What would Barrett net for us?

[RationalSoxFan]

One thing Bengie has an advantage over Barrett is his ability to call a game behind the plate.

Prove it.

Bengie has the reputation around the league for being one of the best game callers behind the plate.

So does Sandy Alomar.

You win with pitching and defense.

.

Not true. And the Sox won with an abysmal AJP behind the plate.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

because it would be much, much cheaper for toronto..who has spent this year but has a tendency to drop payroll.

 

The word that I've heard is that Toronto is going to up their payroll in 2007.

 

$100 million is the current rumour.

 

And don't get me wrong, I love Wells... but he's not worth Barrett. Especially considering the fact we could probably get him for Izturis, Pie, and a live arm. Why give up one of the top players at his position for Wells when you can divest yourself of Izturis for the mere cost of an exceptionally talented, but far from sure thing prospect?

 

The Cubs would be improving their team by adding Wells, then signing Bengie. Bengie wont post a high OBP, but he will hit around .275 and drive in 60 runs a year. His ability to call a game behind the plate, and his ability to play excellent defense is why I want him on the Cubs next year.

 

 

So, your real motivation for wanting to trade Barrett is to open a spot for Molina. While getting Wells would be nice, there are players that could be acquired who are likely equal to or better than Wells that wouldn't cost giving up one of the few bright spots on the team.

 

Barrett > Molina, so if I can improve another position like CF without given up Barrett, that is the better option.

 

Vernon will put up better numbers than Barrett year after year. Then you would be adding Bengie, who will put up similiar numbers Barrett has every year.

 

I'll first challenge your statement that Molina will put up similar numbers to Barrett.

 

Barrett 2004: 287/337/489

Molina 2004: 276/313/404

Edge: Barrett

 

Barrett 2005: 276/345/479

Molina 2005: 295/336/446

Edge: Barrett

 

Barrett 2006: 307/368/517

Molina 2006: 281/315/445

Edge: Barrett

 

Barrett has been better each of the past three years and this year by a significant margin. Considering Molina is 32 and Barrett is 29, it's logical to assume Barrett's performance over the last three years is more sustainable than Molina.

 

And to claim Wells is better than Barrett, at least offensively, that's just not true.

 

In 2006, Wells is hitting 289/362/558. That's pretty comparable to Barrett's 307/368/517. Wells is slugging a bit higher, but that's the only place he has any advantage. In 2004-2005, Barrett was clearly the better hitter as in 2005, Barrett's line of 276/345/479 easily bests Wells's line of 269/320/463 and in 2004 Barrett's line of 287/337/489 is better than Wells's line of 272/337/472.

 

Wells and Barrett are comparable players offensively. Simply swapping one for the other doesn't help unless your catcher is going to be offensive as well.

 

I think it would be easier to find a CF to top Molina's output therefore Barrett + ?CF > Wells + Molina. In fact, I'd dare to say Barrett + Pie would be a equal offensive output to Wells + Molina at a fraction of the cost.

[baseball7897]

One thing Bengie has an advantage over Barrett is his ability to call a game behind the plate.

Prove it.

Bengie has the reputation around the league for being one of the best game callers behind the plate.

So does Sandy Alomar.

You win with pitching and defense.

.

Not true. And the Sox won with an abysmal AJP behind the plate.

 

Sandy Alomar is a solid back up catcher. His ability to play quality defense is why he is still around.

 

AJ had a .999 fielding % behind the plate last year. He also has the ability to call a game. The sox won because they played good defense, and I think that staff was pretty good also.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Bengie will not be making 8 million a year. He is making 4 million for the Blue Jays this year.

 

To say Bengie Molina is not a good baseball is crazy. He is batting .281 15HR 46RBI with a .315OBP for the Blue Jays this year. He won the gold glove in 02 and 03. I dont know about you, but I value a guy who can call a game, and play excellent defense in a demanding position on the field.

 

You're right. I forgot to check his contract status... it's a 7.5 million dollar option that'll be declined. He'll probably make about 5. Either way, it's not an insignificant amount.

