Cubs sign Soriano

[rocket]

Here's something positive about Soriano:

 

2005 walks: 33

2006 walks: 67

 

kctigers pointed this out last time it was brought up, but of the 34 walk increase, 13 of those were intentional.

 

well crap.

 

it's still a positive trend upwards, right? and we got the dreamy hitting coach who likes plate discipline...

[Andy]

On the Trib.com it says that Soriano will play CF and lead off.

 

I certainly hope he is not the Cubs leadoff hitter.

The silver lining is that his OBP will likely be higher than Pierre's.

[JeffH]

Half those walks were intentional and the other half could very well have been intentional unintentional walks. I'm not sold he turned a corner in plate discipline as much as everyone thinks.

 

I would be willing to guess that more than half of walks drawn by power hitters are "intentional unintentional". The key is to be willing to accept them.

[JonnyRed]

for crying out loud, I'm the biggest Hendry critict of all, but what is with all the complaining. We needed another bat. Yeah, I would have prefered Drew, but I'll settle for Soriono. The Cubs finally ponied up the $$$ for a top of the line guy and people are bitching. Amazing.

 

Soriano is not very good. He wasn't going to be even close to the contract he was projected to get, and this 8/135 rumor is Hamptonian. It's like giving Mark DeRosa 5/60.

 

Please, what does a guy have to do to be good in your eyes...46 HRs (in a tough ballpark to hit in), 41 SB, 119 runs, 95 RBIs, oh and 22 outfield assists. Plus, he's the first player in HISTORY with a 40-40-40 season. Not good?

[YearofDaCubs]

On the Trib.com it says that Soriano will play CF and lead off.

 

I certainly hope he is not the Cubs leadoff hitter.

Agreed. I think we can use his power more as a middle of the order type or else our lineup gets pretty thin after ARam. If we could sign Lugo to play SS and move Izturis for peanuts I can definitely see a huge improvement in the lineup.

[CuseCubFan69]

Here's something positive about Soriano:

 

2005 walks: 33

2006 walks: 67

 

kctigers pointed this out last time it was brought up, but of the 34 walk increase, 13 of those were intentional.

 

He did see a lot more pitches per at bat though as well.

 

Not really. He saw 3.90p/PA in 2006. In 2001 he saw 3.84 and in 2004-5 he saw 3.65. Barely a career best, and not a gigantic improvement over 2004-5.

 

He could also be swinging and missing less.

[Guest]

Soriano was not in the top 10 or even the top 25 for best offensive players in the league last year... he was the 33rd best offensive player (VORP). He WAS, however, about 30 runs better than Pierre. Unfortunately, I am pretty sure that a 30 run upgrade still makes our offense at or below average. (With 30 more runs last year we'd like Soriano's old team and tied for 10th in runs in the NL.) Perhaps with a health Lee and the removal of the negative runs Cedeno, this could be improved more. But even with an optmistic 40 more runs from those spots this would still be a second tier NL offense. I fear that adding a $17M player likely ends the offensive upgrade.

 

By VORP, he was the best offensive player on the Cubs last year. Add in a healthy Lee, another Aramis season, and an improved season from Murton and I think the offense will be significantly improved.

 

doesn't VORP measure how much above the actual guy that would replace you? in other words, isn't he using how much better Soriano is than Church to say he wasn't a top 35 player?

Actually, it measures value against a hypothetical replacement player by position. So Soriano's VORP was measured against a replacement LF last year. This year, his production will be measured against a replacement CF, giving him a substantial boost in value.

[RockTheIvy]

Here's something positive about Soriano:

 

2005 walks: 33

2006 walks: 67

 

kctigers pointed this out last time it was brought up, but of the 34 walk increase, 13 of those were intentional.

 

He did see a lot more pitches per at bat though as well.

 

Not really. He saw 3.90p/PA in 2006. In 2001 he saw 3.84 and in 2004-5 he saw 3.65. Barely a career best, and not a gigantic improvement over 2004-5.

 

I saw the .3 and thought it was big.

[USSoccer]

A 21 walk increase from 33 still represents a 60% bump from the previous year.

