Marty York: Cubs Planning Trade for Vernon?

[Soriano12]

Gammons this morning on the radio talked about the Jays potentially dealing Wells at this years winter meetings. The Jays are anticipating that Vernon will be asking for $15M per season after next year and they wouldnt be able to afford him, so they might try and deal him this winter. He didnt mention suitors.

 

Maybe if they didn't piss all that money away on Burnett, the could

afford Wells.

[goonys evil twin]

Gammons this morning on the radio talked about the Jays potentially dealing Wells at this years winter meetings. The Jays are anticipating that Vernon will be asking for $15M per season after next year and they wouldnt be able to afford him, so they might try and deal him this winter. He didnt mention suitors.

 

Maybe if they didn't piss all that money away on Burnett, the could

afford Wells.

 

I think Toronto can more than afford Wells. They have plenty of cash. The issue is they don't see him as a superstar.

 

I wouldn't mind the combo of Matthews and Durham, one of the Japanese guys and a big trade/or sign an impact pitcher. I think an ARod trade would rob the team of it's depth and recources.

 

I don't like the idea of Mathews. If he was a platoon guy, fine, but he has sucked for most of his career. Counting on him as a starter next season would be risky.

 

I don't think an ARod trade would at all affect depth. The Yankees won't be asking for depth.

[TheDude]

Wells is also going to be 28 next season, and if you believe/subscribe to the theory of the 28 year old player, then next year projects as Wells best year for his career.

 

I can dig Wells in CF next year, but not at the expense of Hill.

[goonys evil twin]

Wells is also going to be 28 next season, and if you believe/subscribe to the theory of the 28 year old player, then next year projects as Wells best year for his career.

 

I can dig Wells in CF next year, but not at the expense of Hill.

 

26-27 is a little closer to peak.

[cl smooth]

am i missing something? wells' stats don't really impress me too much. in fact, his career stats almost mirror jacque jones' career stats...

 

wells: .288/.336/.492

 

jones: .280/.328/.461

 

granted, jones put up those numbers in roughly two more seasons that wells has, but i really don't see the reason why the cubs should trade for him. do we really want someone like wells in CF that is basically jacque jones with a better arm and (most likely) 3X the salary of jones? we need to upgrade our offense when it comes to CF, but this doesn't seem like a good choice. if someone is able to prove me wrong, i'm all ears. i'm curious to see why others think this is a good choice...

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Good point. Moving Jones to CF and upgrading in RF would be better than acquiring Wells.

[goonys evil twin]

am i missing something? wells' stats don't really impress me too much. in fact, his career stats almost mirror jacque jones' career stats...

 

wells: .288/.336/.492

 

jones: .280/.328/.461

 

granted, jones put up those numbers in roughly two more seasons that wells has, but i really don't see the reason why the cubs should trade for him. do we really want someone like wells in CF that is basically jacque jones with a better arm and (most likely) 3X the salary of jones? we need to upgrade our offense when it comes to CF, but this doesn't seem like a good choice. if someone is able to prove me wrong, i'm all ears. i'm curious to see why others think this is a good choice...

 

Wells is better than Jones. For one, he's a legit CF, so his value, relative to his position, is much higher. Also, he's a consisent over 100 OPS+ producer, whereas Jones is routinely below 100 (ie, below average). Jones has a career OPS+ of 101, while Wells is 112.

 

So, Vernon is significantly more productive already, still in his prime with a shot to improve. And he plays a position where production is scarce.

 

I don't think he's a great option, but he's a far better choice for CF than Jones was for RF, and much better than most other options out there, especially including Pierre.

[goonys evil twin]

Good point. Moving Jones to CF and upgrading in RF would be better than acquiring Wells.

 

That's only if you can find a RF that's significantly better than Wells. The defensive difference between Wells and Jones in CF is probably an issue.

[RynoRules]

Then we got hosed.

