Marty Brennaman's Thoughts

[ManCrushOnNomar]

*sigh*

 

Even if Dunn came to the Cubs his discipline at the plate would go bye-bye. You really think Dusty and Geno would let him take so many pitches? They'd force him to be more aggressive and ruin everything that makes him a good ballplayer.

[Roast]

I'm still hoping we can trade for dunn just so you'll change your name.

[CP_414]

I don't see the Reds and Cubs being a match right now as long as the Reds are trying to contend this year.

 

On the other hand, I could see the Reds unloading Dunn in the offseason if they felt they could free up money to go after players they desire.

 

At that point, the Cubs and Reds could come to a deal.

 

 

While I agree with you, maybe there is a 3rd team that could facilitate this.

 

How about this crazy idea...

Cubs Get: Dunn

Reds Get: Todd Helton, $2M/year for the rest of his deal from Colorado, Scott Williamson (I love Helton, but the decrease in his HR numbers the past 2 years is somewhat troubling)

Rockies Get: Guzman or Hill, Aardsma, Murton, "Top 5" prospect from Reds system

 

The Cubs do this to get the high power, high OBP, high OPS bat they need between a healthy Lee and Aramis.

 

If Dunn has fallen out of favor with the Reds they do this to get Helton who has a better OBP, good glove, and has shown fantastic power in the recent past. They also add a bullpen arm to help them contend this year.

 

The Rockies get a starter to plug into the rotation, a bullpen arm they would control for 4+ years, a starting outfielder, and a good prospect in exchange for a player who really isn't helping them contend at this point.

 

 

In the offseason the Cubs can then focus on adding one of Zito/Mulder/Schmidt; and improving the bench.

 

2007 Cubs:

C Barrett

1B Lee

2B Walker

SS Cedeno

3B Aramis

LF Dunn

CF Pie

RF Jones

 

Zambrano, One of Zito/Mulder/Schmidt, Prior, Marshall, Marmol

 

6th starter either Hill or Guzman, 7th starter Gallagher or Jerome Williams.

[muntjack]

Am I the only one who likes Aramis enough to believe that he is still the 2nd best offensive 3rd baseman in the NL (Wright)?

 

Granted he started slowly again, but I think by August he will be right back in the .950 OPS range.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I don't see the Reds and Cubs being a match right now as long as the Reds are trying to contend this year.

 

On the other hand, I could see the Reds unloading Dunn in the offseason if they felt they could free up money to go after players they desire.

 

At that point, the Cubs and Reds could come to a deal.

 

 

While I agree with you, maybe there is a 3rd team that could facilitate this.

 

How about this crazy idea...

Cubs Get: Dunn

Reds Get: Todd Helton, $2M/year for the rest of his deal from Colorado, Scott Williamson (I love Helton, but the decrease in his HR numbers the past 2 years is somewhat troubling)

Rockies Get: Guzman or Hill, Aardsma, Murton, "Top 5" prospect from Reds system

 

The Cubs do this to get the high power, high OBP, high OPS bat they need between a healthy Lee and Aramis.

 

If Dunn has fallen out of favor with the Reds they do this to get Helton who has a better OBP, good glove, and has shown fantastic power in the recent past. They also add a bullpen arm to help them contend this year.

 

The Rockies get a starter to plug into the rotation, a bullpen arm they would control for 4+ years, a starting outfielder, and a good prospect in exchange for a player who really isn't helping them contend at this point.

 

 

In the offseason the Cubs can then focus on adding one of Zito/Mulder/Schmidt; and improving the bench.

 

2007 Cubs:

C Barrett

1B Lee

2B Walker

SS Cedeno

3B Aramis

LF Dunn

CF Pie

RF Jones

 

Zambrano, One of Zito/Mulder/Schmidt, Prior, Marshall, Marmol

 

6th starter either Hill or Guzman, 7th starter Gallagher or Jerome Williams.

 

If Colorado were playing poorly, that idea may work. Right now the Rockies are in the thick of the NL West race and aren't likely to trade Helton for the package you mentioned. Furthermore, the Rockies are likely going to want statements of faith from Aardsma, Guzman, and Hill. I think Murton has already expressed his Christianity so he should fit in ok.

