Strive for mediocrity in 2007, or go for it in 2008?

[CubFanPhilly]

Please Hendry. Don't re-sign Pierre - the first domino in pathetic attempt to get back to "respectable". Give me one of these rosters next season:

 

 

Option 1 - $105 mil. payroll          Option 2 - $75 mil. payroll
                                                (roll the $30 mil. saved into '08-'09)

LINEUP                                LINEUP
Matthews, Jr. CF                      Theriot/Fontenot 2B
Murton LF                             Murton LF           
Soriano 2B                            Lee 1B
D. Lee 1B                             Jones RF                  
A. Ram 3B                             Barrett C
Barrett C                             Pie CF
Jones RF                              Moore 3B
Izturis SS                            Izturis SS


ROTATION                              ROTATION
Zambrano                              Zambrano
Zito                                  Hill
Guzman/Mateo                          Prior
Hill/Marshall                         Guzman
Prior                                 Marshall

BENCH                                 BENCH
Theriot                               Fontenot
Cedeno                                Cedeno
Moore                                 Hoffpauir
Pagan                                 Pagan
Soto or Reyes                         Soto or Reyes
Restovich/Pie (mid-year)              Restovich  

BULLPEN                               BULLPEN
Wood                                  Wood
Eyre                                  Eyre
Howry                                 Howry
Dempster                              Ohman
Ohman                                 Wuertz
Wuertz                                Mateo/Marmol

 

Option 1 probably means that Barrett or Prior is gone after 2007. Option 2 gives the flexibility to sign any/all of Barrett/Prior/Wood. I think I'd take my chances with the young guys. Find out who can play and who can't over a full season. Build some trade value and take a bushel of money into the 2007-2008 offseason to fill the inevitable 3 or 4 holes in your lineup and rotation.

 

You might even get the fans on board if you committ to a re-building plan with a new manager and coaching staff (Girardi, Von Joshua, et. al. please). Which team would you rather watch in 2007?

 

But instead we'll see Pierre re-signed along with a couple of washed-up veterans off the scrap heap.

 

CFP

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I don't think that's an entirely fair assessment. In Option 1, the reason you wouldn't be able to bring back Barrett/Prior/Wood is because you invested so much into Soriano and Zito. However, those guys aren't stop gaps, they're investments for several years of putting up good production. Getting Gary Matthews to play over Pie isn't going to keep the Cubs from retaining the pieces they need in the future.

[Soriano12]

for Option 1

 

I think the Matthews family has worn out their welcome here

in chi town.

 

 

Matthews Sr. managed to lose his job to Gene Clines of all people.

 

and Jr was pretty terrible his first time around here.

 

I think this season is simply an abberation combined with some

extra effort to get himself a contract he doesn't deserve.

 

 

otherwise its a pretty good plan.

[biittner77]

for Option 1

 

I think the Matthews family has worn out their welcome here

in chi town.

 

 

Matthews Sr. managed to lose his job to Gene Clines of all people.

 

and Jr was pretty terrible his first time around here.

 

I think this season is simply an abberation combined with some

extra effort to get himself a contract he doesn't deserve.

 

 

otherwise its a pretty good plan.

 

Here's what he did as a Cub in 2001

 

.217/ .320/ .364 in 258 ABs

 

GM jr was an ok 4th OF and very good defensively as a Cub, which is a lot different than "pretty terrible". Furthermore I don't believe lack of effort was as much to blame as his inability to get on base enough to make a legit every day player.

 

That being said I still don't see him repeating his '06 production. He's basically put up a .750 ish ops every season since then (about .840 this year). That's not too bad, especially for a team that values speed and the ability to catch the ball. :ball:

[Soriano12]

for Option 1

 

I think the Matthews family has worn out their welcome here

in chi town.

 

 

Matthews Sr. managed to lose his job to Gene Clines of all people.

 

and Jr was pretty terrible his first time around here.

 

I think this season is simply an abberation combined with some

extra effort to get himself a contract he doesn't deserve.

 

 

otherwise its a pretty good plan.

 

Here's what he did as a Cub in 2001

 

.217/ .320/ .364 in 258 ABs

 

GM jr was an ok 4th OF and very good defensively as a Cub, which is a lot different than "pretty terrible".

