Oops part 2

[Mephistopheles]

Q: Kyle from Dubuque Iowa asks:

Where is Jeremy Papelbon?

A:

 

Aaron Fitt: Papelbon got some consideration as an aggressive, strike-throwing lefthanded reliever, but in the end he failed to make the cut because his stuff is fringy and he was old for the league at 23. He's got a good feel for pitching, his 87-88 mph fastball has some life to it and he's got an average slider, giving him a chance as a situational lefty. But it's not a very high ceiling.

 

Q: James from NIU asks:

Tyler Colvin was a surprise pick, after having seen him play in the Northwest League, does he seem like a justifiable 13th overall pick, also would he make the cubs top 10 prospects list?

A:

 

Aaron Fitt: He was a surprise pick, and it's already starting to look like he was an awful good pick. Scouting director Tim Wilken has a knack for finding talent, and he knew he wanted Colvin. The Cubs didn't pick again until the fifth round, and Colvin would certainly have been off the board by then, so he had to "reach" a bit for him at No. 13 overall. His tools are outstanding, and he still has plenty of projection left to his frame, contrary to what you might expect from a college junior. He also has very good makeup and a real chance to translate those big-time tools into production-- his summer in the NWL was a very encouraging start. I suspect he will make the cubs top 10, but I have not spoken with Jim Callis about that.

 

Q: Matt from Houston asks:

We've seen it with a bunch of Cubs prospects. They start off their careers well in the lower minors, but their utter lack of discipline catches up with them in advanced leagues. Tyler Colvin never looks to be an on-base guy. He didn't show great walk rates in college nor in the Northwest League. Shawn Green drew 70-80 walks a season. Also, isn't the 5 day hot streak in late August inflating his power numbers?

A:

 

Aaron Fitt: Colvin is an aggressive hitter, there's no doubt. At this point in his career, he is not going to work the count and rack up walks. But he has good pitch recognition, and I think you'll see a much improved strikeout-walk ratio as he refines his offensive game. And yes, Colvin's power numbers are boosted by a five-game stretch in late August-early September when he hit six home runs, but that just shows you what he's capable of. Remember, also, that these lists aren't based on statistics. It was nice to see Colvin hit 11 home runs, but our assessment of his plus raw power is not based on his 11 NWL home runs. It's based on his physical profile, his swing, etc.

 

Q: Tedward from NSBB.com asks:

Would Jeff Samardzija have been considered for the top 20 list if he played more this season? What is his ceiling? Thanks.

A:

 

Aaron Fitt: He certainly would have. People who saw Samardzija in his brief stint before he was called up to the Midwest League and then left for Notre Dame were very impressed with him. His fastball has easy mid-90s velocity with movement, he's got a plus changeup and feel for a slider. He definitely would have made the top 10 if he had qualified -- I'd certainly put him ahead of Pawelek. Ceiling for Samardzija is top half of the rotation starter.

 

If I've posted to many quotes from the chat, a mod can edit it.

[CoolHandLuke]

Q: Mark from Chicago asks:

Very surprised to see Tyler Colvin ranked #1 in the NWL. How would you compared him to Toronto's Travis Snider? Who's the better prospect?

A:

 

Aaron Fitt: For my money it's Colvin, a more complete player with bigger upside, though Snyder sure can hit.

 

Wow, this guy is obviously very much tools over performance. He later states that he thinks Colvin has a chance to crack the top 100.

[Mephistopheles]

Q: Walt Rybak from Park Ridge, Ill asks:

The Cubs drafted Pawelek based on the potential of 3 plus pitches and a fastball that touched 96mph. Why the drop in velocity this year? Does he still have the potential that BA thought when they ranked him the Cubs #2 prospect?

A:

 

Aaron Fitt: Pawelek showed up this spring in terrible shape, so instead of competing for a spot in the Midwest League like the Cubs expected him to, he was held back in extended spring training and sent to Boise. He's gotten stronger since the spring and has gotten his fastball velocity up to 93-94 on occasion, whereas there were times earlier in the season he was basically pitching in the mid-80s. The bigges reason for his drop in velocity might be his mechanics -- he has a long casting motion and lots of moving parts, and his delivery is inconsistent. If he can smooth out his mechanics, he could climb back into the mid-90s, but Boise manager Steve McFarland said he thinks Pawelek will probably continue to pitch in the low-90s, touching 94 now and then.