[CP_414]

I don't see the Reds and Cubs being a match right now as long as the Reds are trying to contend this year.

 

On the other hand, I could see the Reds unloading Dunn in the offseason if they felt they could free up money to go after players they desire.

 

At that point, the Cubs and Reds could come to a deal.

 

 

While I agree with you, maybe there is a 3rd team that could facilitate this.

 

How about this crazy idea...

Cubs Get: Dunn

Reds Get: Todd Helton, $2M/year for the rest of his deal from Colorado, Scott Williamson (I love Helton, but the decrease in his HR numbers the past 2 years is somewhat troubling)

Rockies Get: Guzman or Hill, Aardsma, Murton, "Top 5" prospect from Reds system

 

The Cubs do this to get the high power, high OBP, high OPS bat they need between a healthy Lee and Aramis.

 

If Dunn has fallen out of favor with the Reds they do this to get Helton who has a better OBP, good glove, and has shown fantastic power in the recent past. They also add a bullpen arm to help them contend this year.

 

The Rockies get a starter to plug into the rotation, a bullpen arm they would control for 4+ years, a starting outfielder, and a good prospect in exchange for a player who really isn't helping them contend at this point.

 

 

In the offseason the Cubs can then focus on adding one of Zito/Mulder/Schmidt; and improving the bench.

 

2007 Cubs:

C Barrett

1B Lee

2B Walker

SS Cedeno

3B Aramis

LF Dunn

CF Pie

RF Jones

 

Zambrano, One of Zito/Mulder/Schmidt, Prior, Marshall, Marmol

 

6th starter either Hill or Guzman, 7th starter Gallagher or Jerome Williams.

 

If Colorado were playing poorly, that idea may work. Right now the Rockies are in the thick of the NL West race and aren't likely to trade Helton for the package you mentioned. Furthermore, the Rockies are likely going to want statements of faith from Aardsma, Guzman, and Hill. I think Murton has already expressed his Christianity so he should fit in ok.

 

I am just under the assumption thast the Rockies will fall out of things before July 31st. They are playing "well" now, but are still under .500 and 4.5 games back in last place in the NL West.

 

I believe Guzman wears a cross (maybe I'm thinking of someone else), dunno about Aardsma or Hill.

[Derwood]

I'll take Dunn as soon as the NL adds the DH (god forbid)

[NCCubFan]

Am I the only one who likes Aramis enough to believe that he is still the 2nd best offensive 3rd baseman in the NL (Wright)?

No, you're not. I still think he'll come around.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Am I the only one who likes Aramis enough to believe that he is still the 2nd best offensive 3rd baseman in the NL (Wright)?

 

Granted he started slowly again, but I think by August he will be right back in the .950 OPS range.

 

Don't forget Cabrerra.

[muntjack]

Am I the only one who likes Aramis enough to believe that he is still the 2nd best offensive 3rd baseman in the NL (Wright)?

 

Granted he started slowly again, but I think by August he will be right back in the .950 OPS range.

 

Don't forget Cabrerra.

 

Well, he'll be patrolling LF in Wrigley soon enough. 8)

[anemic offense]

He hits meaningless hr's.

 

There is no such thing.

 

yeah there is.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

He hits meaningless hr's.

 

There is no such thing.

 

yeah there is.

 

OK, example?

[XZero771679666304]

He hits meaningless hr's.

 

There is no such thing.

 

yeah there is.

 

If someone believes in a player hitting meaningless homers, then they must also believe in "clutch". They are opposite ends of the same spectrum.

[Yestheydo]

He hits meaningless hr's.

 

There is no such thing.

 

yeah there is.

 

OK, example?

 

There may not be "meaningless" home runs. But a late-inning hr that takes your team from a deficit to a lead (which Ken Griffey Jr. has already done, like, 3 times this year) is, to me, far more valuable than a solo homer in a game where one team or the other leads by 5+ runs. It's not meaningless, but it's not all that helpful. Like the way he turned a 9-2 game to a 9-3 game on Sunday. Almost all his homers are like that, and that's why lots of Reds fans are unimpressed with his OPS and want him gone.

