Predictions?

[Banedon]

So the 3-4 year plan . Your okay with. 3 to 4 years just to be competitive and maybe sniff 0.500 in those year. Again good plan.

 

You know what...I don't think it would take 3-4 years if it was done correctly, but if the Cubs meander around just barely hanging on this year, I think then your "barely sniff .500" thought may be the case.

 

You and I both want the same things. It's just that I don't think current management can bring that, and you do apparently.

[abuck1220]

So the 3-4 year plan . Your okay with. 3 to 4 years just to be competitive and maybe sniff 0.500 in those year. Again good plan.

 

 

you seem to be ok w/ trying to be competitive and maybe sniff .500 because that's exactly what they've done the past three years.

[USSoccer]

just because you predict something doesn't mean you want it to happen.

 

or maybe you don't realize that a prediction on an internet message board will have no bearing on how a team plays.

 

Maybe you don't realize that a prediction on an internet message board will have no bearing on how a team will react when lossing 100 games either. I prefer winning to retooling and cutting and slashing the current team. I guess other don't.

 

I think we'd all prefer winning, which is why finishing at .500 isn't going to cut it. Not only is that, by definition, NOT winning, but it's ensuring that the current regime of excused mediocrity will be back, which in turn will lead to more not winning.

 

I get the feeling you were not saying this in 2003 or 2004. Both winning seasons.

 

You mean in 2003, when they had a totally healthy pitching staff, a much weaker division, and still only won by 1 game? Or in 2004 when an absolutely loaded team couldn't win 90 games and imploded thanks to mismanagement by the coaching staff? Or in 2005 when after a winter of doing nothing but demolishing Sosa's trade value a badly constructed team finished below .500 despite having one of the best 3-4 hitting tandems in the game?

 

Over the last 3.5 seasons the current GM and coaching staff had 3 of the best pitchers in baseball, a rising star 3B, a breakout 1B, enough minor league talent to swing deals for impact players, and the best offensive C in the NL at one point or another and they have 1 playoff appearance and 0 90 win seasons to show for it. They are clearly not capable of putting together a successful team, or properly managing and coaching a team.

 

Trotting out 2003 and 2004 just serves to highlight that this regime has done less with more than any group in the history of the Chicago Cubs. A rally in the 2nd half that gets them to the .500 mark doesn't get them any closer to winning a championship. All it does is serve to restore Baker's reputation, and ensures that the lack of progress made in 3.5 years will continue.

[fromthestretch]

I respectively disagree with you on the prediction thread, you and a lot of others. I would like to see good baseball in the second half by the Cubs. Not bad baseball.

 

Do you really not understand the difference between predicting what will happen and hoping for a certain outcome? Those a two very different things. I've only seen one person in this entire thread actually say he'd like to see the Cubs lose 100 games so they'll feel the embarrassment. Everyone else is just making predictions.

 

If you'd actually listen, you'll probably find that most people here want the Cubs to win. There aren't many people on this board that watch this team and follow them religiously, hoping they'll lose. Most people would love to see the Cubs play good baseball in the second half. And most of those same people want Baker gone. The problem is that a strong second half could very well lead to a contract extension for Baker, who really hasn't done a good job with this team. Chances are, if they continue to lose, Baker won't be back next season. If they continue to lose, they'll probably trade players who have no future with this team, and hopefully acquire some key players who can help turn things around for the long-term.

 

Rebuilding can take a few years, but a team with a payroll of nearly $100 million can rebuild much faster than a team with a $35 million payroll. The Cubs can use some young players (ones they have now or ones they may acquire via trade) to trade for a big bat or maybe a good starting pitcher. If good players are available via free agency, they can use the money they saved by trading high-priced, mediocre vets to sign a few good players.

