Optimism vs. Pessimism (Hendry's Moves and The 2007 Cubs)

[danesoz]

There has been a lot of optimisim and pessimism in many of the different threads and I thought it would be more interesting to focus it to one thread.

In general, Mr. Hendry is doing exactly what we wanted him to do. Find people. Now how good of job is he doing it in this very mediocre market? I like DeRosa, Soriano, and Lilly I can live with since Schmit wanted to be on the west coast. Marquis? I don't know. It would be great if he could post a winning record, but this is probably the first move of Hendry's I did not like this offseason. And I think that is saying a lot with what we have already gotten. If I were to grade him I'd give him a B. He kept Ramirez and Wood (Thank God) and gotten some power and pitching in Soriano and Lilly

The line-up doesn't look the best in the NL, but we'll have Lee hopefully for the year. It would be nice if Prior could return for a number 2 starter, but I think we have better starting pitching already than what we did at the start of last year. (Saying that Hill can keep up his last 2 month of the season performance he did last year) It's a decent rotation.

I don't know about many of the posters but I'm optimistic. Hendry has made the moves with a strong chance of more to come. So what does everyone else think?

[Rob]

Very good signings:

 

Aramis

Wood

Miller

 

Bad money/years but decent players:

 

Soriano

Lilly

DeRosa

 

Meh signings:

 

Blanco

Ward

 

Horrible signings:

 

Marquis

[Electron Blue]

Very good signings:

 

Aramis

Wood

Miller

 

Bad money/years but decent players:

 

Soriano

Lilly

DeRosa

 

Meh signings:

 

Blanco

Ward

 

Horrible signings:

 

Marquis

 

I agree on all but one: Marquis should go under "Bad money/years but Meh" signings.

[RichHillIsABeast]

I like every offseason move Hendry has made. I'm not too crazy about the money Soriano received, but the Ramirez hometown discount makes that a wash, IMO.

 

DeRosa, Blanco, and Ward are very nice moves. I think DeRosa will really shock Cub fans in a good way. Blanco is just awesome. I love his game calling, defense, and the occaisional offensive outburst. Ward is a much better bat than Mabry or any of the Dusty crew.

 

Miller could pan out big for us depending on how much arm strength he regains in the offseason.

 

Marquis isn't a bad signing. He's pretty up and down from one year to the next, which makes me worry about the rumored 3 year deal, but Rothschild should be able to get him into form.

 

Lilly is going to put up a sub 4.00 ERA this season. I don't think Wrigley will be a problem for him if he can keep the ball down when the wind is blowing out. When the wind is blowing in, he's going to go deep into the game if he just pitches to contact.

 

I'm pretty excited about this next season. We have the potential to be very good even if Wood and Prior don't pitch one inning combined. If they do show up reasonably healthy for the bulk of the season, we're in for a great season.

[Balsa]

I give Hendry a B, mostly because he found got good to great players in a dry market.

[Rob]

If I were giving Hendry a grade, I'd give him a C-.

 

A good chunk of that is because it appears all of these contracts are backloaded, so any incoming management group is going to have a very hard time adding any quality talent for the next 3-4 years... and if the incoming group wants to cut salary... we'd be boned.

 

This team is essentially the team you're going to see for the next few years, barring a nice trade. And I think we can all agree this isn't exactly a powerhouse of a team.

[CubinNY]

Marquis isn't a bad signing. He's pretty up and down from one year to the next, which makes me worry about the rumored 3 year deal, but Rothschild should be able to get him into form.

 

Lilly is going to put up a sub 4.00 ERA this season. I don't think Wrigley will be a problem for him if he can keep the ball down when the wind is blowing out. When the wind is blowing in, he's going to go deep into the game if he just pitches to contact.

 

What makes you say this?

 

Rothschild hasn't gotten anyone into form on a consistent basis since he's been in Chicago. Dave Duncan and Leo Mazzoni couldn't get him into form, but Rothschild can?

 

Lilly hasn't had a sub 4.00 ERA since 2002 when he only started 16 games. He's a fly ball pitcher in NL Central.

 

The Cubs will have to have everything go right for them for a chance to win the NL Central. Right now they look like a .500 ball club.

