Angel Guzman Leaves Iowa Game With Injury

[CubsWin]

Beat me by four minutes on that post Vance. Google is a wonderful thing.

I tried Google.

 

Did I miss it? What should I have put into the search engine?

[synergy]

Are you sure he evens wants to play for the Cubs? At least Kerry Wood I know does. I'm just saying Cubs have been depending on these 2 starters the last couple of years and they have been on the DL most of the time. it would be okay if he's the #4 or #5 pitcher, but he's the #2 pitcher after Zambrano. Then who we replace Prior with.....freaking [expletive]-chested Rusch and 3 rookies. If we're going to keep Prior next year, we have to bring a top of the line starter. Otherwise we'll probably go into the next season with Prior injured again at the beginning.

[Mephistopheles]

Guys, ESPN isn't the best place to go...neither is prosportsdaily.

 

The way you make it sounds it seems like it could be an elbow injury and I wouldn't be at all shocked if he goes back under the knife.

Wow. You can get an elbow injury from his post?

 

It's from a few things. The last couple of seasons he has had a forearm injury a lot. Forearm injurys often hide elbow problems. The pain from the forearm creeps up. TJ is caused when the UCL is gradually weakened. Then on one pitch, usually a fastball, it is snapped. With the way he was dominating it seems to make sense because he had to have quick arm action. As mentioned blisters is another likely scenario. I love Angel so I certainly don't want this to be serious.

[cubfan1954]

There is a somewhat confusing quote from the Iowa manager in the Des Moines Register:

 

Iowa lost starting pitcher Angel Guzman in the fourth inning due to what Quade said was a tight forearm.

 

Guzman hit Oklahoma's second batter of the night with a pitch, then struck out six of the next seven batters during Iowa's early offensive success. He struck out eight batters, playing 3innings.

 

"He's a guy who is going to come in and play an inning or two at most," Quade said. "He threw good."

[Jon]

Yeah, that doesn't make much sense in that context. I wonder if he was talking about Cherry.

 

Here's what theRedHawks' release had to say:

Iowa pitching struck out 15 RedHawks, a season high for Oklahoma. Cubs starter Angel Guzman fanned eight in 3 2/3 innings before leaving with cramping in his right arm, according to Iowa Cubs personnel.

[E.J.]

Yeah, that doesn't make much sense in that context. I wonder if he was talking about Cherry.

 

Here's what theRedHawks' release had to say:

Iowa pitching struck out 15 RedHawks, a season high for Oklahoma. Cubs starter Angel Guzman fanned eight in 3 2/3 innings before leaving with cramping in his right arm, according to Iowa Cubs personnel.

 

Didn't Guzman have problems last year or the year before with his right forearm? He was out for quite a while with the problem, right?

 

Hopefully it was just cramping like the article says.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Yeah, that doesn't make much sense in that context. I wonder if he was talking about Cherry.

 

Here's what theRedHawks' release had to say:

Iowa pitching struck out 15 RedHawks, a season high for Oklahoma. Cubs starter Angel Guzman fanned eight in 3 2/3 innings before leaving with cramping in his right arm, according to Iowa Cubs personnel.

 

Didn't Guzman have problems last year or the year before with his right forearm? He was out for quite a while with the problem, right?

 

Hopefully it was just cramping like the article says.

 

He missed most of last season with the forearm injury.

[craig]

Zambrano has had forearm cramping and come out, as I recall. Usually with no next-start harm. Guzman had forearm stuff last year that basically cost him the entire season.

 

Who knows this time. Hopefully it's the no-real-problem Z-type thing.

 

I would think that given his history, the Iowa management would be on orders to be very, very careful with him. If in doubt, I'd assume they'd pull him.

 

I certainly hope so. I think he has shown some hints that he may be figuring some things out as the season has progressed. I'd sure like to see him continue that over the remaining few weeks of the farm year. But at this point it wouldn't take too much of a DL to effectively end his farm season. (If he comes back on August 20, for example, he wouldn't exactly be throwing 6-inning starts right off the bat...)

 

Guzman is out of options after this season. So the Cubs will need to either keep him on their active roster (or DL) next spring, or trade him, or expose him to waivers. If he ends this year on the DL, I can't imagine his trade value will be much. And if he ends this year on the DL, I also can't imagine the Cubs being able to plan on him for anything more than the 12th pitcher for next spring, the guy who Dusty would use about as much a Dusty used him when he was 12th pitcher last month.

