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USSoccer

By USSoccer,
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shnsajax Iowa Cubs

shnsajax

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
If they move the game, it's going to be decided this weekend, and its gonna go to Guatemala, Miami, Cancun (Atalante's stadium) or Chicago.

 

My money, fwiw, is on Chicago. Just a gut feeling.

 

All 4 of those sites would allow Honduras to outdraw the US. Well maybe not Chicago, but it would be close.

Chicago wouldn't be close. They'd get outdrawn 4-1. it just happened this summer.

 

I knew they would get outdrawn, forgot it was in Chicago :-).

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bukie All-Star

bukie

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

So, about seeding chances...

 

As of the latest FIFA rankings, the US is currently tied for 11th in line among teams for 7 seeds. Here's the order:

 

1. Brazil 59.7

2. Germany 58.7

3. Italy 56.7

4. Spain 56.0

5. England 52.0

6. France 48.3

6. Argentina 48.3

------------------------

8. Portugal 46.0

9. Netherlands 43.0

10. Mexico 38.0

11. Croatia/USA 35.0

 

There are currently 4 teams which have already clinched spots that the US will not pass: Brazil, Spain, England and the Netherlands. Italy just needs either a point v Ireland or a win v Cyprus, so it's safe to assume they're in as well and that the US will not pass them.

 

As for the others:

- Germany currently leads their qualifying group by 1 over Russia, and has a remaining away game v Russia. Very possible they finish second in their group and have to win a 2-leg playoff for a spot.

- France is currently second in their group and are likely to finish second also.

- Argentina is currently 5th in their group, but have a favorable setup to finish fifth, since Ecuador and Uruguay play each other and are unlikely to both finish ahead of Argentina. Really, the only way Argentina finish worse than fifth is with an Ecuador/Uruguay draw, and a Uruguay win v Argentina coupled with an Ecuador win at Chile. Not out of the realm of possibility, but very likely Argentina finishes at worst fifth.

- Portugal is currently 3rd in their group, 2 points out of second, with 2 games remaining at home. Likely they don't finish first, but could very well sneak into second.

- Mexico, we know about. The win at Saprissa likely locks up at worst second, and likely first in the qualifying group, unless they drop the game at T&T (and even then they'd likely have a spot locked up by then).

- Croatia is likely to finish second in their group.

 

It's a really slim possibility, but the only chance the USMNT has is to hope 5 of the following 6 things happen:

- Germany loses at Russia and loses their 2-leg playoff

- France loses their 2-leg playoff

- Argentina finishes 5th and loses a 2-leg playoff to Honduras/CR

- Portugal finishes 3rd or second and loses their 2-leg playoff

- Mexico loses at T&T and the US passes them on points

- The US wins both their remaining draws and beats out Croatia on points or Croatia loses their 2-leg playoff.

 

Their best bet, IMO, would be to try to win out and see if they can pass Croatia/Mexico in qualifying, and then just hope Germany/France/Portugal don't get matched up with each other in the Euro qualifying playoff, and then rooting for Greece, Slovenia, Bosnia and Ireland.

shnsajax Iowa Cubs

shnsajax

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
The seeding thing drives me nuts even though it puts the US closer than they really should be. Why is France 8th and Portgual 9th when they have a legit chance of missing out on the WC all together. Why Holland is currently behind Portugal, Argentina, and France is beyond me.
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Posted
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The seeding thing drives me nuts even though it puts the US closer than they really should be. Why is France 8th and Portgual 9th when they have a legit chance of missing out on the WC all together. Why Holland is currently behind Portugal, Argentina, and France is beyond me.

 

I can't wait for all of those teams to qualify, then we get drawn with a non-South Africa seeded team (obviously there's an 87.5 percent chance of this happening) along with Netherlands or Portugal.

bukie All-Star

bukie

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
The seeding thing drives me nuts even though it puts the US closer than they really should be. Why is France 8th and Portgual 9th when they have a legit chance of missing out on the WC all together. Why Holland is currently behind Portugal, Argentina, and France is beyond me.

I'm sure you know this, but seeding rankings are half based on FIFA rankings and half based on WC performances from 2002 and 2006 (2006 performance counts for 2/3 of this, 2002 for 1/3). So, the Netherlands not qualifying for the 2002 WC really kills their performance score (14, where 32 would be a perfect score), and the US finishing last in their group in 2006 really kills their performance score (13.7). Teams like Argentina (21), France (23.3) and Portugal (22.3), on the other hand, are really helped by their performance rating.

 

As for how the selection pods will work out, if neither Mexico nor the US make a seed, and Argentina does make a seed (OK, let's just assume all holds to form):

 

Seeds (Pod A): Brazil, Spain, England, Italy, Argentina, Germany, France, South Africa

Pod B (Europe): Netherlands, Portugal, Switzerland, Denmark, Greece, Serbia, Russia, Slovakia

Pod C (Asia/CONCACAF): Australia, Bahrain, North Korea, South Korea, Japan, USA, Mexico, Honduras

Pod D (Africa/CONMEBOL): Ivory Coast, Ghana, Cameroon, Algeria, Tunisia, Ecuador, Chile, Paraguay

 

So, potentially, the US could end up in a pool like Brazil, Netherlands, Ivory Coast, USA.