[CubFanPhilly]

Very good signings:

 

Aramis (the best of Hendry's career)

Wood

Miller

Ward (considering the role)

 

Bad money/years but decent players:

Soriano (I don't like it, but if the Cubs were hell bent on going worst-to-first it had to be done)

Lilly

 

Meh signings:

DeRosa

Blanco

 

Horrible signings:

Marquis (perhaps the worst of Hendry's career)

 

 

Prediction: The Marquis and Lilly combined signings will turn out to be a bigger waste of resources than Soriano's contract will.

[RichHillIsABeast]

Marquis isn't a bad signing. He's pretty up and down from one year to the next, which makes me worry about the rumored 3 year deal, but Rothschild should be able to get him into form.

 

Lilly is going to put up a sub 4.00 ERA this season. I don't think Wrigley will be a problem for him if he can keep the ball down when the wind is blowing out. When the wind is blowing in, he's going to go deep into the game if he just pitches to contact.

 

What makes you say this?

 

Rothschild hasn't gotten anyone into form on a consistent basis since he's been in Chicago. Dave Duncan and Leo Mazzoni couldn't get him into form, but Rothschild can?

 

Lilly hasn't had a sub 4.00 ERA since 2002 when he only started 16 games. He's a fly ball pitcher in NL Central.

 

The Cubs will have to have everything go right for them for a chance to win the NL Central. Right now they look like a .500 ball club.

 

Howry's been throwing a curve that he never had (after how many ML seasons?). Clement did pretty well under Rothschild. Z has turned into an ace. Prior was a stud, before non-pitching injuries derailed his career. Larry's record is just fine and if it wasn't for the Giles and Hawpe, we'd all be worshiping idols constructed in his image.

 

Duncan missed several mechanical flaws that Marquis supposedly had fixed in the beginning of one offseason. So much for Duncan being a pitching genius.

 

Mazzoni is overrated. I certainly wouldn't give him any credit for guys like Maddux.

 

There's nothing wrong with being a flyball pitcher in Wrigley. It's actually a good thing when the wind is blowing in. Just pitch to contact, keep your pitch count down, and chew up some innings. When the wind is out, keep the ball down. Not all flyball pitchers get chewed up in bandboxes. You just have to change your approach. I think Lilly can.

 

Lilly posted those numbers in the toughest division in baseball in a hitter's park. He's moving to the NL. No DH. No murderer's row.

 

I disagree with your opinion on next year's record. If Hill and Z get hit by a truck we'll finish below .500, but that's not happening.

[Sammy Sofa]

Wait, wait, wait...with all that their respective teams have been pitching-wise, Mazzone and Duncan are "overrated" and Rothschild is the one that'll make it work where they failed? I'll give you that some of those pitchers were going to be good no matter what and that Rothschild had a rough go of it under Dusty, but to think he's going to have huge success where both Duncan and Mazzone didn't is both incredibly optimistic and very unlikely.

[EastonBlues22]

Duncan missed several mechanical flaws that Marquis supposedly had fixed in the beginning of one offseason. So much for Duncan being a pitching genius.

You really think that any capable MLB pitching coach is going to overlook "several mechanical flaws" in a guy he's worked with for three years and who's currently struggling badly? You believe that Marquis went down to Florida in the offseason, worked with some guru, and *poof* all his "mechanical flaws" are now fixed and he's in top form for next year?

 

Mazzoni is overrated. I certainly wouldn't give him any credit for guys like Maddux.

Mazzone and Duncan are two of the most respected pitching coaches in the league. Slamming both of them doesn't support your take on what happened with Marquis...it just undermines the credibility of your argument because people are going to assume that you're viewing things in a less than objective manner.

 

There's nothing wrong with being a flyball pitcher in Wrigley. It's actually a good thing when the wind is blowing in. Just pitch to contact, keep your pitch count down, and chew up some innings. When the wind is out, keep the ball down. Not all flyball pitchers get chewed up in bandboxes. You just have to change your approach. I think Lilly can.

Turning a FB pitcher into a GB pitcher isn't really as easy as "changing your approach" for that day... People tend to be up in the zone either because of lack of control, or because of the mechanics of their throwing motion. Neither is really subject to a "quick fix" for the day. With that said, I also think that Lilly will be a fine #3 for you guys.