 

He also set a career high in SO's with 160, which was a 22% increase from 2005.

 

It's the SLG% that I like. I'm not going to really think that he's found patience and plate discipline at age 30.

[frostwyrm]

A 21 walk increase from 33 still represents a 60% bump from the previous year.

 

Fonz was the only big thumper in the Nats lineup, so I'm sure he got pitched around some. With DLee and Aramis in the lineup it won't be like that. I guess that will translate into more HR opportunities, but also fewer walks.

[Shilzzz]

On the Trib.com it says that Soriano will play CF and lead off.

 

I certainly hope he is not the Cubs leadoff hitter.

Agreed. I think we can use his power more as a middle of the order type or else our lineup gets pretty thin after ARam. If we could sign Lugo to play SS and move Izturis for peanuts I can definitely see a huge improvement in the lineup.

 

yeah, if lou is smart enough to put someone like murton number two, soriano as a leadoff hitter(his splits there are amazing) is something the cubs can get away with.

[Abe Frohman]

Has anybody considered how this deal looks if the Cubs are sold and payroll drops back to $95M? This could be a franchise-crippling boat anchor.

 

Even if the Cubs are not sold, my first thoughts of this contract are that there is a larger chance that this signing hurts the Cubs than helps. Soriano is a great addition, but for that cost?

 

Reckless. If it pays off, great. If it fails, Hendry's gone anyway.

 

Don't get me wrong, I like the addition of Soriano - but the negatives are that he doesn't have a set position, he has been a huge distraction in the past, and he strikes out like it's nobodies business.

 

Yet I remain cautiously optimistic - because I am a Cubs fan.

[nilodnayr]

I think a good barometer to how good of a signing this is, is to see all the "now if we just trade for manny", or "now if we just signe drew" posts in this thread....it might just be a reflection of crazy optimistic posters, or it might be a reflection of how unsure we are that Sori ias actually going to be a significant upgrade. Color me the later.

 

Pierre- .292 .330 .388 3 HR 58 SB

 

Soriano- .277 .351 .560 46 HR 41 SB

 

Ohh, I didn't realize that every player repeats their numbers from the previous year. Thanks for letting me in on that secret. Jeez, that makes a GMs job so much easier. I would say that our team is looking pretty good now...except I predict its really going to hurt us when DLee breaks his wrist. And too bad ARAM won't step up when we need him. Hey, lets trade for Suppan at the deadline, he won't have a ton of value at the time but I'm willing to go out on a limb and guess that he will do really well in the playoffs!!!! Man I bet the Rangers are pissed that that this rule that you have wasn't in effect when they trade for Sori. Thanks for the update!

 

Calm ... down ...

 

Alright, now that your calm. Even if Soriano reverts to his Texas numbers (will not happen), then he is still going to hit 30+ home runs and have a decent arm in center. Will Pierre have those things? No, so it is at least a pretty big upgrade over our production last year from CF.

 

And taking salaries into consideration and OBP.... (when you can use OBP as why someone isnt a significant upgrade over Pierre thats sad, really sad).

[Brian]

Has anybody considered how this deal looks if the Cubs are sold and payroll drops back to $95M? This could be a franchise-crippling boat anchor.

 

The Cubs have been a franchise crippling boat anchor themselves. At least it could be fun for a year.

 

If the trib sells, hopefully they have decency to sell the Cubs by themselves, and pretty much all that have claimed to want to buy the Cubs seem like spending won't be a problem.

[Guest]

A 21 walk increase from 33 still represents a 60% bump from the previous year.

 

Fonz was the only big thumper in the Nats lineup, so I'm sure he got pitched around some. With DLee and Aramis in the lineup it won't be like that. I guess that will translate into more HR opportunities, but also fewer walks.

That's okay as long as he converts some of those HR opportunities.

 

Plus, as things stand now, he's likely to have DeRosa hitting behind him, so don't expect pitchers to be overly aggressive with him.

[nilodnayr]

I just don't get it why people think this is the best player available....

 

If he has a season like last year again, then I dont think there's a better FA option out there.

 

Soriano's production last year is basically equivalent to Drew's career numbers.

