Guzman/Marshall/Hill/Marmol Value: Trade/2007/Your...

[craig]

The Cubs have four prospect pitchers in Hill, Marshall, Marmol and Guzman.

 

It's strongly unlikely that the Cubs are going to leave three rotation spots open for them next summer. Hendry is certain to acquire at least one, and very possibly two, rotation pitchers over the winter, leaving two or perhaps only one rotation spot open for the prospects. (If Prior is healthy in April.)

 

It seems to me that one avenue would be to acquire one outside pitcher. Maybe a real good one (jason schmidt, Zito...), more likely a not so good one. Another avenue wold be to acquire a second outside pitcher, very possibly via trade. These four prospect pitchers provide some trade leverage for Hendry, too.

 

So, here are my 3 questions:

1. Rate the four prospects in terms of what you expect would be their 2007 effectiveness. (If you are trying to win next year, which one or two would you most want in the rotation?)

 

2. Rate them in terms of what you think their trade value is. (I'm Jim Hendry, I decide to sign jason Schmidt and then to acquire a youngish rotation pitcher one or two seasons from free agency. That pitcher is promising enough so that he'll cost somebody good. To get him, I'll need to trade one of the four prospects, plus additional but lesser prospect value. Which of those four guys will have the best trade value? (The same cold go for using one to trade for an outfielder).

 

3. Rate them in terms of how *YOU YOURSELF* value them, long term. Which would you be least willing to sacrifice in a trade for a talented young but somewhat estblished pitcher, or for a promising RFer? And which would you be most willing to sacrifice in a trade like that?

[rawaction]

I was thinking of this myself. I would definitely sign Jason Schmidt, and if Prior looks to be ready to go to start the season for a change, I would go with 2 young guys in the rotation.

 

But for next year, I think Hill and Marshall have the most value for the ML Cubs if they want to win. Marshall has the most ML experience of all of them, and hopefully, by the end of the year will have 20-25 starts. Hill is the oldest of the group and the most ready, IMO, to pitch to his full capability next year.

 

As for trade value, I think Marshall has the most at this point, due to his ML experience and the fact he's a lefty (and the youngest of the group, IIRC don't feel like looking it up). Guzman probably has the least, despite being the most talented, because of injury. Marmol v. Hill just depends on what another team wants. Young hard-throwing RH or mature LH.

 

Long-term, I would rank them: Marshall, Guzman, Marmol, Hill. All have more upside than Hill. All are younger. I put Marshall 1st because he's most likely at this point to reach his ceiling of the top 3 upsides.

 

 

Perfect scenario: 2007 rotation- Cubs sign Schmidt. Prior is healthy. Zambrano is Zambrano.

 

Then the Cubs can choose to sign Meche for #4 or go with 2 kids for the 4-5. I would look to trade Hill and Mateo, and 1 of Gallagher/Marmol for a big bat. That works better with Meche, as the 5th spot can go to Marshall with Guzman, Gallagher/Marmol, and Veal waiting in the wings.

[pitchcs]

Next Year's Value:

1. Hill

2. Marshall

3. Guzman

4. Marmol

 

Trade Value:

1. Marshall

2. Hill

3. Marmol

4. Guzman

 

My LT Value:

1. Marshall

2. Guzman

3. Marmol

4. Hill

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Next Year's Value:

1. Marshall - he and Hill are close

2. Hill

3. Guzman

4. Marmol

 

Trade Value:

1. Marmol - most upsides besides Guzman, doesn't have the injury problems of Angel

2. Marshall

3. Hill

4. Guzman

 

Long Term Value:

1. Guzman - best ceiling, I think injury problems will be limited going forward

2. Marshall

3. Marmol

4. Hill

 

I think Marmol is best served as a reliever at the end of the pen, which is why his long term value is lower. I'd be most willing to trade him or one of Marshall/Hill. I think Guzman's trade value is down compared to his value to the Cubs.

[Fanzones trumpet]

The Cubs have four prospect pitchers in Hill, Marshall, Marmol and Guzman.

 

It's strongly unlikely that the Cubs are going to leave three rotation spots open for them next summer. Hendry is certain to acquire at least one, and very possibly two, rotation pitchers over the winter, leaving two or perhaps only one rotation spot open for the prospects. (If Prior is healthy in April.)