 

I didn't realize Pawly lost 8-10 MPH on his fastball earlier in the season. Something's fishy here.

 

Q: Bob from watertown, wi asks:

What kind of potenial does Canzler have?

A:

 

Aaron Fitt: He's got some pop, but his tools really don't stand out. His average pull power and playable defensive skills at third base give him a chance, but he's going to have to prove it over and over.

 

Q: Dan from Fayetteville asks:

Do you think Colvin will make the Top 100? What about any of the other prospects in the NW League?

A:

 

Aaron Fitt: I think Colvin, Lindsay and Sulentic all have a chance, but I doubt anyone else from the NWL will make it.

 

Q: Ryan from Chicago asks:

Has Mark Pawelek really fallen that much?

A:

 

Aaron Fitt: There are just lots of question marks for him. He's still a big lefty with upside, but no one was overly impressed with him in the NWL this year. It seems 2006 presented more questions than answers with Pawelek.

 

Cubs dominated chat. For sure.

 

 

Anyways, tomorrow is the MWL. The Cubs will have atleast one guy in it, Donnie Veal. Veal's probably in the 5-8 range behind McCutchen, Upton, Bruce, and Adenhart. He's right there with Jake McGee, Wade Davis and Colby Rasmus. The only other Cubs who has a chance to make it would be Mitch Atkins, but he'd be in the bottom 3 or 4 if he did, I think.

[Guest]

I think Veal has a chance to be above Adenhart. But those top 3 guys are likely top 15 overall prospects.

[NCCubFan]

Q: Walt Rybak from Park Ridge, Ill asks:

The Cubs drafted Pawelek based on the potential of 3 plus pitches and a fastball that touched 96mph. Why the drop in velocity this year? Does he still have the potential that BA thought when they ranked him the Cubs #2 prospect?

A:

 

Aaron Fitt: Pawelek showed up this spring in terrible shape, so instead of competing for a spot in the Midwest League like the Cubs expected him to, he was held back in extended spring training and sent to Boise. He's gotten stronger since the spring and has gotten his fastball velocity up to 93-94 on occasion, whereas there were times earlier in the season he was basically pitching in the mid-80s. The bigges reason for his drop in velocity might be his mechanics -- he has a long casting motion and lots of moving parts, and his delivery is inconsistent. If he can smooth out his mechanics, he could climb back into the mid-90s, but Boise manager Steve McFarland said he thinks Pawelek will probably continue to pitch in the low-90s, touching 94 now and then.

So Dusty doesn't have a monopoly on talking about movable parts. :D

[Laura]

I didn't realize Pawly lost 8-10 MPH on his fastball earlier in the season. Something's fishy here.

 

Yup.

 

I wonder what "terrible shape" means. I watched him pitch on Boise's on-line feed early on and he didn't look like he was fat or had gained a huge amount of fat-weight (that was early on). He's Mormon, so it's tough to think that he's taken to chain-smoking and boozing. Did he just waste away over the off-season? :?

[Mephistopheles]

Speaking of his religion, anyone know if he's going on a mission anytime soon?

[WrigleyField 22]

Speaking of his religion, anyone know if he's going on a mission anytime soon?

 

He will probably wait until after the Cubs ruin his career.

[Balsa]

Speaking of his religion, anyone know if he's going on a mission anytime soon?

I beleive it's encouraged, but not required.

 

But yeah, boozing wouldn't be his schtick. BYU is the dryest campus in the nation.

[ChiCubsFan]

Q: Mark from Chicago asks:

Very surprised to see Tyler Colvin ranked #1 in the NWL. How would you compared him to Toronto's Travis Snider? Who's the better prospect?

A:

 

Aaron Fitt: For my money it's Colvin, a more complete player with bigger upside, though Snyder sure can hit.

 

Wow, this guy is obviously very much tools over performance. He later states that he thinks Colvin has a chance to crack the top 100.

 

Wow, I wasn't expecting that answer when I asked that question.

[UBlink]

Q: Walt Rybak from Park Ridge, Ill asks:

The Cubs drafted Pawelek based on the potential of 3 plus pitches and a fastball that touched 96mph. Why the drop in velocity this year? Does he still have the potential that BA thought when they ranked him the Cubs #2 prospect?

