NL MVP- Breaking Down the Contenders.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

We've looked at NL and AL Cy Young awards. What now of the NL MVP?

 

With the MVP, it's a little tougher to limit the focus. I've tried to do that. First of all, I eliminated pitchers. Personally, I'm reluctant to include pitchers in the MVP discussion unless there's a lack of a good position player to win or unless a pitcher has a season that is way beyond that of a normal Cy Young award winning season. I don't believe that is the case this year.

 

I ended up with 8 candidates (and yes, there are other marginal ones that could be in the discussion as well.) Here they are: Pujols, Berkman, Beltran, Cabrera, Howard, C. Jones, Wright, and Soriano.

 

I wanted to begin with a cursory look at OPS (On base + Slugging Percentage).

 

Here's how they rank.

 

1. Pujols- 1099

2. Berkman- 1022

T3. Beltran- 1015

T3 Cabrera 1015

5. Howard 1002

6. C. Jones 974

7. Soriano 962

8. Wright- 889

 

When looking at this stat alone, Pujols jumps to the lead with the next three not far behind. Wright based upon this metric looks to not belong in the discussion, and granted there were many players with higher OPS that could be included ahead of him.

 

Moving from OPS, I next examined the runs created by each player, and this is how they rank.

 

1. Cabrera 116

2. Pujols 114

T3. Berkman 108

T3. Beltran 108

5. Soriano 107

6. Wright 96

7. Howard 94

8. C. Jones 78

 

After adding this metric, Pujols still appears to be the leader, but Cabrera has moved very close. It also seems to create a level of the top four: Pujols, Cabrera, Berkman, and Beltran and the remaining four. Right now, that's probably how I'd rank them.

 

Moving from RC to RC/G changes things a little, most notable helping those players who have missed some time due to injury.

 

1. Pujols 11.2

2. Cabrera 10.3

3. Berkman 10.2

4. Beltran 9.6

5. C. Jones 8.7

6. Wright 7.9

7. Soriano 7.9

8. Howard 7.7

 

The top four reflect my exact rankings after this stat is taken into account and haven't affected my thinking much. I've noticed the bottom four jump around depending on each stat, but never do any of the bottom four crack the top four. I'm tempted at this point to eliminate all but Pujols, Cabrera, Berkman, and Beltran from the discussion. I'd likely be fair in doing so, but know the voters and national media look at other stats, so I think it is fair to keep looking.

 

I'll move on to homeruns. While this is a one-dimensional stat, it's flashy and catches the voters eyes. It might be telling especially in predicting how the mindless masses might feel in the balloting.

 

1. Howard 45

2. Sorianao 41

3. Pujols 38

4. Beltran 37

5. Berkman 35

T6. Cabrera 22

T6. Wright 22

8. C. Jones 19

 

This moves Howard's and Soriano's stock up a bit. It doesn't change my opinions of ranking the top four: Pujols, Cabrera, Berkman, Beltran, but it could impact the national media's rankings of these players. It could boost Howard while hurting Cabrera some.

 

Some want to know how an MVP candidate perfoms in the clutch. I took each player's BA with RISP and this is what it looks like.

 

1. Pujols- .402

2. Berkman- .375

T2 Cabrera- .375

4. Wright- .365

5. Beltran- .321

6. C. Jones- .290

7. Howard- .241

8. Soriano- .240

 

If clutch hitting is the test of an MVP, Pujols makes his case rather strongly here. Wright is the only new member to our top four, but even with this new information I still feel justified ranking them: Pujols, Cabrera, Berkman, and then Beltran.

 

Finally, I took a look at win shares. This is how they rank:

 

T1. Pujols 27

T1 Beltran 27

3. Berkman 24

4. Soriano 23

5. Cabrera 21

6. Wright 20

7. Howard 17

8. C. Jones 16

 

I'm not surprised that three of the top four are also the ones I've been ranking as such. Cabrera drops to fifth as Soriano moves into the fourth spot.

 

Taking it all into account and as much as it pains me to say it, it's hard not to conclude that Pujols should be well on his way to winning his second MVP. Behind him, I'd rank them: Beltran, Cabrera, Berkman, Soriano, Wright, Howard, and Jones.

 

I really can't find a case to give the award to anyone other than Pujols.

[CubColtPacer]

If the Cardinals get into the playoffs and the numbers stay the same way they are, then Pujols will win. If the Cardinals miss the playoffs or Pujols slumps, then Beltran will win-anybody else will have to have an absolutely monster month to win.

