ESPN 1000 - Cubs are going after Schmidt next

[Soul]

what does it matter a whole lot if his fastball MPH goes down? Power pitchers need to rely on placement and movement more then speed as their career stretches out longer.

 

It matters, because stuff matters, and when your stuff lessens, your effectiveness lessens. Guys can still be relatively effective with less stuff, but they won't be as effective. And less MPH can also suggest some sort of health issue, which could lead to much worse things in the near or long-term.

 

Probably just indicates age in Schmidt's case. He's 33 and pitched effectively last year for 200+ innings at that velocity. He's just getting old, but there's no reason he won't age gracefully.

[Guest]

shoulder injuries have destroyed many a young pitcher. I see his return to 2003 form as low probability for that reason. it can happen a la chris carpenter, but frequently doesn't.

 

Yeah but we dont even know what was wrong with that shoulder. Its not like he had a defined rotator cuff tear or something of that nature. It doesnt seem like he's had the type of injuries you cant come back from.

 

I'm not a doctor, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once. Anyway, there seems to be increasing evidence that everything in the shoulder is linked - ie rotator cuff injuries are linked to labrums etc. The fact that his injury is undefined makes me less confident of his future rather than more confident. Something isn't right.

[Soriano12]

 

Dusty killed Prior.

 

:roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll:

[fibro]

Schmidt's velocity may be tailing off, but that's what happens to most pitchers at some point. He's been through some tough seasons already, and pitched a heck of a lot. My guess is, he'll do a slow burn down until he isn't effective anymore---and that point won't likely be reached until maybe 3 years from now.

 

He pitched another 200+ innings last year, and he was supposed to be broken down *then*. Had another 180 K's, went to the All-Star game again (yeah, yeah---means nothing, except it actually does).

 

I don't see him falling off the cliff like a Wood or Prior. I'd sign Schmitty to up to 4 years.

 

Unless your Roger Clemens then you miraculously get better with age. Wonder how he does that?

[E.J.]

Schmidt's velocity may be tailing off, but that's what happens to most pitchers at some point. He's been through some tough seasons already, and pitched a heck of a lot. My guess is, he'll do a slow burn down until he isn't effective anymore---and that point won't likely be reached until maybe 3 years from now.

 

He pitched another 200+ innings last year, and he was supposed to be broken down *then*. Had another 180 K's, went to the All-Star game again (yeah, yeah---means nothing, except it actually does).

 

I don't see him falling off the cliff like a Wood or Prior. I'd sign Schmitty to up to 4 years.

 

Unless your Roger Clemens then you miraculously get better with age. Wonder how he does that?

 

B-12 shots....

[cheapseats]

 

Unless your Roger Clemens then you miraculously get better with age. Wonder how he does that?

 

Roger Clemens is actually Schmidt's #3 comp in PECOTA. There are some pretty impressive names in the top 20: Jack Morris, Roger Clemens, Bob Gibson, Steve Carlton, Tom Seaver, Curt Schilling, and David Cone. Many (if not all) of those guys pitched several very good seasons after their 33rd birthdays.

 

Of course, there are several guys on Schmidt's comp list that became ineffective after their 33rd birthday. Hideo Nomo was good at 34 (2003) for example, but when he turned 35 (2004), his ERA doubled.

[baseball7897]

http://catfishstew.baseballtoaster.com/archives/215432.html

 

Jason Schmidt's mechanics. Awesome pictures.

[goonys evil twin]

what does it matter a whole lot if his fastball MPH goes down? Power pitchers need to rely on placement and movement more then speed as their career stretches out longer.

 

It matters, because stuff matters, and when your stuff lessens, your effectiveness lessens. Guys can still be relatively effective with less stuff, but they won't be as effective. And less MPH can also suggest some sort of health issue, which could lead to much worse things in the near or long-term.

 

Probably just indicates age in Schmidt's case. He's 33 and pitched effectively last year for 200+ innings at that velocity. He's just getting old, but there's no reason he won't age gracefully.

 

There's no reason he can't age gracefully, but there's plenty of reasons why he might not. Schmidt wasn't any good in 2005, was it a fluke or the signs of a guy nearing decline.

 

None of us knows what the future holds for him. There are plenty of comparisons that would seem to indicate he could really stink in just 2 or 3 years. There is some reason to believe he could last another 5-6. Let's not pretend there's no chance of serious setbacks here. He's not an unblemished pitcher.

[Uber]

The Cardinals plan to meet with the agent for Jason Schmidt during the winter meetings.

It's believed Schmidt would prefer to play for a West Coast team, but if he's not locked into that, St. Louis would have to be appealing, assuming the Cards can put the same kind of offer on the table as the other top bidders. In this market, Schmidt should go for no less than $60 million for four years or $70 million for five.

[Backtobanks]

The Cardinals plan to meet with the agent for Jason Schmidt during the winter meetings.

It's believed Schmidt would prefer to play for a West Coast team, but if he's not locked into that, St. Louis would have to be appealing, assuming the Cards can put the same kind of offer on the table as the other top bidders. In this market, Schmidt should go for no less than $60 million for four years or $70 million for five.