[davearm]

He hits meaningless hr's.

 

There is no such thing.

 

yeah there is.

 

OK, example?

 

There may not be "meaningless" home runs. But a late-inning hr that takes your team from a deficit to a lead (which Ken Griffey Jr. has already done, like, 3 times this year) is, to me, far more valuable than a solo homer in a game where one team or the other leads by 5+ runs. It's not meaningless, but it's not all that helpful. Like the way he turned a 9-2 game to a 9-3 game on Sunday. Almost all his homers are like that, and that's why lots of Reds fans are unimpressed with his OPS and want him gone.

Exactly.

 

IMO Dunn is the king of the late-inning solo shot in the midst of a blowout.

 

If you don't like the term meaningless Pedro, then by all means choose another one that better expresses the fact that such a HR only very rarely has any bearing on the final outcome of the game.

 

Or perhaps you take the extreme literal position that all runs have equal value.

[Banedon]

Keep in mind that I don't believe in meaningless homers. That said, here's the game log for Dunn as far as games he's homered in. I've tried to be as objective as possible. Please feel free to point out any glaring mistakes. (As I'm sure you will.)

 

 

-April 3rd, Final Score Cubs 16, Reds 7 - Dunn hits a homer that puts the score at Cubs 5, Reds 4. Not meaningless.

 

-April 5th, Final Score Pirates 5, Reds 6 - Dunn hits a homer that puts the Reds up 5-3. The Pirates would end up tying the game before the Reds win it in the ninth. They would need every run. Not meaningless.

 

-April 11th, Final Score Reds 9, Cubs 2 - Dunn hits 2 homers, both solo, as part of a 6 home run output from the Reds. All runs were scored on homers for the Reds. Dunn hit the homers that put them up 2-0 and 4-0. Turned out to be a blowout, but it wasn't when he hit his homers. Not meaningless.

 

-April 13th, Final Score, Reds 8, Cubs 3 - Dunn hits a homer in the first putting the Reds up 1-0, a lead they wouldn't relinquish. Not meaningless.

 

-April 15th, Final Score, Reds 3, Cards 9 - Dunn homers in the first to put the Reds up 1-0. They would later lose the game, but the home run gave them the initial lead. Not meaningless.

 

-April 16th, Final Score, Reds 7, Cards 8 - Dunn hits a two run homer in the 5th to take the lead, 3-2. Not meaningless.

 

-April 17th, Final Score, Reds 9, Marlins 1 - Dunn hits a two run homer in the first to take the lead they wouldn't relinquish. Not meaningless.

 

-April 30th, Final Score, Houston 3, Reds 2 - Dunn hits a two run homer in the 6th to bring the Reds within a run. Not meaningless.

 

-May 2nd, Final Score, Cards 2, Reds 3 - Dunn hits a homer in the 6th, to start a comeback from a 2-0 deficit to win the game. Not meaningless.

 

-May 4th, Final Score, Reds 7, Rockies 1 - Dunn hits a homer in the 6th to take the score from 4-1 to 5-1. Meaningless.

 

-May 7th, Final Score, Reds 9, DBacks 8 - Dunn hit a two run homer in the 3rd to bump the lead to 3-0. Later he would double home the tying run in the 6th. Not meaningless.

 

-May 10th, Final Score, Nats 6, Reds 9 - Dunn hit a two run homer in the first to tie a game that they would eventually win. Not meaningless.

 

-May 19th, Final Score, Reds 9, Tigers 4 - Dunn hit a homer that put the reds up 8-0 on the way to the win. Meaningless.

 

-May 20th, Final Score, Reds 6, Tigers 7 - Dunn hit a homer that got the Reds to 2-5. Later that inning, Griffey hit a grand slam to take the lead. Would've been a tie without Dunn's homer. They'd end up losing anyway though. Not meaningless at the time it was hit.

