Sign Zito

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Allow me to put it out there that I don't want the Cubs to sign either Zito or Schmidt in the offseason. We have 8 pitchers for sure that could contend for starting spots this year.

 

Z

Marshall

Marmol

Guzman

Hill

Prior

Miller

Ryu

 

I know that some of them haven't performed that well this year but Mike Maroth lost 21 games in 2002 and posted a 5.73 ERA then dropped that ERA to 4.31 in 2003 so a turnaround isn't out of the question. I think we can find a solid rotation out of those 8 players.

 

I concur. I wouldn't mind some spending on a FA pitcher if the plan is to trade surplus arms for the bat this team lacks. But if we're not trading for that bat, I too would prefer to try to find a rotation out of what we already have.

 

On the other hand, assume we sign Schmidt or Zito, we could then package Prior (if he proves healthy...or maybe Marshall or Marmol) to the Phillies for Abreu or the Orioles for Tejada or some other possibly trade for a bat.

 

I wouldn't include Miller on that list. He'll be a FA and unless he shows something the second half, there's no way we should be bidding to bring him back.

[soccer10k]

Furthemore, while run of the mill power pitchers may flame out soon, elite ones seem to hold out a bit longer...ex: Clemens, Ryan, Schilling, Johnson...

 

How can you compare Schmidt to Clemens, Schilling and Johnson. Nolan Ryan I will give you but not the other three.

 

Career ERA+

Clemens 143

Johnson 142

Schilling 128

Ryan 112

Schmidt 108

 

Furthermore, years of ERA+ over 130 out of total season played (min 25 starts):

Schmidt 2/8

Clemens 13/18

Johnson 9/14

Schilling 7/9

Ryan 3/21

 

Clemens and Johnson are clearly above the rest in terms of that. Ryan had the longevity was wasn't the best of pitchers. A star, yes, but Clemens and Johnson are two of the greatest of all time.

[soccer10k]

Allow me to put it out there that I don't want the Cubs to sign either Zito or Schmidt in the offseason. We have 8 pitchers for sure that could contend for starting spots this year.

 

Z

Marshall

Marmol

Guzman

Hill

Prior

Miller

Ryu

 

I know that some of them haven't performed that well this year but Mike Maroth lost 21 games in 2002 and posted a 5.73 ERA then dropped that ERA to 4.31 in 2003 so a turnaround isn't out of the question. I think we can find a solid rotation out of those 8 players.

 

I concur. I wouldn't mind some spending on a FA pitcher if the plan is to trade surplus arms for the bat this team lacks. But if we're not trading for that bat, I too would prefer to try to find a rotation out of what we already have.

 

On the other hand, assume we sign Schmidt or Zito, we could then package Prior (if he proves healthy...or maybe Marshall or Marmol) to the Phillies for Abreu or the Orioles for Tejada or some other possibly trade for a bat.

 

I wouldn't include Miller on that list. He'll be a FA and unless he shows something the second half, there's no way we should be bidding to bring him back.

 

Even if we do trade Prior, I don't know if Zito or Schmidt is the answer. After looking at the minor league stats, Les Walrond and Ryan O'Malley could also be factored there. I would much rather spend the money on a FA hitter or two or trade some prospects for one.

[soccer10k]

Anyway, excellent debate Vance, but I must go to bed. Have to get up early to watch the USA-Ghana in the morning.

 

EDIT: Have a great night, er, morning.

[Brian]

hasn't Schmidt been losing velocity?, or am I just thinking back to atime when he was having struggles but it's normal now?

 

Nothing in recent histoyr makes me believe that Hendry is capable of signing either pitcher though.

[CuseCubFan69]

Allow me to put it out there that I don't want the Cubs to sign either Zito or Schmidt in the offseason. We have 8 pitchers for sure that could contend for starting spots this year.

 

Z

Marshall

Marmol

Guzman

Hill

Prior

Miller

Ryu

 

I know that some of them haven't performed that well this year but Mike Maroth lost 21 games in 2002 and posted a 5.73 ERA then dropped that ERA to 4.31 in 2003 so a turnaround isn't out of the question. I think we can find a solid rotation out of those 8 players.

 

I concur. I wouldn't mind some spending on a FA pitcher if the plan is to trade surplus arms for the bat this team lacks. But if we're not trading for that bat, I too would prefer to try to find a rotation out of what we already have.

 

On the other hand, assume we sign Schmidt or Zito, we could then package Prior (if he proves healthy...or maybe Marshall or Marmol) to the Phillies for Abreu or the Orioles for Tejada or some other possibly trade for a bat.

 

I wouldn't include Miller on that list. He'll be a FA and unless he shows something the second half, there's no way we should be bidding to bring him back.

 

Why not just call up Nolasco and Pinto next year instead? Oh yeah...carry on.

 

These are just my feelings but I'm waiting for Zito to crash and burn in the next couple of years. After all the innings he's pitched I would be very surprised if he would be able to skate through the next 2 or 3 years injury free.

