Trading Deadline Strategy

[Roast]

Well, Vance said it in his analysis of baseball; we're sellers. Barring us continuing this cool little winning streak we're on for, say, 10 more games. Anyways, assuming we are sellers, who goes and more importantly, who for?

 

First of all here is my take on our current team, since i'm bored i'll color code it:

Trade to whoever will take them

Trade

Not "untouchable", but no rush to trade

Keep

 

Pierre CF

Walker 2B

Lee 1B

Aram 3B

Jones RF

Murton LF

Barrett C

Cedeno SS

 

Neifi

Bynum

Blanco

Mabry

Nevin

 

Wood

Prior

Z

Marshall

Maddux

Rusch

Marmol

The Bullpen

 

Allrighty, that was fun. Let me just say that the "keep" players are obviously not "untouchable", but there is no need to trade them in my eyes. Anyways, the question now becomes who do we trade for?

 

Somone posted earlier that Dunn may be available at the break, if so, go for it. But I find it hard to believe that considering Cincy's actually hanging around in the race.

 

Mench? Someone just posted that he may be losing his starting job. But, if we are selling, I think we need to go for someone who will be "the answer" at their given position. Mench isnt on my list.

 

Dontrelle Willis? Its been rumored that he or Cabrera will have to go at the trading deadline because of money constraints. I would assume if florida chose between the two, willis would be the one to go. If he is available, I would make a strong push for him.

 

Miguel Cabrera? ^^^. If he is indeed available i believe THIS is the guy we need to go after. Hard. If all things were perfect and I ruled the world hendry would stat selling off those i listed above as "trade to whoever will take them" now for talented youth, and then turn around and send a huge package to the fish for Cabrera. Chances are though, one of two things will happen. Cabrera will stay or he'll go somewhere with a bigger minor league system for the marlins to rape.

 

Also, I would like to add that now is probably the perfect time to trade Jones; I doubt his value will ever be higher.

 

So now its up to you guys, who do you all think we should go after? Who should we trade for who? I'm bored, lets talk about who goes where for what.

[rawaction]

Cubs don't have to be like other sellers. They don't have to trade off a bunch of high-priced players and regroup. They still have a solid nucleus (Lee, Ramirez, Prior, Zambrano, Dempster, Cedeno, Murton, Barrett) of players and a $100M payroll. If a guy like Abreu is made available, the Cubs shouldn't pass on him (or the like) because he won't help them contend this year. The Cubs are gonna try to contend in 2007 regardless. They aren't rebuilding. There's no reason they can't get a head start on 2007, by going after players like they are contenders in 2006.

 

Of course, this strategy comes with a lot of danger. The price will be higher for such a player now than it will be in the offseason.

[woodchip2153]

I'm a big Walker fan, and I'm usually not very good at this. However, I think the Angels need a second baseman, and if my memory is correct, don't they have a lot of young position prospects? Since the AL West is at around .500 they are always in the race. Does anybody else think that might be a possiblity? I hate to get rid of Walker since he is incredibly cheap for his production, but if he gets us good value in return it would be worth it.

[Electron Blue]

Cubs don't have to be like other sellers. They don't have to trade off a bunch of high-priced players and regroup. They still have a solid nucleus (Lee, Ramirez, Prior, Zambrano, Dempster, Cedeno, Murton, Barrett) of players and a $100M payroll. If a guy like Abreu is made available, the Cubs shouldn't pass on him (or the like) because he won't help them contend this year. The Cubs are gonna try to contend in 2007 regardless. They aren't rebuilding. There's no reason they can't get a head start on 2007, by going after players like they are contenders in 2006.

 

Of course, this strategy comes with a lot of danger. The price will be higher for such a player now than it will be in the offseason.

 

This is a good point - we aren't a team like Florida or Montreal in the past who needed to sell simply to make budget. But the last point you make is important, too. If we have someone who can fit into another team's '06 Playoff Plan, now's the time to hear offers.