[BigbadB]

I won't evaluate this offseason completely until the offseason is over. I think there is still time to make it a very successful offseason. If Hendry is done, I won't be fond of this offseason at all. But, I don't believe he's done.

 

Evaluating what's been done so far:

 

Soriano: I like this move, but I wanted Drew. Getting either or both are best case scenarios in this market, but I can't complain about Soriano.

 

Lilly: It makes me real nervous that he's a fly ball pitcher. But, I like Lilly more than I like Zito. Zito and Hill are too much alike, and Lilly gives you a little bit of a different look from the left side.

 

DeRosa: He wasn't on my radar at all in what I felt was a very strong 2b class. Lugo, Loretta, Durham, Giles are all guys that come to mind immediately ahead of DeRosa. But, DeRosa might surprise me. Yes, he put up solid numbers given more at bats in the friendly hitting confines of Arlington, but the NL Central is loaded with hitter friendly parks. If he matches what he did last year, he's a pretty good pick up. His versatility adds to his value if the Cubs were to grab someone else to man 2b later. In other words, I'm willing to see how he pans out at 2b, as he definitely has the potential to put up solid production. As a bench player, we couldn't have done much better than DeRosa.

 

Marquis: I sure hope someone knows something I don't. Well, I know someone knows stuff I don't. But, looking at his year to year stats, he looks like a high profile prospect that never put it altogether. I hope "someone" knows what they are doing here.

 

Ramirez: I can't stress enough how important this signing was. If they couldn't retain Ramirez, I don't think there is anything Hendry could do to salvage this offseason.

 

Wood: Thanks Kerry! Looking forward to see how you do out of the bullpen and hope that your starting days are not over.

 

Miller: Thanks Wade! The bargain basement price of a guy who has the potential of locking down a starting job all year is awesome. If he does well and there is plenty of depth at SP, Miller is the kind of guy that could net something REALLY good at the trade deadline.

 

Cotts: More depth in the bullpen. I think someone has to go, but nothing wrong with having plenty of options in the pen.

 

Ward: The Cubs have had weaknesses in just about every aspect of the team the last few years. None was more obvious than the bench. Ward certainly is a huge improvement over what they've had.

 

Piniella: I wasn't in favor of this signing, but I do like his intensity. I do like what he's inspired Hendry to do this offseason. Dusty must be pissed. I'm going to give him a chance to show that I was wrong to want Bochy.

 

This offseason, I wanted Lugo, Drew, Matsuzaka, Schmidt. We didn't get any of them. But, I think they've done some good things with the team overall. They didn't just assume Prior and Miller would be healthy and the kids would be enough depth if they weren't. They didn't just sit on the bullpen. They've improved the bench and they've kept the most important piece to the offense and added another key component in Soriano. I think Hendry will still move Jones and a bullpen guy, and bring in another starting bat (CF) and maybe another bench guy.

 

Right now, I'd give him a "B". If he gets Church and gets a quality return for Jones, I'll likely move my grade up to an "A".

[danesoz]

Agreed about Church. That is the next big deal Hendry could pull off. However, I have to say I am intrigued with the possiblility about Floyd. I know he is a injury concern, but if we can't manage Church I'd like to see Floyd possibly being platooned in the outfield. The guy can still hit for power. I wouldn't mind seeing a one year deal for him if all else fails.

[BigbadB]

Agreed about Church. That is the next big deal Hendry could pull off. However, I have to say I am intrigued with the possiblility about Floyd. I know he is a injury concern, but if we can't manage Church I'd like to see Floyd possibly being platooned in the outfield. The guy can still hit for power. I wouldn't mind seeing a one year deal for him if all else fails.

 

Who plays CF?

[RichHillIsABeast]

Duncan missed several mechanical flaws that Marquis supposedly had fixed in the beginning of one offseason. So much for Duncan being a pitching genius.

You really think that any capable MLB pitching coach is going to overlook "several mechanical flaws" in a guy he's worked with for three years and who's currently struggling badly? You believe that Marquis went down to Florida in the offseason, worked with some guru, and *poof* all his "mechanical flaws" are now fixed and he's in top form for next year?