 

I just don't see the Cubs as being a good starter away from winning. This 8 man starting team just has way too many holes and I do believe that the Cubs have a chance to move some people and start building this thing the right way. I'm sick of these bandaid fixes for an injury that takes a surgery to fix.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Its harder to find a Ace lefty than it is a Ace righty. If you have a chance to sign Zito you do it.

 

It's also harder to find pitchers who are as good as Schmidt. He's better than Zito. Zito makes a bunch of starts, that's great. It still doesn't mean that he's immune to injury. Schmidt has had very little in the way of injury problems. Yes, he's been ridden hard, but considering how long he's been worked in this fashion, it's not illogical to think he can handle it. Schmidt will likely have less of a market than Zito, is a better pitcher, and isn't a significant injury risk. Zito is a big name pitcher based on what he did before the Cubs even hired Baker. He's been good but not great since, and he won't be worth the contract he signs.

 

As I asked before, how is Schmidt a better pitcher? You have stated this a couple times and haven't backed it up yet.

 

Schmidt gives up fewer baserunners, strikes out more people, walks fewer people(which means K/BB is better also), gives up fewer home runs, gives up fewer hits, and gives up fewer extra base hits(which means OPS against is better also). I didn't think it needed elaboration.

[srbin84]

Its harder to find a Ace lefty than it is a Ace righty. If you have a chance to sign Zito you do it.

 

It's also harder to find pitchers who are as good as Schmidt. He's better than Zito. Zito makes a bunch of starts, that's great. It still doesn't mean that he's immune to injury. Schmidt has had very little in the way of injury problems. Yes, he's been ridden hard, but considering how long he's been worked in this fashion, it's not illogical to think he can handle it. Schmidt will likely have less of a market than Zito, is a better pitcher, and isn't a significant injury risk. Zito is a big name pitcher based on what he did before the Cubs even hired Baker. He's been good but not great since, and he won't be worth the contract he signs.

 

As I asked before, how is Schmidt a better pitcher? You have stated this a couple times and haven't backed it up yet.

 

Schmidt gives up fewer baserunners, strikes out more people, walks fewer people(which means K/BB is better also), gives up fewer home runs, gives up fewer hits, and gives up fewer extra base hits(which means OPS against is better also). I didn't think it needed elaboration.

 

Why has his ERA been increasing by the point each year then?

[Banedon]

Why has his ERA been increasing by the point each year then?

 

Whoa whoa whoa...it's only happened over the last three years, and you have previously told me that three years isn't enough to trend.... :D

[HoopsCubs]

Both New York teams will get into a bidding war over him and it'll get ugly.

 

The Yankees hold club options on Mike Mussina and Gary Sheffield in 2007. If they choose not to exercise either player it would free up $28.5M. Even if they choose to keep one, it still gives them $13-15M to instantly spend. If Zito decides to stay in the AL, I think it's high probability that the Yankees get him. Although, if Zito has a preference for California, the Angels have the offseason money ($20M free with Erstad, Weaver and Kennedy off the books) to get it done too, if they prioritize pitching. My thinking still is that the Angels will use the money to go after Soriano.

 

And while the Mets could get into the bidding for Zito, my dark horse pick in the NL is the Giants. The Giants potentially have their 5 top salaried players all coming off the books (Bonds, Schmidt, Durham, Finley, Alou) for a potential of $50M available to spend. Plus, Zito has said many times that he loves the Bay Area.

[Brian]

Giants don't have a spot for such a young whipper-snapper as Zito.

[srbin84]

Why has his ERA been increasing by the point each year then?

 

Whoa whoa whoa...it's only happened over the last three years, and you have previously told me that three years isn't enough to trend.... :D

 

At like .4, not 1!

[soccer10k]

Both New York teams will get into a bidding war over him and it'll get ugly.

 

The Yankees hold club options on Mike Mussina and Gary Sheffield in 2007. If they choose not to exercise either player it would free up $28.5M. Even if they choose to keep one, it still gives them $13-15M to instantly spend. If Zito decides to stay in the AL, I think it's high probability that the Yankees get him. Although, if Zito has a preference for California, the Angels have the offseason money ($20M free with Erstad, Weaver and Kennedy off the books) to get it done too, if they prioritize pitching. My thinking still is that the Angels will use the money to go after Soriano.

 

And while the Mets could get into the bidding for Zito, my dark horse pick in the NL is the Giants. The Giants potentially have their 5 top salaried players all coming off the books (Bonds, Schmidt, Durham, Finley, Alou) for a potential of $50M available to spend. Plus, Zito has said many times that he loves the Bay Area.

 

I'm going to guess that the teams with the best chance to land Zito are the Yankees, Red Sox and Angles with a darkhorse being the Dodgers.

[baseball7897]

Kaplan numerous times on WGN radio stated "Zito is one guy Jim really likes" Just from that quote I beleive Jim would probably be in the bidding war for Zito. That being said its going to be up to Zito where he wants to go.

