A few early predictions..

[erik316wttn]

The Cubs will win, and lose, somewhere between 0 and 162 games in 2007 (just regular season).

 

Jon Madden analyzes baseball now?

 

99% of the time you score more runs than the other team, you win the game.

 

I wonder if Fred has stats on that.

[10man]

Dempster will be traded mid-season.

Howry will become the closer.

Wood will have the job by years end.

[Bruno7481]

 

Rich Hill 215 IP 180 H 81 BB 235 K

 

Starts All-Star game.

 

I'm curious as to his win/loss total and his E.R.A.

 

Ken

 

Well, of course those things are more dependent on outside factors, especially win/loss.....but I'll guess 21-7, 3.00.

 

I just thought with Bill James speculating, we could do a little speculating as well.......

 

:shock:

 

21-7 235K

 

:shock:

 

Amazing what a few good starts in a wasted season does for expectations.

 

I'm all for Hill in the rotation, but counting on him as a #2, which I have seen several advocate, is a big mistake.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

:shock:

 

21-7 235K

 

:shock:

 

Amazing what a few good starts in a wasted season does for expectations.

 

After the All-Star break, Hill was 6th in the NL in ERA, 7th in K/9, 10th in K/BB, 4th in WHIP, and 4th in OPS against. It was more than just a few good starts, Hill was a genuine ace in the second half.

[Bruno7481]

:shock:

 

21-7 235K

 

:shock:

 

Amazing what a few good starts in a wasted season does for expectations.

 

After the All-Star break, Hill was 6th in the NL in ERA, 7th in K/9, 10th in K/BB, 4th in WHIP, and 4th in OPS against. It was more than just a few good starts, Hill was a genuine ace in the second half.

 

In the second half, a couple of months.

 

I like him, a lot. I just don't want to rely on him to be your #2 starter after one half season of good starts.

 

Maybe it was his abysmmal performances the last two years that are holding me back. I think he will have a good year, but I don't want to count on it as a certainty.

 

Those numbers are what Randy Johnson did in his prime. I don't think Hill is quite there yet.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Mark Prior will be out until mid -June(with whatever his current so called injury is), then make to 4-5 starts, before ending the season on the DL again with whatever new injury he decides to make up.

 

Yea...that wimp.

[Master Shake]

The Cubs re-signe Ernie Banks, and he leads them to a World Series

[CubinNY]

So your saying we're screwed Fred?

 

I'm saying..... I sure as hell hope Hendry's not done !!!

 

Yep.

[cheapseats]

 

I'm saying..... I sure as hell hope Hendry's not done !!!

 

If we'd had a competent front office, Hendry would have been done long ago.

[Fred Hornkohl]

 

I'm saying..... I sure as hell hope Hendry's not done !!!

 

If we'd had a competent front office, Hendry would have been done long ago.

 

If frogs had wings, they wouldn't bump their little butts on the ground, eh? :wink:

[Soul]

85 - 77, 2 games out of the Wild Card.

 

 

'08 Piniella makes his run.

[Derwood]

85 - 77, 2 games out of the Wild Card.

 

 

'08 Piniella makes his run...to the Yankees.

 

fixed

[wvcbxl]

99% of the time you score more runs than the other team, you win the game.

 

I know I shouldn't ask this, but what happens in the other 1% of the time?

[CubColtPacer]

99% of the time you score more runs than the other team, you win the game.

 

I know I shouldn't ask this, but what happens in the other 1% of the time?

 

When he said that, I actually thought of one explanation. You don't win the game if you outscore the opponent but the game rains out before it is official.

[TruffleShuffle]

Here's my take on the CUBS offense this year. Basically, I took ZiPs projections for the starters, and adjusted the counting stats for the bench players (while keeping their projected rate stats constant) down so that the team total for ABs is approximately where it was last year.

 

Name         P    AVG   OBP   SLG   G   AB   R    H  2B 3B  HR RBI  BB    K  SB CS 
Soriano      rf  .265  .327  .498 160  642 100  170  38  2  36  98  50  150  27 10
DeRosa       2b  .265  .324  .403 124  404  54  107  30  1   8  49  32   85   2  1
Lee          1b  .299  .383  .567 137  501  88  150  36  1  32  97  65  106  10  3 
Ramirez      3b  .296  .355  .559 144  538  82  159  33  2  35 110  46   63   1  1 
Jones        rf  .263  .320  .456 145  520  66  137  24  2  24  77  39  123   9  4 
Murton       lf  .299  .361  .446 139  448  65  134  21  3  13  61  42   65   8  3 
Barrett      c   .285  .349  .481 122  403  48  115  28  3  15  63  35   56   0  2 
Izturis      ss  .272  .320  .356 116  475  58  129  23  4   3  43  31   49  12  7 
pitchers     p   .202  .219  .277 162  336  25   68  12  2   3  18   6   97   1  2