 

If, on the other hand, Costa Rica/Honduras win the CONMEBOL playoff, or one of Mexico/US gets a seed, the pods don't line up perfectly according to confederation, which could mean the US had a shot at an Asian team in their pod. Something akin to South Africa/Chile/Bahrain/USA would be best-case scenario.

shnsajax Iowa Cubs

shnsajax

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
The seeding thing drives me nuts even though it puts the US closer than they really should be. Why is France 8th and Portgual 9th when they have a legit chance of missing out on the WC all together. Why Holland is currently behind Portugal, Argentina, and France is beyond me.

I'm sure you know this, but seeding rankings are half based on FIFA rankings and half based on WC performances from 2002 and 2006 (2006 performance counts for 2/3 of this, 2002 for 1/3). So, the Netherlands not qualifying for the 2002 WC really kills their performance score (14, where 32 would be a perfect score), and the US finishing last in their group in 2006 really kills their performance score (13.7). Teams like Argentina (21), France (23.3) and Portugal (22.3), on the other hand, are really helped by their performance rating.

 

As for how the selection pods will work out, if neither Mexico nor the US make a seed, and Argentina does make a seed (OK, let's just assume all holds to form):

 

Seeds (Pod A): Brazil, Spain, England, Italy, Argentina, Germany, France, South Africa

Pod B (Europe): Netherlands, Portugal, Switzerland, Denmark, Greece, Serbia, Russia, Slovakia

Pod C (Asia/CONCACAF): Australia, Bahrain, North Korea, South Korea, Japan, USA, Mexico, Honduras

Pod D (Africa/CONMEBOL): Ivory Coast, Ghana, Cameroon, Algeria, Tunisia, Ecuador, Chile, Paraguay

 

So, potentially, the US could end up in a pool like Brazil, Netherlands, Ivory Coast, USA.

 

If, on the other hand, Costa Rica/Honduras win the CONMEBOL playoff, or one of Mexico/US gets a seed, the pods don't line up perfectly according to confederation, which could mean the US had a shot at an Asian team in their pod. Something akin to South Africa/Chile/Bahrain/USA would be best-case scenario.

 

Yeah I know, I just think the WC from 2002 has zero relevance, and the one from 2006 is minimal. Performance in any WC does rely on some luck simply based on the draw.

USSoccer Chicago Cubs

USSoccer

Old-Timey Member
Posted
  • Author
Posted

So, potentially, the US could end up in a pool like Brazil, Netherlands, Ivory Coast, USA.

 

This is exactly what's going to happen.

 

Sure can't wait for Mexico to end up in a pool with UAE, Siam, and Krakhozia so they stay in front of us in the seeding for the next 7 WC cycles.

 

This too.

shnsajax Iowa Cubs

shnsajax

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
According to the LA Times the US and Holland are in the process of scheduling a friendly in Holland next March. Exactly the types of friendlies that we need before SA.
wolf stansson Knoxville Smokies

wolf stansson

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Sure can't wait for Mexico to end up in a pool with UAE, Siam, and Krakhozia so they stay in front of us in the seeding for the next 7 WC cycles.

Is Tom Hanks eligible for Krakhozia? We should cap him just in case.

According to the LA Times the US and Holland are in the process of scheduling a friendly in Holland next March. Exactly the types of friendlies that we need before SA.

Yeah that Germany friendly in '06 was really helpful. You're right though. I'm just in a foul mood for reading that hypothetical seeding of Brazil, Holland, US and Cote d'Ivoire or however the snobby way to say it goes.

shnsajax Iowa Cubs

shnsajax

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Sure can't wait for Mexico to end up in a pool with UAE, Siam, and Krakhozia so they stay in front of us in the seeding for the next 7 WC cycles.

Is Tom Hanks eligible for Krakhozia? We should cap him just in case.

According to the LA Times the US and Holland are in the process of scheduling a friendly in Holland next March. Exactly the types of friendlies that we need before SA.

Yeah that Germany friendly in '06 was really helpful. You're right though. I'm just in a foul mood for reading that hypothetical seeding of Brazil, Holland, US and Cote d'Ivoire or however the snobby way to say it goes.

 

The potential seeding sucks as it allows traditional powers to stay in the top seed position regardless of how they perform in qualifying.

 

I think it will be good for the US to play a team that dominates in possession prior to the WC, thus why I think the matchup vs. Holland will be beneficial.

shnsajax Iowa Cubs

shnsajax

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

Torres could have his best season ever.

 

The u-20's looked terrible this morning. They had no touch, couldn't pass or string any possession, and the backline was weak. It could have changed in the 2nd half but I quit watching.

 

Dempsey was unlucky to not score and they played Arsenal great but not enough.

USSoccer Chicago Cubs

USSoccer

Old-Timey Member
Posted
  • Author
Posted

Also, I'll go on record saying that only Opara and Marosevic will be legit senior players from this group.

 

Adu got about 20 minutes worth of burn today and apparently played well.

 

Deuce should have scored today. He hit the post and had another saved very well by whateverhisnameis.

shnsajax Iowa Cubs

shnsajax

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

 

Could be an indication of whats to come? I wonder how differently they treat a WC Qualifier from a Club Champions League match.

Probably even more serious.

 

Thats my thought, but also with FIFA more willing to take away a club match over international.

shnsajax Iowa Cubs

shnsajax

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

 

Could be an indication of whats to come? I wonder how differently they treat a WC Qualifier from a Club Champions League match.

Probably even more serious.

 

Thats my thought, but also with FIFA more willing to take away a club match over international.

 

Now they are saying the match will be played.

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