 

It seems to me that one avenue would be to acquire one outside pitcher. Maybe a real good one (jason schmidt, Zito...), more likely a not so good one. Another avenue wold be to acquire a second outside pitcher, very possibly via trade. These four prospect pitchers provide some trade leverage for Hendry, too.

 

So, here are my 3 questions:

1. Rate the four prospects in terms of what you expect would be their 2007 effectiveness. (If you are trying to win next year, which one or two would you most want in the rotation?)

 

2. Rate them in terms of what you think their trade value is. (I'm Jim Hendry, I decide to sign jason Schmidt and then to acquire a youngish rotation pitcher one or two seasons from free agency. That pitcher is promising enough so that he'll cost somebody good. To get him, I'll need to trade one of the four prospects, plus additional but lesser prospect value. Which of those four guys will have the best trade value? (The same cold go for using one to trade for an outfielder).

 

3. Rate them in terms of how *YOU YOURSELF* value them, long term. Which would you be least willing to sacrifice in a trade for a talented young but somewhat estblished pitcher, or for a promising RFer? And which would you be most willing to sacrifice in a trade like that?

 

 

Very interesting questions Craig. In terms of 2007 effectivness, based on what I've seen, and allowing for projections, I'd rate it Hill, Guzman, Marshall and Marmol. Hill seems to me the best combination of talent, experience and--most importantly--health and durability. Guzman's been healthy this year, shows signs of breaking out and has sufficient experience and lights out talent. Marshall and Marmol are about equal for different reasons. Marshall's shown fine poise and good, though not great, stuff, but he's been hurt every year in the system and has never shown the ability to amass the # of innings necessary to be an effective ML starting pitcher. Marmol, has lights out talent, but doesn't belong in the major leagues now, or probably not part of next year. But the fact that he's holding his own in the major leagues right now despite his glaring lack of experience speaks volumes about his stuff.

 

In terms of trade value, I'd fudge the question by saying that it depends on Hill's performance the rest of the season. If he's lights out, he won't be traded under any conceivable circumstance. If he's good, or even OK, I'd say he still has the most value of any of the four, particularly since he's a lefty and could be a good bullpen guy. If he blows up, he falls behind the other three. Of the other three, I'd rate Marmol #2 slightly ahead of Guzman due to health, although in this case, it would really depend on the particular GM. I rate Marshall #4 because I believe that other GMs are gonna look at that health history and shy away.

 

On my valuations, again it's dependent on Hill's performance the rest of the season. Right now, I'd rate Hill, Guzman and Marmol about even with Marshall a distant fourth due to the aforementioned health issues.

 

It wouldn't surprise me if one of these guys goes in a package for Hendry favorite Austin Kearns over the winter. Kearns is a FA after next year, reportedly isn't ecstatic about Washington and Bowden is on record as seeking young pitching.

[snoodmonger]

This all depends on how Hill looks for the rest of the season. For argument's sake, I'll assume his performance is comparable to Marshall and Marmol's.

 

Next Year:

Marshall

Marmol (I think he looks just as ready as Marshall)

Hill

Gooz

 

Trade:

Hill

Marmol

Marshall

Gooz

 

LTV:

Marmol-stuff not as good as Gooz, but I'm not sold on Gooz's health.

Gooz

Marshall

Hill

[Handlebar McSkullet]

This all depends on how Hill looks for the rest of the season. For argument's sake, I'll assume his performance is comparable to Marshall and Marmol's.

 

Most logical way to go about this. If Hill continues to play like he has there should be little doubt that he should make the 07 rotation, or be a front runner.

 

07 Rotation

 

Zambrano

Zito/Schmidt/Or any solid veteran fa pitcher

Marshall

Prior

Hill

 

Trade value

 

*Gallagher would be higher than all I would think.

