Oops part 2

[Outshined_One]

But dont you think that the odds are that Pie in CF and Snider at 1B/Corner outfield will be better than Pie in a corner/Colvin in CF?

 

Not that Pie has anything to do with my point, who wouldn't rather have Snider at this point? Who wouldnt have rather had Snider before the draft?

 

I hope Colvin does well and I root for him every night, but just like I wanted Milledge instead of Harvey, I wanted Snider instead of Colvin and the results of all 4 of these players paint a sad picture of our recent drafts.

 

I'll admit it, I really hoped Snider would be there when the Cubs picked. I really liked his bat and his great character, although I worried that his defensive issues would cause him to end up as a 1B/DH type rather than a 1B/LF type.

 

There are a few things to keep in mind. First off, the Appalachian League is comparable to the AZL more than it is to the NWL. Snider is doing this at rookie level while Colvin is doing this at Short Season A. It's a minor difference, but Colvin is facing better pitching and better defenses than Snider. On a related note, because Snider is down at such a low level and still developing, his flaws might not be so readily noteworthy. We've seen plenty of guys tear apart lower-level leagues, then collapse in on themselves when they hit High A, AA, or AAA. Colvin has at least proven himself at a higher level than Snider. Finally, Snider's BABIP is noticeably out of whack (.382). Given that his OPS is 1.248, I'd have to think his numbers will begin to decline at some point.

 

Snider's ceiling as a hitter is higher than Colvin's, especially given his combination of power and patience. Yet, the problem is, we simply don't have the same access to these guys as Hendry, Wilken, Riccardi, etc. If I could lay out all of the scouting information, medical histories, and so on, believe me, I would.

 

Yet, with maybe a few exceptions (who understandably won't due to job security), I don't think anyone on this board can adequately do all of that. It could be that Snider could become David Ortiz v2.0...or it could be that he balloons to 300 pounds and ends up out of baseball in two years. Colvin could become the next Jim Rice...or the next Adam Greenberg.

 

I have faith in Wilken on this one. I can only hope he proves me right.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

There are a few things to keep in mind. First off, the Appalachian League is comparable to the AZL more than it is to the NWL. Snider is doing this at rookie level while Colvin is doing this at Short Season A. It's a minor difference, but Colvin is facing better pitching and better defenses than Snider. On a related note, because Snider is down at such a low level and still developing, his flaws might not be so readily noteworthy. We've seen plenty of guys tear apart lower-level leagues, then collapse in on themselves when they hit High A, AA, or AAA.

 

That's not fair on Travis Snider, Outshined. Snider was drafted out of HS and is age 18. Colvin was drafted out of an ACC college and is age 21. Of course Snider is going to be at a lower level in the minors, but I can't see how that's a negative point against him. And Colvin is just a half-step higher than Snider - he too could fall apart at the higher levels of the minors.

 

You do make a fair point about the BABIP, and I'd like to see how Snider recovers from the wrist injury.

[imb]

I agree that at this point there's nothing we can do put hope for the best, but I dont see the harm in questioning the Colvin pick.

 

With Wilken in tow we all were primed for a productive draft. Didn't BP call the Wilken signing the best FA signing of the offseason? I believe that Wilken knows what he's doing, he certainly has a track record and he wouldn't have gotten the recognition that he has without producing in the past. What this thread is about, however, is that at the time of the draft, we all expected more than Colvin. The second he was drafted, the pick was immediately panned and questioned. Now, there are numbers that support the questioning of the pick.

 

I mean, if you wanted Snider over Colvin in June, how do you feel now? Before they started playing, all we had to go on were scouting reports, now we have scouting reports and a few months of numbers supporting Snider over Colvin.

[Outshined_One]

LEAVE ME ALONE! I'M IN DENIAL!!!!

 

:cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry:

 

;)

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Hey, I have faith in Wilken too.

 

I loved the Andersen, Renshaw, Huseby and Rundle picks. Not so hot on the Colvin pick, up and down on Samardzija.

[Guest]

Here's the way I'd put it:

 

It's not too early to question the pick. That was possible the moment the pick was announced.

 

However, it is way to early to come to any conclusions one way or another.

[baseball7897]

Hey, I have faith in Wilken too.

 

I loved the Andersen, Renshaw, Huseby and Rundle picks. Not so hot on the Colvin pick, up and down on Samardzija.

 

I hate the Samardzija signing. I think he is guranteed 9 million. That might be the highest amount of guranteed money ever given to a college baseball player.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Hey, I have faith in Wilken too.

 

I loved the Andersen, Renshaw, Huseby and Rundle picks. Not so hot on the Colvin pick, up and down on Samardzija.

 

I hate the Samardzija signing. I think he is guranteed 9 million. That is insane. That might be the highest amount of guranteed money ever given to a college baseball player.

 

He's got a $250,000 bonus. The rest of his contract (approx $7.25 million total) is based on how much he pitches over the next few years. So no, it's not the highest amount of guaranteed money given to a college baseball player.

[the splendid splinter]

Hey is Snider or Colvin close to the big leagues yet?

[the splendid splinter]

Just found out Colvin turns 21 next week and Snider turns 19 here soon, so I guess there's about 2 yrs difference and I've heard there's quite the difference between the Northwest and the Appy leagues!!

[Outshined_One]

BA named Travis Snider the #1 prospect in the Appy League.

 

WTG Cobs.

[NorthsideAvenger]

BA named Travis Snider the #1 prospect in the Appy League.