 

I want to see Pie playing for the Cubs. But I'm not saving a spot for him if good alternatives are available.

 

I've seen that movie too many times before.

 

QFT

[Banedon]

Then we got hosed.

 

I want to see Pie playing for the Cubs. But I'm not saving a spot for him if good alternatives are available.

 

I've seen that movie too many times before.

 

QFT

 

I think this is what I was trying to get at with my comparisons, and I failed miserably. So I'll go with this... :P

[CuseCubFan69]

Gammons this morning on the radio talked about the Jays potentially dealing Wells at this years winter meetings. The Jays are anticipating that Vernon will be asking for $15M per season after next year and they wouldnt be able to afford him, so they might try and deal him this winter. He didnt mention suitors.

 

Maybe if they didn't piss all that money away on Burnett, the could

afford Wells.

 

I think Toronto can more than afford Wells. They have plenty of cash. The issue is they don't see him as a superstar.

 

I wouldn't mind the combo of Matthews and Durham, one of the Japanese guys and a big trade/or sign an impact pitcher. I think an ARod trade would rob the team of it's depth and recources.

 

I don't like the idea of Mathews. If he was a platoon guy, fine, but he has sucked for most of his career. Counting on him as a starter next season would be risky.

 

I don't think an ARod trade would at all affect depth. The Yankees won't be asking for depth.

 

I meant depth in what the Cubs need to win or trade from there on. It might take a Z or Hill and others and that would be hard to recoup.

[baseball7897]

Vernon Wells!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

My position on Wells revolves around what it would cost to get him.

 

If they ask for someone like Izturis and a minor leaguer, sure. If they want Rich Hill or Matt Murton, no.

 

I would consider a Pie for Wells deal, but I don't really like it. Not unless we negotiate that extension. Trading Pie for a rental doesn't make much sense. If I'm trading Pie for a rental, I'd rather aim for Andruw Jones.

 

Jones production is better than Wells and he's not much older.

 

So, it's really hard for me to know how I feel here until I'm more certain what the player cost will be.

 

My guess is Tornto is going to want a very good player in return. I'm thinking they will ask for a package that revolves around Hill or Murton and under those circumstances, I'd have to pass.

[USSoccer]

My position on Wells revolves around what it would cost to get him.

 

If they ask for someone like Izturis and a minor leaguer, sure. If they want Rich Hill or Matt Murton, no.

 

I would consider a Pie for Wells deal, but I don't really like it. Not unless we negotiate that extension. Trading Pie for a rental doesn't make much sense. If I'm trading Pie for a rental, I'd rather aim for Andruw Jones.

 

Jones production is better than Wells and he's not much older.

 

So, it's really hard for me to know how I feel here until I'm more certain what the player cost will be.

 

My guess is Tornto is going to want a very good player in return. I'm thinking they will ask for a package that revolves around Hill or Murton and under those circumstances, I'd have to pass.

 

I have the same feeling about what Toronto is going to want. They obviously still think they can contend against the aging NY and Boston teams. They probably will want one of Hill, Pie or Murton, to set themselves up for 2008 when they'll likely be in a good position to win that division.

 

If that's the cost, I'd probably pass. If they'd be willing to take one of our prospect pitchers like Veal or Gallagher along with maybe Marshall and Izturis, I'd do it.

[baseball7897]

My position on Wells revolves around what it would cost to get him.

 

If they ask for someone like Izturis and a minor leaguer, sure. If they want Rich Hill or Matt Murton, no.

 

I would consider a Pie for Wells deal, but I don't really like it. Not unless we negotiate that extension. Trading Pie for a rental doesn't make much sense. If I'm trading Pie for a rental, I'd rather aim for Andruw Jones.

 

Jones production is better than Wells and he's not much older.

 

So, it's really hard for me to know how I feel here until I'm more certain what the player cost will be.

 

My guess is Tornto is going to want a very good player in return. I'm thinking they will ask for a package that revolves around Hill or Murton and under those circumstances, I'd have to pass.