 

You really have to figure out what's most important for you. Do you want the Cubs to have a great second half, which will likely not be enough to put them in the playoffs and could lead to fewer changes on what is not a strong team? OR would you rather they make significant changes that could lead to sustained success? I think we'd all rather have an extended period of winning over trying to salvage what is already a lost season. Does continued losing this season guarantee that the Cubs will make serious changes? Of course not, but it certainly increases the chances of it happening. Does a .500 record at the end of the season guarantee Baker will be back in 2007? No, but I predict that if the Cubs finish at or above .500 this season, which they won't (that's another prediction), Baker will be given the opportunity to return next year.

[fromthestretch]

[if they clean house and fire everyone and trade evryone that doesn't have a .400 OBP the only thing that'll be long term would be the Cubs World Series drought.

 

Yes, because they're so close to winning it all with this current roster.

 

The Cubs drought is already long-term. Time to try something new.

[Banedon]

Then I guess your prediction of 100 losses is an indication you want them to win some how? How obvious I must have missed that.

 

What I want to happen: New Cubs management and team-building philosophy. .

 

What makes you think this will happen long term? So we have to sit through 3 or 4 years of a youth movement to put team-philosophy in place. Great plan.

 

What will happen if the Cubs go better than .500 the rest of the way: Management decides that things are going in the right direction, and don't make the necessary changes.

 

What necessary changes are that? Like I posted before if the Cubs get to the 0.500 mark that would mean the rookies, Murton, Cedano, Marshall, Marmol all did great job, along with Ar Ram coming out of his funk. The Hendry has a good start on what needs need to be filled. Right now there are to many needs to be filled because not one player is doing really great, Jones, Barrett maybe.

 

What (I hope) will happen if the Cubs tank: Management will look for a new direction, as the current one is currently not working. They will get a manager that can help young talent grow into their potential..

 

So the 3-4 year plan . Your okay with. 3 to 4 years just to be competitive and maybe sniff 0.500 in those year. Again good plan.

 

Granted, the last paragraph is wishful thinking, but it's the best "future" scenario that I can come up with, and because I want the Cubs to win long term, it's what I'm hoping for.

 

If they clean house and fire everyone and trade evryone that doesn't have a .400 OBP the only thing that'll be long term would be the Cubs World Series drought.

 

I respectively disagree with you on the prediction thread, you and a lot of others. I would like to see good baseball in the second half by the Cubs. Not bad baseball.

 

So, change won't help, but staying pat will?

[FergieJ31]

This team will come close to 100 losses. If anyone else gets hurt and/or if Prior is sidelined for an extended period they will lose over a hundred. If Walker gets traded and they replace him with Neifi at 2nd and batting 2nd they will lose over a hundred games. If JJ cools off at all they will lose 100 games (he is on pace for his best season in a long time).

 

I agree with CubinNY. My forecast? High 90's. Just like the Cubs 2002 slogan.

[Outshined_One]

I'm going to predict 95 losses with Dusty getting fired in August after guys like Pierre and Maddux are traded off.

 

If this team is gutted at the deadline, the front office is finally admitting defeat. There'd be no reason to keep Baker and company around at that point.

[Caryatid]

This from the Neyer chat today. I think it applies pretty well to this conversation:

 

 

Matt (Los Angeles): Should the Orioles trade Miguel Tejada?

 

SportsNation Rob Neyer: Sure. This team has been doing it wrrong for nearly a decade. If they can't match the $$$ of the Red Sox, they should tear down and start over, like the Indians and Marlins have. Playing this sort of "middle game" year after year just doesn't work.

[Blueheart05]

I'm going to predict 95 losses with Dusty getting fired in August after guys like Pierre and Maddux are traded off.

 

If this team is gutted at the deadline, the front office is finally admitting defeat. There'd be no reason to keep Baker and company around at that point.

 

According to Cubs.com there will be no gutting of this team by the deadline:

 

CHICAGO -- There will be no fire sale at Wrigley Field. No white-flag deal.

