Morgan makes sense

[rsmoler]

While I can't stand Joe Morgan and he is decidely anti-Cub, he echoed what we've been saying all along on this board regarding how Hendry put the club together the last couple of years. His comment was that Hendry keeps counting on Prior and Wood, when he should be constructing a club that assumes they are out and then takes anything they give us as gravy. He also intimated that the idea that the Cubs would carry in their line-up only two guys that can hit the ball out on a regular basis when they play in Wrigley Field is ludicrous. That's why the Cubs have such a poor record at home. All these visiting clubs come into Wrigley and hit twice as many homers as the Cubs do. Baker said the same thing in the brief interview they had with him.

 

I used to be a big fan of Hendry's and somewhat anti-Baker, but I've come to believe that Hendry is a lot more at fault for what's happened recently than Baker is. The club was fundamentally flawed when the season started and in retrospect, what has happened could probably have been predicted.

 

The easy answer of course is to trade for or sign two big bats and a number 2 pitcher sometime between now and beginning of next year. A couple of guys with decent on base percentages for the top of the line-up would also be helpful. Hendry has good young pitchers, Maddux, Jacques Jones, Walker, Rusch, Williamson, Nevin, Pierre and others along with some deep pockets to get the job done with. The only guys I would absolutely keep are:

 

Zambrano

Ramirez

Lee

Barrett

Eyre

Howry

Dempster

 

Unfortunately, I just don't have much faith in Hendry and I fear that by the beginning of next year, little of what needs to get done will be accomplished. I pray Hendry proves me wrong.

[Tracer Bullet]

The Cubs need guys with high OBP. They don't need more "power hitters" who can't get on base regularly. Sure, if they could bring in a guy like Dunn, who gets on base at a great clip AND hits for power - fine. But don't go looking for power and say "if we get a couple high OBP guys, that's just icing."

 

The reason the Cubs suck is b/c they don't score runs. They don't score runs b/c they don't get enough guys on base.

[BigbadB1679666149]

The Cubs need guys with high OBP. They don't need more "power hitters" who can't get on base regularly. Sure, if they could bring in a guy like Dunn, who gets on base at a great clip AND hits for power - fine. But don't go looking for power and say "if we get a couple high OBP guys, that's just icing."

 

The reason the Cubs suck is b/c they don't score runs. They don't score runs b/c they don't get enough guys on base.

 

A lot of those power guys provide good OBP, though. A power guy with a good OBP is better than a non power guy with a good OBP.

[Abe Frohman]

Remember a few years back when Jim Thome, if I am not mistaken, ASKED Hendry to meet him to talk about the possibilities of him being a Cub? I realize that at the time he was an injury liability, but that is the kind of guy you want on your team.

 

IMO, Hendry has done some great things for the Cubs - but the past offseason was a bust as far as being creative and getting some much needed power. Kudos for getting a good leadoff hitter in Pierre (which so far has been a flop despite his recent production). Kudos for putting a good bullpen out there.

 

Hendry, IMO, should definately do some wheeling and dealing to clean out the big salaries that aren't producing. The coaching staff seems to be a joke, and the minor league system is proving that players are not getting solid fundamental training.

 

Who is to blame?

[CubColtPacer]

The Cubs need guys with high OBP. They don't need more "power hitters" who can't get on base regularly. Sure, if they could bring in a guy like Dunn, who gets on base at a great clip AND hits for power - fine. But don't go looking for power and say "if we get a couple high OBP guys, that's just icing."

 

The reason the Cubs suck is b/c they don't score runs. They don't score runs b/c they don't get enough guys on base.

 

Ok, I'll give you a team of 8 Omar Visquel's production of this year (.374 OBP) and I'll take 8 Ryan Howards (.344 OBP). My team will score many more runs then your team will over a season. While my team gets on base at a .3 less clip, it will usually take only 1 or 2 hits to drive runners home, while it takes your hitters normally at least 3 hits in order to get your runners home. Since you have a less than 1 in 2 chance of getting on base with each runner, the most likely result of each inning will be for you to get 1 or 2 hits and no runs. We will be more likely to get 1 hit then 2, but my team will hit many solo home runs and 2 run homers and outscore your team. Now, would I want either of these teams? No-because there should be a balance of high OBP hitters and great power hitters, no matter how you can get them. Mathematically, does slugging matter as much as OBP? Yes-that's why OPS is the true measure of run production, because it combines OBP and slugging equally. If you look at the correlation between runs scored and OBP or slugging, slugging matches up just as well with runs as OBP does. So why is it assumed that OBP is the more important of the two stats, instead of giving each their equal place?