Blanco       c   .225  .276  .398  57  162  15   36  10  1   6  22  11   29   0  1
Cedeno       ss  .256  .286  .358  41  138  15   35   5  1   2  13   5   26   2  2
Bynum        lf  .240  .293  .327  55  184  26   44   8  2   2  16  13   46  10  6
Pagan        cf  .251  .310  .360  86  308  45   77  14  5   4  29  24   68  13  9
Theriot      2b  .275  .335  .356 112  364  52  100  19  3   2  34  31   41  15  5
Moore        3b  .248  .319  .425  49  165  23   41   9  0   7  23  16   48   3  2

Totals           .269  .323  .439 162 5588 762 1502 310 32 192 753 446 1052 113 58

2006 CUBS        .268  .319  .422 162 5587 716 1496 271 46 166 677 395  928 121 49
2005 CUBS        .270  .324  .440 162 5584 703 1506 323 23 194 674 419  920  65 39

 

I don't think this is a great offense by any stretch of the imagination, but I fail to see how the 2006 Cubs, if as healthy as you've represented here, could have a worse OPS than the 2005 Cubs. You've replaced Juan Pierre with a far, far better player, and you're not going to have the black hole known as Cedeno in your everyday lineup. Then you've got Lee most days, instead of a bum like Mabry or whoever else the Cubs put there while Lee was out.

[Guest]

the 2005 cubs didn't have Pierre - they had Corey (I know, even worse).

 

But they had the otherworldly version of Derrek, too.

[sethuel1]

I don't think this is a great offense by any stretch of the imagination, but I fail to see how the 2006 Cubs, if as healthy as you've represented here, could have a worse OPS than the 2005 Cubs. You've replaced Juan Pierre with a far, far better player, and you're not going to have the black hole known as Cedeno in your everyday lineup. Then you've got Lee most days, instead of a bum like Mabry or whoever else the Cubs put there while Lee was out.

 

I think you've got your years mixed up.

[abuck1220]

:shock:

 

21-7 235K

 

:shock:

 

Amazing what a few good starts in a wasted season does for expectations.

 

After the All-Star break, Hill was 6th in the NL in ERA, 7th in K/9, 10th in K/BB, 4th in WHIP, and 4th in OPS against. It was more than just a few good starts, Hill was a genuine ace in the second half.

 

In the second half, a couple of months.

 

I like him, a lot. I just don't want to rely on him to be your #2 starter after one half season of good starts.

 

 

who would you like to count on as the #2 starter? prior? i'd be all for schmidt, but it doesn't look like the cubs are interested.

 

hill's second half is likely better than anything gil meche, adam eaton or jason marquis have done in their careers, and you don't have to pay 20-40 million bucks for rich hill.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

I predict the Cubs will suck less than 2006, but they'll suck plenty when compared to the payroll. I'd almost be happy if they hit 500 again.

[FergieJ31]

I predict the Cubs will suck less than 2006, but they'll suck plenty when compared to the payroll. I'd almost be happy if they hit 500 again.

 

Seconded.

[TruffleShuffle]

I don't think this is a great offense by any stretch of the imagination, but I fail to see how the 2006 Cubs, if as healthy as you've represented here, could have a worse OPS than the 2005 Cubs. You've replaced Juan Pierre with a far, far better player, and you're not going to have the black hole known as Cedeno in your everyday lineup. Then you've got Lee most days, instead of a bum like Mabry or whoever else the Cubs put there while Lee was out.

 

I think you've got your years mixed up.

 

Oh yeah, I read it as 2006 and 2007. Whoops.

 

I guess it's possible that this team would produce around the level of the 2005 team. I think it'll be a little better, though. Murton's numbers suggest no improvement at all this year, and I think he'll be a little better. I also think Soriano will significantly outperform the 265/327/498 line projected for him.

[Guest]

I don't think that Pagan will be dragging down the averages by getting 300+ AB's, either.

[cheapseats]

Can we make non-Cubs predictions?

 

I predict Rocco Baldelli puts up CPatt-like numbers this year.

 

Really.

 

:D

[TruffleShuffle]

Can we make non-Cubs predictions?

 

I predict Rocco Baldelli puts up CPatt-like numbers this year.

 

Really.

 

:D

 

C-Patt from 2003 or 2005?

[cheapseats]

Can we make non-Cubs predictions?

 

I predict Rocco Baldelli puts up CPatt-like numbers this year.

 

Really.

 

:D

 

C-Patt from 2003 or 2005?

 

I'm thinking more like 2004 or 2006.