 

Holy smokes!! I actually agree with you on this.

 

Im sure Toronto is going to ask for Hill, Pie, and Guzman for Wells. In other words, Toronto is going to ask for alot in return for Vernon.

 

Hendry would be stupid if he traded away Rich Hill. That would leave the Cubs with one starter you could count on(Carlos Zambrano). I dont think Hendry would trade Hill anyways.

Edited November 3, 2006 by baseball7897

[USSoccer]

My position on Wells revolves around what it would cost to get him.

 

If they ask for someone like Izturis and a minor leaguer, sure. If they want Rich Hill or Matt Murton, no.

 

I would consider a Pie for Wells deal, but I don't really like it. Not unless we negotiate that extension. Trading Pie for a rental doesn't make much sense. If I'm trading Pie for a rental, I'd rather aim for Andruw Jones.

 

Jones production is better than Wells and he's not much older.

 

So, it's really hard for me to know how I feel here until I'm more certain what the player cost will be.

 

My guess is Tornto is going to want a very good player in return. I'm thinking they will ask for a package that revolves around Hill or Murton and under those circumstances, I'd have to pass.

 

Holy smokes!! I actually agree with you on this.

 

Im sure Toronto is going to ask for Hill, Pie, and Guzman for Wells. In other words, Toronto is going to ask for alot in return for Vernon.

 

That might be where they'd start, but even they would have to know they wouldn't get our best young pitcher and our top position prospect for a 1 year rental.

 

I'll bet you could talk them down to Marshall, Guzman, Izturis and Harvey.

[baseball7897]

My position on Wells revolves around what it would cost to get him.

 

If they ask for someone like Izturis and a minor leaguer, sure. If they want Rich Hill or Matt Murton, no.

 

I would consider a Pie for Wells deal, but I don't really like it. Not unless we negotiate that extension. Trading Pie for a rental doesn't make much sense. If I'm trading Pie for a rental, I'd rather aim for Andruw Jones.

 

Jones production is better than Wells and he's not much older.

 

So, it's really hard for me to know how I feel here until I'm more certain what the player cost will be.

 

My guess is Tornto is going to want a very good player in return. I'm thinking they will ask for a package that revolves around Hill or Murton and under those circumstances, I'd have to pass.

 

Holy smokes!! I actually agree with you on this.

 

Im sure Toronto is going to ask for Hill, Pie, and Guzman for Wells. In other words, Toronto is going to ask for alot in return for Vernon.

 

That might be where they'd start, but even they would have to know they wouldn't get our best young pitcher and our top position prospect for a 1 year rental.

 

I'll bet you could talk them down to Marshall, Guzman, Izturis and Harvey.

 

But wouldn't the Blue Jays want someone who they feel is going to be a superstar player in return? Not to say Pie is going to be that guy, but they would probably want him if they're going to trade Vernon.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

USSoccer,

 

It's obvious that you and I see this situation the same. Toronto doesn't have to move him and they aren't a team that is dumping contracts. They also aren't in rebuilding mode. That indicates to me that they want a player or players that will contribute at the major league level.

 

While I'm not opposed to moving Murton or Hill or Pie (and I'm more inclined to move one Pie than the former two), I want it to be in the right deal.

 

While Vernon Wells has age on his side, he's not signed beyond this year. Unless you sign him to an extension, he'll walk. Then you've paid a heavy price for a player that gives you only one year.

 

I may be willing to do that for an impact player that would get the Cubs to the postseason. Is Wells that player?

 

His 2006 OPS+ was 126. That is good for CF. His 2003 was 131. That would be great as well. However, his 2004 OPS+ = 103 and his 2005 was 104. That's pedestrian. While still above average, it's not worth paying top talent to acquire when that player is not signed beyond next season.

 

Take Andruw Jones in comparison. Jones 2006 OPS+ was 129. In 2005, it was 133, in 2004 it was 113.