[Roast]

If we have someone who can fit into another team's '06 Playoff Plan, now's the time to hear offers.

 

There's the key. Which is why I say we either need to trade Jacque Jones now, or hope like all hell that he keeps up these numbers untill July 31.

 

Looking at teams right field production I see Milwaukee in great need. Jenkins is sucking it up. I dont know who exactly they would be willing to give up for Jones, if anything, however. Nor do I know if we even have a reasonable fit with them.

 

Also, I looked at Abreu's OBP and cried a little on the inside.

 

Anyone wanna guess? .350? Nope

.380? Not even close

.400? No

.450? Closer

.455!!!! Thats .167 Points higher than his AVG, and nearly .100 points than our highest obp.

 

Wow. I want him.

[BigbadB]

I'm a big Walker fan, and I'm usually not very good at this. However, I think the Angels need a second baseman, and if my memory is correct, don't they have a lot of young position prospects? Since the AL West is at around .500 they are always in the race. Does anybody else think that might be a possiblity? I hate to get rid of Walker since he is incredibly cheap for his production, but if he gets us good value in return it would be worth it.

 

The Angels are trying to peddle their current 2b (Adam Kennedy), who is very comparable to Todd Walker.

 

Howie Kendrick is 22 years old, plays 2b and is hitting over .400 in Triple A and is very ready to be an everyday major leaguer.

 

The Angels also have a surplus of guys who can DH. I think it's safe to assume Walker will not become an Angel this year. And I think it's also safe to assume that the Angels would not trade a top prospect for someone who isn't much of an upgrade over Adam Kennedy.

[shnsajax]

Cubs don't have to be like other sellers. They don't have to trade off a bunch of high-priced players and regroup. They still have a solid nucleus (Lee, Ramirez, Prior, Zambrano, Dempster, Cedeno, Murton, Barrett) of players and a $100M payroll. If a guy like Abreu is made available, the Cubs shouldn't pass on him (or the like) because he won't help them contend this year. The Cubs are gonna try to contend in 2007 regardless. They aren't rebuilding. There's no reason they can't get a head start on 2007, by going after players like they are contenders in 2006.

 

Of course, this strategy comes with a lot of danger. The price will be higher for such a player now than it will be in the offseason.

 

Thank you. tired of hearing the whole sellers thing.

[anemic offense]

Nice job Roast, although I think you need to add 3 players to the "get out of town list". Pierre, Maddux, and Wood (if he'll wave NTC) all need to go. Maddux needs to go immediately before he kills the whatever trade value he has left, while the Cubs need to pray Pierre and Wood can have a period of decent play to elevate their's.

 

Maddux will be easy to unload but the other two anchors are a big ??????

[TB_11]

I do think fans who want either Pierre or Jones gone will be disappointed - if Hendry traded away either of them it would be an open admission that two of his biggest offseason moves were mistakes. While most fans would say that anyway, I can't see Hendry swallowing his pride like that.

 

Nice post Roast.

[Roast]

While most fans would say that anyway, I can't see Hendry swallowing his pride like that.

 

That is really my biggest fear. I fear that Hendry wont want to give any signs that last offseason was a failure, and not trade away the pierres and jones. Or worse, I fear that he actually believes this crap about "all these injuries..poor us" and in turn leaves the team how it is.

[A New Era]

While most fans would say that anyway, I can't see Hendry swallowing his pride like that.

 

That is really my biggest fear. I fear that Hendry wont want to give any signs that last offseason was a failure, and not trade away the pierres and jones. Or worse, I fear that he actually believes this crap about "all these injuries..poor us" and in turn leaves the team how it is.

 

"I really like the guys we've got. You just gotta give them a chance to go out on the feild, and play."

[CubinNY]

...sell, sell, sell.

[A New Era]

...sell, sell, sell.

 

Derreck Lee? Carlos Zambrano? Micheal Barret? Carlos Marmol? Ryan Dempster? Scott Eyre?

[Roast]

...sell, sell, sell.

 

Thats ridiculous. I believe Raws strategy is the best.