[Productive Outs]

Top 10 in VORP:

 

1. Albert Pujols 66.0

2. Miguel Cabrera 64.6

3. Carlos Beltran 61.3

4. Chase Utley 53.9

5. Lance Berkman 52.4

6. Alfonso Soriano 50.4

7. Ryan Howard 47.9

8. Jose Reyes 46.1

9. Jason Bay 44.3

10. Nick Johnson 43.3

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Top 10 in VORP:

 

1. Albert Pujols 66.0

2. Miguel Cabrera 64.6

3. Carlos Beltran 61.3

4. Chase Utley 53.9

5. Lance Berkman 52.4

6. Alfonso Soriano 50.4

7. Ryan Howard 47.9

8. Jose Reyes 46.1

9. Jason Bay 44.3

10. Nick Johnson 43.3

 

I usually don't take position into account when thinking through my MVP process. That does help elevate some new ones into the mix, namely Utley and drops Berkman some. Either way, Pujols again comes out on top. Cabrera and Beltran remain up there as well.

 

I'd still probably keep my top four the same even taking VORP into account.

[Drew Doughty]

I put Utley over Soriano...though I don't remember why...

[Big Fergie J]

Once again your analysis is spot on.

 

IMHO, the mass media aided by a heavy push from the NYC media will be Met-centric.....therefore Beltran will win. This could change but Pujols will have to have a huge September to counter-balance the NYC marketing campaign.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Once again your analysis is spot on.

 

IMHO, the mass media aided by a heavy push from the NYC media will be Met-centric.....therefore Beltran will win. This could change but Pujols will have to have a huge September to counter-balance the NYC marketing campaign.

 

You have a point, but the NY media could end up being divided between Wright and Beltran.

 

I still think Pujols wins this one. His incumbancy will help and he's already regarded as the most feared hitter in the game. Writers (voters) unwilling to do much homework, will look at Pujols' numbers and conclude that he's the MVP. This year, unlike some, the easy choice also happens to be the right one.

[Geech]

The award should be given to Derrek Lee since he was robbed last year.

[PujolsPower]

Do you think that Beltran and Wright should suffer any because they play for the same team. I think voters may take this into consideration as well. Also, it seemed like Wright carried the Mets team early in the year when the Mets were in a race, and that Beltran has had his best production numbers after the Mets had a comfortable 10+ game division lead.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Do you think that Beltran and Wright should suffer any because they play for the same team. I think voters may take this into consideration as well. Also, it seemed like Wright carried the Mets team early in the year when the Mets were in a race, and that Beltran has had his best production numbers after the Mets had a comfortable 10+ game division lead.

 

I'd let their numbers speak for themselves. I don't penalize a player for having good/great teammates. I also don't reward them either.

 

I think Pujols should win the award right now because overall, he has the best numbers. If I had looked at those and saw that Beltran or Wright had the better numbers, then I'd have come to the conclusion that one of them should receive the award, their teammates notwithstanding.

[Drew Doughty]

The award should be given to Derrek Lee since he was robbed last year.

 

heh

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Thanks for reminding me how little we got to see Derrek this year.

[rawaction]

Yeah, Pujols is the winner, especially when you consider he would be miles ahead of everybody in every category had he not missed 3 weeks.

 

Pujols, Beltran, Howard, Utley, Soriano is how the voting will go.

[CardsFanInChiTown]

Do you think that Beltran and Wright should suffer any because they play for the same team. I think voters may take this into consideration as well. Also, it seemed like Wright carried the Mets team early in the year when the Mets were in a race, and that Beltran has had his best production numbers after the Mets had a comfortable 10+ game division lead.

 

I'd let their numbers speak for themselves. I don't penalize a player for having good/great teammates. I also don't reward them either.

 

I think Pujols should win the award right now because overall, he has the best numbers. If I had looked at those and saw that Beltran or Wright had the better numbers, then I'd have come to the conclusion that one of them should receive the award, their teammates notwithstanding.

 

Agreed, besides:

 

Rolen's VORP: 37.1

Wright's VORP: 34.5

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Yeah, Pujols is the winner, especially when you consider he would be miles ahead of everybody in every category had he not missed 3 weeks.

 

Pujols, Beltran, Howard, Utley, Soriano is how the voting will go.

I was actually looking forward to hearing your case for Ryan Howard. ;)

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Do you think that Beltran and Wright should suffer any because they play for the same team. I think voters may take this into consideration as well. Also, it seemed like Wright carried the Mets team early in the year when the Mets were in a race, and that Beltran has had his best production numbers after the Mets had a comfortable 10+ game division lead.

 

I'd let their numbers speak for themselves. I don't penalize a player for having good/great teammates. I also don't reward them either.

 

I think Pujols should win the award right now because overall, he has the best numbers. If I had looked at those and saw that Beltran or Wright had the better numbers, then I'd have come to the conclusion that one of them should receive the award, their teammates notwithstanding.

 

Agreed, besides:

 

Rolen's VORP: 37.1

Wright's VORP: 34.5

 

Stats geek!

[rawaction]

Yeah, Pujols is the winner, especially when you consider he would be miles ahead of everybody in every category had he not missed 3 weeks.