 

Mazzoni is overrated. I certainly wouldn't give him any credit for guys like Maddux.

Mazzone and Duncan are two of the most respected pitching coaches in the league. Slamming both of them doesn't support your take on what happened with Marquis...it just undermines the credibility of your argument because people are going to assume that you're viewing things in a less than objective manner.

 

There's nothing wrong with being a flyball pitcher in Wrigley. It's actually a good thing when the wind is blowing in. Just pitch to contact, keep your pitch count down, and chew up some innings. When the wind is out, keep the ball down. Not all flyball pitchers get chewed up in bandboxes. You just have to change your approach. I think Lilly can.

Turning a FB pitcher into a GB pitcher isn't really as easy as "changing your approach" for that day... People tend to be up in the zone either because of lack of control, or because of the mechanics of their throwing motion. Neither is really subject to a "quick fix" for the day. With that said, I also think that Lilly will be a fine #3 for you guys.

 

I guess we'll see how Marquis pitches next season. That will solve our mechanics argument. Time will tell.

 

I never slammed Mazzoni or your precious Duncan. I said Mazzoni is overrated, which is true. Most ppl think he is the god of pitching coaches. He's not. He had a lot of talent to work with and a guy like Maddux, who was a Cy Young caliber pitcher before he even worked with Leo. Maddux helped Marshall a lot. I don't doubt that a lot of the success of Atlanta's pitchers was due to him and not Mazzoni. I don't doubt that Mazzoni is a great PC, but he's still overrated.

 

I never said we were going to turn Lilly (a flyball pitcher) into a groundball pitcher. I said flyball pitchers aren't necessarily roadkill in Wrigley b/c of the wind. Will flyball pitchers get beat down if they get the ball up with the wind blowing out? Anyone can get taken yard in Wrigley if they get the ball up. The difference between a GB pitcher and a FB pitcher is not primarily keeping the ball down or elevating. It's the movement on your stuff.

[danesoz]

I guess who I would have play CF depends on situation. I would only like to have Floyd as a 4th OF. If we unfortunatly had to keep Jones he would play CF with Floyd as backup. I would have Floyd start unless he proved he could play 140 games this year. Still I don't know if he would accept a 4th OF position.

If we got Church and dumped Jones it would still be the situation. I just think floyd could be a threat off the bench. And if he could play everyday, I think I would dump Jones and play Floyd in right and Soriano in center. Floyd, when healthy in 05 had more HRs better OBP and SLG than Jones last year.

[oldstyle81]

The NL central is crap, there is no reason to wait till next year when we can take advantage of a weak division and get into the playoffs. All you need is get in to the playoffs to have a chance, just ask the Cards

 

i like our chances throwing Zambrano and Hill out there and if Prior is anywhere close to 2003, we are going to be difficult to beat in a 7 game series.

[CoolHandLuke]

I like every offseason move Hendry has made. I'm not too crazy about the money Soriano received, but the Ramirez hometown discount makes that a wash, IMO.

 

DeRosa, Blanco, and Ward are very nice moves. I think DeRosa will really shock Cub fans in a good way. Blanco is just awesome. I love his game calling, defense, and the occaisional offensive outburst. Ward is a much better bat than Mabry or any of the Dusty crew.

 

Miller could pan out big for us depending on how much arm strength he regains in the offseason.

 

Marquis isn't a bad signing. He's pretty up and down from one year to the next, which makes me worry about the rumored 3 year deal, but Rothschild should be able to get him into form.

 

Lilly is going to put up a sub 4.00 ERA this season. I don't think Wrigley will be a problem for him if he can keep the ball down when the wind is blowing out. When the wind is blowing in, he's going to go deep into the game if he just pitches to contact.

 

I'm pretty excited about this next season. We have the potential to be very good even if Wood and Prior don't pitch one inning combined. If they do show up reasonably healthy for the bulk of the season, we're in for a great season.

 

Your unsubstantiated optimism is just as annoying as the pessimism that everyone complains about.

 

Blanco is not awesome. He is a decent backup catcher.