[TXCubsFan]

I do think fans who want either Pierre or Jones gone will be disappointed - if Hendry traded away either of them it would be an open admission that two of his biggest offseason moves were mistakes. While most fans would say that anyway, I can't see Hendry swallowing his pride like that.

 

Nice post Roast.

 

Tell me why Jones is a big mistake? Half this board wanted to spend more than $30 million to bring Brian Giles on the team. Note that Hendry might have been right about Jones and this board might have been wrong about Giles:

 

OPS

Jones .851

Giles .785

 

SLG

Cedeno .402

Giles .397

 

Platoon Jones and Murton in LF next year, and you'll have an OPS over .900 in LF.

[CoolHandLuke]

Miguel Cabrera? ^^^. If he is indeed available i believe THIS is the guy we need to go after. Hard. If all things were perfect and I ruled the world hendry would stat selling off those i listed above as "trade to whoever will take them" now for talented youth, and then turn around and send a huge package to the fish for Cabrera. Chances are though, one of two things will happen. Cabrera will stay or he'll go somewhere with a bigger minor league system for the marlins to rape.

 

I don't believe we could possibly get enoufh from the worthless "trade to whoever will take them" guys to assemble a package worthy of Cabrera. I would definately include Marshall, Hill and a couple other prospects for Cabrera though.

[BigbadB]

I do think fans who want either Pierre or Jones gone will be disappointed - if Hendry traded away either of them it would be an open admission that two of his biggest offseason moves were mistakes. While most fans would say that anyway, I can't see Hendry swallowing his pride like that.

 

Nice post Roast.

 

Tell me why Jones is a big mistake? Half this board wanted to spend more than $30 million to bring Brian Giles on the team. Note that Hendry might have been right about Jones and this board might have been wrong about Giles:

 

OPS

Jones .851

Giles .785

 

SLG

Cedeno .402

Giles .397

 

Platoon Jones and Murton in LF next year, and you'll have an OPS over .900 in LF.

 

That's some nice work, but it's not that simple. Jones plays in the NL Central, home of the:

 

3rd, 8th, 12th, 13th, 14th and 16th best pitching staffs in the NL.

 

Brian Giles plays in the NL West, home of the:

 

2nd, 4th, 6th, 7th and 9th best pitching staffs in the NL.

 

Brian Giles plays in the absolute toughest hitting park in baseball. San Fran, LA and Arizona are other tough hitters parks in his league.

 

Jacque Jones plays most of his games in arguably the best hitting division in baseball. If Brian Giles was playing for the Cubs, his numbers would be considerably better.

 

Side note: Brian Giles can get the ball back to the cut off man on the fly. :wink:

[CoolHandLuke]

I do think fans who want either Pierre or Jones gone will be disappointed - if Hendry traded away either of them it would be an open admission that two of his biggest offseason moves were mistakes. While most fans would say that anyway, I can't see Hendry swallowing his pride like that.

 

Nice post Roast.

 

Tell me why Jones is a big mistake? Half this board wanted to spend more than $30 million to bring Brian Giles on the team. Note that Hendry might have been right about Jones and this board might have been wrong about Giles:

 

OPS

Jones .851

Giles .785

 

SLG

Cedeno .402

Giles .397

 

Platoon Jones and Murton in LF next year, and you'll have an OPS over .900 in LF.

 

That's some nice work, but it's not that simple. Jones plays in the NL Central, home of the:

 

3rd, 8th, 12th, 13th, 14th and 16th best pitching staffs in the NL.

 

Brian Giles plays in the NL West, home of the:

 

2nd, 4th, 6th, 7th and 9th best pitching staffs in the NL.

 

Brian Giles plays in the absolute toughest hitting park in baseball. San Fran, LA and Arizona are other tough hitters parks in his league.

 

Jacque Jones plays most of his games in arguably the best hitting division in baseball. If Brian Giles was playing for the Cubs, his numbers would be considerably better.