 

Pujols, Beltran, Howard, Utley, Soriano is how the voting will go.

I was actually looking forward to hearing your case for Ryan Howard. ;)

 

First full year, he's stronger than Atlas and putting up the numbers to show for it. Won the HR derby. Hell, I just like him a lot. Scary if he gets better. Philly has a scary team if they keep Burrell, get a pitcher, and can find players for the top of the lineup to put Rollins 6th or 7th.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Yeah, Pujols is the winner, especially when you consider he would be miles ahead of everybody in every category had he not missed 3 weeks.

 

Pujols, Beltran, Howard, Utley, Soriano is how the voting will go.

I was actually looking forward to hearing your case for Ryan Howard. ;)

 

First full year, he's stronger than Atlas and putting up the numbers to show for it. Won the HR derby. Hell, I just like him a lot. Scary if he gets better. Philly has a scary team if they keep Burrell, get a pitcher, and can find players for the top of the lineup to put Rollins 6th or 7th.

 

Amen. I have a feeling Ryan Howard will win a couple, probably not this year though.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Yeah, Pujols is the winner, especially when you consider he would be miles ahead of everybody in every category had he not missed 3 weeks.

 

Pujols, Beltran, Howard, Utley, Soriano is how the voting will go.

I was actually looking forward to hearing your case for Ryan Howard. ;)

 

First full year, he's stronger than Atlas and putting up the numbers to show for it. Won the HR derby. Hell, I just like him a lot. Scary if he gets better. Philly has a scary team if they keep Burrell, get a pitcher, and can find players for the top of the lineup to put Rollins 6th or 7th.

 

He's good...and I suspect will win at least one MVP before his career is over. This year, the numbers point to the 38-yr old in St. Louis. :)

[CardsFanInChiTown]

Yeah, Pujols is the winner, especially when you consider he would be miles ahead of everybody in every category had he not missed 3 weeks.

 

Pujols, Beltran, Howard, Utley, Soriano is how the voting will go.

I was actually looking forward to hearing your case for Ryan Howard. ;)

 

First full year, he's stronger than Atlas and putting up the numbers to show for it. Won the HR derby. Hell, I just like him a lot. Scary if he gets better. Philly has a scary team if they keep Burrell, get a pitcher, and can find players for the top of the lineup to put Rollins 6th or 7th.

 

He's good...and I suspect will win at least one MVP before his career is over. This year, the numbers point to the 38-yr old in St. Louis. :)

 

Not true, check out AP's little league pic:

 

http://www.littleleague.org/series/2006divisions/llbb/teams/transatlantic/images/team.jpg

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I didn't know they had color cameras back in the Spanish-American War.

[soccer10k]

Pujols should win the award.

 

Also, in reference to the voters, I guarantee you that a couple writers will mention the fact that Pujols finished second behind Bonds in 2002 and 2003 as well as third behind Bonds and Beltre in 2004 and that should factor in.

[Mephistopheles]

Guys don't look now but Miguel Cabrera is leading the league in WARP..

 

1. 9.8 Cabrera (+.9 WAA from Defense)

2. 9.7 Beltran (+1 WAA from Defense)

3. 9.0 Pujols (+1 WAA from Defense)

 

Of course these are using FRAA/FRAR, which I noted that each are getting about +1 win over average at their position. FRAR sucks ass so factoring in say ASB UZR, you'll see that Cabrera is about 2 wins overrated by this method, Pujols is about worth as much as he should, and Beltran is a win UNDER what he should be.

 

And in WS:

 

1. 27 Beltran

1. 27 Pujols

3. 24 Berkman

 

Perhaps Beltran's the real MVP. If the Cards continue to flop, he might just get it. If the Fish make the playoffs, the voters gotta give it to Cabrera.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

The idiots on Around the Horn just made the case for Ryan Howard as NL MVP with one idiot (Platche) uttering the words that Pujols has "no chance."

 

Wow...the level of stupidity on that show is boundless.

Edited August 29, 2006 by vance_the_cubs_fan

[CubColtPacer]

The idiots on Around the Horn just made the case for Ryan Howard as NL MVP with one idiot (Blackistone) uttering the words that Pujols has "no chance."

 

Wow...the level of stupidity on that show is boundless.

 

Yeah, I was just watching that on the replay from that show. It was actually Bill Plaschke who said that Pujols had no chance-he gave it to Beltran because of his higher OPS than Howard has. I have no idea if he was going to use OPS why he didn't pick Pujols considering Pujols has the highest by far of any of them.

 

By the way, for those who are scoring at home (just for entertainment value, not for their opinion as serious baseball experts) Blackistone voted for Howard, Mariotti firmly voted for Howard, Woody voted for Pujols, and Plaschke as I said above voted for Beltran (which is an ok choice) but of course said Pujols had no chance, which the host didn't agree with.

Believe me, I don't listen to this show for serious analysis-but it is entertaining.