 

Signing a pitcher coming off of a year in which he allowed more than 6 runs per nine for multiyears and more than twenty million is indeed a bad signing.

 

Why do you think DeRosa will shock cub fans in a good way?

 

How can you make the claim that Lilly will have an era under 4? I can understand hoping or thinking but to say for sure that he will, when he has only once before is crazy.

[EastonBlues22]

Duncan missed several mechanical flaws that Marquis supposedly had fixed in the beginning of one offseason. So much for Duncan being a pitching genius.

You really think that any capable MLB pitching coach is going to overlook "several mechanical flaws" in a guy he's worked with for three years and who's currently struggling badly? You believe that Marquis went down to Florida in the offseason, worked with some guru, and *poof* all his "mechanical flaws" are now fixed and he's in top form for next year?

 

Mazzoni is overrated. I certainly wouldn't give him any credit for guys like Maddux.

Mazzone and Duncan are two of the most respected pitching coaches in the league. Slamming both of them doesn't support your take on what happened with Marquis...it just undermines the credibility of your argument because people are going to assume that you're viewing things in a less than objective manner.

 

There's nothing wrong with being a flyball pitcher in Wrigley. It's actually a good thing when the wind is blowing in. Just pitch to contact, keep your pitch count down, and chew up some innings. When the wind is out, keep the ball down. Not all flyball pitchers get chewed up in bandboxes. You just have to change your approach. I think Lilly can.

Turning a FB pitcher into a GB pitcher isn't really as easy as "changing your approach" for that day... People tend to be up in the zone either because of lack of control, or because of the mechanics of their throwing motion. Neither is really subject to a "quick fix" for the day. With that said, I also think that Lilly will be a fine #3 for you guys.

I guess we'll see how Marquis pitches next season. That will solve our mechanics argument. Time will tell.

We'll see...his K/9 has been terrible for two years now, as has his FIP. His GB:FB (supposedly his specialty) has suffered greatly as well. It's hard to believe he fixed all of that in a one-month span over the offseason.

 

I never slammed Mazzoni or your precious Duncan.

Really? You said: "So much for Duncan being a pitching genius." and "Mazzone is overrated." If someone said either to your face about your job performance, you would probably feel pretty insulted. Slamming is "to criticize harshly, or attack verbally." You impugned both their reputations directly. You slammed them.

 

I said Mazzoni is overrated, which is true. Most ppl think he is the god of pitching coaches. He's not. He had a lot of talent to work with and a guy like Maddux, who was a Cy Young caliber pitcher before he even worked with Leo. Maddux helped Marshall a lot. I don't doubt that a lot of the success of Atlanta's pitchers was due to him and not Mazzoni. I don't doubt that Mazzoni is a great PC, but he's still overrated.

Why is this true? Because you say it's so? How can you call him a great pitching coach...and then turn around and say he's overrated? Either he's a great pitching coach and his reputation's deserved, or he's not, and it's not. Frankly, people with a lot more inside knowledge than either you or I think he's one of the top pitching coaches in the league. I don't see how either one of us could offer a convincing argument to the contrary that outweighs the collective opinion held by people who work in professional baseball for a living.

 

I never said we were going to turn Lilly (a flyball pitcher) into a groundball pitcher. I said flyball pitchers aren't necessarily roadkill in Wrigley b/c of the wind. Will flyball pitchers get beat down if they get the ball up with the wind blowing out? Anyone can get taken yard in Wrigley if they get the ball up. The difference between a GB pitcher and a FB pitcher is not primarily keeping the ball down or elevating. It's the movement on your stuff.

You said: "When the wind is out, keep the ball down." and "You just have to change your approach." Presumably you meant change your approach from pitching up in the zone to pitching down in the zone. Both statements imply that you can change such things at will...which isn't the case.

 

Actually, the biggest differences between the likelihood of a GB and a FB is pitch location. HERE is a link that shows that pitches that are low and on the corners of the plate are much more likely to be hit as GBs than pitches up and over the heart of the plate. People are usually in one of those two areas either because of bad location, or because of mechanics...neither of which is easily correctable. Even Zito, extreme FB pitcher that he is, gets more GBs than FBs on the corners of the plate. While "movement" can alter the trends somewhat, it takes a pitcher like Webb with his extreme movement to essentially make location a non-factor. Ted Lilly doesn't have downward movement like Brandon Webb. Location for him is important. If he had the ability to do it anytime he wanted to, he would.