1. Marshall

2. Marmol

3. Hill

4. Guzman

 

Me My Self

 

1. Hill(His curve...)

2. Marmol

3. Marshall

4. Guzman

[Ding Dong Johnson]

2007:

1. Marmol

2. Marshall

3. Guzman

4. Hill

 

Trade value:

1. Marshall (that lefty magic)

2. Marmol

3. Hill

4. Guzman

 

Long term

1. Guzman

2. Marmol

3. Marshall

4. Hill

[CubinNY]

2007:

1. Marmol

2. Marshall

3. Guzman

4. Hill

 

Trade value:

1. Marshall (that lefty magic)

2. Marmol

3. Hill

4. Guzman

 

Long term

1. Guzman

2. Marmol

3. Marshall

4. Hill

 

Hill hater :D Seriously, I think GMs value lefties with upside more than any other *intangible* tool (I know, I know)

 

Obviously, the rankings are heavily dependent on performance for the rest of 2006

 

2007

Marshall

Hill

Marmol

Guzman

 

Trade value

Hill

Marshall

Guzman

Marmol

 

Long term

Guzman

Hill

Marmol (as a closer)

Marshall

[Mushimus]

Can we trust Hendry to make a smart trade? With the trade with the Dodgers the Rays have Guzman working out in left. It doesn't hurt to call the Rays on Crawford in the offseason.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

2007

1. Marmol/Marshall

3. Hill

4. Guzman

 

Trade Value

1. Marshall

2. Marmol

3. Hill

4. Guzman

 

Long Term

1. Marmol

2. Marshall

3. Hill

4. Guzman

[WindyCity]

2007

1. Marmol/Marshall

3. Hill

4. Guzman

 

Trade Value

1. Marshall

2. Marmol

3. Hill

4. Guzman

 

Long Term

1. Marmol

2. Marshall

3. Hill

4. Guzman

 

No love for Guzman?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

2007

1. Marmol/Marshall

3. Hill

4. Guzman

 

Trade Value

1. Marshall

2. Marmol

3. Hill

4. Guzman

 

Long Term

1. Marmol

2. Marshall

3. Hill

4. Guzman

 

No love for Guzman?

 

Injuries man. I've been on board with moving him to the pen since last year. I think he could work out well in that role, but even a good reliever doesn't have as much value as a decent starter, so he bottoms out on mine.

[Wrigley Rat]

I wrote mine with my top 10 pitchers in the organization:

 

2007:

1. Sean Marshall

2. Rich Hill

3. Carlos Marmol

4. Angel Guzman

5. Juan Mateo

6. Jae kuk Ryu

7. Sean Gallagher (could appear near the end of the season)

8. Randy Wells (relief pitcher - will get chance if he starts hot)

9. Donald Veal (shouldn't pitch in the majors in 2007)

10. Mark Pawelek (shouldn't pitch in the majors in 2007)

 

Trade Value this off-season:

1. Rich Hill

2. Sean Marshall

3. Mark Pawelek

4. Donald Veal

5. Sean Gallagher

6. Angel Guzman

7. Carlos Marmol

8. Juan Mateo

9. Randy Wells

10. Jae kuk Ryu

 

Long-Term (assumptions are based on average growth):

1. Angel Guzman (I still have confidence he will be great - three plus pitches)

2. Sean Marshall (lefty high-round draft pick with strong repertoire of pitches)

3. Rich Hill (control problems seem to be minor)

4. Sean Gallagher (should be ready by Sept '07)

5. Donald Veal (I need more proof before he moves up the list)

6. Carlos Marmol (low 90's FB - quick learner - if control improves - will move higher)

7. Mark Pawelek (has the stuff - needs to command it)

8. Randy Wells (nobody talks about him - I'd love him for my bullpen)

9. Juan Mateo (low 90's FB is only plus pitch - good control - closer???)

10. Jae kuk Ryu (has an outside chance still - he's young)

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Long-Term (assumptions are based on average growth):

1. Angel Guzman (I still have confidence he will be great - three plus pitches)

2. Sean Marshall (lefty high-round draft pick with strong repertoire of pitches)

3. Rich Hill (control problems seem to be minor)

4. Sean Gallagher (should be ready by Sept '07)

5. Donald Veal (I need more proof before he moves up the list)

6. Carlos Marmol (low 90's FB - quick learner - if control improves - will move higher)

7. Mark Pawelek (has the stuff - needs to command it)

8. Randy Wells (nobody talks about him - I'd love him for my bullpen)

9. Juan Mateo (low 90's FB is only plus pitch - good control - closer???)

10. Jae kuk Ryu (has an outside chance still - he's young)

 

1. Angel Guzman

2. Donnie Veal

3. Carlos Marmol

4. Sean Gallagher

5. Sean Marshall

6. Rich Hill

7. Mark Pawelek

8. Juan Mateo

9. Billy Petrick

10. Jae-Kuk Ryu

Edited August 11, 2006 by CaliforniaRaisin

[Outshined_One]

If we're talking overall ceiling, I have a hard time seeing Mark Pawelek not ranked #1 or #2. A lefty with that kind of stuff, poise, character, and so on can turn out to be incredible.

