Who's our #2 pitcher next year???

[goonys evil twin]

he was certainly made out to be a must have at any cost by several people on this board along with bradley.

 

His OBP is a must have on this team. I wouldn't have been so hot after him if this team wasn't so pathetically lacking in the vital stat. I was a big Giles fan back in the day, but cooled as he aged. It wasn't until Hendry passed on all options and left this team with inevitable failure that I once again picked up the Giles bandwagon. This team is desperate for OBP, but they don't have a ton of talent to trade. The only thing they have is money.

[CubColtPacer]

That's true-there are some other examples of that. The 2002 Braves had plenty of sub .700 OPS's-now, these Braves had several different starters (they only had 5 people get over 350 at-bats) but 1 of those 5 and 4 others with at least 200 at-bats had under .700 (2 of those can be combined though-Javy and Blanco both had under .700 from the catcher position). Houston just about did it in 2004. The Cardinals also have 3 this year (Eckstein, Molina, and Miles). It's actually not all that uncommon-and just about every team I looked at had 2 under .700 (I looked at all the playoff teams that were not the Red Sox or Yankees).

 

2 under .700 isn't bad for any team. Including Eckstein into that isn't fair either given his role is to get on base and he does that pretty well, not ideal but good enough to not become a weakness.

 

But, if have players with weak OBPs (top of the order hitters) and weak OPS (btm of the order) there has to be extreme compensation by having a great 3-4-5-6. From a cost standpoint, it's more difficult to obtain a great 3-4-5-6 than a balanced lineup.

 

That's certainly true, and believe me, I am a big proponent that they go out and sign a second baseman rather than have Cedeno play there next year. I'm just saying it won't absolutely kill us or have us to necessarily have the worst offense next year-I think we already have a good 3/4/5 (Lee/Ramirez/Barrett)-and a good 7 for next year (Jones/Murton Platoon). We need to sign a player in LF that will be very good in the 6 spot (or the 5 and Barrett can move to 6). If we do that, we could still be a decent offense even with Pierre, Izturis, and Cedeno. If we can get both a LF and a second baseman (and if the LF is great, the second baseman doesn't have to light the world on fire, just be pretty good), then we would be down to 2 possible sub .700 players (and those 2 could certainly put up .700 or more-Pierre is at .700 this year, and we will see how Izturis is at the end of the year this year when he gets some at bats for this year), and I think we would have the potential of having a very good offense.

[baseball7897]

They won't get Schmidt or Zito. They will sign an expensive, yet ineffective innings eater. Mark Prior will start game 2 of the season.

 

Prior is guranteed to start the season on the DL.

 

Anything else you can guarantee?

 

I can gurantee you Hendry will make a offer to Zito, but Zito wont except it. Then Hendry will go the cheap way, and sign Padilla.

 

Marquis is a option if you ask me. He is still young, has a live arm, and throws a heavy sinker. I just think he would get a offer he cant refuse from another team though.

[mg420]

he was certainly made out to be a must have at any cost by several people on this board along with bradley.

 

His OBP is a must have on this team. I wouldn't have been so hot after him if this team wasn't so pathetically lacking in the vital stat. I was a big Giles fan back in the day, but cooled as he aged. It wasn't until Hendry passed on all options and left this team with inevitable failure that I once again picked up the Giles bandwagon. This team is desperate for OBP, but they don't have a ton of talent to trade. The only thing they have is money.

 

is a .744 ops worth 10 mil a year? imo, the teams failure had more to do with them counting on wood & prior yet again and lee's freak injury.

[goonys evil twin]

They won't get Schmidt or Zito. They will sign an expensive, yet ineffective innings eater. Mark Prior will start game 2 of the season.

 

Prior is guranteed to start the season on the DL.

 

Anything else you can guarantee?

 

I can gurantee you Hendry will make a offer to Zito, but Zito wont except it. Then Hendry will go the cheap way, and sign Padilla.

 

Marquis is a option if you ask me. He is still young, has a live arm, and throws a heavy sinker. I just think he would get a offer he cant refuse from another team though.

 

Are you poo-pooing the idea of Padilla but then calling for Marquis? They are pretty similar pitchers, with Padilla likely having a slight advantage and a higher upside.

[UK1679666180]

If we can get both a LF and a second baseman (and if the LF is great, the second baseman doesn't have to light the world on fire, just be pretty good), then we would be down to 2 possible sub .700 players (and those 2 could certainly put up .700 or more-Pierre is at .700 this year, and we will see how Izturis is at the end of the year this year when he gets some at bats for this year), and I think we would have the potential of having a very good offense.