 

Trading for starters instead of free agents is looking better every minute.

[jjgman21]

The Cardinals plan to meet with the agent for Jason Schmidt during the winter meetings.

It's believed Schmidt would prefer to play for a West Coast team, but if he's not locked into that, St. Louis would have to be appealing, assuming the Cards can put the same kind of offer on the table as the other top bidders. In this market, Schmidt should go for no less than $60 million for four years or $70 million for five.

 

Ted Lilly you say.

[baseball7897]

The Cardinals plan to meet with the agent for Jason Schmidt during the winter meetings.

It's believed Schmidt would prefer to play for a West Coast team, but if he's not locked into that, St. Louis would have to be appealing, assuming the Cards can put the same kind of offer on the table as the other top bidders. In this market, Schmidt should go for no less than $60 million for four years or $70 million for five.

 

I doubt Schmidt will get an offer in the 60-70 million range.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

The Cardinals plan to meet with the agent for Jason Schmidt during the winter meetings.

It's believed Schmidt would prefer to play for a West Coast team, but if he's not locked into that, St. Louis would have to be appealing, assuming the Cards can put the same kind of offer on the table as the other top bidders. In this market, Schmidt should go for no less than $60 million for four years or $70 million for five.

 

I doubt Schmidt will get an offer in the 60-70 million range.

 

How much do you want to bet?

[Shilzzz]

The Cardinals plan to meet with the agent for Jason Schmidt during the winter meetings.

It's believed Schmidt would prefer to play for a West Coast team, but if he's not locked into that, St. Louis would have to be appealing, assuming the Cards can put the same kind of offer on the table as the other top bidders. In this market, Schmidt should go for no less than $60 million for four years or $70 million for five.

 

I doubt Schmidt will get an offer in the 60-70 million range.

 

How much do you want to bet?

 

i'd like to take that too.

[nilodnayr]

The Cardinals plan to meet with the agent for Jason Schmidt during the winter meetings.

It's believed Schmidt would prefer to play for a West Coast team, but if he's not locked into that, St. Louis would have to be appealing, assuming the Cards can put the same kind of offer on the table as the other top bidders. In this market, Schmidt should go for no less than $60 million for four years or $70 million for five.

 

I doubt Schmidt will get an offer in the 60-70 million range.

 

Carlos Lee got 17M a year after putting up an average of under 120 OPS+ over the last 4 years, Schmidt has put up an average of over 130 ERA+ over the same period. While Schmidt is older, Lee dresses up like the State Puff Marshmallow man for Halloween and every other day of the year and signed to a longer term contract than Schmidt is rumor to be signed for.

[baseball7897]

The Cardinals plan to meet with the agent for Jason Schmidt during the winter meetings.

It's believed Schmidt would prefer to play for a West Coast team, but if he's not locked into that, St. Louis would have to be appealing, assuming the Cards can put the same kind of offer on the table as the other top bidders. In this market, Schmidt should go for no less than $60 million for four years or $70 million for five.

 

I doubt Schmidt will get an offer in the 60-70 million range.

 

Carlos Lee got 17M a year after putting up an average of under 120 OPS+ over the last 4 years, Schmidt has put up an average of over 130 ERA+ over the same period. While Schmidt is older, Lee dresses up like the State Puff Marshmallow man for Halloween and every other day of the year and signed to a longer term contract than Schmidt is rumor to be signed for.

 

The way this market is going with such low depth at all positions, I wouldn't doubt he would recieve an offer in that range. I just hope Hendry is smart enough to not offer him a contract that exceeds 45 million.

[uppercase_D]

I dont understand the concept that Schmidt isnt worth 15 million when Lilly is being offered 10 million per. Thats insane. He's worth the extra five and then some.

[sethuel1]

I doubt Schmidt will get an offer in the 60-70 million range.

 

Carlos Lee got 17M a year after putting up an average of under 120 OPS+ over the last 4 years, Schmidt has put up an average of over 130 ERA+ over the same period. While Schmidt is older, Lee dresses up like the State Puff Marshmallow man for Halloween and every other day of the year and signed to a longer term contract than Schmidt is rumor to be signed for.

 

The way this market is going with such low depth at all positions, I wouldn't doubt he would recieve an offer in that range. I just hope Hendry is smart enough to not offer him a contract that exceeds 45 million.

I would also doubt that he receives an offer in that range.

 

Also, I think he would receive an offer in that range.

Edited December 2, 2006 by sethuel1

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

The Cardinals plan to meet with the agent for Jason Schmidt during the winter meetings.

It's believed Schmidt would prefer to play for a West Coast team, but if he's not locked into that, St. Louis would have to be appealing, assuming the Cards can put the same kind of offer on the table as the other top bidders. In this market, Schmidt should go for no less than $60 million for four years or $70 million for five.

 

I doubt Schmidt will get an offer in the 60-70 million range.