 

In 2002 and 2003 Bengie may have deserved a gold glove. I've got him coming in at 12 runs over average each year.

 

2004 he comes in at three below. Yeah, that looks like it might be a statistical anomaly... a sample size issue or something. He had done well in the prior seasons.

 

2005 he comes in at four below. It certainly decreases the odds that both years are anomalous.

 

2006 as we've established puts him at eight below average. The pattern has been irrefutably established. He is not longer an above average defensive catcher... and he's getting worse at an alarming rate.

 

And those offensive numbers you posted are thoroughly unimpressive. The only reason he's amassed 15 HR and 46 RBI is that he's been trotted out there for 384 at bats.

 

If Henry Blanco had the same number of at bats this year, he'd have 12 HR and 62 RBI. Playing time isn't the same thing as production... and his .315 OBP is not acceptible production... at least not on an offensive squad as weak as the Cubs already are. Maybe the Red Sox could hide a guy like him in the lineup... but the Cubs can't afford the downgrade.

 

The only argument you've made that I can't refute with numbers is his ability to call a game. And you've got nothing to back up that claim either.

 

162 game average for Bengie Molina: .273 Average 15HR 72RBI .320OBP.

 

162 game average for Barrett: .263 Average 14HR 64RBI .320OBP

 

Very similiar production. One thing Bengie has an advantage over Barrett is his ability to call a game behind the plate. Bengie has the reputation around the league for being one of the best game callers behind the plate. I like a backstop of Molina and Blanco for the 07 Cubs.

 

Hendry better be looking to add more pitching depth to this club next year. You win with pitching and defense. If the Cubs were to get Bengie and Wells, they would have one the best up the middle defenses in the league.

 

Using 162 game averages is not always the best way to look at current player value. By that logic, Sammy Sosa would be a great acquisition for RF. Just look at his career 162 game average.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Can we refrain from using triple crown numbers and fielding percentage as an argument of a player's worth? They are terrible measures of a player's respective offensive and defensive ability.

[fromthestretch]

162 game average for Bengie Molina: .273 Average 15HR 72RBI .320OBP.

 

162 game average for Barrett: .263 Average 14HR 64RBI .320OBP

 

Very similiar production. One thing Bengie has an advantage over Barrett is his ability to call a game behind the plate. Bengie has the reputation around the league for being one of the best game callers behind the plate. I like a backstop of Molina and Blanco for the 07 Cubs.

 

Any Cubs pitcher that says that Barrett doesn't call a good game is trying to deflect attention away from his own bad performance. I absolutely hate it when pitchers say their catcher doesn't call a good game. Unless you're specifically told otherwise by a coach, if you don't like what sign he's putting down, shake him off. Starting pitchers have several days to prepare for their next start. They should know what they want to throw and when they want to throw it. If you're worried that your catcher might not be on the same page, meet with him before the game to go over how you plan to approach each hitter.

 

I'm not claiming that Barrett is good defensively. He's not. But people put way too much stock in the catcher's value when it comes to the performance of the pitchers that throw to him, especially when it comes to calling a game.

[fromthestretch]

AJ had a .999 fielding % behind the plate last year. He also has the ability to call a game.

 

Fielding % isn't exactly a great way to judge a catcher's defensive value, considering that around 85-90% of their chances come from catching a third strike. And that may be estimating on the low side.

[Rob]

162 game average for Bengie Molina: .273 Average 15HR 72RBI .320OBP.

 

162 game average for Barrett: .263 Average 14HR 64RBI .320OBP

 

Very similiar production. One thing Bengie has an advantage over Barrett is his ability to call a game behind the plate. Bengie has the reputation around the league for being one of the best game callers behind the plate. I like a backstop of Molina and Blanco for the 07 Cubs.

 

Reputations are worth nothing. Give me proof he's even a shadow of his former self behind the plate or I'll continue to believe he's worthless.

 

And I don't even know where to begin with the 162 game averages you've given. Maybe if we were looking for career value it'd be a worthwhile exercise, but career numbers have very little to do with predicting success the next year. Three year splits, on the other hand... are much more valuable for this exercise.