 

Jones has consistently been more productive than Wells. Jones was 29 last season, Wells was 27. The age difference isn't significant. Whatever package the Cubs offer for Wells, they should offer to Atlanta for Jones instead.

 

Spend the talent to win. I'm ok with that. I just want to make sure we're actually acquiring elite talent while paying an elite price. I'm not sure that would be the case with Wells.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

My position on Wells revolves around what it would cost to get him.

 

If they ask for someone like Izturis and a minor leaguer, sure. If they want Rich Hill or Matt Murton, no.

 

I would consider a Pie for Wells deal, but I don't really like it. Not unless we negotiate that extension. Trading Pie for a rental doesn't make much sense. If I'm trading Pie for a rental, I'd rather aim for Andruw Jones.

 

Jones production is better than Wells and he's not much older.

 

So, it's really hard for me to know how I feel here until I'm more certain what the player cost will be.

 

My guess is Tornto is going to want a very good player in return. I'm thinking they will ask for a package that revolves around Hill or Murton and under those circumstances, I'd have to pass.

 

Holy smokes!! I actually agree with you on this.

 

Im sure Toronto is going to ask for Hill, Pie, and Guzman for Wells. In other words, Toronto is going to ask for alot in return for Vernon.

 

That might be where they'd start, but even they would have to know they wouldn't get our best young pitcher and our top position prospect for a 1 year rental.

 

I'll bet you could talk them down to Marshall, Guzman, Izturis and Harvey.

 

But wouldn't the Blue Jays want someone who they feel is going to be a superstar player in return? Not to say Pie is going to be that guy, but they would probably want him if they're going to trade Vernon.

 

But is Wells a superstar player? And he'd be a rental. That's the problem with paying a premium price for Wells.

 

Two key issues. He may not bring premium production and you may only have him for a year.

[baseball7897]

My position on Wells revolves around what it would cost to get him.

 

If they ask for someone like Izturis and a minor leaguer, sure. If they want Rich Hill or Matt Murton, no.

 

I would consider a Pie for Wells deal, but I don't really like it. Not unless we negotiate that extension. Trading Pie for a rental doesn't make much sense. If I'm trading Pie for a rental, I'd rather aim for Andruw Jones.

 

Jones production is better than Wells and he's not much older.

 

So, it's really hard for me to know how I feel here until I'm more certain what the player cost will be.

 

My guess is Tornto is going to want a very good player in return. I'm thinking they will ask for a package that revolves around Hill or Murton and under those circumstances, I'd have to pass.

 

Holy smokes!! I actually agree with you on this.

 

Im sure Toronto is going to ask for Hill, Pie, and Guzman for Wells. In other words, Toronto is going to ask for alot in return for Vernon.

 

That might be where they'd start, but even they would have to know they wouldn't get our best young pitcher and our top position prospect for a 1 year rental.

 

I'll bet you could talk them down to Marshall, Guzman, Izturis and Harvey.

 

But wouldn't the Blue Jays want someone who they feel is going to be a superstar player in return? Not to say Pie is going to be that guy, but they would probably want him if they're going to trade Vernon.

 

But is Wells a superstar player? And he'd be a rental. That's the problem with paying a premium price for Wells.

 

Two key issues. He may not bring premium production and you may only have him for a year.

 

I dont think Vernon is that "superstar player", but he is one of the top Cf in the game. Hendry would obviously have to work out a deal to sign Wells to an extension. But would Wells take that offer? I dont know. It would be a risk, but a risk I would be willing to take on.

[USSoccer]

USSoccer,

 

It's obvious that you and I see this situation the same. Toronto doesn't have to move him and they aren't a team that is dumping contracts. They also aren't in rebuilding mode. That indicates to me that they want a player or players that will contribute at the major league level.

 

While I'm not opposed to moving Murton or Hill or Pie (and I'm more inclined to move one Pie than the former two), I want it to be in the right deal.