[Jon]

It wasn't terribly hot out last night, but it may very well just be a case of dehydration (like Zambrano).

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I certainly hope so. I think he has shown some hints that he may be figuring some things out as the season has progressed. I'd sure like to see him continue that over the remaining few weeks of the farm year.

 

According to the announcers and the Iowa manager, Guzman's slider has been better the last two times out than it has been all year (those 8 Ks in 3.2 innings make it sound like it).

[craig]

I certainly hope so. I think he has shown some hints that he may be figuring some things out as the season has progressed. I'd sure like to see him continue that over the remaining few weeks of the farm year.

 

According to the announcers and the Iowa manager, Guzman's slider has been better the last two times out than it has been all year (those 8 Ks in 3.2 innings make it sound like it).

 

Thanks, raisin. His GB ratios this year have been terrible, which fits both with a no-sink fastball but also with no breaking pitch. He needs to have a breaking pitch to mix in with his not-very-lively fastball and his could-be-good change. if the slider could do the trick, that could help him a ton.

[craig]

I certainly hope so. I think he has shown some hints that he may be figuring some things out as the season has progressed. I'd sure like to see him continue that over the remaining few weeks of the farm year.

 

According to the announcers and the Iowa manager, Guzman's slider has been better the last two times out than it has been all year (those 8 Ks in 3.2 innings make it sound like it).

 

Thanks, raisin. His GB ratios this year have been terrible, which fits both with a no-sink fastball but also with no breaking pitch. He needs to have a breaking pitch to mix in with his not-very-lively fastball and his could-be-good change. if the slider could do the trick, that could help him a ton.

 

For years he's been hyped as a sinker/curveball artist, all he needs is to get healthy but if he's healthy he'll be special. Would be ironic if he does turn out healthy, but instead of the much discussed sinker/curveball guy, turns out to really be a slider/no-sink guy instead.

[Mephistopheles]

Guzman is out of options after this season.

 

Nope. He will be granted a fourth year of options due to the time missed to injuries.

[Jon]

Yay:

Cubs.com[/url]"]Minor matters: Angel Guzman struck out eight over 3 2/3 innings in Triple-A Iowa's 5-4 loss to Oklahoma on Tuesday, but he had to leave the game because of cramps in his forearm. Cubs athletic trainer Mark O'Neal said the problem was dehydration.

[Brian]

Do they not teach proper hydration in Venezuela?

[craig]

Guzman is out of options after this season.

 

Nope. He will be granted a fourth year of options due to the time missed to injuries.

 

Thanks very much! That is excellent news. And that changes the scene considerably in affecting whether Hendry needs to assume him into the roster for next spring.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Guzman is out of options after this season.

 

Nope. He will be granted a fourth year of options due to the time missed to injuries.

 

Wow, I didn't know MLB did that, but that's cool.

 

Yay:

Cubs.com[/url]"]Minor matters: Angel Guzman struck out eight over 3 2/3 innings in Triple-A Iowa's 5-4 loss to Oklahoma on Tuesday, but he had to leave the game because of cramps in his forearm. Cubs athletic trainer Mark O'Neal said the problem was dehydration.

 

Phew.

[Mephistopheles]

I didn't know the rule myself, but I read it here awhile ago.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I didn't know the rule myself, but I read it here awhile ago.

That's very good to know.

[abuck1220]

it has been absolutely miserable this week in des moines...heat indexes were up in the 110-120 range for parts of iowa, and power was out where i live monday night. probably had something to do w/ it.

[minnesotacubsfan]

thank god for cramps....

 

think it spossible Guz coould see the rotation next year if he put up spectacular #'s for the rest of the season>?

[Lefty]

thank god for cramps....

 

think it spossible Guz coould see the rotation next year if he put up spectacular #'s for the rest of the season>?

 

That plan didn't seem to work for Rich Hill.

[Jon]

According to the Des Moines Register, Guzman is not expected to miss a start.

 

And this is from one of Bruce's articles:

Pitching updates: Angel Guzman, who saw time with the Cubs earlier this year, left Tuesday’s start for Class AAA Iowa with what was reported as cramps in his right forearm.

 

Pitching coach Larry Rothschild said Guzman experienced “overall body cramps."

 

If Guzman doesn't see the big league rotation before September, will the Cubs shut him down when Iowa's season finishes and end his season early? Or will they try to get him some starts?