 

Their three year splits are as follows... from 2004 to so far through 2006

 

.285/.322/.433

 

.289/.351/.494

 

That's a pretty huge difference. And it even includes Molina's career year too, so saying it's skewed because of Barrett this year isn't an applicable argument.

 

Trying to put Molina and Barrett on equal offensive grounds is a ridiculous attempt. I've made no such attempt to put them on equal defensive grounds, even though the gap is much smaller in that regard (a mere 9 runs this year on defense, as opposed to the 20 run difference on offense)

[baseball7897]

Can we refrain from using triple crown numbers and fielding percentage as an argument of a player's worth? They are terrible measures of a player's respective offensive and defensive ability.

 

No they are not. Let me guess, you're going to be using VORP and that other garbage to judge Molina? Stats dont tell you everything. Playing and watching are 2 different things. I hate it when people just use some meaningless stats like VORP to judge a player. Average, Hr, RBI's, OBP, and fielding% are a good way to judge a player in my book.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Can we refrain from using triple crown numbers and fielding percentage as an argument of a player's worth? They are terrible measures of a player's respective offensive and defensive ability.

 

No they are not. Let me guess, you're going to be using VORP and that other garbage to judge Molina? Stats dont tell you everything. Playing and watching are 2 different things. I hate it when people just use some meaningless stats like VORP to judge a player. Average, Hr, RBI's, OBP, and fielding% are a good way to judge a player in my book.

 

I am Jack's complete lack of surprise.

 

"VORP and that other garbage"? Do you even know anything about what you're railing against?

 

Triple crown numbers and fielding percentage have been proven to be very poor measures time after time after time. There are much better ways to measure performance and you don't even need to do any calculus to get them. (AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS, several of the +- fielding systems(which are actually developed by watching games and using play-by-play data to improve accuracy), maybe even Runs Created if we're adventurous)

[fromthestretch]

Can we refrain from using triple crown numbers and fielding percentage as an argument of a player's worth? They are terrible measures of a player's respective offensive and defensive ability.

 

No they are not. Let me guess, you're going to be using VORP and that other garbage to judge Molina? Stats dont tell you everything. Playing and watching are 2 different things. I hate it when people just use some meaningless stats like VORP to judge a player. Average, Hr, RBI's, OBP, and fielding% are a good way to judge a player in my book.

 

So it's ok to you that a catcher gets a putout on defense (thus greatly helping his fielding percentage) when his pitcher gets a strikeout, despite the fact that the pitcher was the one that got the hitter out? Fielding percentage for a catcher is a garbage stat.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Can we refrain from using triple crown numbers and fielding percentage as an argument of a player's worth? They are terrible measures of a player's respective offensive and defensive ability.

 

No they are not. Let me guess, you're going to be using VORP and that other garbage to judge Molina? Stats dont tell you everything. Playing and watching are 2 different things. I hate it when people just use some meaningless stats like VORP to judge a player. Average, Hr, RBI's, OBP, and fielding% are a good way to judge a player in my book.

 

So, is Ramirez the best fielding thirdbaseman in the NL?

 

And when using BA/OBP/SLG, Barrett is offensively superior to Molina and Wells. So, now you're down to Fielding % which is hardly a good way to measure catcher's defensive value.

[Rob]

Can we refrain from using triple crown numbers and fielding percentage as an argument of a player's worth? They are terrible measures of a player's respective offensive and defensive ability.

 

No they are not. Let me guess, you're going to be using VORP and that other garbage to judge Molina? Stats dont tell you everything. Playing and watching are 2 different things. I hate it when people just use some meaningless stats like VORP to judge a player. Average, Hr, RBI's, OBP, and fielding% are a good way to judge a player in my book.

 

Was your book written by a children's author?

[Backtobanks]

I'm tired of reading about defensive statistics (especially for a catcher). Give me one of the top offensive players at all the positions and a few good pitchers and I'm sure you would win the WS. I think defense is overated unless you are a borderline team.