[CubsBullsBears]

Any moron can see that we have no boppers and that Hendry counts on the glass doll twins. Joe Morgan is still an idiot, anti-Cubs bigot, and needs to be punched in the face

[Ding Dong Johnson]

I wouldn't trade with Joe Morgan unless he was getting fleeced.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I think it's worth pointing out that Morgan preceded his astonishingly sensical ramblings by uttering some of the most hilariously stupid things he has ever said, capped off when he called the ESPN stat department liars and pledged to (if you're standing, sit down) look it up to check.

[RonnieWooWooSanto]

I think it's worth pointing out that Morgan preceded his astonishingly sensical ramblings by uttering some of the most hilariously stupid things he has ever said, capped off when he called the ESPN stat department liars and pledged to (if you're standing, sit down) look it up to check.

 

Out of curiosity, which stat(s) was this in regards to?

[badger1679666666]

I think it's worth pointing out that Morgan preceded his astonishingly sensical ramblings by uttering some of the most hilariously stupid things he has ever said, capped off when he called the ESPN stat department liars and pledged to (if you're standing, sit down) look it up to check.

 

Out of curiosity, which stat(s) was this in regards to?

 

Jones being 0-54 when in an 0-2 count.

[snoodmonger]

Morgan's weird, lucid moment tonight reminded me of when Will Ferrell beats James Carville in a debate in Old School. I could totally imagine Morgan shaking his head dizzily after that and muttering, "Wha happened? I think I just blacked out."

[soccer10k]

I think it's worth pointing out that Morgan preceded his astonishingly sensical ramblings by uttering some of the most hilariously stupid things he has ever said, capped off when he called the ESPN stat department liars and pledged to (if you're standing, sit down) look it up to check.

 

Out of curiosity, which stat(s) was this in regards to?

 

Jones being 0-54 when in an 0-2 count.

 

I'm assuming Morgan said there was no way Jones was that bad in a 0-2 count?

[Drew Doughty]

I wouldn't trade with Joe Morgan unless he was getting fleeced.

 

:lol: :lol:

[Balsa]

I think it's worth pointing out that Morgan preceded his astonishingly sensical ramblings by uttering some of the most hilariously stupid things he has ever said, capped off when he called the ESPN stat department liars and pledged to (if you're standing, sit down) look it up to check.

That was hilarious. "That can't be true. I'm gonna check that. Those stats are wrong sometimes."

[Drew Doughty]

I think it's worth pointing out that Morgan preceded his astonishingly sensical ramblings by uttering some of the most hilariously stupid things he has ever said, capped off when he called the ESPN stat department liars and pledged to (if you're standing, sit down) look it up to check.

 

Out of curiosity, which stat(s) was this in regards to?

 

Jones being 0-54 when in an 0-2 count.

 

I'm assuming Morgan said there was no way Jones was that bad in a 0-2 count?

 

he said there's no way anyone was that bad in that count.

 

he also said we have too many stats.

 

but i was laughing pretty hard with the "i'll look it up thing." I was picturing him thinking like this:

 

Moran: Alright, time to look up Jacque Jones

Moran: /walks into computer room

Moran: I see you computer

Computer: /sits there...menacingly.

Moran: /goes zoolander on computer, walks into SNB booth, drops computer at feet of Jon Miller and says, "THE STATS ARE IN THERE!"

[Tracer Bullet]

The Cubs need guys with high OBP. They don't need more "power hitters" who can't get on base regularly. Sure, if they could bring in a guy like Dunn, who gets on base at a great clip AND hits for power - fine. But don't go looking for power and say "if we get a couple high OBP guys, that's just icing."

 

The reason the Cubs suck is b/c they don't score runs. They don't score runs b/c they don't get enough guys on base.

 

A lot of those power guys provide good OBP, though. A power guy with a good OBP is better than a non power guy with a good OBP.

 

See bolded part - I didn't say we should try to get good OBP/bad power guys. But if we just get a bunch of "HR hitters" and ignore the fact that they have an OBP of .310, well that's bad. Esp when you consider that this isn't a team full of high OBP guys anway.

[Tracer Bullet]

The Cubs need guys with high OBP. They don't need more "power hitters" who can't get on base regularly. Sure, if they could bring in a guy like Dunn, who gets on base at a great clip AND hits for power - fine. But don't go looking for power and say "if we get a couple high OBP guys, that's just icing."

 

The reason the Cubs suck is b/c they don't score runs. They don't score runs b/c they don't get enough guys on base.