[craig]

I didn't know the rule myself, but I read it here awhile ago.

 

Thanks much for that link, kc. The article was unclear on some details, but was quite helpful and specified several finesse rules I hadn't appreciated. 1) that <20 days down doesn't count (crucial because if Novoa survives the season, then I think this season won't count), 2) the 5-full-years bit that takes Aardsma off the hook, and Guzman.

 

Questions for you:

1. You state that Guzman will get an extra year. That link did not explicitly say so, it only speculated that perhaps it might. I'm trusting that you used the principles in that article, looked at Guzman's actual career, and figured it out yourself?

 

2. If so, could you detail your analysis on Guzman? He's obviously been on options for three years, 2004, 2005, and 2006. If he's got more, will it be one more, or perhaps even two? And if so, on what grounds?

a) the authors suggested this "five full season" bit, in which a season requires 60 days on a roster. I'd think Guzman will probably have completed his 5 full seasons this year?

2001 Boise, 77 innings. year one

2002 Lansing/Daytona, 156 innings. Year two.

2003 WTenn/surgery: 15 starts, 90 innings. year three. That must have included at least 60 days on roster, so unambiguous.

2006 Cubs/Iowa, no brainer, Year four.

2005: 18 innings, Mesa/Peoria. No way he got to 60 days. No brainer, that won't count against.

2004: Key year, if he spent 60 days on rosters, that would bump his years to 5 and the 5-year thing wouldn't apply. But did he? 11 starts, 48 innings between Daytona and WTenn. That might come pretty close to 60 days on those teams. However,I'm guessing that it probably doesn't count as a year? Probably the first 30 days at Daytona were registered as "injury rehab" games, and thus wouldn't as regular roster days?

 

My guess: indeed, he's a year short of 5 "full" years, and qualifies for an extra options year on that basis. Is that your thinking?

 

b) An alternative way in which he might have one or perhaps even more options years left. The article suggests that if a guy is not on option for 20 days in a given season, it doesn't count as an options year. If I'm understanding that correctly, which of Guzman's years *would* actually count against him?

2006: absolutely, obviously. One options year down.

2005: 4 Mesa starts, 2 Peoria starts. Combined, they sum to >20 days. But, if the Mesa starts were "rehab" starts rather than actual "on option" starts, then I think 2005 would *not* qualify as an options year. The team two choices with injured prospects. They can option them, then put them on DL. The time then does not count towards big-league service, and they aren't paid big-league salary. But it counts as option. Or, you keep the guy on big-league roster and DL; no options cost, but service time and salary are big-league. (I think.) Anyway, I'm certain that Guzman was on the big-league DL last year. I doubt he was on options for even 20 days. If I'm correct, 2005 wouldn't count against his options.

2004: 11 starts between Daytona and WTenn. On 5-day interval, that's gotta get to at least 55 days. Even if 30 were rehab days rather than option days, that would still leave at least 25 option days. So if I'm correct, 2004 would unambiguously count against him.

 

Long summary: Guzman probably has one more year, no more no less, whether by the "five full seasons" clause or by the "3 seasons on at least 20-days of option..." clause.

 

Agreed?

 

Tangent question:

a) Do you know when the statute of limiations on options kicks in? At some point, you can't farm a guy without exposing to waivers even if a guy does have option year left. This was true for Ohman in 2005. At what point does it become impossible to unilaterally send a guy to the minors, without giving other teams a shot to claim him?

b) In that article, they say Ohman had one option as of 2006. But they don't list him for 2007. I assume if he has one now, he'll still have one next year. Even though it isn't relevant, and even though they couldn't exercise it even if they wanted to because somebody would absolutely enter a claim for him once he was exposed on revocable waivers.

[Jon]

A little more on Guzman:

Cubs.com[/url]"]Pitcher Angel Guzman (3-4, 4.01 ERA) had to leave his last start because of cramps in his forearm, but Quade said the right-hander could start Sunday. The problem was dehydration. Guzman has scrapped his curve and is sticking with his slider. Quade said the young pitcher also is throwing regularly at 93, 94 mph.

I'd be interested to know when they made that decision.

 

And it doesn't look as bleak for Ryu:

Jae Kuk Ryu (3-6, 3.87 ERA) twisted his ankle covering first base, but has been able to throw and should not be sidelined long, Quade said.