 

WTG Cobs.

 

Wake me up, when Snider reaches #1 prospect in ALL of minor league baseball. Until then, being the "best of a league" while impressive in itself, is still not the end all be all of a player's value/talent.

 

Do I think Snider would have been a great pick for the Cubs sure....but, I am still a believer that Colvin is going to be a heck of a player.

[Mephistopheles]

Well I can assure you I'd rather have best in a league than someone not be best in the league like Colvin.

[CoolHandLuke]

Well I can assure you I'd rather have best in a league than someone not be best in the league like Colvin.

 

Where do you think he will be on the top 20, if at all? I am excited to see the list tomorrow.

[Mephistopheles]

ummm off the top of my head

 

Matt Sulentic, Shane Lindsay and Mark Pawelek could be 1-2-3. Emmanuel Burris, Chad Tracy and Tyler Colvin could be in the running for top five. Brooks Brown and Aaron Breit could be there. There is probably a couple latin american products that I don't know about.

 

I see Colvin in the 5-10 range. Pawelek should be top 3. Dunno who else from the Cubs could make it. Maybe Sammy Baez.

[Outshined_One]

ummm off the top of my head

 

Matt Sulentic, Shane Lindsay and Mark Pawelek could be 1-2-3. Emmanuel Burris, Chad Tracy and Tyler Colvin could be in the running for top five. Brooks Brown and Aaron Breit could be there. There is probably a couple latin american products that I don't know about.

 

I see Colvin in the 5-10 range. Pawelek should be top 3. Dunno who else from the Cubs could make it. Maybe Sammy Baez.

 

I'd imagine Antonelli ends up in the Top 5. Granted, his lack of power hurts, but he put up some nifty numbers.

 

Canzler might get on that list based on his power alone.

[CoolHandLuke]

BA named Colvin the top prospect in the NWL! Pawalek #9

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/features/262517.html

[Mephistopheles]

Colvin is a loose, rangy athlete who earns physical comparisons to Shawn Green, another lefthanded-hitting outfielder drafted by Chicago scouting director Tim Wilken. He owns a tantalizing package of five average or better tools, and he should develop plus power as he fills out his wiry frame.

 

A small quote from their report on Colvin. Emphasize the last sentence. It's amazing what a 5 day hot streak in August can do for your projection...

[Outshined_One]

I'll admit to laughing out of surprise when I read that. That's a good way to shove the Snider thing back in my face. ;)

 

I'm looking forward to the next few years in terms of comparing Snider and Colvin to one another. Should be fun times!

 

Also, for you BA subscribers, get your questions in about Pawelek's fitness/stuff, debating over whether Colvin or Snider is a better prospect, and also anything else you can think of with their chat in a bit. :D

 

If you guys could be nice enough, short summaries of BA's scouting reports on Colvin and Pawelek along with excerpts from the chat would be most welcome. 8-[

[Mephistopheles]

post some questions to ask. Ill submit them on different names. I wonder if they do it by IP...

 

I've submitted.

 

Snider/Colvin

Samardzija

Colvin power

Other Hawks / Samardzija

[craig]

Back to the original point: It appears that Snider is the preferable prospect. I'd rather have Snider. Guys who can really hit, and who have plate discipline, are really valuable. But that does not make Colvin a big blunder or mistake. His ranking as top prospect in the smaller Northwest League suggests that BA at least views him at this point as a pretty good pick, too.

 

Northwest or somebody early on referred to Snider as a high-risk pick because he's a HS guy. The implication being that all HS guys are high-risk.

 

I'm not sure I agree with that. But even if he was then, I think even the 200-AB sample in Appy League puts to rest the notion that he's a high-risk might-be-total-bust notion now.

 

there are plenty of guys who throw pretty fast and have breaking balls even in teh appy league. Guys who go bust routinely manifest red-flags even at very low levels. Harvey did, Mike Mallory did, etc.. Granted, sometimes you have a Luis Montanez who looks fine in rookie and who then gets blitzed in A-. But usually if a guy can't process breaking balls and never will, that will already show itself in even rookie league.

 

Not so for Snider. I think he'll be a good one.

 

As I recall for Snider, the question wasn't so much his hitting. (Many toolsy HSers bust because they just can't hit and never do.) I think his question was body and position. And I do think it's possible that given how big he already is, as a teenager, you wonder whether he'll move defensivley like David Ortiz by the time he's 25 or 32. If he ends up limited to DH or bad 1B defensively, that significantly elevates the bar for how good he'll have to hit in order to be an asset.

[Mephistopheles]

Uhh report on Pawly

 

- Didn't touch the 96 MPH he touched last season

- Sat 88-92 touching 93, 94

- Potential for three plus pitches, but command is inconsistent on all three.

- Command is a work in progress

- Noisy delivery

[don_kessinger_was_good]

Uhh report on Pawly

 

- Didn't touch the 96 MPH he touched last season

- Sat 88-92 touching 93, 94

- Potential for three plus pitches, but command is inconsistent on all three.

- Command is a work in progress

- Noisy delivery

 

BUSTED PICK.

[ChiCubsFan]

When are they questions going to be answered?

[Outshined_One]

Uhh report on Pawly

 

- Didn't touch the 96 MPH he touched last season

- Sat 88-92 touching 93, 94

- Potential for three plus pitches, but command is inconsistent on all three.

- Command is a work in progress

- Noisy delivery

 

BUSTED PICK.

 

TOO EARLY TO TELL.