clicks and the protection in the lineup causes a lot of pitchers to pitch around the sluggers)

SLG: .427/.440/.446

HR: 180/190/200

R: 730/750/780

Wins: 74/79/83

 

I don't feel like doing pitching right now.

 

There is no way outside big injuries that the cubs will finish only 8 games better than they did last year.

[goonys evil twin]

post 4 possible things: their expectation for each person, what they would consider over-performing from this person, what they would consider under-performing,

Ramirez-Expected-890, over-930, under-850

 

Ramirez: (860/905/1000)

 

I'm wondering why both of you are expecting sub 900 OPS out of Ramirez, and consider 930 or 905 as over-performance. He's coming off 3 straight years of 900 plus, averaging 930. I know he's been on a slight decline overall, but that was mostly about the slow start to 2006. He'll turn 29 next year. I'd say I would be somewhat surprised if he was below 900 this season. And I definitely would not characterize 905 or 930 as overperformance. That's what he should do. Below 900 is possible, but it would be a major disappointment.

[UMFan83]

Almost forgot:

 

Cubs as a whole:

BA: .266/.270/.273

OBP: .316/.325/.335 (high end is if the team really clicks and the protection in the lineup causes a lot of pitchers to pitch around the sluggers)

SLG: .427/.440/.446

HR: 180/190/200

R: 730/750/780

Wins: 74/79/83

 

I don't feel like doing pitching right now.

 

There is no way outside big injuries that the cubs will finish only 8 games better than they did last year.

 

Agree to disagree, the pitching is terrible, offense mildly improved. Lee will help of course.

[oldstyle81]

Almost forgot:

 

Cubs as a whole:

BA: .266/.270/.273

OBP: .316/.325/.335 (high end is if the team really clicks and the protection in the lineup causes a lot of pitchers to pitch around the sluggers)

SLG: .427/.440/.446

HR: 180/190/200

R: 730/750/780

Wins: 74/79/83

 

I don't feel like doing pitching right now.

 

There is no way outside big injuries that the cubs will finish only 8 games better than they did last year.

 

Agree to disagree, the pitching is terrible, offense mildly improved. Lee will help of course.

 

The pitching isint the best in the MLB but it is by far not terrible.

[goonys evil twin]

The pitching isint the best in the MLB but it is by far not terrible.

 

I don't know about by far. It's the same staff that started 2006, minus Maddux and plus Marquis.

 

I'd say the pitching, as usual, has a wide range of possibilities. And terrible is quite possible. There's no guarantee Lilly or Marquis will be any better than people they are replacing, and last year's staff was terrible.

[Shavo]

I expect Marquis to win the Cy Young.

[Backtobanks]

Almost forgot:

 

Cubs as a whole:

BA: .266/.270/.273

OBP: .316/.325/.335 (high end is if the team really clicks and the protection in the lineup causes a lot of pitchers to pitch around the sluggers)

SLG: .427/.440/.446

HR: 180/190/200

R: 730/750/780

Wins: 74/79/83

 

I don't feel like doing pitching right now.

 

There is no way outside big injuries that the cubs will finish only 8 games better than they did last year.

 

Agree to disagree, the pitching is terrible, offense mildly improved. Lee will help of course.

 

Agree to disagree with you on this one. The starting pitching should be improved over Zambrano and 4 AA pitchers. If (and it's a big if) Prior returns to health, it could be an excellent starting rotation. I think the bullpen is one of the strongest in baseball, especially if the starters consistently pitch into the 6th or 7th inning. A full season of Hill certainly should be an improvement over half a season of Hill. A full season of Lee automatically improves the offense, let alone Soriano instead of Pierre. If the Cubs sign Floyd, the bench would be definitely stronger with Ward, Floyd/Murton, and Theriot. There's still a few moves to make, but I would think this is a team that should win 83+ games.

[oldstyle81]

The pitching isint the best in the MLB but it is by far not terrible.

 

I don't know about by far. It's the same staff that started 2006, minus Maddux and plus Marquis.

 

I'd say the pitching, as usual, has a wide range of possibilities. And terrible is quite possible. There's no guarantee Lilly or Marquis will be any better than people they are replacing, and last year's staff was terrible.

 

Great is quite possible as well, especially since i expect Lillys numbers to go down seeing he dosent have to face high powered offenses in the AL east anymore

 

The big wild cards are wade miller and of course Prior. If Prior can gain any type of form he had in 2003, this team will have good pitching

 

Hell who knows, maybe a change of scenery will help marquis and he will pitch a lot better than 2006.

[NCCubFan]

If Hill continues to improve, Lilly and Marquis somehow both sit above .500, Wood dominates as closer, Izzy gets moved for a better offensive option, and pigs learn to fly this team could dominate.

:pigfly:

[jjgman21]

Almost forgot:

 

Cubs as a whole:

BA: .266/.270/.273

OBP: .316/.325/.335 (high end is if the team really clicks and the protection in the lineup causes a lot of pitchers to pitch around the sluggers)

SLG: .427/.440/.446

HR: 180/190/200

R: 730/750/780

Wins: 74/79/83

 

I don't feel like doing pitching right now.