 

The Chicago Cubs may be double-digits under .500, but general manager Jim Hendry said he won't be dumping players at the trading deadline on July 31, even if he is looking ahead to 2007

 

"I don't have a definitive way of how things will go," Hendry said. "Whenever you have problems, people assume you're going to have this fire-sale approach. What's lost in that is even if you aren't in the race at the end of July, you have to do most of your preparation for seeing what you might have and who you want to keep for next year."

[thedaymen]

As has been said before, it would be bad policy to say "ok! We're going to trade everyone!" it automatically lowers everyone's trade value.

[Captain Barnicle]

Scott,

 

Your posts fill me with more internet-rage than I have felt in many moons. It started off with the brash preditions of a turn-around earlier in this year (which never came true) and putting up false crazy-sauce hope after false wacky-juice hope. Now, you are again throwing out tired optimism and dismissal of the obvious. Please stop before my head explodes! I beg of you! My insurance isn't that great and I don't want my wife to have to bear the financial burden that a new head would cost. She can't handle the hospital bills. She has a cat to take care of!

 

It isn't WRONG for people to disagree with your looney-tunes assesment of this team. Plus, I will even say that it isn't WRONG for people to even want the Cubs to loose 100 games! I am a true Cubs fan, and I can see what they are getting at.

 

Only when we hit the rock bottom can we come up again. Water treading will only continue to produce more medeocrity that we have become all-too-accustomed too.

 

Please Scott, I love you with the burning passion of a thousand suns, and I want to see you happy and old in a retirement home in FL, surrounded by your many wives and grandchildren, sipping on a tall Pina Collada. But for my sakes, PLEASE stop with the blind optimism!

[goonys evil twin]

As has been said before, it would be bad policy to say "ok! We're going to trade everyone!" it automatically lowers everyone's trade value.

 

But with Hendry and his announce to the world my intentions so as to not risk offending anybody by fooling them I'm not so sure he's just playing coy.

[soccer10k]

1. Higher draft pick

 

Because the draft in baseball means so much of course.

 

Ask the A's how much the draft means.

 

Your position in the draft doesn't really matter. The actual draft does.

[Soul]

I'm convinced Hendry is doing nothing.

 

Maybe a tweak here & there. Nothing major at all.

 

He's happy with this team. This is the team he built, and he thinks it's a winner. He doesn't care what the record is.

[biittner77]

I'm going to predict 95 losses with Dusty getting fired in August after guys like Pierre and Maddux are traded off.

 

If this team is gutted at the deadline, the front office is finally admitting defeat. There'd be no reason to keep Baker and company around at that point.

 

According to Cubs.com there will be no gutting of this team by the deadline:

 

CHICAGO -- There will be no fire sale at Wrigley Field. No white-flag deal.

 

The Chicago Cubs may be double-digits under .500, but general manager Jim Hendry said he won't be dumping players at the trading deadline on July 31, even if he is looking ahead to 2007

 

"I don't have a definitive way of how things will go," Hendry said. "Whenever you have problems, people assume you're going to have this fire-sale approach. What's lost in that is even if you aren't in the race at the end of July, you have to do most of your preparation for seeing what you might have and who you want to keep for next year."

 

 

This quote can be interpreted many ways. What is a firesale? TO Hendry that might mean trading players like Lee and Ramirez. Is it really a fire sale if Perez, Rusch and Nevin are shipped out?

 

As for the "seeing what you might have part", that suggests lots of Playing time for guys like Murton, Pagan and anyone that might be a sept. callup. UNless of course they don't already know what they have in vets like Perez, Mabry etc.

[biittner77]

As for my prediction: The Cubs have a better 2nd half and go 73-89.

[Brian]

trading Pierre and Maddux isn't a fire sale. Trading guys with big contracts (money and years) is a fire sale

[d_money]

In general - we all agree they suck.

 

My prediction for the radio show tonight is that WGN will allow pre-screened softball questions for Hendry.

 

End result: we find out what we already know - despite how bad they suck, NOTHING will happen.

[Outshined_One]

Your position in the draft doesn't really matter. The actual draft does.