 

And again, I said I think Lilly will be fine with the Cubs this year...I believe he will have a good year. I just disagree with him being able to "keep the ball down" at will.

[RichHillIsABeast]

I like every offseason move Hendry has made. I'm not too crazy about the money Soriano received, but the Ramirez hometown discount makes that a wash, IMO.

 

DeRosa, Blanco, and Ward are very nice moves. I think DeRosa will really shock Cub fans in a good way. Blanco is just awesome. I love his game calling, defense, and the occaisional offensive outburst. Ward is a much better bat than Mabry or any of the Dusty crew.

 

Miller could pan out big for us depending on how much arm strength he regains in the offseason.

 

Marquis isn't a bad signing. He's pretty up and down from one year to the next, which makes me worry about the rumored 3 year deal, but Rothschild should be able to get him into form.

 

Lilly is going to put up a sub 4.00 ERA this season. I don't think Wrigley will be a problem for him if he can keep the ball down when the wind is blowing out. When the wind is blowing in, he's going to go deep into the game if he just pitches to contact.

 

I'm pretty excited about this next season. We have the potential to be very good even if Wood and Prior don't pitch one inning combined. If they do show up reasonably healthy for the bulk of the season, we're in for a great season.

 

Your unsubstantiated optimism is just as annoying as the pessimism that everyone complains about.

 

Blanco is not awesome. He is a decent backup catcher.

 

Signing a pitcher coming off of a year in which he allowed more than 6 runs per nine for multiyears and more than twenty million is indeed a bad signing.

 

Why do you think DeRosa will shock cub fans in a good way?

 

How can you make the claim that Lilly will have an era under 4? I can understand hoping or thinking but to say for sure that he will, when he has only once before is crazy.

 

It's not unsubstantiated.

 

Blanco is awesome. He calls a good game, has a good throwing arm, great footwork, and can take a walk. Is he an offensive catcher? Of course not, but he is among the best defensive backstops in the game. Our pitching staff signs his praises. There must be something to it, don't you think? You may evaluate a player solely on his offensive abilities. I don't. I think defense is very important, especially for your backstop.

 

If we're going to judge a player solely on his last season, we never would have picked up Jones, who is more than worth his contract. That line of reasoning is bogus. Marquis has shown the ability to pitch very well in his career. If our scouts think he can do it again with Rothschild's help, I'll trust them. This market is flush with cash. Darn near every contract given out this offseason seems "high." That's just how it is. I doubt Marquis bent us over a barrel.

 

DeRosa has altered his swing. Michael Young clone. Check out some of the Rangers games on mlb.tv archives if you get a chance. Does DeRosa have the raw talent Young has? Obviously not, but that swing will produce. He's not the utility player he once was.

 

Lilly will have an ERA (my opinion, obviously not fact) below 4.00. Get him out of that homerun park and away from the monster lineups fielded by NYY and Boston and his ERA is bound to go down. Not having a DH in the NL can't hurt his numbers, can it? Wrigley may give up it's share of taters, but it's nowhere near the HR park Rogers Centre is. With the wind blowing in, it's actually a great park to be a flyball pitcher in.

 

Lilly is obviously not the same pitcher as Arroyo, but Arroyo moved from the same division to the NLC. Arroyo never had an ERA below 4.00 as a starter. He goes to a bandbox and puts up a 3.29 ERA. That's an example of how drastic the effect of moving out of the AL East and into the NL Central is.

[RichHillIsABeast]

I never slammed Mazzoni or your precious Duncan.

Really? You said: "So much for Duncan being a pitching genius." and "Mazzone is overrated." If someone said either to your face about your job performance, you would probably feel pretty insulted. Slamming is "to criticize harshly, or attack verbally." You impugned both their reputations directly. You slammed them.

 

OK, Mr. Oxford English Dictionary. Maybe you should look up "overrated." All it means is that the perceived value is greater than the actual value. Therefore I can say person X is still a great pitching coach while at the same time being overrated.