 

re: the bold. that is a common conception around here, and it just doesn't hold water. I don't expect the Cubs to be a great OBP team, but this is just blatantly pessimistic.

 

the Cubs team OBP last year was .319. let's look at position by position and see how we got there.

 

C - .341

RF - .337

CF - .333

LF - .346

SS - .275

3B - .340

2B - .326

1B - .337

 

assuming Jacque and you don't let pessimism get the best of you, there isn't a single position that could reasonably be predicted to drop by more than 10-15 points due to anything but injury. on the upside, the Cubs can reasonably be expected to see the following improvements

 

LF - .020

SS - .020 (as much as you may detest Izturis, a .295 is reasonable)

3B - .015

1B - .040

 

there's also the nine hole. while unpredictable, the Cubs last year were .221, 11th in the NL. the Cubs will run out the two best hitting pitchers in the game, and another very good one when Prior is healthy. Ward and Theriot should certainly be an improvement over Neifi and Freddie too. so you can reasonably expect a 10-20 point bump out of the nine hole as well.

 

another area where OBP will improve, at least one must hope, is the idiocity of Dusty Baker is gone. look at OBP by lineup order in 2005.

 

1 - .329

2 - .319

3 - .377

4 - .349

5 - .301

6 - .365

7 - .303

8 - .288

 

just flip flopping the 2 and 6 obp translates into what, about 50 additional baserunners per year?

 

 

you put these things together, all of them reasonable expectations of what will happen, a .330-.335 expected OBP is more appropriate. DeRosa and Soriano show their improvement last year was not flukish, and this team is top 5 in NL OBP. add the obvious addition of power, and the offense is much more improved than many are giving credit for. not as good as I would like to see with the payroll, but it very reasonably could end up being a top 5 NL offense.

 

(not directly at you UM) I think this is the fourth time I've presented such arguments about what I think is reasonable to expect out of this team. I've never seen any replies. if you don't agree that I am being reasonable, please let me know where I am going astray or at least give a breakdown of what you predict and how it translates into what you expect out of the 2007 Cubs.

[jjgman21]

The pitching isint the best in the MLB but it is by far not terrible.

 

I don't know about by far. It's the same staff that started 2006, minus Maddux and plus Marquis.

 

I'd say the pitching, as usual, has a wide range of possibilities. And terrible is quite possible. There's no guarantee Lilly or Marquis will be any better than people they are replacing, and last year's staff was terrible.

 

Z

Maddux

Rusch

Marshall

Williams.

 

no, even if your worst expectations are fulfilled, and barring injury of course, I doubt the staff is any where near the staff the Cubs started 2006 with. under worst case scenerio

 

Z=Z

Lilly

Hill>>>Rusch

Marquis=Marshall

Prior/Miller/Guz/Marmol/Mateo/Marshall/Ryu>>>>>Williams

 

the assesment for what transpired over the year would be about the same.

[Guest]

If Hill continues to improve, Lilly and Marquis somehow both sit above .500, Wood dominates as closer, Izzy gets moved for a better offensive option, and pigs learn to fly this team could dominate.

:pigfly:

 

depends if the wind is blowing in or out.

[Fred Hornkohl]

 

another area where OBP will improve, at least one must hope, is the idiocity of Dusty Baker is gone. look at OBP by lineup order in 2005.

 

1 - .329

2 - .319

3 - .377

4 - .349

5 - .301

6 - .365

7 - .303

8 - .288

 

just flip flopping the 2 and 6 obp translates into what, about 50 additional baserunners per year?

 

 

 

These data are from 2006, not 2005.

 

Swapping out the #2 hitter for #6 will result in

 

Marginal PA (713-663) 50 times Marginal OBP (.361-.319) .041 equals Additional Baserunners 2.05

 

Hardly the bump you were expecting.

[goonys evil twin]

The pitching isint the best in the MLB but it is by far not terrible.

 

I don't know about by far. It's the same staff that started 2006, minus Maddux and plus Marquis.

 

I'd say the pitching, as usual, has a wide range of possibilities. And terrible is quite possible. There's no guarantee Lilly or Marquis will be any better than people they are replacing, and last year's staff was terrible.

 

Z

Maddux

Rusch

Marshall

Williams.

 

no, even if your worst expectations are fulfilled, and barring injury of course, I doubt the staff is any where near the staff the Cubs started 2006 with. under worst case scenerio

 

Z=Z

Lilly

Hill>>>Rusch

Marquis=Marshall

Prior/Miller/Guz/Marmol/Mateo/Marshall/Ryu>>>>>Williams

 

the assesment for what transpired over the year would be about the same.

 

Jerome Williams did not start 2006 in the rotation. His first 3 appearances was out of the pen. Regardless, what I meant was that they have the same bodies to choose from, minus Maddux and plus Lilly and Marquis. It's quite possible Lilly would be worse than Maddux, and Marquis will be at his worst, with both Miller and Prior incapable of providing help. I wouldn't predict that myself, but it's possible. The fact is it was terrible last year, and they haven't added anybody great, so, it could be terrible again.