 

Right. Except that Soriano will more than likely play everyday. Drew's much more iffy.

 

Drew's last three years say hello. (And don't count his broken hand against him.)

[USSoccer]

One other thing to consider is that if you subscribe to the theory that lineup construction doesn't affect overall run production, we're not going to suffer because Soriano hits 1st.

 

His SLG% has ticked up over the last 3 seasons.

[UMFan83]

http://www.philliesphans.com/phorum/viewtopic.php?t=37121

 

Phillies reaction is mixed

[VanceJergins]

We got someone that will dramatically improve our chances to win this year. The Cubs havent won since 1908 and you people are worried that we may have less financial flexibility in 5 years? This may be a horrible contract, but it gives us a much better chance to win a world series. I dont care if it hurts us in a few years, I'm very pleased. Hendry improved the team by a lot for next year, well done.

[JonnyRed]

I could care less if he sucks at 38 still with this team, the fact is that for once Hendry's going after the big fish with guns blazing.

I'm much more worried about his sucking at the age of 31 relative to that deal.

Maybe he will.

 

But on the other hand, maybe this is a sign that he's learned his lesson relative to guys that seem to have an injury bug following them around re: JD Drew.

 

Soriano and Drew were the two guys that gave us the best chance to win now, and getting one of them would be a great accomplishment.

So you throw over a hundred million at a guy who's already 30 and has had exactly one great season? All I see is a player who has never shown an ability to get on base at a good rate, can't play defense, and played out of his mind SLG wise for one season. How is that more dependable than JD Drew, who will be cheaper for fewer years, much more consistent, and better defensively?

 

Hendry just hasn't shown an ability to understand why OBP is important.

 

I don't understand all the love for JD Drew, who can't seem to stay healthy. We'll invest $13M in a guy who will miss 30-40 games next season.

[RockTheIvy]

I just don't get it why people think this is the best player available....

 

If he has a season like last year again, then I dont think there's a better FA option out there.

 

Soriano's production last year is basically equivalent to Drew's career numbers.

 

Right. Except that Soriano will more than likely play everyday. Drew's much more iffy.

 

Drew's last three years say hello. (And don't count his broken hand against him.)

 

How could I?

[jjgman21]

Soriano was not in the top 10 or even the top 25 for best offensive players in the league last year... he was the 33rd best offensive player (VORP). He WAS, however, about 30 runs better than Pierre. Unfortunately, I am pretty sure that a 30 run upgrade still makes our offense at or below average. (With 30 more runs last year we'd like Soriano's old team and tied for 10th in runs in the NL.) Perhaps with a health Lee and the removal of the negative runs Cedeno, this could be improved more. But even with an optmistic 40 more runs from those spots this would still be a second tier NL offense. I fear that adding a $17M player likely ends the offensive upgrade.

 

By VORP, he was the best offensive player on the Cubs last year. Add in a healthy Lee, another Aramis season, and an improved season from Murton and I think the offense will be significantly improved.

 

doesn't VORP measure how much above the actual guy that would replace you? in other words, isn't he using how much better Soriano is than Church to say he wasn't a top 35 player?

Actually, it measures value against a hypothetical replacement player by position. So Soriano's VORP was measured against a replacement LF last year. This year, his production will be measured against a replacement CF, giving him a substantial boost in value.

 

even so, seems a pretty narrow method of determining that he wasn't a top 32 offensive player.

[Outshined_One]

Wow...I like the fact that this team signed Soriano. They got the big bat they needed. Problem is, 8/$135m is crazy.

 

Let's hope that there are option years on that deal, otherwise this contract will be dicey in a few years once his production begins dropping off.

[back2backjax]

NOT ANOTHER WORD ABOUT HOW HENDRY/CUBS MGMT ISN'T TRYING TO WIN!

[USSoccer]

Wow...I like the fact that this team signed Soriano. They got the big bat they needed. Problem is, 8/$135m is crazy.

 

Let's hope that there are option years on that deal, otherwise this contract will be dicey in a few years once his production begins dropping off.

 

At least in 6 years market inflation will make this deal look less insane. :D