 

 

So you don't consider batting 217 with a 320 OBP and a 364 sluggin%

terrible?

 

:roll:

wow.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I think if Ramirez leaves, we're best of trying to go young in 2007 with an eye toward 2008.

 

If the Cubs can retain Ramirez without it impacting the finances for other moves, then it is possible to gear-up and be productive for 2007. I'm not sure Hendry is the man to do it, but I do believe it can be done.

 

Assuming Ramirez stays, the Cubs will have a core of Ramirez, Lee, and Barrett with which to build the offense around.

 

Secondly, the Cubs will have an ace in Zambrano along with a number of young pitchers who could fill the 4-5 spots in the rotation.

 

Third, the Cubs will have Prior, but we are uncertain as to what to expect from him.

 

Those are the strengths.

 

The problem areas are the Cubs have committed roster space to players like Izturis at SS and Jones in RF which hamper the ability to upgrade the offense.

 

Secondly, Murton, who could be a solid player, is playing the position which would best be fillled with a power hitter considering the Cubs' other holes.

 

Third, the Cubs will need to fill at least one spot in the rotation, if not two.

 

I've a few ideas on what can be done, but I'll have to post them later. I'm off to a meeting right now.

[Jehrico]

I don't think there's any chance of going for the post season in '07. With that in mind, there's no reason to make moves solely for the purpose of being mediocre in '07 while handicapping our ability to succeed in '08. If you're not going for a championship in any given year, then make moves that get you to the championship as soon as possible. Never shoot for .500, never be content being mediocre, even if it is an improvement over your current situation.

[Mephistopheles]

Maybe. I'd kill for Pedro Alvarez.

[CubFanPhilly]

I don't think that's an entirely fair assessment. In Option 1, the reason you wouldn't be able to bring back Barrett/Prior/Wood is because you invested so much into Soriano and Zito. However, those guys aren't stop gaps, they're investments for several years of putting up good production. Getting Gary Matthews to play over Pie isn't going to keep the Cubs from retaining the pieces they need in the future.

 

You're right, Zito and Soriano are investments, but if you're not smart about it, those signings will crowd out other productive players.

 

My point is that if you pay five players big bucks (Zambrano, Zito, Lee, Soriano, ARam), and spend $15 mil. plus in the bullpen there isn't room for the $8 mil. guy unless you have rookies playing 2,3, even 4 positions.

 

The way for the Cubs to get to 6 or 7 studs is to find out which 5-6 rookies can do a solid job and to stop wasting the $3-5 mil. each on veteran stopgaps. I'd much rather spend another season not competing to find out which young players the Cubs can count on an to reinvest the savings into a contending team in '08 and '09.

 

CFP

[PrimeTime]

Wow..option two looks horrible, with that team we would probably lose more games than this yar

[CubFanPhilly]

I don't think there's any chance of going for the post season in '07. With that in mind, there's no reason to make moves solely for the purpose of being mediocre in '07 while handicapping our ability to succeed in '08. If you're not going for a championship in any given year, then make moves that get you to the championship as soon as possible. Never shoot for .500, never be content being mediocre, even if it is an improvement over your current situation.

 

Agreed 100%. It would take an extraordinary amout of luck (Prior, Wood, Lee all coming back very strong and no key injuries next season) - OR - the Trib pumping up the payroll budget and Hendry doing something smart with it.

 

Both are unlikely. When you've got that many unknowns, you regroup and rebuild. Save the money and spend it when it's going to put the team over the top.

 

CFP

[CubColtPacer]

I don't think there's any chance of going for the post season in '07. With that in mind, there's no reason to make moves solely for the purpose of being mediocre in '07 while handicapping our ability to succeed in '08. If you're not going for a championship in any given year, then make moves that get you to the championship as soon as possible. Never shoot for .500, never be content being mediocre, even if it is an improvement over your current situation.

 

I would agree that the chances are low for getting to the playoffs in one year-but I don't think it's impossible. Here's a best case scenario

Trade One or Two of the rookie pitchers with another prospect for A. Jones

Sign Soriano

Sign Schmidt

Sign Platoon Partner for Jacque (2-3 mil)

 

That's only stretching the budget by a few million there (depending on what the budget is for next year, it is possible it will be enough to squeeze in those players I believe, and here is your opening day lineup:

 

Murton

Barrett

Lee

Ramirez

A. Jones

Soriano

J. Jones/PP

Izturis

 

and the rotation

 

Zambrano

Schmidt

Hill

Prior

(Whichever Young Pitcher is left)

 

I think that team is the favorite in the National League next year-who can compete with that lineup?