 

Ok, I'll give you a team of 8 Omar Visquel's production of this year (.374 OBP) and I'll take 8 Ryan Howards (.344 OBP). My team will score many more runs then your team will over a season. While my team gets on base at a .3 less clip, it will usually take only 1 or 2 hits to drive runners home, while it takes your hitters normally at least 3 hits in order to get your runners home. Since you have a less than 1 in 2 chance of getting on base with each runner, the most likely result of each inning will be for you to get 1 or 2 hits and no runs. We will be more likely to get 1 hit then 2, but my team will hit many solo home runs and 2 run homers and outscore your team. Now, would I want either of these teams? No-because there should be a balance of high OBP hitters and great power hitters, no matter how you can get them. Mathematically, does slugging matter as much as OBP? Yes-that's why OPS is the true measure of run production, because it combines OBP and slugging equally. If you look at the correlation between runs scored and OBP or slugging, slugging matches up just as well with runs as OBP does. So why is it assumed that OBP is the more important of the two stats, instead of giving each their equal place?

 

Well, I don't agree with your claim that OPS treats OBP and SLG equally b/c they are equal. Neyer has written several times that it's a matter of convenience b/c they are two stats that tell you a great deal about a hitter. He (and others - Tango Tiger maybe? Someone around here) also says that OPS undervalues OBP relative to SLG - OBP is more important. But even setting that aside to examine the rest of your post...

 

I'd like you to look at my first post and tell me where it says I'd rather have 8 Vizquel's rather than 8 Howards. I bolded for you the same section I just bolded for BBB. If we can get a power hitter who gets on base regularly-I'm all for it (I'd take 8 Dunns over 8 Howards, but Howard's .350-ish OBP qualifies as "regular" to me). I never said to go look for the 8 position players with the highest OBP and put them out there. I just said don't say "this guy hits 30 homers a year - sign him up" when that guy also puts up OBP around .310 (Soriano last year - though his OBP has improved greatly this year).

 

Obviously we need power hitters too. But I don't think we need a balance of power and OBP guys. I'd prefer 8 guys with solid to great OBP, 3-4 of which have decent to great power. ARam and Lee both put up great power numbers last year (but also OBP over .350 - well over for Lee). If we had 5-6 other guys with good OBP (say .340 or higher), esp 2 to go at the top of the order w/ real good OBP, and had 1-2 guys with solid SLG (not just HR power) - we'd have a team capable of scoring some runs. If we keep JP for another year, lose Walker and replace him w/ a Neifi-ish .300 OBP, keep Jones and his .320-ish OBP in the heart of the order, and Cedeno never comes around - we'll have 4 pretty bad OBP in our lineup. Not good for scoring runs.

[Lefty]

Remember a few years back when Jim Thome, if I am not mistaken, ASKED Hendry to meet him to talk about the possibilities of him being a Cub? I realize that at the time he was an injury liability, but that is the kind of guy you want on your team.

 

IMO, Hendry has done some great things for the Cubs - but the past offseason was a bust as far as being creative and getting some much needed power. Kudos for getting a good leadoff hitter in Pierre (which so far has been a flop despite his recent production). Kudos for putting a good bullpen out there.

 

Hendry, IMO, should definately do some wheeling and dealing to clean out the big salaries that aren't producing. The coaching staff seems to be a joke, and the minor league system is proving that players are not getting solid fundamental training.

 

Who is to blame?

 

Actually at the time he was not considered an injury liability. But we didn't want to block Choi for $14 million a year. I can't really argue with the logic despite how it worked out. And of course we all love DLee.

[CubColtPacer]

The Cubs need guys with high OBP. They don't need more "power hitters" who can't get on base regularly. Sure, if they could bring in a guy like Dunn, who gets on base at a great clip AND hits for power - fine. But don't go looking for power and say "if we get a couple high OBP guys, that's just icing."

 

The reason the Cubs suck is b/c they don't score runs. They don't score runs b/c they don't get enough guys on base.

 

Ok, I'll give you a team of 8 Omar Visquel's production of this year (.374 OBP) and I'll take 8 Ryan Howards (.344 OBP). My team will score many more runs then your team will over a season. While my team gets on base at a .3 less clip, it will usually take only 1 or 2 hits to drive runners home, while it takes your hitters normally at least 3 hits in order to get your runners home. Since you have a less than 1 in 2 chance of getting on base with each runner, the most likely result of each inning will be for you to get 1 or 2 hits and no runs. We will be more likely to get 1 hit then 2, but my team will hit many solo home runs and 2 run homers and outscore your team. Now, would I want either of these teams? No-because there should be a balance of high OBP hitters and great power hitters, no matter how you can get them. Mathematically, does slugging matter as much as OBP? Yes-that's why OPS is the true measure of run production, because it combines OBP and slugging equally. If you look at the correlation between runs scored and OBP or slugging, slugging matches up just as well with runs as OBP does. So why is it assumed that OBP is the more important of the two stats, instead of giving each their equal place?