A:

 

Aaron Fitt: Pawelek showed up this spring in terrible shape, so instead of competing for a spot in the Midwest League like the Cubs expected him to, he was held back in extended spring training and sent to Boise. He's gotten stronger since the spring and has gotten his fastball velocity up to 93-94 on occasion, whereas there were times earlier in the season he was basically pitching in the mid-80s. The bigges reason for his drop in velocity might be his mechanics -- he has a long casting motion and lots of moving parts, and his delivery is inconsistent. If he can smooth out his mechanics, he could climb back into the mid-90s, but Boise manager Steve McFarland said he thinks Pawelek will probably continue to pitch in the low-90s, touching 94 now and then.

So Dusty doesn't have a monopoly on talking about movable parts. :D

 

I don't have time to look it up but I remember last year Orel Hershiser using the "moving parts" description to describe the now Padre Chris Young [ERA 3.46]'s mechanics. Maybe it takes an Ivy League education to figure out how to control those moving parts.

[Balsa]

Chris Young's been doing pretty good this year. I think he has a solid future.

[UK1679666180]

I think Veal has a chance to be above Adenhart. But those top 3 guys are likely top 15 overall prospects.

 

I had Maybin, Bruce, Rasmus, Upton... & Adenhart, Davis, McGee, Veal.

[Guest]

I think Veal has a chance to be above Adenhart. But those top 3 guys are likely top 15 overall prospects.

 

I had Maybin, Bruce, Rasmus, Upton... & Adenhart, Davis, McGee, Veal.

They're not as high on Veal as I thought they would be based on earlier comments during the season.

[Outshined_One]

I think Veal has a chance to be above Adenhart. But those top 3 guys are likely top 15 overall prospects.

 

I had Maybin, Bruce, Rasmus, Upton... & Adenhart, Davis, McGee, Veal.

They're not as high on Veal as I thought they would be based on earlier comments during the season.

 

Perhaps they compiled these lists based more on performance at that league's level as opposed to overall?

[Mephistopheles]

Im not that high on Rasmus myself.

[Quakers]

I posted my opinion after watching the last few games of the NWL championship series. Colvin is much better than his stats would indicate. His defense is fantastic, great arm, speed, easy swing. Give him a little time. Peoria or Daytona next year?? I think Daytona.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

88-92!? I heard 91-94 from a few broadcasts earlier this season - his velocity and control went up after his brief spell in the bullpen (when he supposedly worked on his mechanics).

[UK1679666180]

I think Veal has a chance to be above Adenhart. But those top 3 guys are likely top 15 overall prospects.

 

I had Maybin, Bruce, Rasmus, Upton... & Adenhart, Davis, McGee, Veal.

They're not as high on Veal as I thought they would be based on earlier comments during the season.

 

Also, Davis struggled during the year as he velo dropped from sitting in the 91-93/reached 96 from when I seen him 88-90/topped 92 later on.

[TruffleShuffle]

I posted my opinion after watching the last few games of the NWL championship series. Colvin is much better than his stats would indicate. His defense is fantastic, great arm, speed, easy swing. Give him a little time. Peoria or Daytona next year?? I think Daytona.

 

Of course, none of those things you discussed there has any bearing on his approach at the plate, which is the concern shared by most of us who aren't high on him.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I posted my opinion after watching the last few games of the NWL championship series. Colvin is much better than his stats would indicate. His defense is fantastic, great arm, speed, easy swing. Give him a little time. Peoria or Daytona next year?? I think Daytona.

 

He'll be in Peoria, though he better finish be in Daytona by July-August.

 

By the way, the NWL 5 years ago:

 

FIVE YEARS AGO

1. J.J. Johnson, of, Boise (Cubs)

2. *Jesse Foppert, rhp, Salem-Keizer (Giants)

3. Julian Benavidez, 3b, Salem-Keizer (Giants)

4. *Angel Guzman, rhp, Boise (Cubs)

5. Jake Gautreau, 3b, Eugene (Padres)

6. *Dontrelle Willis, rhp, Boise (Cubs)

7. Corey Slavik, 3b, Boise (Cubs)

8. Matt Allegra, of, Vancouver (Athletics)

9. *Jason Bartlett, ss, Eugene (Padres)

10. *Jose Lopez, ss, Everett (Mariners)

[Mephistopheles]

88-92!? I heard 91-94 from a few broadcasts earlier this season - his velocity and control went up after his brief spell in the bullpen (when he supposedly worked on his mechanics).

 

From my experience, it seems BA only catches guys in west coast leagues once at best. They had Zach Duke hitting like 86-88 a few years back. He went to the east coast and he was in the low 90s iirc.