 

I said Mazzoni is overrated, which is true. Most ppl think he is the god of pitching coaches. He's not. He had a lot of talent to work with and a guy like Maddux, who was a Cy Young caliber pitcher before he even worked with Leo. Maddux helped Marshall a lot. I don't doubt that a lot of the success of Atlanta's pitchers was due to him and not Mazzoni. I don't doubt that Mazzoni is a great PC, but he's still overrated.

Why is this true? Because you say it's so? How can you call him a great pitching coach...and then turn around and say he's overrated? Either he's a great pitching coach and his reputation's deserved, or he's not, and it's not. Frankly, people with a lot more inside knowledge than either you or I think he's one of the top pitching coaches in the league. I don't see how either one of us could offer a convincing argument to the contrary that outweighs the collective opinion held by people who work in professional baseball for a living.

 

That's a logical fallacy. If that is the case, then you can't question the Marquis acquisition b/c the Cubs scouts and Rothschild, who is known as one of the best PCs in baseball by baseball insiders, approve of the move. Fortunately for you, that argument is bogus. If the majority, or the majority of some knowledgable group, always held the correct opinion, democracy would be 100% fullproof.

 

I never said we were going to turn Lilly (a flyball pitcher) into a groundball pitcher. I said flyball pitchers aren't necessarily roadkill in Wrigley b/c of the wind. Will flyball pitchers get beat down if they get the ball up with the wind blowing out? Anyone can get taken yard in Wrigley if they get the ball up. The difference between a GB pitcher and a FB pitcher is not primarily keeping the ball down or elevating. It's the movement on your stuff.

You said: "When the wind is out, keep the ball down." and "You just have to change your approach." Presumably you meant change your approach from pitching up in the zone to pitching down in the zone. Both statements imply that you can change such things at will...which isn't the case.

 

Actually, the biggest differences between the likelihood of a GB and a FB is pitch location. HERE is a link that shows that pitches that are low and on the corners of the plate are much more likely to be hit as GBs than pitches up and over the heart of the plate. People are usually in one of those two areas either because of bad location, or because of mechanics...neither of which is easily correctable. Even Zito, extreme FB pitcher that he is, gets more GBs than FBs on the corners of the plate. While "movement" can alter the trends somewhat, it takes a pitcher like Webb with his extreme movement to essentially make location a non-factor. Ted Lilly doesn't have downward movement like Brandon Webb. Location for him is important. If he had the ability to do it anytime he wanted to, he would.

 

And again, I said I think Lilly will be fine with the Cubs this year...I believe he will have a good year. I just disagree with him being able to "keep the ball down" at will.

 

Did you bother to actually read and understand the material in that link? It completely verified what I said. GB pitchers are GB pitchers b/c of stuff, and not primarily location.

 

I'll quote from the link to you:

 

It would seem, at least in the case of these two pitchers, that their ability (or lack there of) to induce groundballs is not entirely a function of where they throws the ball, but probably reliant on several other factors.

 

That's all that argument showed. It didn't show anything about FB pitchers in general and GB pitchers in general, just Zito and Webb.

 

Of course location is important for Lilly. It's not about getting GBs, it's about not giving up HRs. I never said he'd have to keep the ball down to get GBs. I was concerned about him keeping it in the park with the wind blowing out. The whole GB/FB thing was your paper argument.

 

I'm sorry, but you can "change your approach." You don't think guys at the ML level can put the ball mostly where they want? Black on the outside. Black on the inside. Above the belt. At the knees. Are you kidding me? It is done ALL THE TIME. If you haven't noticed, pitchers don't pitch the same way from one outting to the next, one lineup to the next. Different batters are pitched to different ways.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

FIGHT!

[Balsa]

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[EastonBlues22]

OK, Mr. Oxford English Dictionary. Maybe you should look up "overrated." All it means is that the perceived value is greater than the actual value. Therefore I can say person X is still a great pitching coach while at the same time being overrated.

Name calling, very mature. Next time, if you don't know what a word means, simply have the courtesy to look it up yourself and spare others the trouble.