 

Carlos Lee got 17M a year after putting up an average of under 120 OPS+ over the last 4 years, Schmidt has put up an average of over 130 ERA+ over the same period. While Schmidt is older, Lee dresses up like the State Puff Marshmallow man for Halloween and every other day of the year and signed to a longer term contract than Schmidt is rumor to be signed for.

 

The way this market is going with such low depth at all positions, I wouldn't doubt he would recieve an offer in that range. I just hope Hendry is smart enough to not offer him a contract that exceeds 45 million.

 

So are you saying the Cubs won't offer Schmidt 60-70 million or that he won't get that much. In your first post, it appears that you are saying he won't get that much. Now, it appears you're contradicting yourself saying he will get that offer, but you hope it's not from the Cubs. So which is it?

 

I'm certain he could get 60 million. I'm just not sure it will be from the Cubs.

[CubinNY]

I doubt Schmidt will get an offer in the 60-70 million range.

 

Carlos Lee got 17M a year after putting up an average of under 120 OPS+ over the last 4 years, Schmidt has put up an average of over 130 ERA+ over the same period. While Schmidt is older, Lee dresses up like the State Puff Marshmallow man for Halloween and every other day of the year and signed to a longer term contract than Schmidt is rumor to be signed for.

 

The way this market is going with such low depth at all positions, I wouldn't doubt he would recieve an offer in that range. I just hope Hendry is smart enough to not offer him a contract that exceeds 45 million.

I would also doubt that he receives an offer in that range.

 

Also, I think he would receive an offer in that range.

 

I also do not doubt that I am doubting that someone will offer Schmidt a $60 million contarct.

 

But I don't doubt it can happen.

[baseball7897]

The Cardinals plan to meet with the agent for Jason Schmidt during the winter meetings.

It's believed Schmidt would prefer to play for a West Coast team, but if he's not locked into that, St. Louis would have to be appealing, assuming the Cards can put the same kind of offer on the table as the other top bidders. In this market, Schmidt should go for no less than $60 million for four years or $70 million for five.

 

I doubt Schmidt will get an offer in the 60-70 million range.

 

Carlos Lee got 17M a year after putting up an average of under 120 OPS+ over the last 4 years, Schmidt has put up an average of over 130 ERA+ over the same period. While Schmidt is older, Lee dresses up like the State Puff Marshmallow man for Halloween and every other day of the year and signed to a longer term contract than Schmidt is rumor to be signed for.

 

The way this market is going with such low depth at all positions, I wouldn't doubt he would recieve an offer in that range. I just hope Hendry is smart enough to not offer him a contract that exceeds 45 million.

 

So are you saying the Cubs won't offer Schmidt 60-70 million or that he won't get that much. In your first post, it appears that you are saying he won't get that much. Now, it appears you're contradicting yourself saying he will get that offer, but you hope it's not from the Cubs. So which is it?

 

I'm certain he could get 60 million. I'm just not sure it will be from the Cubs.

 

Does he deserve 60-70 million at this point in his career? NO. Paying anything in the range of 70 million for a declining 34 year old pitcher is not a smart move. The only way I see him getting that much money is if some team has to offer him that much to get him out of the west coast.

 

I see Hendry offering him a contract, but I dont see him offering anything close to 70 million. Specially if he goes out at signs Lilly to a contract.

[jjgman21]

I dont understand the concept that Schmidt isnt worth 15 million when Lilly is being offered 10 million per. Thats insane. He's worth the extra five and then some.

 

because what can be done with the extra 5M could possibly improve the team more than just having Schmidt.

 

I also have seen nothing on Lilly being offered 10M, more in the 8-9 range. his agent is on the record as saying he wants Washburn money, ie 9M/year.

[uppercase_D]

The Cardinals plan to meet with the agent for Jason Schmidt during the winter meetings.

It's believed Schmidt would prefer to play for a West Coast team, but if he's not locked into that, St. Louis would have to be appealing, assuming the Cards can put the same kind of offer on the table as the other top bidders. In this market, Schmidt should go for no less than $60 million for four years or $70 million for five.

 

This alone should be more inspiration to put a nice offer out there for him, 3 years isn't going to get it done, and the last thing you want is for the Cardinals to end up with him. Start thinking like the Sox and Yankees. You gotta block what the other teams that are in your division are trying to do. You get better while they do not. You sign Schmidt and they are forced to sign the Lillys and Padillas.

[nilodnayr]

Baseball7897 is a killer skateboarder...he can pull off multiple 180s in the blink of an eye!

[uppercase_D]

I dont understand the concept that Schmidt isnt worth 15 million when Lilly is being offered 10 million per. Thats insane. He's worth the extra five and then some.

 

because what can be done with the extra 5M could possibly improve the team more than just having Schmidt.

 

I also have seen nothing on Lilly being offered 10M, more in the 8-9 range. his agent is on the record as saying he wants Washburn money, ie 9M/year.

 

While in a normal offseason year i'd tend to agree with you, this year, the player talent available in free agency is pretty thin. The drop off between the A free agents and the B free agents is pretty steep. I also dont see where you'd make up for the talent difference between Lilly and Schmidt in free agency elsewhere.