 

Whether or not he reaches that ceiling is another matter altogether.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

If we're talking overall ceiling, I have a hard time seeing Mark Pawelek not ranked #1 or #2. A lefty with that kind of stuff, poise, character, and so on can turn out to be incredible.

 

Whether or not he reaches that ceiling is another matter altogether.

 

My rankings aren't just on overall ceiling but on how likely they are to reach that ceiling.

[craig]

I'm surprised how low Hill has scored in the general valuations posted on this discussion. For me:

 

Next year value:

1. Hill

2. Marshall

3. Marmol

4. Guzman

 

Trade Value:

1. Hill

2,. Marshall (close)

3. Marmol

4. Guzman

The first three seem pretty close to me, and could vary considerably from one org to another. One GM might love Marmol's ceiling; another might be a believer in Hill's curve and AAA numbers; another might just want to have a safe 4th/5th starter who will throw strikes, and will prefer Marshall.

 

My Willingness to Trade:

1. Marmol

2. Marshall

3. Hill

4. Guzman.

 

Guzman has too many question marks to have much trade value. I don't expect him to turn out special; but there's still a chance, and I don't want to lose that for the sake of what I expect would be a limited trade return.

 

Of the other three, Hill's status seems most fluid. If he finishes the season strong, as in his last two starts and his minor-league numbers, I think he'll easily separate himself from marmol and Marshall. If he struggles, and has a bunch of disaster starts, he'll look worse than safer Marshall and big-stuff Marmol.

 

In making a trade, I'd be most willing to sacrifice Marmol. He's enough ahead of Guzman that I think he might center a deal for a serious player. But his control issues raise questions about how useful he'll be, both next year and beyond. Ditto for marshall. Marshall seems much safer to me than any of the other three. He'll keep the ball down, get some groundouts, not a wildman. But Marshall seems to have the least star potential of the four. A solid 4th starter is nice, for a team that doesn't have one. But there will be other guys who come along who can be solid 3rd/4th starters. Marshall isn't likely to go Dontrelle on us.

 

Hill I think maybe has a better chance than Marmol to be good next year and beyond, and a better chance than Marshall to become a real impact pitcher, whose loss you might regret for a long time.

[rawaction]

Long-Term (assumptions are based on average growth):

1. Angel Guzman (I still have confidence he will be great - three plus pitches)

2. Sean Marshall (lefty high-round draft pick with strong repertoire of pitches)

3. Rich Hill (control problems seem to be minor)

4. Sean Gallagher (should be ready by Sept '07)

5. Donald Veal (I need more proof before he moves up the list)

6. Carlos Marmol (low 90's FB - quick learner - if control improves - will move higher)

7. Mark Pawelek (has the stuff - needs to command it)

8. Randy Wells (nobody talks about him - I'd love him for my bullpen)

9. Juan Mateo (low 90's FB is only plus pitch - good control - closer???)

10. Jae kuk Ryu (has an outside chance still - he's young)

 

1. Angel Guzman

2. Donnie Veal

3. Carlos Marmol

4. Sean Gallagher

5. Sean Marshall

6. Rich Hill

7. Mark Pawelek

8. Juan Mateo

9. Billy Petrick

10. Jae-Kuk Ryu

 

1. Guzman

2. Pawelek

3. Veal

4. Gallagher

5. Petrick

6. Marshall

7. Marmol

8. Hill

9. Mateo

10. Ryu

[Shavo]

THE CUBS HAVE SO MANY PITCHING PROSPECTS.

[Mephistopheles]

Correction: The Cubs have so many pitching prospects who have serious drawbacks that involve the word "if"