 

I used this phrase in a previous thread.

 

Too many assumptions again.

 

I don't see any great LF'ers avail., Lee is the best, will be costly, and there will be a bidding war.

 

You're assuming Barrett will duplicate or come close to what he has done this year.

 

If Pierre produces like he has done in '05-'06 with Cedeno or Izturis hitting 2nd, the Cubs will struggle to score runs.

 

If I was to build a line-up going into next year, I'd try to avoid best case scenarios as the basis of how the offense will do. Will do and could do are different.

Edited August 3, 2006 by UK

[pitchcs]

I'm sure this has been discussed before, but I'll post anyways.

 

I am a big Jason Schmidt fan and always have been when he's healthy. But, does anybody think that Wrigley Field just isn't the right place for him to pitch being a fly ball pitcher?

 

Granted, I understand that the wind always blowing out is a myth, but like we all know there are days when it can just suck to pitch there. Is that enough of a concern to take into account and not offer that much $$ to Schmidt, or is he still worth it?

[goonys evil twin]

he was certainly made out to be a must have at any cost by several people on this board along with bradley.

 

His OBP is a must have on this team. I wouldn't have been so hot after him if this team wasn't so pathetically lacking in the vital stat. I was a big Giles fan back in the day, but cooled as he aged. It wasn't until Hendry passed on all options and left this team with inevitable failure that I once again picked up the Giles bandwagon. This team is desperate for OBP, but they don't have a ton of talent to trade. The only thing they have is money.

 

is a .744 ops worth 10 mil a year? imo, the teams failure had more to do with them counting on wood & prior yet again and lee's freak injury.

 

Generally no, but would he have that with the Cubs? Probably not. He not only has the drag of Petco, but he no longer gets the benefit of Coors, which has gone pitcher friendly this year (wet balls or something).

 

Blaming injuries is weak. This team was set up for failure from the beginning. They guaranteed another low OBP year, and had questioable pitching situation. Lee's freak injury just brought out the worst in them, otherwise they'd be just a slightly below average team other than a horrible team. They've played their best this season without Lee doing a thing.

[goonys evil twin]

If I was to build a line-up going into next year, I'd try to avoid best case scenarios as the basis of how the offense will do. Will do and could do are different.

 

That's how Hendry builds his teams. If everything works out, they should be okay. But everything doesn't work out. You can't say, well, this guy hit .300 two years ago, so if he gets back to that we can be good. You can't say, this guy hit .355 with RISP last year, even though he was just .285 overall, so all he has to do is repeat that and we'll be fine. Smart people realize numbers with RISP are not typically maintained over time.

 

You have to build a team expecting setbacks. You need multiple high OBP players, multiple power threats and bench players that actually do something good besides field a position.

[soccer10k]

if we are going to seriously try to contend we must sign a real live stud to back z. we can not hope on a live arm or a comeback. and yes jim you will have to overpay to get your guy...but you have to do it! we will be without maddux and wood 's money. we have more than enough to sign a stud and then still get someone like wolf. i would niot mind a gamble on the second guy, as we will be overpaying for the first. we really have to start thinking that prior may never be himself again. he is no where near a no. 2 and is probably only ahead of hill right now in the rotation. we simply can not run out a 95 mil dollar payroll with 4questions on the staff and 4 questions in the field.

i would like zito.

that would give us:

zambrano

zito

wolf/padilla

prior/marmol

marshall

 

if you sign zito and another pitcher it is then time to package murton,hill,guzman or marmol, cedeno or isturis for some serious lineup help.

it simply would not make sense to sign 2 free agents for at least 3 years probably 4 and to keep 3 prospects that are pretty much ready to go. add in that you have miller still rehabbing cheaply. that's pretty much why i don't think hendry will sign a stud unless they deal prior.

perhaps we could package 2 pitchers and a ss for tejada.

 

my guess is... we piss away all the value we have in the minors end up giving away guzman,marmol and hill(and murton and cedeno) in two years, and only sign someone like meche for too much and hope prior and miller are healthy.

 

There is absolutely no way the Cubs get Zito. He's going to either New York (both teams), Boston, Anaheim, LA. No way he comes to Chicago.

[badgercub]

I am totally opposed to the idea of thinking of counting Miller in addition to the fact that he is a free agent after the season and is not even under the Cubs control. So unless Hendry can sign him to another cheap one year deal and give him a chance to make the team in Spring Training, his name should be nothing but an afterthought.