 

Side note: Brian Giles can get the ball back to the cut off man on the fly. :wink:

 

I was just about to make the exact same post.

 

Giles ops away from petco is about .850 and that is while playing a good chunk of games in PacBell and Dodger Stadium.

[Roast]

 

OPS

Jones .851

Giles .785

 

SLG

Cedeno .402

Giles .397

 

Why in the world are you comparing giles slugging to our non power hitting shortstop in a conversation about Jaque jones?

 

You forgot to mention that Giles OBP is 61 points higher than Jones.

[TXCubsFan]

I do think fans who want either Pierre or Jones gone will be disappointed - if Hendry traded away either of them it would be an open admission that two of his biggest offseason moves were mistakes. While most fans would say that anyway, I can't see Hendry swallowing his pride like that.

 

Nice post Roast.

 

Tell me why Jones is a big mistake? Half this board wanted to spend more than $30 million to bring Brian Giles on the team. Note that Hendry might have been right about Jones and this board might have been wrong about Giles:

 

OPS

Jones .851

Giles .785

 

SLG

Cedeno .402

Giles .397

 

Platoon Jones and Murton in LF next year, and you'll have an OPS over .900 in LF.

 

That's some nice work, but it's not that simple. Jones plays in the NL Central, home of the:

 

3rd, 8th, 12th, 13th, 14th and 16th best pitching staffs in the NL.

 

Brian Giles plays in the NL West, home of the:

 

2nd, 4th, 6th, 7th and 9th best pitching staffs in the NL.

 

Brian Giles plays in the absolute toughest hitting park in baseball. San Fran, LA and Arizona are other tough hitters parks in his league.

 

Jacque Jones plays most of his games in arguably the best hitting division in baseball. If Brian Giles was playing for the Cubs, his numbers would be considerably better.

 

Side note: Brian Giles can get the ball back to the cut off man on the fly. :wink:

 

I was just about to make the exact same post.

 

Giles ops away from petco is about .850 and that is while playing a good chunk of games in PacBell and Dodger Stadium.

 

Hardly worth $10-11 million per year for three years at his age.

[Roast]

 

Hardly worth $10-11 million per year for three years at his age.

 

And Jock was worth 3 years 16 million?

[BigbadB]

For further proof that a players numbers suffer playing at Petco, see:

 

Cameron, Mike

Castilla, Vinny

Piazza, Mike

 

(Actually, Mike's numbers look about the same over the last several years, until you look at his home and away splits.

 

Look up anybody. Play at Petco and your offensive numbers will suffer.

 

Even Chan Ho Park can pitch well there.

[TXCubsFan]

 

Hardly worth $10-11 million per year for three years at his age.

 

And Jock was worth 3 years 16 million?

 

With a platoon partner like Murton, he could be. It wasn't as if Hendry had a lot of REALISTIC alternatives at the time. If Corey had decided to grow up a season earlier, then getting Jacque wouldn't have been such a necessity.

 

Jones hasn't been the problem with the Cubs this year. Wood, Prior, Pierre, Murton, Neifi, and Rusch have been far more culpable. At least Prior and Murton can still contribute next year.

Edited June 14, 2006 by TXCubsFan

[BigbadB]

Hardly worth $10-11 million per year for three years at his age.

 

I suppose that depends on what his .850 OPS would translate to hitting in the NL Central regulary might do.

 

Giles made his bed, he's gotta lie in it. Personally, I think he was a fool for going back to San Diego.

 

But, the bigger fool was Hendry for not courting Giles the way he courted Furcal.

 

For what he spent on Neifi, Rusch and Jones, he could have had Giles. Thank heaven we have Neifi. :roll:

[Geech]

Equivalent Average is an all-in-one offensive stat that makes adjustments for ballparks and a few other things.

 

Giles weighs in at .287 compared to Jones' .277. That's pretty close still, but Giles is likely to improve while Jones is unlikely to sustain his numbers. FYI, Giles' numbers were .328 last year and .319 career while Jones' were .258 and .259 respectively.