 

Well, I don't agree with your claim that OPS treats OBP and SLG equally b/c they are equal. Neyer has written several times that it's a matter of convenience b/c they are two stats that tell you a great deal about a hitter. He (and others - Tango Tiger maybe? Someone around here) also says that OPS undervalues OBP relative to SLG - OBP is more important. But even setting that aside to examine the rest of your post...

 

I'd like you to look at my first post and tell me where it says I'd rather have 8 Vizquel's rather than 8 Howards. I bolded for you the same section I just bolded for BBB. If we can get a power hitter who gets on base regularly-I'm all for it (I'd take 8 Dunns over 8 Howards, but Howard's .350-ish OBP qualifies as "regular" to me). I never said to go look for the 8 position players with the highest OBP and put them out there. I just said don't say "this guy hits 30 homers a year - sign him up" when that guy also puts up OBP around .310 (Soriano last year - though his OBP has improved greatly this year).

 

Obviously we need power hitters too. But I don't think we need a balance of power and OBP guys. I'd prefer 8 guys with solid to great OBP, 3-4 of which have decent to great power. ARam and Lee both put up great power numbers last year (but also OBP over .350 - well over for Lee). If we had 5-6 other guys with good OBP (say .340 or higher), esp 2 to go at the top of the order w/ real good OBP, and had 1-2 guys with solid SLG (not just HR power) - we'd have a team capable of scoring some runs. If we keep JP for another year, lose Walker and replace him w/ a Neifi-ish .300 OBP, keep Jones and his .320-ish OBP in the heart of the order, and Cedeno never comes around - we'll have 4 pretty bad OBP in our lineup. Not good for scoring runs.

 

The reason I said what I did is because of your last statement-the reason that the Cubs don't score runs is because they don't get on base. You gave no other option in that post, and you seemed to only want to get power as an added bonus to an already high OBP guy. Obviously I would love if all 8 hitters had high OBP's and high power numbers. I was just saying in my post that if you had 6 guys who had high OBPs and low power numbers-if you had to choose between another player with a relatively high OBP with bad power, or a player with great power and a relatively bad OBP, I would take the player with a relatively bad OBP and great power. A team is not likely to get all their players who are above average in both categories. Now, as far as improving this team, we need both right now. We need to sign 1 or 2 starters who have high OBPs to get on, and we need 1 more big power hitter in the middle of the lineup as well. If he has decent OBP, that's a big bonus, but we need that power along with the 1 to 2 OBP first players.

[Tracer Bullet]

Now, as far as improving this team, we need both right now. We need to sign 1 or 2 starters who have high OBPs to get on, and we need 1 more big power hitter in the middle of the lineup as well. If he has decent OBP, that's a big bonus, but we need that power along with the 1 to 2 OBP first players.

 

I flat disagree with this. We need guys with good OBP. We have Lee, Ramirez - who have a lot of power. For the foreseeable future, we have guys like JJ and Barrett, who can contribute 20-25 HR, and 15-20 HR respectively. Add that to the 30-40 HRs a healthy Lee & ARam will have - and we have good power in the middle. Could we use another power guy? Sure, who couldn't use more power. But, what we need is OBP and lots of it. We don't need a 25 HR guy who gets on base at a .310 clip.

 

Now, as others have said elsewhere, Hendry has no idea of the importance of OBP. As between a toolsy guy w/ no OBP and no power and a toolsy guy with no OBP and a high SLG, I'll take the latter. Thus, I hope we get a guy like Soriano, b/c Hendry just doesn't think a guy like Dunn is that valuable.

[cubfan1955]

I think it's worth pointing out that Morgan preceded his astonishingly sensical ramblings by uttering some of the most hilariously stupid things he has ever said, capped off when he called the ESPN stat department liars and pledged to (if you're standing, sit down) look it up to check.

That was hilarious. "That can't be true. I'm gonna check that. Those stats are wrong sometimes."

And Morgan was right as Jones is 1-24 with an 0-2 count and 1-55 after an 0-2 count.

[CubColtPacer]

Now, as far as improving this team, we need both right now. We need to sign 1 or 2 starters who have high OBPs to get on, and we need 1 more big power hitter in the middle of the lineup as well. If he has decent OBP, that's a big bonus, but we need that power along with the 1 to 2 OBP first players.