[baseball7897]

Can we refrain from using triple crown numbers and fielding percentage as an argument of a player's worth? They are terrible measures of a player's respective offensive and defensive ability.

 

No they are not. Let me guess, you're going to be using VORP and that other garbage to judge Molina? Stats dont tell you everything. Playing and watching are 2 different things. I hate it when people just use some meaningless stats like VORP to judge a player. Average, Hr, RBI's, OBP, and fielding% are a good way to judge a player in my book.

 

Was your book written by a children's author?

 

My book was written with baseball knowledge. I dont like how stat geeks think they know what they are talking about. All they go by is stats, they dont see the things that happen that dont get recorded in a baseball stat book. For example: a runner at 2b with no outs, the hitter hits the ball to the to the right side of the infield. That is considered a great AB by a person who knowledges the game more than a stat geek. Stat geeks would classify that AB has a worthless AB.

Edited September 11, 2006 by baseball7897

[baseball7897]

I'm tired of reading about defensive statistics (especially for a catcher). Give me one of the top offensive players at all the positions and a few good pitchers and I'm sure you would win the WS. I think defense is overated unless you are a borderline team.

 

Give me a team of great defensive players with good pitching, and my team would beat your team anyday. Good pitching always beats good hitting. Poor defense can cause pitchers to throw more pitches, give up more runs, and causes the pitcher not to have confidence he would have with a solid defense. Like Carlos Zambrano. I remember he had the idea he had to strikeout every single batter. Which only hurt his chances staying in the game longer.

[SouthSideRyan]

Oooh boy this thread's got legs.

 

baseball7897, how many Blue Jays games have you watched this year?

[baseball7897]

Oooh boy this thread's got legs.

 

baseball7897, how many Blue Jays games have you watched this year?

 

None. But as a Angels fan, I have seen Bengie long enough to know how he calls a great game. Damian Miller is up there also.

[UK1679666180]

He's regressed since his Angels days, he was doing so before he left Anaheim.

 

His delivery is slower as his arm strength and his quickness around the plate isn't what it was 5 years ago.

[baseball7897]

He's regressed since his Angels days, he was doing so before he left Anaheim.

 

His delivery is slower as his arm strength and his quickness around the plate isn't what it was 5 years ago.

 

That is because he packed on a couple of pounds since then. Bengie had a 3.55 CERA last year. 3rd best in all of baseball.

 

Barrett had a 4.45 CERA last year.

[Guest]

Can we refrain from using triple crown numbers and fielding percentage as an argument of a player's worth? They are terrible measures of a player's respective offensive and defensive ability.

 

No they are not. Let me guess, you're going to be using VORP and that other garbage to judge Molina? Stats dont tell you everything. Playing and watching are 2 different things. I hate it when people just use some meaningless stats like VORP to judge a player. Average, Hr, RBI's, OBP, and fielding% are a good way to judge a player in my book.

 

Was your book written by a children's author?

 

My book was written with baseball knowledge. I dont like how stat geeks think they know what they are talking about. All they go by is stats, they dont see the things that happen that dont get recorded in a baseball stat book. For example: a runner at 2b with no outs, the hitter hits the ball to the to the right side of the infield. That is considered a great AB by a person who knowledges the game more than a stat geek. Stat geeks would classify that AB has a worthless AB.

I'm proud to be a stat geek. And from a stat perspective I'd look at that at bat and compare the expected runs from the first situation to the second situation to evaluate the success of the AB. From recollection, it's close to a wash. Going with that assumption...

 

If a "knowledgeable baseball person" (is there a copyright fro that phrase) thinks it was a great AB, s/he's kidding her/himself. The number of expected runs in the inning has not been significantly altered. A HR in that situation is a great AB. So is a triple or a double. An RBI single is a very good AB. A walk is a good AB that increases the number of expected runs in the inning and drive up the pitch count. Those are all better than the groundout to advance the runner. So I don't see why on earth the GO would be considered a "Great" at bat unless all of the above are considered "even greater" AB's.