[Banedon]

Why has his ERA been increasing by the point each year then?

 

Whoa whoa whoa...it's only happened over the last three years, and you have previously told me that three years isn't enough to trend.... :D

 

At like .4, not 1!

 

Either it's enough to trend, or it's not. You can't say that the significance of the trend is only based on the results.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Both New York teams will get into a bidding war over him and it'll get ugly.

 

The Yankees hold club options on Mike Mussina and Gary Sheffield in 2007. If they choose not to exercise either player it would free up $28.5M. Even if they choose to keep one, it still gives them $13-15M to instantly spend. If Zito decides to stay in the AL, I think it's high probability that the Yankees get him. Although, if Zito has a preference for California, the Angels have the offseason money ($20M free with Erstad, Weaver and Kennedy off the books) to get it done too, if they prioritize pitching. My thinking still is that the Angels will use the money to go after Soriano.

 

And while the Mets could get into the bidding for Zito, my dark horse pick in the NL is the Giants. The Giants potentially have their 5 top salaried players all coming off the books (Bonds, Schmidt, Durham, Finley, Alou) for a potential of $50M available to spend. Plus, Zito has said many times that he loves the Bay Area.

 

Zito has shown a desire to stay on the West Coast a few times.

[Caryatid]

Interjecting once again-

 

With the money saved on Wood and Maddux next year, you could sign both Schmidt and Zito to 12 million per year deals.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Interjecting once again-

 

With the money saved on Wood and Maddux next year, you could sign both Schmidt and Zito to 12 million per year deals.

 

But what would be left to upgrade the offense. We need offense upgrades more than anything. I'd like to use half that money on pitching, half on the offense.

[Backtobanks]

I'm hoping Hendry has looked at the results of free agency (both his and others) and realizes that most free agents don't produce anywhere near the level people expect of them for the money. I think Hendry's strength has been in the trade market rather than free agency. Pitchers like Zito, Mulder, and Schmidt are great but not if you have to get in a bidding war over them and end up giving them $50-60 million.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

What I don't see is how Zito fits the Cubs.

 

He's an extreme flyball pitcher who has lost velocity on his fastball and who's control has gone down the sh*tter.

 

He's a good innings eater, but he'd probably do better in a pitchers park like Shea than in a park like Wrigley.

 

And he'd be expensive as hell. Just because he's Barry Zito. We can spend better.

[CuseCubFan69]

Kaplan numerous times on WGN radio stated "Zito is one guy Jim really likes" Just from that quote I beleive Jim would probably be in the bidding war for Zito. That being said its going to be up to Zito where he wants to go.

 

Yikes....this will be the time Hendry does a Texas/ARod bid for Zito. Then we'll have more Perez/Rusch signings after that because he'll be over the budget but thrilled with himself that he signed a big time free agent.

[ConstableRabbit]

Why don't we just settle this by signing both? :lol: :shock:

[goonys evil twin]

Schmidt scares me. He stunk last year. He's had serious injury issues in the past and he'll turn 34 before suiting up for his next contract. I smell Mussina here after he signs his next deal.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Its harder to find a Ace lefty than it is a Ace righty. If you have a chance to sign Zito you do it.

 

It's also harder to find pitchers who are as good as Schmidt. He's better than Zito. Zito makes a bunch of starts, that's great. It still doesn't mean that he's immune to injury. Schmidt has had very little in the way of injury problems. Yes, he's been ridden hard, but considering how long he's been worked in this fashion, it's not illogical to think he can handle it. Schmidt will likely have less of a market than Zito, is a better pitcher, and isn't a significant injury risk. Zito is a big name pitcher based on what he did before the Cubs even hired Baker. He's been good but not great since, and he won't be worth the contract he signs.

 

As I asked before, how is Schmidt a better pitcher? You have stated this a couple times and haven't backed it up yet.

 

Schmidt gives up fewer baserunners, strikes out more people, walks fewer people(which means K/BB is better also), gives up fewer home runs, gives up fewer hits, and gives up fewer extra base hits(which means OPS against is better also). I didn't think it needed elaboration.

 

Why has his ERA been increasing by the point each year then?

 

Because his poor 2005 happened to be a bookend of his amazing 2003, with a typical year in between. Considering he basically had to go up in '04, and this year he's back to those levels of performance he had before his poor '05, I'm not overly worried about it.

[srbin84]

On paper, I don't mind a rotation of Z, Schmidt, Prior, Marshall, Wood??? I'm just worried we end up right where we are now again before the allstar break, maybe even as soon as April 1. We need to bring in at least one guy who is as close to a lock for 34 or more starts as their is before we do anything else with the rotation. I don't have a problem with getting Zito and Schmidt, but if it's just one, I want Zito. At least you'll be able to pencil in two full quality seasons from the two Z's. It would make things a lot easier.