 

It matters in the first two rounds, which is where all of the best talent is always concentrated. You still have to scout guys, but the odds of finding a future All Star are the greatest in those two rounds. The higher you are, the larger the pool you have to pick from.

 

After that, matters become much more reliant on the scouting department.

[Captain Barnicle]

I too, think that the Cubs will do better in the second half...perhaps play just below 500 ball from now on if they are lucky. More likely they will play themselves another 10 games or so under 500.

 

I honestly can't see how we are loosing outside of our boneheadedness and lack of picthing. We SHOULD be better on paper. If our rookies can develop a little more in the pitching department things will hopefully stabalize.

 

I hope that better ball doesn't mean a patched up team next year. We've got to get cheaper and get rid of vets so we can change the makeup next year.

[soccer10k]

Your position in the draft doesn't really matter. The actual draft does.

 

It matters in the first two rounds, which is where all of the best talent is always concentrated. You still have to scout guys, but the odds of finding a future All Star are the greatest in those two rounds. The higher you are, the larger the pool you have to pick from.

 

After that, matters become much more reliant on the scouting department.

 

Obviously having a top pick will help you a bit, but a top 5 pick in baseball doesn't mean anywhere near as much as having a top 5 pick in basketball or football.

[Scott G. F.]

Scott,

 

Your posts fill me with more internet-rage than I have felt in many moons. It started off with the brash preditions of a turn-around earlier in this year (which never came true) and putting up false crazy-sauce hope after false wacky-juice hope. Now, you are again throwing out tired optimism and dismissal of the obvious. Please stop before my head explodes! I beg of you! My insurance isn't that great and I don't want my wife to have to bear the financial burden that a new head would cost. She can't handle the hospital bills. She has a cat to take care of!

 

It isn't WRONG for people to disagree with your looney-tunes assesment of this team. Plus, I will even say that it isn't WRONG for people to even want the Cubs to loose 100 games! I am a true Cubs fan, and I can see what they are getting at.

 

Only when we hit the rock bottom can we come up again. Water treading will only continue to produce more medeocrity that we have become all-too-accustomed too.

 

Please Scott, I love you with the burning passion of a thousand suns, and I want to see you happy and old in a retirement home in FL, surrounded by your many wives and grandchildren, sipping on a tall Pina Collada. But for my sakes, PLEASE stop with the blind optimism!

 

Captin B.

I have read your post and am sorry your head is that close to exsploding. I believe the Cubs will have a tremendous second half and I predicted what I predicted. Viewing the thread, my prediction was the only one attacked with hate and knashing of teeth. Why is it so difficult to understand predicting the Cubs rookies and "star players" to play much better baseball? Wouldn't that fact help in building for 2007? If Cedano comes out of his slump, which he will, and Murton starts showing some power then Hendry can look in other areas of filling hole for the Cubs. Marshall, Marmol and Hill will be 3 starting young pitchers that will be evaluated in the second half. I see them doing very well. D Lee will be better coming off the All Star Break along with Am Ram. I like what J. Jones has done, he got off to a bad start but his play has proven Hendry right with respect that Jones would play better as Wrigley. JP is playing better too.

 

Steve Stone made a comment during a broadcast that still resonates with me even today. He was tring to explain a free agents slower start (I cannot remember whom). He explained that it takes about a half a season to get used to Wrigley Field and to play the game at the level you're use to playing.

 

Lets see:

The entire outfiled was new this year and all three should get better.

Cedano was new

Marshall New

Marmol New

Am Ram Slow Start but heating up

D Lee injured but getting back to form

Todd Walker and Barrett have been very good Offensivly this year

 

So that is why I say what I say about the second half of the year being so much better then the first half. It's not based on the fact that I'm blindly wishing the Cubs are going to do better because I like the color blue. I find that rather insulting.

 

So many people are watching what Dusty is doing or not doing that their missing what's happening on the field and putting it in the proper perspective.

[Banedon]

I'm done with this thread.

[Captain Barnicle]

I'm done with this thread.

 

Amen. My head has officially blown up.