 

Now, I don't necessarily expect that best case scenario, but I believe there are other scenarios that could give us a good shot at the postseason next year.

[CuseCubFan69]

I just don't see any good options at all if Ramirez leaves unless he signs with the Yanks and they trade ARod to the Cubs. I agree if Ramirez does indeed leave to go young as we have had in another thread and in CFP's Act II. I'd also look into trading Lee, Jones and Barrett unless the Cubs feel they can contend in 2008.

 

I still don't see Wood pitching in 2007 until the season has already been determined one way or another and I refuse to count on him.

[biittner77]

So you don't consider batting 217 with a 320 OBP and a 364 sluggin%

terrible?

 

 

wow.

 

For a starter yes, that line is terrible. For a young, cheap bench player that did 2 things well (defense and baserunning) that's not that bad. I'm not trying to suggest that GM jr "knocked in runs with his glove" but the Cubs ERA rose steadily after they released Matthews and brought in Tucker.

 

That being said, I don't see why him not playing well in his first 3 half seasons has to do with rating him now. GM jr has evolved into a decent complementary player. He'd be an upgrade over Pierre based on improved defense but likely a wash offensively.

 

In other words, he's nothing more than a fallback position.

[Jehrico]

Most everyone seems to be for signing Soriano. I don't know if it's a good idea. His three year splits/trends before this season were not good, and his road splits while in Texas were atrocious (his road OPS was worse than Neifi's in '05!!!). He's going to be 31 next year, which means he's at the end of his prime. There's a very good chance his numbers this year are a fluke and won't be repeated next year. He'll likely still be good for an OPS that is at least close to .800 next year, but I have a feeling he's going to be paid like a 1.000 OPS player due to his ability to play an abhorrent 2nd base. There's big upside to bringing him in, but his performance isn't as sure a thing as many people seem to believe.

[CubFanPhilly]

Wow..option two looks horrible, with that team we would probably lose more games than this yar

 

Indeed they might.

 

But if even half of the young players on that roster played above replacement value, you'd go into '08 with $35 mil. to spend and a core of Zambrano, Lee, Barrett, & (hopefully) Prior. You'd have ML-proven cheap young players to deal. Keep the best 4-5 and you're sitting a lot better than if you sign a bunch of Jacque Joneses to fill the gaps.

 

CFP

[neely crenshaw]

i don't think there is anyway hendry plays it low and goes young and cheap. the trib has got to feel heat from the fans for the garbage of this season and hednry has a 2 year deal. unless he is told from above to do so(very possible) i don't see where he can feel comfortable in his job.

 

i would not mind a youth movement but it is very tempting with the state of the national league to just make a few very good signings and know we could be in the thick of the chase. i mean .500 is in the middle of the wc race....are we that far from being a .500 team?

[Jehrico]

i don't think there is anyway hendry plays it low and goes young and cheap. the trib has got to feel heat from the fans for the garbage of this season and hednry has a 2 year deal. unless he is told from above to do so(very possible) i don't see where he can feel comfortable in his job.

 

i would not mind a youth movement but it is very tempting with the state of the national league to just make a few very good signings and know we could be in the thick of the chase. i mean .500 is in the middle of the wc race....are we that far from being a .500 team?

I think Hendry having a 2 year deal is key here. He doesn't have to improve in '07. If the Trib still owns the team, and he keeps putting fans in seats in '07, and they turn it around in '08, he'll likely be renewed based on '08 without regards to '07. And something tells me they'll still approach 2.8 million plus in '07, which, coupled with a reduced payroll, will produce a similar net profit for the Trib. '08, I believe, is Hendry's make or break year with this organization.

[daske17]

i don't think there is anyway hendry plays it low and goes young and cheap. the trib has got to feel heat from the fans for the garbage of this season and hednry has a 2 year deal. unless he is told from above to do so(very possible) i don't see where he can feel comfortable in his job.