 

Back to baseball: Mazzone is perceived by the baseball community at large to be a "great pitching coach." Then you acknowledge him to be a "great pitching coach," thus relating what I can only assume to be your take on his actual value. If you think his actual value is less than his perceived value of a great pitching coach...then you should try using a phrase like "he's just an above average pitching coach" or "he's a great pitching coach minus three." You can see how what you said might cause some confusion.

 

 

That's a logical fallacy. If that is the case, then you can't question the Marquis acquisition b/c the Cubs scouts and Rothschild, who is known as one of the best PCs in baseball by baseball insiders, approve of the move. Fortunately for you, that argument is bogus. If the majority, or the majority of some knowledgable group, always held the correct opinion, democracy would be 100% fullproof.

Wrong. There are facts that dispute that the Marquis aquisition is a good one...both statistical and financial. They don't prove it's a bad aquisition, but they more than demonstate that there is room for debate.

 

Your "argument" that Mazzone is overrated is based on no facts other than "his pitchers were already good." You have absolutely no conception of how much or little Mazzone contributed to the careers of his various pitchers. You have nothing better than a "guess" to back up your argument. Certainly nothing substantial that could be used to contradict the informed impresions of many baseball minds. In fact, I'm not aware of even one highly respected baseball mind that thinks otherwise. Are you?

 

Did you bother to actually read and understand the material in that link? It completely verified what I said. GB pitchers are GB pitchers b/c of stuff, and not primarily location.

That's not what it said at all. I'll walk you through it.

 

 

Corners and low produce groundballs across the MLB, middle of the plate and high does not. Here's the quote: "I don’t think there are too many surprises here. The lower the pitch, the greater the chance that it will be hit on the ground." That directly contradicts what you said.

 

Next, it tackles two extreme ends of the spectrum...one an extreme GB pitcher, and one an extreme FB pitcher. Note how Zito's corner pitches still dominantly produce GBs...do his pitches just not move the same there?

 

It concludes with this analysis:

"It would seem, at least in the case of these two pitchers, that their ability (or lack there of) to induce groundballs is not entirely a function of where they throws the ball, but probably reliant on several other factors."

 

That says that, even at the most polarized ends of the spectrum...location IS still a factor...it's just that there are other factors as well. This makes sense, giving the extreme nature of the movements of the ball of the two players in question. It does NOT say that location is NOT a factor at all. Most MLB pitchers are even more dependent on location because their movement is not as extreme as that of someone like Webb. Lilly is one of these pitchers.

 

That's all that argument showed. It didn't show anything about FB pitchers in general and GB pitchers in general, just Zito and Webb.

Wrong, the opening graphic demonstrated what effect pitch location has on the batted nature of the ball across the entire MLB.

 

Of course location is important for Lilly. It's not about getting GBs, it's about not giving up HRs. I never said he'd have to keep the ball down to get GBs. I was concerned about him keeping it in the park with the wind blowing out. The whole GB/FB thing was your paper argument.

You said he had to keep the ball down with the wind blowing out. Yes, that helps prevent HRs...because it induces GBs. I talked about GBs because it's the logical extension of your own argument.

 

I'm sorry, but you can "change your approach." You don't think guys at the ML level can put the ball mostly where they want? Black on the outside. Black on the inside. Above the belt. At the knees. Are you kidding me? It is done ALL THE TIME. If you haven't noticed, pitchers don't pitch the same way from one outting to the next, one lineup to the next. Different batters are pitched to different ways.

Not every pitcher has the control that you're talking about. Most MLB pitchers can command most of their stuff (throw it for strikes)...but it's a much rarer skill to be able to control all of your stuff (locate it specifically within the strike zone)...or even most of it. Generally, people with high BB rates and high HR rates have control problems. Lilly has a career BB rate of 3.67 BB/9, and a career HR rate of 1.38 HR/9...both those point to a decided lack of control. As a comparison, Maddux (a noted control pitcher) has career rates of 1.84 BB/9 and 0.62 HR/9. Last year at the age of ancient he posted 1.59 BB/9 and 0.86 HR/9.

 

So no, I don't believe that Lilly has the control he needs to do what you say on a regular basis.

Edited December 11, 2006 by EastonBlues22

[frostwyrm]

The Soriano contract alone is enough to make me give Hendry a big fat F for his offseason.