 

While Vernon Wells has age on his side, he's not signed beyond this year. Unless you sign him to an extension, he'll walk. Then you've paid a heavy price for a player that gives you only one year.

 

I may be willing to do that for an impact player that would get the Cubs to the postseason. Is Wells that player?

 

His 2006 OPS+ was 126. That is good for CF. His 2003 was 131. That would be great as well. However, his 2004 OPS+ = 103 and his 2005 was 104. That's pedestrian. While still above average, it's not worth paying top talent to acquire when that player is not signed beyond next season.

 

Take Andruw Jones in comparison. Jones 2006 OPS+ was 129. In 2005, it was 133, in 2004 it was 113.

 

Jones has consistently been more productive than Wells. Jones was 29 last season, Wells was 27. The age difference isn't significant. Whatever package the Cubs offer for Wells, they should offer to Atlanta for Jones instead.

 

Spend the talent to win. I'm ok with that. I just want to make sure we're actually acquiring elite talent while paying an elite price. I'm not sure that would be the case with Wells.

 

I think Wells' contract situation can cut both ways. Toronto isn't going to want to lose Wells and just get a draft pick for him. You might now be able to get him this offseason, but you could pick him up at some point in the season, and I don't think you necessarily have to give up Pie, Murton or Hill.

 

As far as Jones goes, I'm leery of dealing with Atlanta in general, but if he were available, I think I'd prefer Jones to Wells. How well we match up with Atlanta, I don't know.

 

One thing that is absolutely key, and that I totally agree with you on is we have to be judicious in our trades. We are very thin in the way of tradable assets, so if we deal, we need to deal for the right players.

[baseball7897]

Toronto is pretty weak at the catching department. They may ask for Barrett in return. In that case, would you do a Wells for Barrett deal? In my opinion I would. There are guys like Bengie Molina who could be signed cheap to replace Barrett behind the plate. Bengie is not the offensive player that Barrett is, but his defense is pretty solid.

 

If Bengie could put up a offensive season like he did for Toronto this year, then I think it would be a good deal to consider. .284 Average 19HR 57RBI .319OBp. His OBP is pretty low, but I could deal with it if he puts up a .284 Average with 19HR and 57RBI.

Edited November 3, 2006 by baseball7897

[mg420]

Toronto is pretty weak at the catching department. They may ask for Barrett in return. In that case, would you do a Wells for Barrett deal? In my opinion I would. There are guys like Bengie Molina who could be signed cheap to replace Barrett behind the plate. Bengie is not the offensive player that Barrett is, but his defense is pretty solid.

 

it would be tempting. i wonder if the bo sox would give up kottaras for howry or eyre?

[baseball7897]

Toronto is pretty weak at the catching department. They may ask for Barrett in return. In that case, would you do a Wells for Barrett deal? In my opinion I would. There are guys like Bengie Molina who could be signed cheap to replace Barrett behind the plate. Bengie is not the offensive player that Barrett is, but his defense is pretty solid.

 

it would be tempting. i wonder if the bo sox would give up kottaras for howry or eyre?

 

I dont think Hendry would do that deal. Hendry probably has to win now to keep his job. Kottaras needs more time to develop before he can become an elite catcher.

[goonys evil twin]

Toronto is pretty weak at the catching department. They may ask for Barrett in return. In that case, would you do a Wells for Barrett deal? In my opinion I would. There are guys like Bengie Molina who could be signed cheap to replace Barrett behind the plate. Bengie is not the offensive player that Barrett is, but his defense is pretty solid.

 

it would be tempting. i wonder if the bo sox would give up kottaras for howry or eyre?

 

I dont think Hendry would do that deal. Hendry probably has to win now to keep his job. Kottaras needs more time to develop before he can become an elite catcher.

 

Does he have to be an elite catcher right now for the Cubs to win in that scenario?