 

I flat disagree with this. We need guys with good OBP. We have Lee, Ramirez - who have a lot of power. For the foreseeable future, we have guys like JJ and Barrett, who can contribute 20-25 HR, and 15-20 HR respectively. Add that to the 30-40 HRs a healthy Lee & ARam will have - and we have good power in the middle. Could we use another power guy? Sure, who couldn't use more power. But, what we need is OBP and lots of it. We don't need a 25 HR guy who gets on base at a .310 clip.

 

Now, as others have said elsewhere, Hendry has no idea of the importance of OBP. As between a toolsy guy w/ no OBP and no power and a toolsy guy with no OBP and a high SLG, I'll take the latter. Thus, I hope we get a guy like Soriano, b/c Hendry just doesn't think a guy like Dunn is that valuable.

 

True. I think with those 4, we have what we need for power, but not by all that much. If we trade any of them, we would be in trouble again in that department. Our power problems were really accentuated when Lee went down. If all 4 of them stay then, I would agree that the first priority is guys with high OBP for the starting positions. Maybe some more power on the bench that could start if one of power guys go down? That might do it-at the beginning of the year though, we had 4 slap hitters on the bench, and so when Lee went down there was simply not enough power in the lineup.

[Banedon]

Now, as far as improving this team, we need both right now. We need to sign 1 or 2 starters who have high OBPs to get on, and we need 1 more big power hitter in the middle of the lineup as well. If he has decent OBP, that's a big bonus, but we need that power along with the 1 to 2 OBP first players.

 

I flat disagree with this. We need guys with good OBP. We have Lee, Ramirez - who have a lot of power. For the foreseeable future, we have guys like JJ and Barrett, who can contribute 20-25 HR, and 15-20 HR respectively. Add that to the 30-40 HRs a healthy Lee & ARam will have - and we have good power in the middle. Could we use another power guy? Sure, who couldn't use more power. But, what we need is OBP and lots of it. We don't need a 25 HR guy who gets on base at a .310 clip.

 

Now, as others have said elsewhere, Hendry has no idea of the importance of OBP. As between a toolsy guy w/ no OBP and no power and a toolsy guy with no OBP and a high SLG, I'll take the latter. Thus, I hope we get a guy like Soriano, b/c Hendry just doesn't think a guy like Dunn is that valuable.

 

True. I think with those 4, we have what we need for power, but not by all that much. If we trade any of them, we would be in trouble again in that department. Our power problems were really accentuated when Lee went down. If all 4 of them stay then, I would agree that the first priority is guys with high OBP for the starting positions. Maybe some more power on the bench that could start if one of power guys go down? That might do it-at the beginning of the year though, we had 4 slap hitters on the bench, and so when Lee went down there was simply not enough power in the lineup.

 

You know what...I'd be happy with either of the ideas you guys have, because frankly it would show a commitment to a type of baseball that the Cubs have not been willing to commit to in the past. I'm just not all that picky at this point...just show me a willingness to move in the right direction.

[Kingmanarama]

Ok, I'll give you a team of 8 Omar Visquel's production of this year (.374 OBP) and I'll take 8 Ryan Howards (.344 OBP). My team will score many more runs then your team will over a season.

 

Small point: you're taking a player who is not among the league leaders in OBP (Vizquel) and comparing him to a player who is second in the NL in home runs and fourth in SLG (Howard).

 

How would your eight Ryan Howards do against eight Nick Johnsons? (Or eight Scott Hattebergs, or Freddy Sanchezes, or Brad Hawpes. Man, baseball will be cool when it's played by clones. Less cool when the Cubs spend $80 million on eight Phil Nevins, though).

 

Howard's RC/27 is 7.22. Sanchez, who has 25 fewer home runs, is at 7.58.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Ok, I'll give you a team of 8 Omar Visquel's production of this year (.374 OBP) and I'll take 8 Ryan Howards (.344 OBP). My team will score many more runs then your team will over a season.

 

Small point: you're taking a player who is not among the league leaders in OBP (Vizquel) and comparing him to a player who is second in the NL in home runs and fourth in SLG (Howard).

 

How would your eight Ryan Howards do against eight Nick Johnsons? (Or eight Scott Hattebergs, or Freddy Sanchezes, or Brad Hawpes. Man, baseball will be cool when it's played by clones. Less cool when the Cubs spend $80 million on eight Phil Nevins, though).

 

Howard's RC/27 is 7.22. Sanchez, who has 25 fewer home runs, is at 7.58.

 

Shouldn't it be Freddy Sanchi?