 

-May 22nd, Final Score Brewers 5, Reds 15 - Dunn hit a 3 run homer to take the score from 1-8 to 1-11. Meaningless.

 

-May 29th, Final Score Reds 3, Cubs 7 - Dunn hit a homer to take the score from 2-6 to 3-6. Not really meaningless if anyone does anything after him, but for the sake of argument, meaningless.

 

-June 6th, Final Score Reds 7, Cards 0 - For some reason ESPN doesn't have a game log on this one.

 

-June 9th, Final Score Cubs 6, Reds 5 - Dunn hit a homer that would bring them within 1, but the couldn't ever quite catch the power crazy Cubbies. Not meaningless.

 

-June 11th, Final Score Cubs 9, Reds 3 - Dunn hit a late homer to take it from 9-2 to 9-3. Meaningless.

 

 

 

Out of 22 homers, 5 potentially meaningless ones. 6 if you count the game I don't have a log for.

 

I could live with that.

[Banedon]

But a late-inning hr that takes your team from a deficit to a lead (which Ken Griffey Jr. has already done, like, 3 times this year) is, to me, far more valuable than a solo homer in a game where one team or the other leads by 5+ runs.

 

Are you counting the homers that were hit at 0-0? Dunn has a bunch of those.

 

Almost all his homers are like that, and that's why lots of Reds fans are unimpressed with his OPS and want him gone.

 

As I think I've shown above, that's flat out not true.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

But a late-inning hr that takes your team from a deficit to a lead (which Ken Griffey Jr. has already done, like, 3 times this year) is, to me, far more valuable than a solo homer in a game where one team or the other leads by 5+ runs.

 

Are you counting the homers that were hit at 0-0? Dunn has a bunch of those.

 

Almost all his homers are like that, and that's why lots of Reds fans are unimpressed with his OPS and want him gone.

 

As I think I've shown above, that's flat out not true.

 

But hyperbole is a wonderful thing.

[Sammy Sofa]

Dunn' homers may seem "meaningless" at times, but can you really fault the guy for it? He'll blast one out, walk or strike out most of the time...that's who he is. The Reds now are like the problem the Cubs had a few years back...all power and no small ball (which is ironic since the Cubs are all small ball and no power). Smart teams find a balance (it would be a nice change of pace at Wrigley, too). Dunn could be incredibly potent on a team that has people getting on base ahead of him. The man has no control over how well the other batters ahead of him do. He does what he does, and if his team hasn't planned to utilize him the right way, well, they screwed up. Reds fans jumping all over him for hitting too many solo shots because of this is absurd.

[KaiserCesar]

Dunn' homers may seem "meaningless" at times, but can you really fault the guy for it? He'll blast one out, walk or strike out most of the time...that's who he is. The Reds now are like the problem the Cubs had a few years back...all power and no small ball (which is ironic since the Cubs are all small ball and no power). Smart teams find a balance (it would be a nice change of pace at Wrigley, too). Dunn could be incredibly potent on a team that has people getting on base ahead of him. The man has no control over how well the other batters ahead of him do. He does what he does, and if his team hasn't planned to utilize him the right way, well, they screwed up. Reds fans jumping all over him for hitting too many solo shots because of this is absurd.

 

I think the Cubs real problem as a lot of power but not a lot of OBP. They hit a lot of solo home runs and were very inconsistent. The Reds are a very good offensive ballclub, the Cubs were average.

[CubColtPacer]

Dunn' homers may seem "meaningless" at times, but can you really fault the guy for it? He'll blast one out, walk or strike out most of the time...that's who he is. The Reds now are like the problem the Cubs had a few years back...all power and no small ball (which is ironic since the Cubs are all small ball and no power). Smart teams find a balance (it would be a nice change of pace at Wrigley, too). Dunn could be incredibly potent on a team that has people getting on base ahead of him. The man has no control over how well the other batters ahead of him do. He does what he does, and if his team hasn't planned to utilize him the right way, well, they screwed up. Reds fans jumping all over him for hitting too many solo shots because of this is absurd.