 

i would not mind a youth movement but it is very tempting with the state of the national league to just make a few very good signings and know we could be in the thick of the chase. i mean .500 is in the middle of the wc race....are we that far from being a .500 team?

I think Hendry having a 2 year deal is key here. He doesn't have to improve in '07. If the Trib still owns the team, and he keeps putting fans in seats in '07, and they turn it around in '08, he'll likely be renewed based on '08 without regards to '07. And something tells me they'll still approach 2.8 million plus in '07, which, coupled with a reduced payroll, will produce a similar net profit for the Trib. '08, I believe, is Hendry's make or break year with this organization.

 

I really think 07 is his make it or break it year. MacPhail probably has a twinge of regret making Hendry's deal so early in the year, based on what then looked like a solid on-field product.

 

There have been many a GM that have been canned mid-way through their contract, with the Cubs specifically canning Ed Lynch with time left on his contract. I

 

If the team falls apart again next year, with a new manager and coaching staff no less, it all falls on Hendry's head. And I really think MacPhail won't hesitate to pull the plug after the last two seasons.

[Derwood]

a sidenote:

 

We're talking big business here (Trib), so cutting $30 million from payrollin 2007 does not in any way equal adding $30 million in 2008. That $30 million would go into the stockholder's pockets and Christmas bonuses for all the upper management.

[Jehrico]

i don't think there is anyway hendry plays it low and goes young and cheap. the trib has got to feel heat from the fans for the garbage of this season and hednry has a 2 year deal. unless he is told from above to do so(very possible) i don't see where he can feel comfortable in his job.

 

i would not mind a youth movement but it is very tempting with the state of the national league to just make a few very good signings and know we could be in the thick of the chase. i mean .500 is in the middle of the wc race....are we that far from being a .500 team?

I think Hendry having a 2 year deal is key here. He doesn't have to improve in '07. If the Trib still owns the team, and he keeps putting fans in seats in '07, and they turn it around in '08, he'll likely be renewed based on '08 without regards to '07. And something tells me they'll still approach 2.8 million plus in '07, which, coupled with a reduced payroll, will produce a similar net profit for the Trib. '08, I believe, is Hendry's make or break year with this organization.

 

I really think 07 is his make it or break it year. MacPhail probably has a twinge of regret making Hendry's deal so early in the year, based on what then looked like a solid on-field product.

 

There have been many a GM that have been canned mid-way through their contract, with the Cubs specifically canning Ed Lynch with time left on his contract. I

 

If the team falls apart again next year, with a new manager and coaching staff no less, it all falls on Hendry's head. And I really think MacPhail won't hesitate to pull the plug after the last two seasons.

That's possible. If he goes for it all in '07 and fails, then I certainly hope that's the case. Since we're already keeping him around for '07, if he takes the moderate approach and tries to build for '08, then I hope he isn't judged solely on Ws and Ls in '07, but rather or not he's put a solid foundation in place to really succeed in '08. If we don't make the postseason again by '08, then he needs to go either way.

[daske17]

i don't think there is anyway hendry plays it low and goes young and cheap. the trib has got to feel heat from the fans for the garbage of this season and hednry has a 2 year deal. unless he is told from above to do so(very possible) i don't see where he can feel comfortable in his job.

 

i would not mind a youth movement but it is very tempting with the state of the national league to just make a few very good signings and know we could be in the thick of the chase. i mean .500 is in the middle of the wc race....are we that far from being a .500 team?

I think Hendry having a 2 year deal is key here. He doesn't have to improve in '07. If the Trib still owns the team, and he keeps putting fans in seats in '07, and they turn it around in '08, he'll likely be renewed based on '08 without regards to '07. And something tells me they'll still approach 2.8 million plus in '07, which, coupled with a reduced payroll, will produce a similar net profit for the Trib. '08, I believe, is Hendry's make or break year with this organization.

 

I really think 07 is his make it or break it year. MacPhail probably has a twinge of regret making Hendry's deal so early in the year, based on what then looked like a solid on-field product.

 

There have been many a GM that have been canned mid-way through their contract, with the Cubs specifically canning Ed Lynch with time left on his contract. I

 

If the team falls apart again next year, with a new manager and coaching staff no less, it all falls on Hendry's head. And I really think MacPhail won't hesitate to pull the plug after the last two seasons.