 

Now, If a "stat geek" thinks it was a worthless AB, that's either accurate or not depending on whether you care to look at the denotation or connotation of "Worthless". In that the run expectation is not significantly altered, the at bat is, nearly by definition, without worth. But the common definition of worthless connotes something with significant negative worth, which is clearly not the case.

 

How is that response from a self-professed "geek"?

[Guest]

He's regressed since his Angels days, he was doing so before he left Anaheim.

 

His delivery is slower as his arm strength and his quickness around the plate isn't what it was 5 years ago.

 

That is because he packed on a couple of pounds since then. Bengie had a 3.55 CERA last year. 3rd best in all of baseball.

 

Barrett had a 4.45 CERA last year.

And this year?

[UK1679666180]

He's regressed since his Angels days, he was doing so before he left Anaheim.

 

His delivery is slower as his arm strength and his quickness around the plate isn't what it was 5 years ago.

 

That is because he packed on a couple of pounds since then. Bengie had a 3.55 CERA last year. 3rd best in all of baseball.

 

Barrett had a 4.45 CERA last year.

 

Isn't a 32yo. C that has been gaining too much weight for his own good a red flag? He isn't quick behind the plate and has been terrible at throwing out runners. He has thrown out 17.5% of the runners.

 

Molina has a 4.55 CERA this year. Barrett is at 4.57.

 

Although, I really don't like that stat.

[baseball7897]

Can we refrain from using triple crown numbers and fielding percentage as an argument of a player's worth? They are terrible measures of a player's respective offensive and defensive ability.

 

No they are not. Let me guess, you're going to be using VORP and that other garbage to judge Molina? Stats dont tell you everything. Playing and watching are 2 different things. I hate it when people just use some meaningless stats like VORP to judge a player. Average, Hr, RBI's, OBP, and fielding% are a good way to judge a player in my book.

 

Was your book written by a children's author?

 

My book was written with baseball knowledge. I dont like how stat geeks think they know what they are talking about. All they go by is stats, they dont see the things that happen that dont get recorded in a baseball stat book. For example: a runner at 2b with no outs, the hitter hits the ball to the to the right side of the infield. That is considered a great AB by a person who knowledges the game more than a stat geek. Stat geeks would classify that AB has a worthless AB.

I'm proud to be a stat geek. And from a stat perspective I'd look at that at bat and compare the expected runs from the first situation to the second situation to evaluate the success of the AB. From recollection, it's close to a wash. Going with that assumption...

 

If a "knowledgeable baseball person" (is there a copyright fro that phrase) thinks it was a great AB, s/he's kidding her/himself. The number of expected runs in the inning has not been significantly altered. A HR in that situation is a great AB. So is a triple or a double. An RBI single is a very good AB. A walk is a good AB that increases the number of expected runs in the inning and drive up the pitch count. Those are all better than the groundout to advance the runner. So I don't see why on earth the GO would be considered a "Great" at bat unless all of the above are considered "even greater" AB's.

 

Now, If a "stat geek" thinks it was a worthless AB, that's either accurate or not depending on whether you care to look at the denotation or connotation of "Worthless". In that the run expectation is not significantly altered, the at bat is, nearly by definition, without worth. But the common definition of worthless connotes something with significant negative worth, which is clearly not the case.

 

How is that response from a self-professed "geek"?

 

Its called a productive out. I dont think stat geeks like productive outs that much. Yeah, a walk, a hit, a HR,a Double, or a Triple would be great in a situation like that. But, if the hitter makes a out to the right side of the infield he should get high five's from his teammates in the dugout. Thats baseball knowledge. I know some people on this site would take that AB has worthless.

[UK1679666180]

Its called a productive out. I dont think stat geeks like productive outs that much. Yeah, a walk, a hit, a HR,a Double, or a Triple would be great in a situation like that. But, if the hitter makes a out to the right side of the infield he should get high five's from his teammates in the dugout. Thats baseball knowledge. I know some people on this site would take that AB has worthless.

 

The situation determines the quality of that AB rather than the event itself, that's what separates it from the ABs that don't cost the team an out in the process.

 

In a tie or down by 1 run game, the value of advancing or is much greater than down by 3 or 4 runs late.