 

Here's the problem with that reasoning. Let's compare Dunn to some other Reds and some other Cubs, just in RBI's with RISP. Dunn has 54 AB's with RISP, and has 21 RBI's. In comparison, Edwin Encarnacion only has 3 more AB's, and has 31 RBI's. Griffey only has 33 AB's in this situation, but has 28 RBI's.

Also, let's look at some Cubs. Jones has 24 RBI's in 49 AB's. Murton has 17 RBI's in 47 AB's, which means that Dunn is doing no better at driving anybody besides himself home than Murton is.

In summary, the problem is not that the Reds don't get on base enough for him. The problem is simply that Dunn simply doesn't hit enough to drive anybody in but himself most of the time, which is why the guy has only made it too 100 RBI's twice, and his top is 102 even while being a prodigious home run hitter.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

With or without RISP, Dunn gets on base. With those 54 ABs, he has drawn 18 walks. His BA with RISP may not be to your liking, but he's got an 860 OPS. That's still pretty good.

 

I'm not the biggest Dunn fan around, but I know enough to know that what he does offensively is much better than anything any of our outfielders do.

[Yestheydo]

Dunn' homers may seem "meaningless" at times, but can you really fault the guy for it? He'll blast one out, walk or strike out most of the time...that's who he is. The Reds now are like the problem the Cubs had a few years back...all power and no small ball (which is ironic since the Cubs are all small ball and no power). Smart teams find a balance (it would be a nice change of pace at Wrigley, too). Dunn could be incredibly potent on a team that has people getting on base ahead of him. The man has no control over how well the other batters ahead of him do. He does what he does, and if his team hasn't planned to utilize him the right way, well, they screwed up. Reds fans jumping all over him for hitting too many solo shots because of this is absurd.

 

Here's the problem with that reasoning. Let's compare Dunn to some other Reds and some other Cubs, just in RBI's with RISP. Dunn has 54 AB's with RISP, and has 21 RBI's. In comparison, Edwin Encarnacion only has 3 more AB's, and has 31 RBI's. Griffey only has 33 AB's in this situation, but has 28 RBI's.

Also, let's look at some Cubs. Jones has 24 RBI's in 49 AB's. Murton has 17 RBI's in 47 AB's, which means that Dunn is doing no better at driving anybody besides himself home than Murton is.

In summary, the problem is not that the Reds don't get on base enough for him. The problem is simply that Dunn simply doesn't hit enough to drive anybody in but himself most of the time, which is why the guy has only made it too 100 RBI's twice, and his top is 102 even while being a prodigious home run hitter.

 

That's true. Look up the OBP's of the guys hitting in front of Dunn. I'd kill for it. The number of times he fails not only to drive in runs but to move runners over or even try to go the other way is absolutely maddening.

[Banedon]

Dunn

 

Bases Loaded - 6AB - .167/.125/.333/.458

RISP 2 out - 24AB - .167/.310/.458/.769

RISP - 54AB - .148/.360/.500/.860

Runners On - 89AB - .180/.359/.461/.820

"Close and Late" - 28AB - .250/.417/.357/.774

Nobody on base - 128AB - .273/.411/.664/1.075

 

The batting average isn't terribly surprising to me, as they are probably throwing him a whole lot less to hit while men are on base. With the exception of bases loaded (only 6 AB), his OBP and OPS are still just fine though. He's been pretty "clutch" in close and late games as well.

 

Just for fun, I thought I'd post these too.

 

Batting #2 - 13AB - .308/.357/.923/1.280

Batting #3 - 67AB - .209/.312/.582/.894

Batting #4 - 86AB - .233/.407/.523/.930

Batting #5 - 42AB - .238/.441/.500/.941

Batting #6 - 9AB - .333/.500/1.000/1.500

 

Fact is...you get Dunn for what he is. A flat out power hitter. I think Cincy would be nuts for trading him personally.

[Banedon]

By the way...this years RISP numbers for Dunn are down from his average. Distinctly possible that he's just not having a good year with RISP.

 

2006 .180/.359/.461/.820

2005 .244/.437/.560/.997

2004 .239/.438/.514/.952

3yr Avg .245/.424/.526/.950