That's possible. If he goes for it all in '07 and fails, then I certainly hope that's the case. Since we're already keeping him around for '07, if he takes the moderate approach and tries to build for '08, then I hope he isn't judged solely on Ws and Ls in '07, but rather or not he's put a solid foundation in place to really succeed in '08. If we don't make the postseason again by '08, then he needs to go either way.

 

Although it hasn't really been discussed by the team or the media, 2008 will be the 100-year anniversary of the Cubs last World Series victory. I don't think the organization wants to have that stuck around their necks going into 2008.

 

That's another reason I think Hendry is going to go for it all next year, and if he can't by the trading deadline prove that he's built a winner, he's gone.

[JeffH]

You guys forgot the third option.

 

Trading away lots of good young talent in a misguided attempt to become "respectable" and "compete within the division".

 

This is the course of action The Ridiculous Hendry will pursue!

[Backtobanks]

The Cubs will never go for option 2. Hendry is going to "give back" $30 million and save it for 2008. I have said all along that I don't think the Cubs are going to be hopeless in 2007. If Prior returns to the rotation as a decent pitcher (not necessarily an ace) and Hendry can sign Schmidt, I think the rotation will be okay. I think Hendry has to pull off a blockbuster deal for a power hitter in a non-traditional spot (CF, 2B, or SS) so that Murton can play everyday in RF. I'm thinking of a deal for Tejada or Andruw Jones for a few young pitchers packaged with Cedeno. Cheaper free agents that can help the Cubs with power are Durham and Craig Wilson. I'm hoping they will sign Wood to a low base-high incentive contract as a reliever. They could definately compete especially in the NL Central.

1B - DLee SP- Zambrano

2B - Durham or Izturis SP - Schmidt

SS - Tejada or Izturis Sp - Prior

3B - ARam SP - Hill

LF - Murton SP - Marshall/Miller/Mateo/Guzman

CF - Pierre or Andruw Jones

RF - J. Jones/Craig Wilson platoon

C - Barrett Closer- Wood/Eyre/Howry/Wuertz

Dempster- traded

 

The only free agents signed would be ARam, Schmidt, & Craig Wilson for sure. (Durham is a maybe depending on Tejada or Andruw Jones acquistion)

One impact trade to acquire either Andruw Jones or Tejada.

[Neuby]

The Cubs will never go for option 2. Hendry is going to "give back" $30 million and save it for 2008. I have said all along that I don't think the Cubs are going to be hopeless in 2007. If Prior returns to the rotation as a decent pitcher (not necessarily an ace) and Hendry can sign Schmidt, I think the rotation will be okay. I think Hendry has to pull off a blockbuster deal for a power hitter in a non-traditional spot (CF, 2B, or SS) so that Murton can play everyday in RF. I'm thinking of a deal for Tejada or Andruw Jones for a few young pitchers packaged with Cedeno. Cheaper free agents that can help the Cubs with power are Durham and Craig Wilson. I'm hoping they will sign Wood to a low base-high incentive contract as a reliever. They could definately compete especially in the NL Central.

1B - DLee SP- Zambrano

2B - Durham or Izturis SP - Schmidt

SS - Tejada or Izturis Sp - Prior

3B - ARam SP - Hill

LF - Murton SP - Marshall/Miller/Mateo/Guzman

CF - Pierre or Andruw Jones

RF - J. Jones/Craig Wilson platoon

C - Barrett Closer- Wood/Eyre/Howry/Wuertz

Dempster- traded

 

The only free agents signed would be ARam, Schmidt, & Craig Wilson for sure. (Durham is a maybe depending on Tejada or Andruw Jones acquistion)

One impact trade to acquire either Andruw Jones or Tejada.

 

The only stumbling block will be Hendry pulling off an impact trade. I think he can get Andruw Jones but were gonna get outbid by the Angels for Miggy. Doesn't Wilson also play a pretty soild RF? I thought I remeber him having a really good arm in right and he can serve the role of a third catcher.

 

Hendry needs to gamble on and give some incentive laden deals to Wood

Miller

Mulder

 

Wood comes back as a RP with a chance to supplement Dempster as closer.

 

Wuertz

Eyre

Howry

Dempster

Wood

Ohman/Novoa/Guzman/Ardasma/Omalley/

 

That bullpen is deep and a huge weapon with the right manager.